Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impressive turnaround of Baiwei Storage under the leadership of Chairman Sun Chengsi, projecting significant profit growth driven by the rising demand for storage chips, particularly in the AI sector. The company aims for an IPO in Hong Kong to expand its operations further [5][9][25]. Group 1: Company Performance - Baiwei Storage is expected to achieve a net profit of 850-1,000 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 400-500% [5][12]. - The company reported a profit of over 1 billion yuan in just six months, showcasing its rapid recovery and growth [6][12]. - The stock price reached a new high of 145.9 yuan per share on January 14, 2025, indicating strong market confidence [25]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The storage product prices are projected to follow a "U-shaped" curve, declining until Q1 2025 and then recovering, which will boost sales revenue and gross margins [14]. - The demand for storage is being driven by AI applications, particularly in AI inference, edge AI, and emerging AI applications [17]. - Baiwei's products are being integrated into various sectors, including robotics and consumer electronics, with notable clients like Lenovo and Xiaomi [18][19]. Group 3: Leadership and Strategy - Sun Chengsi, who took over the company at the age of 27, has been instrumental in transforming Baiwei's business model from ODM to a more integrated R&D and packaging approach [7][21]. - The company has established partnerships with major semiconductor manufacturers and has focused on enhancing its packaging and testing capabilities [21][29]. - Baiwei is the only independent storage solution provider globally with wafer-level packaging capabilities, which enhances its competitive edge [29]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Baiwei plans to expand its production capacity significantly, with a fundraising target of approximately 1.9 billion yuan aimed at enhancing its manufacturing capabilities [32]. - The company anticipates that revenue from AI glasses will reach about 106 million yuan in 2024, with expectations of over 500% growth in 2025 [31]. - The management is preparing for a dual listing in Hong Kong, which will further support its growth ambitions [25][26].

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley January 19, 2026 05:25 PM GMT Nanya Technology Corp. | Asia Pacific DDR4 Supply and Demand to Remain Imbalanced Into 2027; OW Reaction to earnings Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision higher Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research DDR4 will likely remain in shortage into 2027 as constrained capacity persists, making NTC the main beneficiar ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The overall manufacturing sector is under pressure, with a global manufacturing PMI mostly in contraction territory, particularly affected by US-China tariff policies [6] - Major manufacturers are competing for high-end processes and AI memory market share, with companies like Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix leading the charge in high-performance memory technologies [6] - Supply chain dynamics are tightening due to capacity concentration and rising material costs, particularly in the DDR4 and Flash memory markets [6] - The market is experiencing a shift towards high-end demand driven by AI applications, while low-end markets face pressure [6] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - The global manufacturing PMI indicates a contraction, with China's PMI at 49.3% in July, reflecting a slight decline [7][17] - Export structures are improving, with a notable increase in the export of high-value electronic products [6][22] Original Manufacturer Dynamics - Leading manufacturers are focusing on high-performance memory technologies, with South Asia becoming a key supplier for DDR4 [6][29] - Domestic manufacturers are accelerating the construction of independent production lines in response to sanctions [6][29] Supply Chain Movements - The concentration of DDR4 production is shifting to a few manufacturers, while Flash memory faces shortages in mid-to-low capacity chips [6][29] - The market is currently in a phase of inventory reduction, with DRAM prices experiencing fluctuations [6][29] Market Trends - The DRAM market has shifted from a surge in June to a period of adjustment, with DDR4 prices declining and DDR5 demand increasing [6][29] - The NAND market is seeing price increases for low-capacity chips, driven by supply constraints and rising demand [6][29] Application Changes - AI is driving demand for high-performance memory and SSDs, while low-end smartphone markets are under pressure due to supply chain issues [6][34] Upstream Market - The memory market is experiencing supply tightness due to the end-of-life plans for DDR4, with South Asia emerging as a dominant supplier [6][29] - The transition to DDR5 is accelerating, with expectations of increased market penetration in the coming quarters [6][32] Foundry Market - The demand for mature process nodes is declining, impacting the utilization rates of foundries [6][51] - Companies are focusing on niche markets to mitigate the impact of reduced demand in traditional sectors [6][52] Storage Controller Market - New products like the MonTitan SM8466 PCIe Gen6 SSD controller are being introduced, enhancing performance and capacity for enterprise storage [6][54] - The demand for high-end storage solutions is increasing, driven by the rise of AI applications [6][55]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid rise of Changxin Technology as a significant player in the DRAM market, emphasizing its potential to challenge established giants like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, while also addressing the strategic importance of domestic semiconductor production for China's economic security [2][30]. Group 1: Company Overview - Changxin Technology, founded in 2016 in Hefei, has quickly become China's largest and most advanced DRAM manufacturer, aiming to raise 29.5 billion yuan through its IPO on the STAR Market in 2026 [2][30]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 55 to 58 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of approximately 128% to 140% compared to 2024, with a potential net profit of 2 to 3.5 billion yuan [2][30]. Group 2: Key Players and Support - The establishment of Changxin was significantly influenced by Zhu Yiming, founder of Zhaoyi Innovation, who recognized the need for an IDM model in DRAM production to build competitive advantages [4]. - Hefei's local government played a crucial role by providing substantial financial support and attracting national-level investment funds, which helped alleviate initial funding pressures for Changxin [4][5]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Changxin's strategy involved legally acquiring a vast array of technologies and patents from the bankrupt German chipmaker Qimonda, which provided a foundational technology base for its DRAM production [9]. - The company made a bold decision to skip several technology generations and focus on the 19nm process, achieving mass production of 8GB DDR4 chips in 2019, marking a historic breakthrough for Chinese enterprises in the DRAM market [9][10]. Group 4: Production Capacity and Market Strategy - Following the successful launch of the 19nm process, Changxin advanced to the 17nm node and then directly to the 16nm process for DDR5 products, showcasing its rapid technological progression [12][16]. - By 2026, Changxin's production capacity is expected to exceed 300,000 wafers per month, solidifying its position as the largest DRAM manufacturer in China and the fourth globally [13][30]. Group 5: Financial Performance and Challenges - Despite impressive revenue growth from 8.1 billion yuan in 2022 to 23.9 billion yuan in 2024, Changxin has faced strategic losses, accumulating 41.5 billion yuan in losses due to high fixed asset depreciation and significant R&D investments [23][24]. - The company’s R&D expenditure from 2022 to 2025 is projected to reach 19 billion yuan, accounting for over 33% of its cumulative revenue, significantly higher than industry averages [23][24]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Changxin aims to capture a 10% market share in the DRAM sector by 2026, positioning itself among the top four global players alongside Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron [30]. - The company is also planning to enter the HBM market, with expectations to start mass production of HBM3 products in 2026, which could further enhance its competitive edge [16][30].

