FICC日报 | 2025-12-31 融资余额创新高，股指震荡修复 市场分析 国补政策继续。宏观方面，2026年国补方案正式发布，国家发改委、财政部印发《关于2026年实施大规模设备更 新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，同时下达首批625亿元资金支持消费品以旧换新。2026年国补对象新增智能眼 镜、智能家居等智能产品，剔除家装、电动自行车两大类。购买新车按车价补贴12%或10%，补贴上限仍延续2025 年标准（即2万元或1.5万元）。家电国补范围缩小，限定为冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等6类产品， 一级能效家电补贴比例从此前20%降至15%，每件家电补贴最高额度从2000元降至1500元。海外方面，美联储公布 的12月会议纪要显示， FOMC在12月会议上同意降息，但官员们分歧严重。一些与会者表示，根据他们的经济展 望，在本次会议下调利率区间后，可能需要在一段时间内保持目标利率区间不变。纪要同时显示，如果通胀如预 期般逐步下降，大多数官员认为进一步降息是合适的。委员们一致认为，准备金余额已经下降到充足的水平，委 员会将根据需要开始购买短期国债，以持续保持充足的准备金供应。他们还同意取消对常备回购操作 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, each stock index fluctuated and rose, with CSI 1000 and CSI 500 leading the gains. The total market turnover of the stock market was 192.18 billion yuan, an increase of 2.46 billion yuan from the previous day. In the medium - to - long term, the positive policy expectations and the trend of capital inflows together form the medium - to - long - term support for the stock index. Currently, positive policy expectations are gradually fermenting. With the appreciation of the RMB, a large number of relatively high - interest time deposits will mature next year, and their "reallocation" may bring a large amount of incremental funds into the stock market. In the short term, the liquidity of the capital market is tightening near the end of the year, policy incremental signals are not yet clear, and the stock index is approaching its previous high, which may cause short - term disturbances. In general, the stock index will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. For options, the current position PCR and implied volatility are both within the normal range, and a bull spread or ratio spread with a mild bullish view can be adopted [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On December 25, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.26% to close at 3.107; 300ETF (SSE) rose 0.19% to close at 4.766; 300ETF (SZSE) rose 0.17% to close at 4.840; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.18% to close at 4642.54; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.97% to close at 7579.38; 500ETF (SSE) rose 0.86% to close at 7.534; 500ETF (SZSE) rose 0.81% to close at 2.974; the GEM ETF rose 0.31% to close at 3.222; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.09% to close at 3.475; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.25% to close at 3032.84; the STAR 50ETF fell 0.07% to close at 1.42; the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 0.15% to close at 1.38 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on December 25, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided in detail, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, GEM ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in January 2026 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided, such as 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, GEM ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [7][8]. 3.2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SSE 50ETF, the volatility chart of SSE 50ETF options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [9][11][13][15][19]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SSE 300ETF, the volatility chart of SSE 300ETF options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [21][23][25][27][29][31]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SZSE 300ETF, the volatility chart of SZSE 300ETF options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [34][36][38][40][42][45]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include the trend chart of the CSI 300 index, the volatility chart of CSI 300 index options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [46][48][50][52][54][56]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include the trend chart of the CSI 1000 index, the volatility chart of CSI 1000 index options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [59][62][63][64][66][68]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SSE 500ETF, the volatility chart of SSE 500ETF options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [73][75][77][79][81][83]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of SZSE 500ETF, the volatility chart of SZSE 500ETF options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [86][88][90][92][94][95]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of GEM ETF, the volatility chart of GEM ETF options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [99][101][103][105][106][109]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of Shenzhen 100ETF, the volatility chart of Shenzhen 100ETF options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [111][113][115][117][119][121]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include the trend chart of the SSE 50 index, the volatility chart of SSE 50 index options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [124][126][128][130][132][134]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of STAR 50ETF, the volatility chart of STAR 50ETF options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [137][138][139][140][142][144]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Include the trend chart of E Fund STAR 50ETF, the volatility chart of E Fund STAR 50ETF options, the trading volume PCR chart, the position PCR chart, the implied volatility curve chart, and the chart of at - the - money implied volatility for each term [145][146][148][149].

