Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong manner, with an intraday view of being oscillatingly strong and a medium - term view of oscillation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.73% to 14,425 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatingly strong trend on Tuesday [5]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, resulting in a relatively high supply pressure. Meanwhile, the domestic downstream automobile market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.39% to 11,450 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures will maintain an oscillatingly strong trend on Tuesday [7]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, synthetic rubber returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and the supply pressure remains. The domestic downstream automobile market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 may maintain a volatile and stable trend after the full release of negative sentiment, with the futures price finding support at the 40 - and 60 - day moving averages [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 may maintain a volatile and weak trend under the dominance of bearish factors, dragged down by the sharp decline in domestic coal futures and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - The prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures may maintain a volatile and weak trend under the dominance of bearish sentiment, as the supply pressure increases after OPEC+ oil - producing countries decide to significantly expand production in September [5]. Summary of Each Section 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 640,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons or 0.91%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 2.70% to 75,800 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 1.42% to 564,600 tons. The storage rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the pick - up rate increased by 0.63 percentage points; the storage rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.67 percentage points, and the pick - up rate increased by 0.14 percentage points [8]. - As of August 1, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year sharp decline of 9.22 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a week - on - week slight decline of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year slight increase of 2.76 percentage points [8]. - In the terminal retail sector, in June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry [8]. - From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%, and the new - car sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 44.3% of the total new - car sales [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.92%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.26%, a month - on - month slight decline of 3.28%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 11.46%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.9302 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 31,300 tons, a month - on - month significant decline of 56,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 312,000 tons compared to 1.6182 million tons last year [10]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 28.55%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.59%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.72%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.41%. The acetic acid operating rate was 88.79%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4.16%. The MTBE operating rate was 54.84%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.32%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 75.72%, a week - on - week slight decline of 0.70 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 2.67 percentage points. As of August 1, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 87 yuan/ton, a week - on - week significant recovery of 249 yuan/ton and a month - on - month slight recovery of 21 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 650,300 tons, a week - on - week significant increase of 63,200 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 150,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 158,000 tons. As of the week of July 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 324,700 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 15,200 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 16,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 75,600 tons compared to 400,300 tons last year [11][13] Crude Oil - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the number of active oil rigs in the United States was 415, a week - on - week slight decrease of 7 and a year - on - year decrease of 67. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.314 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 41,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 14,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426.7 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 7.698 million barrels and a year - on - year significant decrease of 6.358 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 22.553 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 690,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 402.7 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 238,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 95.4%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year significant increase of 5.3 percentage points [13]. - As of July 29, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 156,023 contracts, a week - on - week slight increase of 2,692 contracts and a significant decrease of 49,956 contracts or 24.25% compared to the June average of 205,979 contracts. As of July 29, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 249,973 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 22,728 contracts and a significant increase of 63,690 contracts or 34.19% compared to the June average of 186,283 contracts [14]. 2. Spot Price Table - The spot price of Shanghai rubber was 14,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the futures price of the main contract was 14,365 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton from the previous day; the basis was +35 yuan/ton, a change of - 55 yuan/ton [16]. - The spot price of methanol was 2,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from the previous day; the futures price of the main contract was 2,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the basis was +20 yuan/ton, a change of +3 yuan/ton [16]. - The spot price of crude oil was 495.7 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/barrel from the previous day; the futures price of the main contract was 514.3 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 13.6 yuan/barrel from the previous day; the basis was - 18.6 yuan/barrel, a change of +12.9 yuan/barrel [16]. 3. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spread, inventory, and net position changes, with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Research Institute [17][30][43]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with a short - term and intraday view of weakening oscillations and a mid - term view of strengthening oscillations [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Change**: On the night session of last Friday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 1.35% to 14,245 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract may maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Monday [5]. - **Core Logic**: After the Sino - US third - round economic and trade talks in Sweden, the positive factors have been digested, and the bearish sentiment prevails [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Change**: On the night session of last Friday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly closed lower by 0.96% to 11,365 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract may maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Monday [7]. - **Core Logic**: After the Sino - US third - round economic and trade talks in Sweden, the positive factors have been digested, and the bearish sentiment prevails [7]. General Rules - For varieties with night sessions, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price for calculating the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% a weak oscillation, a rise of 0 - 1% a strong oscillation, and a rise greater than 1% an increase [3]. - The concepts of strong/weak oscillations only apply to the intraday view, not to the short - term and mid - term views [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Both沪胶 2509 and合成胶 2509 are expected to run weakly, with an intraday view of "oscillating weakly" and a mid - term view of "oscillating strongly" [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information - Time period definitions: short - term is within one week, and mid - term is from two weeks to one month. