沪铜月报 高铜价VS高库存，铜牛旺季成色几何 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2026-02-27 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 目录 Contents 4 虽然全球铜高库存短期限制上方空间，但未来有效流通的铜库存预期偏紧，随着金三银四消 费旺季和国内两会临近，市场情绪积极，宏微有望共振，铜整体震荡偏强。但也需警惕宏观 情绪消退后，弱现实压制铜价，带来高位回落风险。 建议回调逢低试多，产业买保按需采购，回调加大补库力度，卖出套保等待反弹背靠上方压 力位。中长期看，铜矿紧张和绿色同需求爆发，叠加国家战略资源安全溢价和中美博弈加 剧，对铜中长期趋势依旧看好。 3月沪铜关注区间【98500，106500】元/吨，伦铜关注区间【12500，13500】美元/吨 风险提示：铜矿减产，需求不足，中美关系 观点摘要 宏观经济 供需分析 总结展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 沪铜观点摘要 【核心观点】 两会临近叠加金三旺季开启，铜矿紧张背景下，高铜价VS高库存，宏微有待共振， 建议回调逢低试多，中长期对铜依旧看好 【策略展望】 工作计划安排 WORK SCH ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Silver: Cautious, advised to be cautious about chasing high prices [1] - Copper: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Zinc: Cautious bullish, advised to be cautious about going long [1] - Lead: Bullish, expected to rebound [1] - Tin: Bullish, expected to be strong [1] - Aluminum: Bullish, expected to rebound [1] - Nickel: Bullish, expected to rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bullish, advised to try long positions with a light position [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish, expected to be under pressure [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks such as US tariff fluctuations and the Iran situation provide support for gold. In the long - term, central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining its strategic allocation value. Silver's industrial demand is increasing, and its financial hedging attributes are strengthened, but short - term participation is difficult [1][3]. - The relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in Shanghai boosts the property market, and with the approaching of the peak consumption season and the Two Sessions, copper prices are expected to be strong in the short - term and remain optimistic in the long - term [1][5][7]. - The supply and demand of zinc are both weak, and inventory accumulation restricts the upside space. It is advisable to be cautiously bullish and wait for more macro guidance [1][8][10]. - The cost of alumina has stabilized at a low level. Although inventory has accumulated, the resumption of downstream enterprises after the holiday is expected to drive the short - term rebound of aluminum prices [1][11][13]. - Indonesia's reduction of nickel production quotas and supply disturbances lead to a short - term rebound in nickel prices, while stainless steel is in the off - season with inventory accumulation [1][15][17]. - The continuous destocking of lithium carbonate in the off - season, along with potential supply disruptions, drives up prices, and it is recommended to go long [1][19][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: COMEX gold and silver futures rose, and the decline of the US dollar index and the increase of gold ETF holdings reflect the strong demand for hedging [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: Uncertainties such as the US - Iran negotiation and Trump's tariff policy, as well as the "safety stock theory", enhance the value of gold and silver as hedging assets [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has a long - term upward trend. Short - term support levels are around 1120 for gold and 21000 for silver. Be vigilant against profit - taking risks [4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The prices of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper all rose, and trading volume and open interest increased significantly. Inventory has accumulated, and the basis and premium have changed [5]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global copper mine supply is tight, and domestic copper smelting capacity growth has been curbed. High copper prices and the holiday effect have led to significant inventory accumulation [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, take partial profits at high prices, and beware of price drops after the macro - sentiment fades. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. The short - term price range for Shanghai copper is [101500, 105500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [13000, 13500] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices showed a narrow - range oscillation. Trading volume and open interest increased, inventory changed, and the basis and premium also changed [8]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026, and supply and demand are both weak during the holiday. Inventory has accumulated seasonally [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautiously bullish, pay attention to the post - holiday demand recovery rhythm, and wait for more macro guidance. In the long - term, try long positions on dips. The price range for Shanghai zinc is [24200, 25000] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3300, 3400] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum and alumina futures prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [11]. - **Underlying Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. New electrolytic aluminum projects are expected to increase production steadily. Inventory is a short - term suppressing factor, and the alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips in the short - term, pay attention to inventory accumulation, and the main operating range is [22000 - 25000] [14]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel and stainless steel futures prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [15]. - **Underlying Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. Indonesia's reduction of nickel production quotas and supply disturbances increase market concerns. Stainless steel is in the off - season with inventory accumulation [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips, pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes, and the main operating range for nickel is [130000 - 150000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose, and the prices of spot lithium products also increased. Inventory decreased, and production decreased [19]. - **Underlying Logic**: Supply disruptions such as factory fires and export controls, as well as the expected increase in demand for replenishment, strengthen the expectation of supply tightening [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips, and the price range is [162000 - 180000] [22].