投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | C | 宏观金融数据日报 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 期货执业证号:F3074875: 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 2026/2/9 | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (bp) | | | (bp) | | 174 | DR001 | 1.28 | -4.41 | DR007 | 1.46 | -2.08 | | T | GC001 | 1.29 | -13.50 | GC007 | 1.60 | 2.50 | | J | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | -0.05 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 2 | 1年期国债 | 1.32 | 0.44 | 5年期国债 | 1.56 | -0.69 | | 1 | 10年期国债 | 1.81 | -0.41 | 10年期美债 | 4.22 | 1.00 | 回顾:央行上周开展的逆回购操作中,包括4055亿元7天期逆回购操作 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the stock index was weakly volatile in the morning and rallied significantly in the afternoon, with the Shanghai 50 leading the gains driven by the coal and real estate sectors. The macro news was calm, precious metal prices rebounded, and market sentiment improved. In the short - term, it's necessary to focus on whether the panic caused by overseas liquidity tightening can be effectively alleviated. After the volume - shrinking rebound, the stock index is expected to consolidate through oscillations. In the long - run, in the context of low interest rates and "asset shortage", domestic market funds are generally abundant, and as the economy is in the bottom - building process, the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rates and Bond Market - Interest rates: DR001 closed at 1.32% with a 0.32bp increase; DR007 at 1.49% with a 0.57bp decrease; GC001 at 1.48% with a 12.50bp decrease; GC007 at 1.57% with a 3.50bp decrease; SHBOR 3M at 1.58% with a 0.13bp decrease; LPR 5 - year at 3.50% unchanged [3]. - Bond yields: 1 - year treasury bond at 1.30% with a 0.01bp decrease; 5 - year at 1.51% with a 0.25bp decrease; 10 - year at 1.81% with a 0.15bp increase; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.28% with a 1.00bp decrease [3]. - Central bank operations: The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 3775 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 3025 billion yuan. This week, 17615 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 7000 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Wednesday [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - Stock index futures prices: IF当月 closed at 4699 with a 0.9% increase; IH当月 at 3072 with a 1.3% increase; IC当月 at 8321 with a 0.3% increase; IM当月 at 8230 with a 0.2% increase [3][5][10]. - Stock index prices: The CSI 300 rose 0.83% to 4698.7; the SSE 50 rose 1.14% to 3069.2; the CSI 500 rose 0.15% to 8299.1; the CSI 1000 fell 0.02% to 8207.1 [5]. - Trading volume and open interest: IF volume decreased by 21.8%, open interest by 5.6%; IH volume by 17.5%, open interest by 6.9%; IC volume by 18.1%, open interest by 2.9%; IM volume by 11.4%, open interest by 0.5% [5][10]. - Market turnover: The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 623 billion yuan from the previous day [5]. - Industry performance: Most industry sectors rose. The coal, photovoltaic equipment, airport, glass fiber, mining, and real estate development sectors led the gains, while the precious metal, cultural media, gaming, internet service, and semiconductor sectors led the losses [5]. 3.3 Stock Index Futures Basis - IF basis: - 0.06% for the current - month contract, 0.90% for the next - month contract, 1.94% for the current - quarter contract, 3.01% for the next - quarter contract [7]. - IH basis: - 1.75% for the current - month contract, - 0.69% for the next - month contract, 0.30% for the current - quarter contract, 1.71% for the next - quarter contract [7]. - IC basis: - 6.03% for the current - month contract, - 1.45% for the next - month contract, 2.71% for the current - quarter contract, 3.78% for the next - quarter contract [7]. - IM basis: - 6.36% for the current - month contract, 0.38% for the next - month contract, 5.33% for the current - quarter contract, 6.27% for the next - quarter contract [7].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 = 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2026/2/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | | | | | | | (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.36 | 3.65 | DR007 | 1.49 | -10.20 | | नि | GC001 | 1.78 | 17.50 | GC007 | 1.64 | 3.00 | | E | | | | | | | | | SHBOR 3M | 1.59 | -0.01 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.30 | 0.50 | 5年期国债 | 1.57 | -0.10 | | 场 | | | | | | | | | 10年期国债 | 1.81 | 0.10 | 10年期美债 | 4.26 | 2. ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监详可【2012】31号 宏观金融数据日报 | 国贸期货研究院 | 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2026/1/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | DRO01 | 1.36 | -0.39 | DR007 | 1.59 | 4.28 | | GC001 1 | 1.60 | 12.50 | GC007 | 1.62 | 1.50 | | SHBOR 3M 1 | 1.59 | -0.37 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 1年期国债 2 | 1.29 | -0.50 | 5年期国债 | 1.58 | 0.50 | | 10年期国债 1 | 1.82 | 0.35 | 10年期美债 | 4.26 | 2.00 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了3540亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1.40%,投标 量3540亿元,中标量3540亿元。