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views [1]. - For calculating price changes, for products with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price, and the ending price is the day - trading closing price. A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly, and a rise of more than 1% is a rise [2][3]. 3.2沪胶（RU） - Intraday view: oscillating weakly; mid - term view: oscillating strongly; reference view: running weakly. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden, with the digestion of positive factors and the dominance of bearish sentiment, the domestic沪胶 futures 2509 contract closed 1.26% lower at 14,535 yuan/ton on Thursday night and may maintain an oscillating and weakly running trend on Friday [5]. 3.3合成胶（BR） - Intraday view: oscillating weakly; mid - term view: oscillating strongly; reference view: running weakly. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden, with the digestion of positive factors and the dominance of bearish sentiment, the domestic合成胶 futures 2509 contract closed 0.60% lower at 11,510 yuan/ton on Thursday night and may maintain an oscillating and weakly running trend on Friday [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - With the temporary cease - fire of the military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, the geopolitical premium in the rubber market has shrunk. The Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract has experienced a high - level correction. In the future, it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend due to the divergence between bulls and bears [2][5]. - The improvement of the macro - sentiment has led to an increase in commodity valuations, and the risk appetite of the commodity market has significantly rebounded [3]. 3) Summary According to Related Content Macro Environment - Overseas markets are optimistic. The US Congress has passed relevant bills, which may lead to a loose fiscal policy and help the US debt achieve a soft landing. The US has reached tariff agreements with multiple economies, and the third - round economic and trade talks between China and the US have raised high expectations in the global financial market. This has improved the macro - factors and increased the risk appetite in the commodity market [3]. Rubber Production in Thailand and Cambodia - Thailand is the world's largest natural rubber producer, accounting for about one - third of the global total output. In 2024, its production was 466.24 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.59%. In 2025 from January to May, production was 143.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.73%. In 2024, exports were 392.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.62%. In 2025 from January to May, exports were 177.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45%. Cambodia is an emerging rubber - producing country. In 2024, its production was 40.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.93%, and exports were 39.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.65%. Thailand's annual production and exports are 11.45 times and 9.83 times that of Cambodia respectively [4]. Impact of the Conflict on Rubber Production - The conflict area between Thailand and Cambodia is mainly in Thailand's Surin Province and Cambodia's Oddar Meanchey Province. In Thailand, the rubber production in Surin Province is limited. In Cambodia, the main rubber - producing areas are not in Oddar Meanchey Province. So the conflict has a limited impact on rubber production, and the geopolitical premium in the rubber market has decreased [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The report focuses on the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures. It believes that both are likely to run weakly due to prevailing bearish factors [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information - Time cycle definitions: short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For intraday views, "oscillating strongly/weakly" is defined as a 0 - 1% increase/decrease, a decrease > 1% is a decline, and an increase > 1% is a rise. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views [1][3][4]. 3.2 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Short - term view: oscillating; Medium - term view: oscillating strongly; Intraday view: oscillating weakly; Overall reference view: running weakly. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, with the digestion of bullish factors and dominant bearish sentiment, the 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed down 1.30% to 14800 yuan/ton on Wednesday night and may maintain an oscillatingly weak trend on Thursday [1][5]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Short - term view: oscillating; Medium - term view: oscillating strongly; Intraday view: oscillating weakly; Overall reference view: running weakly. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, with the digestion of bullish factors and dominant bearish sentiment, the 2509 contract of synthetic rubber futures closed down 2.11% to 11585 yuan/ton on Wednesday night and may maintain an oscillatingly weak trend on Thursday [1][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and weak pattern. After a previous sharp rise, bulls have substantial profits. With the temporary cease - fire between Thailand and Cambodia, the geopolitical premium in the rubber market has been reversed [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to maintain a volatile and weak trend. Affected by the decline of domestic coal futures and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - The prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures are expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend. As China and the US conduct the third round of economic and trade talks in Sweden, the macro - sentiment has improved [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 640,400 tons, a 0.91% increase. The utilization rate of tire production capacity has slightly increased, but the overall shipment is flat and inventory has slightly risen. The inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers in June 2025 was 56.6%, indicating a decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of July 25, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.66%. The weekly production was 1.8989 million tons. The inventory in East and South China ports was 587,100 tons. The profit of methanol - to - olefins futures has decreased significantly [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of July 18, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 422. US crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels per day. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.169 million barrels. The net long positions in both WTI and Brent crude oil futures markets decreased significantly [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | - 200 yuan/ton | 15,010 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | - 110 yuan/ton | - 145 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2442 yuan/ton | + 0 yuan/ton | 2434 yuan/ton | + 30 yuan/ton | + 8 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 479.6 yuan/barrel | + 0.3 yuan/barrel | 515.0 yuan/barrel | + 9.1 yuan/barrel | - 35.4 yuan/barrel | - 8.8 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: There are charts related to rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire and semi - steel tire operating rate trends [17][19][21] - **Methanol**: Although not detailed in the text, it can be inferred that there are relevant charts for methanol. - **Crude Oil**: Although not detailed in the text, it can be inferred that there are relevant charts for crude oil.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents. 2. Report's Core View - Both沪胶and合成胶are expected to run strongly.沪胶期货2509合约and合成胶期货2509合约are likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Trend Information - **沪胶（RU）**: The 2509 contract of domestic沪胶期货slightly rose 0.73% to 15,085 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [5]. - **合成胶（BR）**: The domestic合成胶期货slightly rose 0.21% to 11,880 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. It is expected that the 2509 contract of合成胶期货will maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [7]. 