1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - With the approaching Two - Sessions and the start of the "Golden Three" peak season, against the backdrop of tight copper mines, high copper prices coexist with high inventories. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. In the long - term, the outlook for copper remains positive [6][94]. - Although the high global copper inventory restricts the upside in the short - term, the expected supply of effectively circulating copper inventory is tight. With the approaching of the "Golden Three, Silver Four" consumption peak season and the Two - Sessions in China, market sentiment is positive, and there is a possibility of resonance between the macro and micro levels, leading to an overall upward trend in copper prices. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of price decline when the macro sentiment fades [6][94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Economy - The impact of Kevin Warsh's policy on the market is gradually subsiding. The FOMC has internal differences, with the dovish camp advocating a rate cut in June and the hawkish camp emphasizing the need for more evidence of inflation decline. The probability of a rate cut in June is about 52%, and it is expected to cut rates 2 - 3 times this year [10]. - The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's tariffs were illegal, but the White House extended the tariff framework for 150 days. A 10% tariff has taken effect, and there are rumors of a potential increase to 15%, causing global market turmoil [10]. - The "safety stock theory" proposed by Goldman Sachs shows that countries are establishing strategic reserves, reducing the market - available inventory, and pushing up commodity prices. Meanwhile, countries' protectionism for key mineral resources is rising, which affects the supply of metals such as copper [10]. - Trump's administration plans to use AI to set reference prices for key minerals, aiming to weaken China's influence in the mineral market, which may lead to China's counter - measures and the division of the global mineral market [10]. - The US January non - farm payrolls data showed strong growth, but after the annual benchmark revision, the 2025 non - farm employment data was significantly revised downwards, and the importance of employment data has been questioned [11]. - Citrini Research's article warns of the potential economic crisis caused by AI, where productivity may soar while the economy withers [11]. - The Iranian foreign minister's visit to Geneva for the Iran - US negotiations and Trump's stance on Iran have increased global financial market volatility [11]. - In January 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing economy. The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR have remained unchanged for 9 months, and Shanghai has issued the "Seven Measures" to boost the real estate market [15]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore abandoned merger negotiations. Six major overseas core mining companies, including Glencore and Freeport, have lowered their 2026 copper production plans, and Southern Copper's 2026 production guidance has also declined, increasing concerns about supply shortages [49]. - Trump plans to launch the "Project Vault" with an initial capital of $12 billion to protect US manufacturers from supply shocks and build a key - mineral supply chain excluding China [49]. - Congo (Kinshasa) has exported copper to the US for the first time. In 2025, China's copper concentrate imports reached a record high [49]. - The copper concentrate TC has been running at a low level, and the market expects a tight supply in 2026. The copper smelting over - capacity growth has been curbed, and the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association has proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system [50]. - In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 117.93 tons, a slight increase. Due to smelter maintenance, February's production is expected to decline. In 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased [52]. - The scrap - copper supply has increased, and the scrap - refined copper price difference has rebounded. The CSPT group has reached a consensus on reducing production capacity, resisting unreasonable pricing, and preventing vicious competition [52]. 3.2.2 Demand - In January 2026, the monthly opening rates of copper processing enterprises such as copper products, electrolytic copper rods, copper strips, and wire and cable increased. After the holiday, the opening rates are expected to continue to rebound [74]. - The predicted copper consumption in 2026 is 16.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.75% [75]. - Green copper demand is strong, as renewable energy systems use 8 - 12 times more copper than traditional power systems. In January 2026, new energy vehicle sales increased slightly year - on - year. Power grid investment increased in 2025, and the photovoltaic industry maintained high - speed growth. In January 2026, the air - conditioning production plan showed seasonal fluctuations [76]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - Although the high global copper inventory restricts the upside in the short - term, the expected supply of effectively circulating copper inventory is tight. With the approaching of the consumption peak season and the Two - Sessions, the market is positive, and copper prices are expected to be volatile and upward. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against price declines when the macro sentiment fades [6][94]. - It is recommended to try long positions on dips. Industrial buyers should purchase as needed and increase inventory replenishment on dips. Sellers should wait for rebounds and hedge against upper - level pressure. In the long - term, due to tight copper mines, the explosion of green copper demand, and the increase in national strategic resource security premiums, the long - term trend of copper remains positive [6][94]. - In March, the focus range for Shanghai copper is [98,500, 106,500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12,500, 13,500] US dollars/ton [6][94].