长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 股指会议扰动暂歇，债市 或震荡运行 2025-12-22 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 金融期货策略建议 重点数据跟踪 目 录 0102 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 p 策略展望：区间震荡。 p 风险提示：特朗普政策实施节奏与力度，美国经济数据暴雷，美联储降息节奏，地缘政治 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：上证指数上涨0.36%，报3890.45点。四大股指均上涨，IC表现相对最好。 p 核心观点：美联储主席之争进入白热化：报道称沃勒在美联储主席面试中表现"出色" 、获企业高管支 持，华尔街人士一直为沃什游说，特朗普关注重点或转向就业市场。美联储"三把手"威廉姆斯：没有 进一步降息的紧迫性，11月CPI数据存在一定失真。日本央行如期加息25基点，并称若经济和物价前景 实现将继续加息。植田强调未来"审慎行事" ，日元盘中跌超1%，交易员押注下次加息或需等至明年9 月。乌代表团周五到周日与美欧举行系列会议，美特使称"富有成效 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 股市成交缩量，股指震荡下跌 核心观点 今日各股指均震荡下跌。股市全市场成交额 1.75 万亿元，较上日成 交额缩量 463 亿元。近期股市成交量能缩量，主要是因为市场驱动力量表 现不足，资金交投热情回落。中央经济工作会议延续了更加积极的财政政 策以及适度宽松的货币政策的表述，但是在总量政策上并未超预期，表述 上由"超常规逆周期"转向"逆周期和跨周期并重"，这意味着在 2026 年总量政策仍会托底，但更加兼顾调结构，政策发力向内循环的消费和科 技倾斜。另外由于完成今年经济增长目标的压力较小，年内政策加码的动 力不足，政策的发力点预计在明年一季度，短期内政策利好的动能有所不 足，股指存在震荡整固的需求。目前股指仍然处于震荡区间内，不过后市 随着政策利好预期不断发酵，市场风险偏好将逐渐回升。总的来说，短期 内股指以区间震荡为主。 期权方面，考虑到股指中长线向上，可以牛市价差或者比例价差温和 看涨的思路对待。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and consolidated. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 1.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 126 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The policy side indicated that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, sending out positive signals [4]. - The expectation of policy benefits is gradually fermenting, and market risk appetite is rising. However, it is still necessary to wait for more policy details to be introduced in the subsequent Central Economic Work Conference. In the short term, due to the strong resilience of macro - economic data and the fact that the Politburo meeting's statement on aggregate policies did not exceed expectations, the stock indices still need to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term and are currently within the fluctuation range [4]. - Overall, the expectation of policy benefits is gradually fermenting, and in the short term, the stock indices will mainly fluctuate strongly. For options, considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, a bull spread or ratio spread strategy with a mild bullish view can be adopted [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1 Option Indicators - **Stock Index Performance**: On December 10, 2025, the 50ETF fell 0.32% to close at 3.132; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.13% to close at 4.702; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.17% to close at 4.775; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.14% to close at 4591.83; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.37% to close at 7408.24; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.54% to close at 7.263; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.56% to close at 2.860; the GEM ETF rose 0.13% to close at 3.192; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.23% to close at 3.475; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.31% to close at 2988.64; the STAR 50ETF rose 0.07% to close at 1.42; the E Fund STAR 50ETF remained unchanged at 1.37 [6]. - **Volume PCR and Open Interest PCR**: The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options changed compared to the previous trading day. For example, the volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 85.15 (previous day: 79.26), and the open interest PCR was 97.51 (previous day: 100.45) [7]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The implied volatility and 30 - day historical volatility of the 2025 December at - the - money options of various options were reported. For instance, the implied volatility of the SSE 50ETF options' 2025 December at - the - money options was 11.35%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 11.09% [8]. 2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Charts include the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [10][11][12]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Charts cover the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [21][22][23]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Charts involve the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [33][34][35]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Charts include the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [36][37][38]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Charts cover the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [49][50][51]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Charts involve the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [62][63][64]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Charts include the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [75][76][77]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Charts cover the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [88][89][90]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Charts involve the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [101][102][103]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Charts include the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [115][116][117]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Charts cover the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [128][129][130]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Charts involve the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [135][136][137].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and slightly declined. