Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The convergence of the 9 - 1 spread, positive macro - factors, supply reduction from Thailand's delayed rubber tapping, and improved raw material procurement in the domestic tire industry after the holiday support this view [6]. - The domestic methanol futures price may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The narrowing of the 9 - 1 spread and the improved risk appetite in the methanol futures market due to positive macro - factors contribute to this prediction [6]. - The domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The improved risk appetite in the crude oil futures market under positive macro - factors supports this outlook [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 614,200 tons, a 0.9% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 4.3% and the general trade inventory by 0.38%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 2.17 percentage points and the outbound rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points. For general trade warehouses, the inbound rate decreased by 1.16 percentage points and the outbound rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 44.80%, a 14.74% week - on - week decline and a 4.40 percentage - point year - on - year decrease. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 58.40%, a week - on - week decline of 8.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decline of 17.80 percentage points [9]. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a 19% month - on - month decrease but a 9.4% increase from the same period last year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat performance [9]. - In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 8.9% and 9.8%. From January to April, the cumulative production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.9% and 10.8%. For the first time in history, the production and sales in the first four months exceeded 10 million [10]. Methanol - As the spring maintenance of domestic methanol plants ended, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output rebounded. As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.14%, a 3.75% week - on - week increase, a 4.16% month - on - month increase, and a 9.89% year - on - year increase. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 87,800 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 352,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 29.05%, a 0.22% week - on - week decrease; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 7.65%, a 0.21% week - on - week increase; the operating rate of acetic acid was 92.58%, a 6.78% week - on - week increase; the operating rate of MTBE was 46.41%, a 4.68% week - on - week decrease. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.73%, a 2.72 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease and a 4.43 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The futures profit of methanol to olefin was 289 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase and a 151 - yuan/ton month - on - month rebound [12]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 348,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 256,800 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 123,900 tons. As of the week of May 8, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 303,900 tons, a 7.23% week - on - week increase, a month - on - month decrease of 10,400 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 86,100 tons [12][14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 479, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 20. The US daily crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 98,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 267,000 barrels/day [15]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) was 438.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.032 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 21.152 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 24.961 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 740,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 399 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 580,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 89.0%, a 0.4 - percentage - point week - on - week increase, a 2.3 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, and a 0.50 - percentage - point year - on - year increase [15]. - Since May 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile and weak pattern. As of May 6, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil decreased slightly week - on - week, while the net long positions in Brent crude oil decreased significantly week - on - week [16]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,235 yuan/ton | +240 yuan/ton | - 385 yuan/ton | - 240 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,522 yuan/ton | +57 yuan/ton | 2,365 yuan/ton | +74 yuan/ton | +157 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 451.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 479.3 yuan/barrel | +8.8 yuan/barrel | - 27.5 yuan/barrel | - 9.0 yuan/barrel | [17] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, spread, inventory, operating rate, and net position charts [18][30][42]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern due to positive macro factors, a delayed natural rubber tapping season in Thailand, and expected improvement in raw material procurement by the domestic tire industry [6]. - The domestic methanol futures price may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern as the macro atmosphere improves and risk appetite in the methanol futures market recovers [6]. - The domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern with the improvement of the macro atmosphere and the recovery of risk appetite in the crude oil futures market [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. Bonded area inventory increased by 4.3% and general trade inventory by 0.38% [9]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 44.80%, a significant week - on - week drop of 14.74% and a year - on - year slight decrease of 4.40 percentage points. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 58.40%, a significant week - on - week drop of 8.29 percentage points and a significant year - on - year drop of 17.80 percentage points [9]. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% but a year - on - year increase of about 9.4%. From January to April, the cumulative sales were about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat [9]. - In April 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 59.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.2 percentage points [10]. Methanol - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.14%, a week - on - week slight increase of 3.75%, a month - on - month slight increase of 4.16%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 9.89%. The weekly average methanol production was 2.0578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 87,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 352,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 29.05%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.22%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was 7.65%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.21%. The operating rate of acetic acid was 92.58%, a week - on - week significant increase of 6.78%. The operating rate of MTBE was 46.41%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 4.68% [12]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.73%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.72 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 4.43 percentage points [12]. - As of May 9, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 289 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 1 yuan/ton and a month - on - month slight increase of 151 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 348,600 tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 256,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 123,900 tons [12]. - As of the week of May 8, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 303,900 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 20,500 tons or 7.23%, a month - on - month slight decrease of 10,400 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 86,100 tons [13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 479, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 20 [14]. - The average daily US crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 98,000 barrels per day but a year - on - year increase of 267,000 barrels per day [14]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 438.4 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 2.032 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 21.152 million barrels [14]. - The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, US was 24.961 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 740,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 399 million barrels, a month - on - month slight increase of 580,000 barrels [14]. - The US refinery operating rate was 89.0%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.4 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 2.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 0.50 percentage points [14]. - Since May 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile and weakening trend. As of May 6, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were 175,428 contracts, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1,781 contracts but a significant increase of 15,065 contracts or 9.39% compared with the April average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 96,156 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 10,566 contracts and a significant decrease of 58,149 contracts or 37.68% compared with the April average [15]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 14,995 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | - 145 yuan/ton | +230 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,447 yuan/ton | - 8 yuan/ton | 2,291 yuan/ton | +21 yuan/ton | +156 yuan/ton | - 29 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 436.2 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | 470.5 yuan/barrel | - 2.1 yuan/barrel | - 34.3 yuan/barrel | +1.7 yuan/barrel | [17] 3. Related Charts - The report lists various charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.), methanol (such as methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, WTI and Brent net position changes, etc.) [18][30][42]