3.2 Driving Logic - The core driving logic for both沪胶and合成胶is that the third - round economic and trade talks between China and the US were held in Sweden this week. After one - and - a - half days of negotiations, in - depth, candid and constructive exchanges were conducted on major issues of mutual concern. According to the consensus of both sides, they will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. Although there are still differences between the two sides, the financial market expects that if the talks don't succeed, they can be postponed. In any case, the macro - sentiment will improve, creating a bullish atmosphere [5][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern due to profit - taking by long positions and a collective correction in the domestic commodity futures market [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend, influenced by the decline of domestic coal futures and a weak supply - demand fundamental [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to stabilize with fluctuations as the negative impact of production increase fades, the original production increase plan is realized, and it is the peak oil - consuming season in the Northern Hemisphere [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 640,400 tons, a 0.91% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 2.70% to 75,800 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 1.42% to 564,600 tons. The inbound and outbound rates of warehouses also changed [8]. - As of July 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a 1.93 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 10.06 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a 0.25 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 3.98 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [8]. - In June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a 5.7 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year and a 3.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 11.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%, accounting for 44.3% of total new vehicle sales [9]. Methanol - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.66%, a 1.06% increase from the previous week, a 6.35% decrease from the previous month, and a 15.35% increase compared to the same period last year. The weekly average methanol production was 1.8989 million tons [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE changed to varying degrees. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.42%, and the methanol to olefin futures profit decreased significantly [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the methanol inventory in East and South China ports was 587,100 tons, a 0.89 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, a 53,000 - ton increase from the previous month, and a 254,100 - ton decrease compared to the same period last year [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 422, a decrease of 2 from the previous week and 55 from the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels, a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day from the previous week and 27,000 barrels per day year - on - year [13]. - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) was 419 million barrels, a significant decrease of 3.169 million barrels from the previous week and 17.492 million barrels from the same period last year. The refinery operating rate was 95.5% [13]. - As of July 22, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil decreased significantly compared to the previous week, while the net long positions in Brent crude oil also decreased significantly [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | - 200 yuan/ton | 15,010 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | - 110 yuan/ton | - 145 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,442 yuan/ton | + 0 yuan/ton | 2,434 yuan/ton | + 30 yuan/ton | + 8 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 479.6 yuan/barrel | + 0.3 yuan/barrel | 515.0 yuan/barrel | + 9.1 yuan/barrel | - 35.4 yuan/barrel | - 8.8 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and net position changes [17][29][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern due to profit - taking by long positions and a collective decline in the black - chain commodity futures on Monday [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend, affected by the sharp decline in domestic coal futures and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to remain in a volatile consolidation pattern, as the bearish impact of production increases has been digested, and it is currently the peak oil - consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons (0.28%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.39%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.13%. The inbound and outbound rates of both types of warehouses decreased [8]. - As of July 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a week - on - week increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points. Production in some enterprises returned to normal, but overall shipments were flat, and inventory increased slightly [8]. - In June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 11.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%, accounting for 44.3% of total new vehicle sales [9]. Methanol - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.35%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 15.35%. The weekly average methanol output was 1.8989 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 158,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 376,500 tons [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE were 29.96% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.72%), 5.31% (unchanged), 92.95% (a week - on - week increase of 0.18%), and 57.16% (a week - on - week increase of 2.32%) respectively. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.39 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.15%. The futures profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 307 yuan/ton, a significant week - on - week decrease of 225 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decrease of 218 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 587,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 254,100 tons. The inventory in East China ports was 416,700 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 29,300 tons), and in South China ports was 170,400 tons (a week - on - week increase of 20,400 tons) [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 422, a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 55. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 102,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year decrease of 27,000 barrels/day [13]. - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 419 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 3.169 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 17.492 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 21.863 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 455,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 402.5 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 200,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 95.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.6 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.9 percentage points [13]. - As of July 22, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 153,331 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 9,096 contracts and a significant decrease of 52,648 contracts compared to the June average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 227,245 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 11,576 contracts and a significant increase of 40,622 contracts compared to the June average [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,350 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 15,065 yuan/ton | - 520 yuan/ton | +285 yuan/ton | +520 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,530 yuan/ton | +30 yuan/ton | 2,404 yuan/ton | - 115 yuan/ton | +126 yuan/ton | +115 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 483.6 yuan/barrel | +0.3 yuan/barrel | 505.9 yuan/barrel | - 7.0 yuan/barrel | - 22.4 yuan/barrel | +7.3 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, etc. [17][19][21] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, domestic port methanol inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, etc. [29][31][33] - Crude Oil: Charts cover crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI and Brent crude oil net position changes, etc. [42][44][46]