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 1.92 trillion yuan, a decrease of 134 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The Political Bureau meeting pointed out that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented. The expectation of policy benefits continues to ferment, driving up the market's risk appetite. However, near the end of the year, the power of capital to drive the market to break through is insufficient, and there is still a need for short - term shock consolidation. Currently, the stock indices remain within the previous shock range. Subsequently, as more policy details are introduced at the Central Economic Work Conference, the expectation of policy benefits will gradually become the main line of the market, and the capital inflow is expected to continue, driving the stock indices to have a spring market. In general, the expectation of policy benefits is gradually fermenting, and the stock indices will be mainly fluctuating strongly in the short term. [3] - Regarding options, considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, a bull spread or ratio spread with a moderately bullish approach can be adopted. [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On December 9, 2025, the 50ETF fell 0.70% to close at 3.142; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.51% to close at 4.708; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.54% to close at 4.783; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.51% to close at 4598.22; the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.57% to close at 7380.58; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.74% to close at 7.224; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.80% to close at 2.844; the ChiNext ETF rose 0.54% to close at 3.188; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.29% to close at 3.467; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.71% to close at 2997.96; the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF fell 0.42% to close at 1.41; the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF fell 0.36% to close at 1.37. [5] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on December 9, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided in detail, such as the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options being 79.26 (previous day: 78.66), and the position PCR being 101.14 (previous day: 107.67). [6] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in December 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options are presented, for example, the implied volatility of at - the - money options of SSE 50ETF options in December 2025 is 11.44%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 11.04%. [7][8] 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report provides a series of charts for different types of options, including the trends, volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms for options such as SSE 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, etc. [9][20][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inter - bank market liquidity remains loose, with the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions staying around 1.32%. The November LPR quotes remain unchanged [4]. - The stock index rose and then fell yesterday, showing an overall volatile performance. It is expected that market differences will be gradually digested during the stock index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The bottom - fishing effect of Central Huijin provides a certain buffer, and the downside risk of the index is generally controllable. The recent market adjustment offers an opportunity to lay out for the further rise of the stock index next year [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.31%, down 0.04bp; DR007 at 1.45%, down 2.79bp; GC001 at 1.38%, down 6.50bp; GC007 at 1.52%, down 1.00bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.58%, up 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.35%, down 0.60bp; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.57%, up 0.20bp; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.84%, down 0.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.00%, down 1.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 356.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 300 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment for the day was 56.4 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4515, down 0.05%; the SSE 50 at 2972, up 0.02%; the CSI 500 at 6951.3, down 0.2%; the CSI 1000 at 7257.5, up 0.12%. The trading volume of the two stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1.7098 trillion yuan, a decrease of 73.6 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with papermaking, batteries, consumer electronics, photovoltaic equipment, and chemical raw materials sectors leading the gains, while cultural media, cement building materials, Internet services, pharmaceutical commerce, and gaming sectors leading the losses [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF volume was 100,893, up 3.7%; IF open interest was 264,196, up 1.9%; IH volume was 42,497, up 19.7%; IH open interest was 92,285, up 7.0%; IC volume was 112,976, up 5.6%; IC open interest was 254,570, up 2.2%; IM volume was 183,443, up 3.3%; IM open interest was 364,043, up 0.8% [5]. 