Core Viewpoint - Tianrun Dairy's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 shows a decline in revenue and net profit, attributed to a low milk price cycle in the Chinese dairy industry, despite an increase in product sales volume [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's operating revenue was 2.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.81% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of approximately 10.61 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 147.7% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the operating revenue was 678 million yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.24 million yuan, a decrease of 77.6% [1]. - The non-recurring net profit was 18.75 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 62.7% [1]. - As of the end of Q3, total assets were 5.767 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.9% from the end of the previous year, and the net assets attributable to shareholders were 2.397 billion yuan, down 0.7% [1]. Market and Product Development - Despite the challenging market conditions, the company achieved a sales volume of 230,000 tons of dairy products, an increase of 1.91% compared to the same period last year [1]. - The company has launched several new products to enrich its product matrix [1]. - The company is actively expanding its market channels, with its e-commerce subsidiary completing the setup of mainstream e-commerce platforms and live streaming rooms, and preparing for the "Double 11" shopping event [2]. - The company has also opened multiple direct-operated stores to enhance brand influence [2]. - The construction of a smart factory with an annual production capacity of 200,000 tons of dairy products has been largely completed and is in trial operation, marking significant progress in production intelligence and digitalization [2].

Core Viewpoint - Tianrun Dairy reported a decline in revenue and a net loss for the first three quarters of 2023, indicating significant challenges in the dairy industry amid low milk prices and increased competition [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 2.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.81% [1][2]. - In Q3, revenue was 678 million yuan, down 4.84% year-on-year [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately -10.61 million yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss [1][2]. - The total profit for Q3 was 1.58 million yuan, a decline of 96.50% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 77.60% in Q3 [2]. Sales and Product Performance - The company sold 226,800 tons of dairy products from January to September, an increase of 1.91% compared to the same period last year [3]. - Shelf-stable dairy products accounted for 54% of the company's revenue, while low-temperature dairy products contributed approximately 40% [3]. Industry Context - The Chinese dairy industry is currently experiencing a downturn, characterized by low milk prices, capacity reduction in upstream farming, and intense competition among downstream dairy companies [3]. - The company's net profit growth rates are projected to decline by 27.71% in 2023 and 69.26% in 2024 [3]. Operational Adjustments - Tianrun Dairy has actively eliminated low-yield dairy cows, with over 7,700 cows culled in 2024 [3]. - As of the reporting period, the company had 51,900 cows, a decrease of 12,900 from the end of 2024 [3]. - The proportion of breeding cows increased to 56%, enhancing breeding efficiency [3]. Production Capacity - The company’s annual production capacity for dairy products has reached 200,000 tons, with the project nearing completion and entering trial operations [3]. - The production system includes 21 operational systems, creating a comprehensive data ecosystem covering the entire dairy supply chain [3]. Market Performance - As of October 23, Tianrun Dairy's stock price increased by 1.76%, closing at 10.42 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.288 billion yuan [4].

2025年下半年原奶行业的情况会好于上半年。 中国工程院院士、中国农业大学营养与健康研究院院长任发政表示，2024年国内乳制品总产量2962万 吨，同比减少1.86%，人均奶类消费量41.5公斤，同比减少5.6%。 经过三年多的调整，国内奶业的情况正在逐步好转。 一方面，国内奶价已经低于国际主要产奶国奶价水平。李胜利表示，2025年3月新西兰奶价约为3.2元/ 公斤，美国和欧洲分别为3.6元/公斤和4.2元/公斤。2025年5月20日大包奶粉拍卖价格为4332美元/吨，折 合人民币3.9元/公斤，持续上涨后都高于国内水平，对国内市场的冲击在减弱，这也有利于国内奶粉库 存消化。 另一方面，低奶价也加速了国内奶业产能调整。国家奶牛产业体系数据显示，2024年国内奶牛存栏数下 降了20万到30万头，扭转了连续5年增长的态势。同时，原奶产量全年为4079万吨，同比下降2.8%。预 计2025年，国内奶牛存栏会继续下降20万头左右。 国家奶牛体系走访发现，2024年4月份，国内龙头乳企每天平均喷粉生鲜乳约为2万吨，约占收奶量的 25%左右，2025年4月份这一数字下降至1.3万吨，好于上年同期。2025年5月中旬开始， ...