当日2102亿元逆回 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's rate cuts and policy adjustments aim to support economic structural transformation and optimization [4] - In 2025, the domestic economy showed a "high - front, low - back" trend, and in 2026, the economic growth pressure in the first half of the year is relatively large, so there is a need for policies to be implemented earlier [6] - The upward trend of stock indices is expected to continue as the current capital - driven force is strong and the domestic fundamentals are in the bottom - building stage, and long - term bulls can choose the right time to enter the market [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a - 0.17bp change, DR007 at 1.48 with a 3.42bp change, etc. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 7.00bp to 4.24 [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 1793 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 99 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1694 billion yuan [3] - **Stock Index Futures**: IF当月 closed at 4733 with a 0.1% change, IH当月 at 3076 with a - 0.1% change, etc. Trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 22.2, 28.5, 11.3, and 14.8 respectively, while IC and IM's open interest increased by 2.0% and 0.3% respectively [5] - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.05% to 4734.5, the Shanghai 50 fell 0.12% to 3075.9, etc. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 27325 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 3243 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5] - **GDP Data**: The annual GDP in 2025 was 1401879 billion yuan, a 5.0% increase year - on - year. The Q4 GDP increased 4.5% year - on - year, 0.3 percentage points slower than Q3 [6] 3.2 Policy Hot - Comments - The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, adjusted the re - loan interest rates, and increased the quota of agricultural and small - business re - loans by 5000 billion yuan, with a 10000 - billion - yuan special quota for private enterprises [4] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Basis - The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM for different contracts are presented, such as IF's basis rate for the current - month contract is 0.40%, etc. [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's adjustment of structural monetary policy tools, including interest rate cuts and increased support for agriculture, small businesses, and private enterprises, aims to optimize the economic structure [5]. - The stock index market is currently experiencing short - term adjustments due to policy regulations, but the upward trend is expected to continue as the current strong capital - driven force and the domestic fundamentals in the bottom - building stage suggest that the upward pattern of the stock index has not ended. Long - term investors can consider long - term bullish positions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Money Market - DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a - 4.73bp change, DR007 at 1.44 with a - 5.94bp change, GC001 at 1.22 with a - 14.50bp change, and GC007 at 1.53 with a 0.50bp change. SHBOR 3M was 1.60 with no change, and LPR 5 - year was 3.50 with no change. 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds had respective changes of - 1.66bp, - 0.98bp, and - 0.34bp, while 10 - year US bonds rose 7.00bp [4]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 9515 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1387 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net injection of 8128 billion yuan. Also, 6000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase matured, and the central bank carried out 9000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations [4]. 3.2. Structural Monetary Policy Adjustments - On January 15, 2026, the central bank announced a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools. The one - year interest rate of various re - loans dropped to 1.25%, and other term - based interest rates were adjusted accordingly. The central bank also increased the amount of re - loans for agriculture and small businesses by 5000 billion yuan, and set up a 1 - trillion - yuan special re - loan for private enterprises, mainly supporting small and medium - sized private enterprises [5]. 3.3. Stock Index Market - The closing prices of major indices on a certain day: the CSI 300 was 4732 with a - 0.41% change, the SSE 50 was 3080 with a - 0.83% change, the CSI 500 was 8233 with a 0.11% change, and the CSI 1000 was 8233 with a - 0.10% change. The corresponding index futures also had different changes [5]. - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 0.57% to 4731.9, the SSE 50 fell 1.74% to 3079.8, the CSI 500 rose 2.18% to 8232.7, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.27% to 8232.7. The market liquidity remained abundant, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 6131.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the margin trading balance hitting a new high [5]. - Policy regulations led to short - term adjustments in the stock index market. The increase in the margin ratio for margin trading by exchanges and the large - scale selling of broad - based index ETFs by Central Huijin affected the market. However, considering the strong capital - driven force and the domestic fundamentals in the bottom - building stage, the upward trend of the stock index is expected to continue [6]. 