3.3 Futures Contract Premium and Discount - **IF**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 8.38%, 6.21%, 3.95%, and 3.99% respectively [7]. - **IH**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 5.51%, 3.70%, 1.81%, and 1.63% respectively [7]. - **IC**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 13.15%, 11.90%, 10.34%, and 11.10% respectively [7]. - **IM**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 17.93%, 15.48%, 13.47%, and 13.25% respectively [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The inter - bank market liquidity remains loose, with the central repurchase rates of major tenors moving down. The LPR quotes remained unchanged in November. The stock index rebounded, and it is expected that market differences will be gradually digested through index fluctuations this year. In the short term, the index will mainly operate in a volatile manner, and the downside risk is expected to be controllable. Short - term attention can be paid to overseas liquidity change signals and whether domestic policies will take effect in advance [4][6] Summary by Relevant Content Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.32 with a - 0.05bp change, DR007 at 1.45 with a - 1.62bp change, GC001 at 1.42 with a 0.00bp change, GC007 at 1.53 with a - 2.50bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with a 0.00bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.34 with a - 0.10bp change, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.55 with a 1.30bp change, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.81 with a - 0.30bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.04 with a - 2.00bp change [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%. 4075 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan [3] Stock Index Data - **Index Closing Prices and Changes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4490, up 0.95%; the SSE 50 at 2968, up 0.60%; the CSI 500 at 6954.6, up 1.25%; the CSI 1000 at 7249.9, up 1.31%. The trading volume of the two markets reached 18121 billion yuan, an increase of 844 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors generally rose, with education, gaming, precious metals and others leading the gains, while the shipbuilding sector fell sharply [5] - **Futures Contracts**: For the IF contract, the closing price was 4473, up 0.9%, the trading volume was 108933 with a - 4.2% change, and the open interest was 264574 with a - 1.5% change; for the IH contract, the closing price was 2959, up 0.5%, the trading volume was 43866 with a - 2.0% change, and the open interest was 88482 with a - 1.1% change; for the IC contract, the closing price was 6900, up 1.1%, the trading volume was 134717 with a 2.1% change, and the open interest was 258131 with a 2.1% change; for the IM contract, the closing price was 7172, up 1.1%, the trading volume was 213192 with a - 4.8% change, and the open interest was 367936 with a - 2.5% change [5] Futures Premium and Discount - **IF Premium and Discount**: The current - month contract was 5.89%, the next - month contract was 5.19%, the current - quarter contract was 3.28%, and the next - quarter contract was 3.58% - **IH Premium and Discount**: The current - month contract was 4.61%, the next - month contract was 3.31%, the current - quarter contract was 1.52%, and the next - quarter contract was 1.37% - **IC Premium and Discount**: The current - month contract was 11.94%, the next - month contract was 10.90%, the current - quarter contract was 9.98%, and the next - quarter contract was 10.80% - **IM Premium and Discount**: The current - month contract was 16.35%, the next - month contract was 14.19%, the current - quarter contract was 12.96%, and the next - quarter contract was 12.81% [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank carried out 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 110 billion yuan on the day. The 11 - month LPR quote remained unchanged, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [3][4]. - The market sentiment was cautious, with the stock index oscillating and closing down. The macro - level is a mix of positives and negatives. The market lacks a core driving force, and there are differences in market expectations. The stock index is expected to continue the oscillating pattern with support at the bottom and pressure upwards [6]. 3. Key Points by Category Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a net investment of 110 billion yuan after 190 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3]. - The 11 - month LPR remained unchanged, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.5%. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - Interest rates of various varieties changed, such as DRO01 at 1.37% (- 5.67bp), DR007 at 1.49% (- 2.74bp), etc. [3] Stock Index and Market Conditions - The stock indexes fell, with the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 down 0.51% to 4564.9, the Shanghai 50 down 0.4% to 3008.3, the CSI 500 down 0.85% to 7061.9, and the CSI 1000 down 0.63% to 7340.4. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.7082 trillion yuan, a decrease of 17.7 billion yuan [6]. - The market sentiment was cautious, and the stock index oscillated and closed down. The market lacks a core driving force, and there are differences in market expectations. The stock index is expected to continue the oscillating pattern [6]. Futures Market - Futures prices of different varieties changed, such as IF down 0.6%, IH down 0.3%, IC down 0.7%, and IM down 0.6%. Trading volumes and open interests also had different changes [5]. - The premium and discount rates of different futures contracts varied, for example, IF's premium rate for the current - month contract was 55.56%, and IH's discount rate for the current - month contract was - 3.76% [7].

重要资讯 1. 美国10月18日当周首次申请失业救济人数23.2万，政府关门致官方报告持续缺席以来首次公布。"小非 农"ADP周度就业数据：截至11月1日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周减少2500人。 股指期货日报 2025年11月19日 廖臣悦(投资咨询证号：Z0022951) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 外围扰动下股指走势分化，大盘股指终结三连跌 市场回顾 今日股指走势分化，大盘股指收涨，中小盘股指收跌。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落2001.59亿元。期指方 面，IF、IH缩量上涨，IC缩量下跌， IM放量下跌。 2.外交部：如日方拒不撤回涉台错误言论 一切后果由日方承担。 核心观点 今日股指走势分化，受中日关系紧张影响，具有防御属性的大盘股指表现较优，军工及水产板块领涨。期指 成交量加权平均基差则与标的股指表现相反，IF、IH贴水加深，IC、IM贴水收敛，市场资金博弈特征延续。 当前资金止盈意愿增强对股指形成压制，政策利好预期对股指形成支撑，短期股指预计维持上有压力下有支 撑的震荡格局，中日关系继续僵持的情况下，大盘股指或延续优势。关注本周将恢复公布的美国经济数据及 英伟达Q ...