Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, leading to a decrease in expectations for a rate cut in December, which has resulted in significant market volatility [1][2]. Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline of over 3% on November 14, with spot gold reaching a high of $4,211.06 per ounce before falling to a low of $4,032.10, ultimately closing at $4,085.11, down $86.25 or 2.07% for the day. However, it still recorded a weekly gain of $84.20 or 2.1% [1]. - Analysts express concerns that gold's failure to break through the key resistance level of $4,200 may require a longer period of consolidation before attempting to challenge historical highs [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold indicates significant downward pressure, with the critical support level at $4,000. If this level holds, gold may experience a period of consolidation; if it breaks, further declines to $3,930 or even $3,886 may occur [2][4]. - A head-and-shoulders pattern has formed on the hourly chart, suggesting that if gold cannot regain levels above $4,150, further downward movement is likely. Short positions are recommended if resistance is encountered around $4,110 to $4,120 [4][5]. Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include shorting gold on rebounds to $4,110-$4,120 with a target of $4,080-$4,060, and buying on dips around $4,035-$4,040 with a target of $4,060-$4,080 [5]. - Emphasis is placed on strict risk management, including setting stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses [5][6]. Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with weak physical demand for gold in major Asian markets, indicating that despite the price increase earlier in the year, buying interest remains subdued [1].

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - London gold is currently trading around $4009.71 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.38% from the previous session, having reached a high of $4044.48 and a low of $4008.53 during the Asian trading session [1] - The short-term outlook for London gold appears to be a range-bound movement, with key support at $4000 per ounce and resistance at $4042 per ounce [4] Group 2: Technical Analysis - A bullish engulfing pattern was observed in the daily chart, indicating a potential short-term upward trend, although there is a conflicting head and shoulders pattern that may exert downward pressure [3] - The MACD indicator shows an increase in bullish momentum, with a DIF value of 5.66, DEA value of 1.13, and MACD value of 9.06 [4] Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Industry representatives at the London Bullion Market Association's annual conference predict that gold prices could rise to $4980 per ounce within the next 12 months, reflecting a 27% increase from current levels [5] - Short-term price movements will be influenced by Federal Reserve policy decisions and geopolitical factors [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are under pressure, with a significant drop below $3,380, forming a head and shoulders pattern, suggesting a bearish outlook if prices do not break above $3,400 [1] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting on July 29-30, where no interest rate changes are expected, but political pressure on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell remains a critical variable [3] - The recent political interference regarding the Federal Reserve's independence could lead to long-term uncertainty, with potential implications for inflation and gold prices [2] Group 2 - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that buyers are losing momentum, indicating that gold prices may remain below $3,400 per ounce in the short term [4] - If gold surpasses $3,400, the next resistance level is at $3,452, while failure to maintain above this level could see prices drop to $3,350 and potentially lower [4] - Current market conditions show a downward trend in short-term moving averages, reinforcing a bearish outlook for gold prices [4]