Group 1 - Changxin Technology has submitted its IPO application to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, becoming the first company to use the pre-review mechanism introduced by the CSRC in June 2025, which aims to reduce the exposure time of sensitive information [1][11] - The company plans to raise 29.5 billion yuan, the highest amount in the history of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with funds allocated for wafer production line upgrades, DRAM technology upgrades, and advanced technology research and development [1][2][12] - If Changxin's actual fundraising does not significantly exceed the planned amount, it may rank as the second highest in actual fundraising on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2][13] Group 2 - The listing of Changxin Technology will provide a rare high-quality general-purpose DRAM stock in the capital market, filling a gap in the storage chip sector where there are currently no world-class leaders [3][12][15] - The company has shown significant growth, with a revenue of 32.08 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 97.79%, although it still reported a net loss of 5.28 billion yuan [5][16] - The gross margin has improved, turning positive for the first time in 2024 at 5.58%, and further increasing to 13.00% in the first half of 2025, indicating a positive trend [5][16] Group 3 - The future profitability of Changxin Technology is expected to be driven by an increase in the proportion of DDR series products, which have higher margins compared to LPDDR products [6][17] - The company has stopped producing DDR4 products and is focusing on high-end models like LPDDR5 and DDR5, which are expected to enhance profitability as market penetration increases [6][18] - Changxin Technology's market share growth will help distribute fixed costs, as the company has significant fixed asset depreciation, which accounted for over half of its revenue in recent periods [20][21] Group 4 - The estimated post-IPO valuation of Changxin Technology is around 295 billion yuan, which is double its valuation from the last financing round in June 2025 [20][21] - Using market valuation methods, if Changxin achieves a revenue growth rate similar to the first three quarters, its total revenue for 2025 could reach approximately 47.8 billion yuan, leading to a market valuation of about 732.5 billion yuan [21][22] - Currently, the highest market capitalization on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is held by SMIC at approximately 1,040 billion yuan [24]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively advancing its LPDDR5 certification and trial production, focusing on high-performance storage chip products and solutions development to lay a foundation for future business growth [1] Group 1: Product Offerings - The company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Dawi Chuangxin, primarily produces DRAM products including DDR3, DDR4, LPDDR4X, and DDR5, as well as NAND Flash products such as eMMC and BGA NAND Flash [1] Group 2: Market Applications - The products are widely applied across multiple fields, indicating a diverse market presence and potential for growth [1] Group 3: Future Developments - The company is committed to the research and development of high-performance storage chip products and solutions, which is essential for its future business development [1]