3.4. Index Futures Basis - For the IF contract, the basis for the next - month contract was 1.42%, the current - quarter contract was 1.10%, and the next - quarter contract was 2.63%. For the IH contract, it was - 0.44%, - 0.90%, and 0.08% respectively. For the IC contract, it was 0.76%, 1.62%, and 4.79%, and for the IM contract, it was 1.04%, 3.89%, and 7.40% [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The capital market tightened slightly this week, with the weighted average interest rate of DR001 rising to around 1.39%. The central bank's open - market operations had a total of 13,236 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities this week. [4] - The three - market trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reached 39,872 billion yuan, a significant increase of 2,881 billion yuan from the previous day, hitting a new record high. Industry sectors showed more gains than losses. [6] - On January 19, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges will increase the margin ratio for margin trading to curb excessive speculation. In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue rising after shock adjustment. In 2026, multiple positive factors such as macro - policy support, inflation recovery, low - interest environment, technological progress, and capital - market reform are expected to support the A - share market. It is recommended that investors hold long positions for the long - term. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Money Market - **Interest Rate Changes**: DRO01 closed at 1.39% with a 0.07bp increase; DR007 at 1.57% with a 1.94bp increase; GC001 at 1.52% with a 5.00bp increase; GC007 at 1.58% with a 1.50bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.60% with no change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50% with no change; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.27% with a 0.77bp increase; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.63% with a - 0.75bp decrease; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.85% with a - 0.74bp decrease; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.18% with a - 1.00bp decrease. [4] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 240.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on the previous day, with the same bid, winning, and operation rate of 1.40%, achieving a net injection of 212.2 billion yuan. [4] 3.2 Stock Market - **Stock Index Performance**: The CSI 300 fell 0.4% to 4741.9; the SSE 50 fell 0.67% to 3112.1; the CSI 500 rose 1.04% to 8227.7; the CSI 1000 rose 0.66% to 8257.2. [6] - **Futures Contracts**: For futures contracts like IF, IH, IC, and IM, there were changes in both prices and trading volumes. For example, IF's trading volume increased by 20.6%, and its holding volume increased by 4.0%. [6] - **Industry Performance**: Internet services, software development, cultural media, communication equipment, mining, and precious metals sectors led the gains, while energy metals, insurance, banking, and airport sectors led the losses. [6] 3.3 Futures Market - **Futures Ascending/Descending Water Situation**: The ascending/descending water rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods (current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter) are presented, such as IF's current - month contract with an ascending water rate of 16.67%. [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The short - term upward trend of stock indices is expected to continue, and the bullish view on stock indices in 2026 persists. Investors are advised to mainly go long and prioritize far - month contracts due to their higher discount advantages [8] Summary According to Related Content Money Market - DRO01 closed at 1.33 with a 5.43bp increase, DR007 at 1.49 with a 1.75bp increase, GC001 at 1.58 with a 23.50bp increase, GC007 at 1.59 with a 6.00bp increase, SHBOR 3M at 1.60 with a 0.30bp increase, and LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change. The 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds closed at 1.30, 1.64, and 1.87 respectively, with decreases of 4.63bp, 1.12bp, and 1.38bp. The 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.18 with a 1.00bp decrease [4] - The central bank conducted 86.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 50 billion yuan of repurchase maturities, the net injection was 36.1 billion yuan [4] - This week, there are 1323.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the central bank's open market, and there will also be 110 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase maturities on Thursday and 6 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturities on Friday. After the holiday, the inter - bank market funds remained loose, and the weighted average interest rate of DR001 slightly increased and hovered around 1.3% [5] Stock Index Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4790 with a 0.65% increase, the SSE 50 at 3144 with a 0.30% increase, the CSI 500 at 8249 with a 2.39% increase, and the CSI 1000 at 8357 with a 2.80% increase. