TrendForce集邦咨询指出，由于2025年第四季PC整机出货优于预期，目前PC DRAM仍普遍缺货，即便 是确定取得原厂供给的tier-1 PC OEM业者，DRAM库存水平仍有下滑。在卖方市场格局抬升合约价商 谈行情的背景下，预计2026年第一季PC DRAM价格将季增100%以上，涨幅达历史新高。 智通财经APP获悉，周一，存储板块走强，闪迪(SNDK.US)涨超7%，希捷科技(STX.US)涨超5%，西部 数据(WDC.US)涨超4%，美光科技(MU.US)涨超2%。消息面上，根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新存储器产 业调查，2026年第一季AI与数据中心需求持续加剧全球存储器供需失衡，原厂议价能力有增无减， TrendForce集邦咨询据此全面上修第一季DRAM、NAND Flash各产品价格季成长幅度。预估整体 Conventional DRAM合约价将从一月初公布的季增55-60%，改为上涨90-95%，NAND Flash合约价则从 季增33-38%上调至55-60%，并且不排除仍有进一步上修空间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The storage sector is experiencing significant gains, driven by increased demand for AI and data centers, leading to a supply-demand imbalance in the global memory market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - SanDisk (SNDK.US) rose over 7%, Seagate Technology (STX.US) increased over 5%, Western Digital (WDC.US) gained over 4%, and Micron Technology (MU.US) saw an increase of over 2% [1] Group 2: Price Adjustments - TrendForce has revised its forecasts for the first quarter of 2026, increasing the expected quarterly growth rates for DRAM and NAND Flash prices due to heightened demand [1] - The overall Conventional DRAM contract price is now expected to rise by 90-95%, up from the previously estimated 55-60% [1] - NAND Flash contract prices have been adjusted from a projected increase of 33-38% to 55-60%, with potential for further upward revisions [1] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The demand for PC DRAM remains high, with a general shortage despite tier-1 PC OEMs securing supply, leading to declining inventory levels [1] - In a seller's market, the contract price negotiations are expected to elevate, with PC DRAM prices projected to increase by over 100% in the first quarter of 2026, marking a historical high [1]

Core Viewpoint - The mobile industry chain is experiencing a significant downturn, with major companies like Q Technology, GoerTek, and BYD Electronics seeing substantial stock price declines due to a recent halt in storage chip procurement by several smartphone manufacturers [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Q Technology (01478) shares fell by 7.12%, trading at HKD 9.91 [1] - GoerTek (01415) shares decreased by 4.8%, trading at HKD 27.36 [1] - Hong Teng Precision (06088) shares dropped by 4.64%, trading at HKD 4.93 [1] - BYD Electronics (00285) shares declined by 3.24%, trading at HKD 32.9 [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Since the second half of 2025, the global storage chip industry has entered a rare uptrend, leading to increased costs for complete devices [1] - Major smartphone manufacturers like OPPO and vivo have low inventory levels, with some DRAM stocks below three weeks, causing hesitation in accepting price increases of nearly 50% from suppliers [1] Group 3: Forecast Adjustments - TrendForce has revised down its production shipment forecasts for global smartphones and laptops for 2026, from a growth of 0.1% and 1.7% to declines of 2% and 2.4%, respectively [1] - There is a risk of further downward adjustments in production forecasts if the imbalance in storage supply and demand worsens or if the increase in terminal prices exceeds expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global market in 2026 is expected to face uncertainty due to persistent inflation affecting consumer market performance, alongside a strong upward cycle in memory prices leading to increased costs for end products, which may force price hikes and impact the consumer market [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - TrendForce has revised down its production shipment forecasts for global smartphones and laptops for 2026, from an original growth of 0.1% and 1.7% to a decline of 2% and 2.4% respectively [1] - There is a risk of further downward adjustments to production shipment forecasts if the imbalance in memory supply and demand worsens or if the increase in end product prices exceeds expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The supply of LPDDR4X memory is expected to significantly decrease or stop by Korean and American manufacturers in 2025 and 2026, leading to a supply-demand gap as mobile processor chips do not yet support LPDDR5X, prompting brands to increase procurement of LPDDR4X, which is driving up contract prices [1][4]. Group 1 - The demand for LPDDR4X has surged due to limited supply, with an expected double-digit percentage decrease in output by 2026, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance and causing prices to rise [4]. - The transition to LPDDR5X is hindered by the fact that many low-end smartphone processors have ceased to evolve and only support LPDDR4X, while some mid-range processors can support both but are preferred to use LPDDR4X due to cost considerations [2][4]. - As LPDDR4X supply tightens, brands are accelerating testing of LPDDR5X for convertible products, although the transition for low-end products remains limited due to processor compatibility issues [2][4]. Group 2 - By 2025, LPDDR4X is projected to account for approximately 42% of total Mobile DRAM output, with the remainder being LPDDR5X, indicating a significant reliance on the older technology in the near term [4]. - The rising prices of LPDDR4X are putting pressure on mid-range and low-end products, potentially forcing brands to adjust their pricing strategies and market positioning, which could impact smartphone sales performance [4].