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Silver: Cautious, advised to be cautious about chasing high prices [1] - Copper: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Zinc: Cautious bullish, advised to be cautious about going long [1] - Lead: Bullish, expected to rebound [1] - Tin: Bullish, expected to be strong [1] - Aluminum: Bullish, expected to rebound [1] - Nickel: Bullish, expected to rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bullish, advised to try long positions with a light position [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish, expected to be under pressure [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks such as US tariff fluctuations and the Iran situation provide support for gold. In the long - term, central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining its strategic allocation value. Silver's industrial demand is increasing, and its financial hedging attributes are strengthened, but short - term participation is difficult [1][3]. - The relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in Shanghai boosts the property market, and with the approaching of the peak consumption season and the Two Sessions, copper prices are expected to be strong in the short - term and remain optimistic in the long - term [1][5][7]. - The supply and demand of zinc are both weak, and inventory accumulation restricts the upside space. It is advisable to be cautiously bullish and wait for more macro guidance [1][8][10]. - The cost of alumina has stabilized at a low level. Although inventory has accumulated, the resumption of downstream enterprises after the holiday is expected to drive the short - term rebound of aluminum prices [1][11][13]. - Indonesia's reduction of nickel production quotas and supply disturbances lead to a short - term rebound in nickel prices, while stainless steel is in the off - season with inventory accumulation [1][15][17]. - The continuous destocking of lithium carbonate in the off - season, along with potential supply disruptions, drives up prices, and it is recommended to go long [1][19][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: COMEX gold and silver futures rose, and the decline of the US dollar index and the increase of gold ETF holdings reflect the strong demand for hedging [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: Uncertainties such as the US - Iran negotiation and Trump's tariff policy, as well as the "safety stock theory", enhance the value of gold and silver as hedging assets [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has a long - term upward trend. Short - term support levels are around 1120 for gold and 21000 for silver. Be vigilant against profit - taking risks [4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The prices of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper all rose, and trading volume and open interest increased significantly. Inventory has accumulated, and the basis and premium have changed [5]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global copper mine supply is tight, and domestic copper smelting capacity growth has been curbed. High copper prices and the holiday effect have led to significant inventory accumulation [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, take partial profits at high prices, and beware of price drops after the macro - sentiment fades. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. The short - term price range for Shanghai copper is [101500, 105500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [13000, 13500] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices showed a narrow - range oscillation. Trading volume and open interest increased, inventory changed, and the basis and premium also changed [8]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026, and supply and demand are both weak during the holiday. Inventory has accumulated seasonally [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautiously bullish, pay attention to the post - holiday demand recovery rhythm, and wait for more macro guidance. In the long - term, try long positions on dips. The price range for Shanghai zinc is [24200, 25000] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3300, 3400] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum and alumina futures prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [11]. - **Underlying Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. New electrolytic aluminum projects are expected to increase production steadily. Inventory is a short - term suppressing factor, and the alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips in the short - term, pay attention to inventory accumulation, and the main operating range is [22000 - 25000] [14]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel and stainless steel futures prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [15]. - **Underlying Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. Indonesia's reduction of nickel production quotas and supply disturbances increase market concerns. Stainless steel is in the off - season with inventory accumulation [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips, pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes, and the main operating range for nickel is [130000 - 150000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose, and the prices of spot lithium products also increased. Inventory decreased, and production decreased [19]. - **Underlying Logic**: Supply disruptions such as factory fires and export controls, as well as the expected increase in demand for replenishment, strengthen the expectation of supply tightening [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips, and the price range is [162000 - 180000] [22].