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 3645 billion yuan, a significant increase of nearly 500 billion yuan from the previous trading day, setting a record high for A - share trading volume [7] - The trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts increased by 5.2%, 0.6%, 7.7%, and 20.5% respectively, while the positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed by 0.9%, - 1.2%, - 2.4%, and 2.5% respectively [7] - The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed different levels of premium and discount rates in different periods. For example, the IF current - month contract had a premium rate of 0.98%, and the IC current - month contract had a discount rate of - 27.29% [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inter - bank market liquidity remains loose, with the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions staying around 1.32%. The November LPR quotes remain unchanged [4]. - The stock index rose and then fell yesterday, showing an overall volatile performance. It is expected that market differences will be gradually digested during the stock index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The bottom - fishing effect of Central Huijin provides a certain buffer, and the downside risk of the index is generally controllable. The recent market adjustment offers an opportunity to lay out for the further rise of the stock index next year [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.31%, down 0.04bp; DR007 at 1.45%, down 2.79bp; GC001 at 1.38%, down 6.50bp; GC007 at 1.52%, down 1.00bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.58%, up 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.35%, down 0.60bp; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.57%, up 0.20bp; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.84%, down 0.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.00%, down 1.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 356.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 300 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment for the day was 56.4 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4515, down 0.05%; the SSE 50 at 2972, up 0.02%; the CSI 500 at 6951.3, down 0.2%; the CSI 1000 at 7257.5, up 0.12%. The trading volume of the two stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1.7098 trillion yuan, a decrease of 73.6 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with papermaking, batteries, consumer electronics, photovoltaic equipment, and chemical raw materials sectors leading the gains, while cultural media, cement building materials, Internet services, pharmaceutical commerce, and gaming sectors leading the losses [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF volume was 100,893, up 3.7%; IF open interest was 264,196, up 1.9%; IH volume was 42,497, up 19.7%; IH open interest was 92,285, up 7.0%; IC volume was 112,976, up 5.6%; IC open interest was 254,570, up 2.2%; IM volume was 183,443, up 3.3%; IM open interest was 364,043, up 0.8% [5]. 3.3 Futures Contract Premium and Discount - **IF**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 8.38%, 6.21%, 3.95%, and 3.99% respectively [7]. - **IH**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 5.51%, 3.70%, 1.81%, and 1.63% respectively [7]. - **IC**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 13.15%, 11.90%, 10.34%, and 11.10% respectively [7]. - **IM**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 17.93%, 15.48%, 13.47%, and 13.25% respectively [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank will have 11220 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations due this week, and there will be 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposits due on Thursday. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to keep social financing conditions relatively loose and promote a reasonable recovery of prices [4]. - Yesterday, the macro news was calm, and the stock index showed a differentiated trend. Small and medium - cap stocks were relatively weak, while large - cap stocks were more resilient. The market is in a state of long - short interweaving, lacking a core driving force. The stock index is expected to continue the volatile pattern with support at the bottom and pressure upwards. Short - term market differences will be digested during the volatility, waiting for a new driving force to push the index up [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Market - DRO01 closed at 1.42%, down 10.66bp; DR007 closed at 1.51%, down 1.08bp; GC001 closed at 1.63%, down 6.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.51%, down 5.00bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58%, unchanged; LPR 5 - year was 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond yield was 1.40%, down 0.30bp; 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.81%, up 0.40bp; 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.12%, down 1.00bp [3]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 11220 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchase due, resulting in a net investment of 6262 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - Yesterday, the CSI 300 rose 0.44% to 4588.3; the SSE 50 rose 0.58% to 3020.3; the CSI 500 fell 0.4% to 7122.7; the CSI 1000 fell 0.82% to 7387.2. The trading volume of the two markets was 17259 billion yuan, a decrease of 2002 billion yuan from the previous day. The industry sectors had more decliners than gainers [5]. - The IF contract had a trading volume of 122613, up 0.6%, and an open interest of 272167, down 2.3%; the IH contract had a trading volume of 53539, down 2.2%, and an open interest of 95237, down 2.5%; the IC contract had a trading volume of 132592, down 1.4%, and an open interest of 248512, down 2.2%; the IM contract had a trading volume of 227467, up 4.5%, and an open interest of 364139, up 0.6% [5]. 3.3 Futures Premium and Discount Situation - The IF premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 19.46%, 6.12%, 3.69%, and 3.73% respectively; the IH premium rates were 14.19%, 3.77%, 1.39%, and 1.38% respectively; the IC premium rates were 15.75%, 11.61%, 10.48%, and 11.09% respectively; the IM premium rates were - 7.88%, 14.66%, 13.00%, and 12.79% respectively [7].