Group 1: DRAM Market Insights - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a significant increase in PC DRAM prices due to tightened supply from manufacturers, despite a slowdown in overall demand for PC units [2] - Server DRAM demand is projected to grow substantially as cloud service providers (CSPs) increase their purchases, with a forecasted price increase of over 60% in the first quarter [3] - Mobile DRAM supply remains tight, leading to strong purchasing power from brands, with expectations of rising contract prices for LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X [3] - Graphics DRAM prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints, despite a conservative demand outlook influenced by NVIDIA's sales target adjustments [3] - Consumer DRAM customers are willing to pay higher prices for prioritized supply in the first quarter, as supply continues to lag behind demand [3] Group 2: NAND Flash Market Insights - The NAND Flash market is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by AI applications, with Enterprise SSD demand expected to surpass mobile applications for the first time by 2026 [4] - Client SSD demand is projected to decline in the first quarter due to reduced laptop shipments and capacity downgrades in lower-end models, yet contract prices are expected to increase by at least 40% [4] - The supply of NAND Flash products is tightening as manufacturers prioritize high-margin products, leading to increased prices for Enterprise SSDs [4] - eMMC/UFS demand is showing signs of weakness due to inventory adjustments, although Chromebook shipments are benefiting from government projects [5] - NAND Flash wafer supply is constrained as manufacturers focus on high-margin product lines, resulting in continued price increases despite weak demand in consumer markets [5]

长鑫科技此次IPO具有特殊意义，它是科创板试点IPO预先审阅机制实行后的首单获受理项目。2025年6月18日，证监会发布《关于在科创板设置科创成长 层 增强制度包容性适应性的意见》，首次明确提出试点IPO预先审阅机制。随后7月13日，上交所发布《发行上市审核规则适用指引第7号——预先审 阅》，明确符合条件的关键核心技术攻关企业可申请预先审阅，以减少上市"曝光"时间，保护企业敏感信息。 | 序号 | 内容 | 史新日期 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 8-1-2 发行人及中介机构关于第二轮预先审阅问询函的回复 | 2025-12-30 | | 2 | 8-1-1 发行人及中介机构关于首轮预先审阅问询函的回复 | ●公众号 · 半导体工程师 | 长鑫科技已完成两轮预先审阅，分别在2025年11月5日和11月19日收到问询，并在正式申报时同步披露了预审问询回复。这一安排不仅保护了企业的敏感 信息，还提高了申报文件质量，压缩了审核周期，满足了关键核心技术攻关企业的特殊诉求。 中国第一、全球第四的DRAM厂商 长鑫科技成立于2016年，总部位于安徽省合肥市经济技术开发区空港工业园，是一家专注于DRA ...

招股书显示，长鑫科技目前无控股股东和实际控制人。截至招股书签署日，公司第一大股东清辉集电持股21.67%，第二大股东长鑫集成持股11.71%，其 他持股5%以上的股东还包括国家集成电路产业投资基金二期（大基金二期）、合肥集鑫及安徽省投，分别持股8.73%、8.37%及7.91%。此外，阿里、腾 讯、招银国际、人保资本、建信金融、国调基金、君联资本、小米产投等均位列其股东行列。公司的股权结构较为分散，且前十大股东中多为国资背景或 产业基金，不存在单一持股比例超过50%的股东。 从产品进展来看，长鑫科技在成立后的九年间采取"跳代研发"策略，连续推出了四代工艺技术平台。招股书披露，目前公司已完成从DDR4、LPDDR4X到 DDR5、LPDDR5/5X的产品覆盖和迭代。其中，长鑫科技发布的LPDDR5X产品最高速率达到10667Mbps，较上一代提升66%；首款国产DDR5产品速率高 达8000Mbps。这些产品广泛应用于服务器、移动设备、个人电脑及智能汽车等领域。 根据Omdia数据统计，按2024年产能和出货量计算，长鑫科技已成为中国第一、全球第四的DRAM厂商。2025年第二季度，长鑫科技的全球市场份额增至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant progress of Changxin Technology in the DRAM market, focusing on its upcoming IPO and the company's growth potential amid industry challenges and opportunities [1][5]. Group 1: IPO and Funding - Changxin Technology's IPO has been accepted, aiming to raise 29.5 billion yuan, making it the second-largest IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board since its inception [1][2]. - The funds will be allocated to various projects, including 13 billion yuan for the second phase of wafer manufacturing and 9 billion yuan for next-generation DRAM technology research [1][5]. Group 2: Company Overview - Established in June 2016, Changxin Technology operates under an IDM model, integrating chip design, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sales [2]. - The company has a diverse shareholder structure, with no single entity holding more than 50% of shares, including significant investments from state-owned funds and tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent [2][5]. Group 3: Product Development and Market Position - Changxin Technology has successfully developed four generations of DRAM technology, with products like LPDDR5X achieving speeds of 10,667 Mbps, a 66% increase from previous generations [3][4]. - As of 2024, the company is projected to be the largest DRAM manufacturer in China and the fourth globally, with a market share of 3.97% [3][4]. Group 4: Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown explosive growth, with projected revenues of 241.78 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 70.81% from 2022 to 2024 [4]. - Despite significant losses in previous years, Changxin Technology anticipates turning a profit in 2025, with expected revenues between 55 billion and 58 billion yuan and a net profit of 2 billion to 3.5 billion yuan [5][6]. Group 5: Industry Context and Future Outlook - The global DRAM market is transitioning from DDR4 to DDR5 and HBM, with Changxin Technology focusing on upgrading its production capabilities to remain competitive [6][7]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for domestic semiconductor production amid geopolitical tensions and supply chain challenges [5][7].