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多空分歧出现,能化展开调整
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 09:10
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The rubber market has entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears after the previous bullish factors have been digested. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend [4]. - The methanol market has also entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears. The domestic methanol futures price is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend [4]. - The crude oil market has entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears. The domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber** - As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 618,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,500 tons (0.73%). The bonded area inventory increased by 5.89% to 90,000 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.09% to 528,700 tons. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 44.80%, a week - on - week drop of 14.74% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.40 percentage points. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 58.40%, a week - on - week drop of 8.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 17.80 percentage points. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4%. From January to April, the cumulative sales were about 355,000 vehicles, showing the same level as the previous year [8]. - In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8%. From January to April, the cumulative production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8% [9]. - **Methanol** - As the spring maintenance of domestic methanol plants ended, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output rebounded. As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.14%, a week - on - week increase of 3.75%, a month - on - month increase of 4.16%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 9.89%. The average weekly output was 2.0578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 87,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 352,000 tons [10]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 29.05%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was 7.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. The operating rate of acetic acid was 92.58%, a week - on - week increase of 6.78%. The operating rate of MTBE was 46.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.68%. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.72 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 4.43 percentage points. The futures profit of methanol to olefin was 289 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 151 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 348,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 256,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 123,900 tons. As of the week of May 8, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 303,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,500 tons (7.23%), a month - on - month decrease of 10,400 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 86,100 tons [11][13]. - **Crude Oil** - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 479, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 20. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 98,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 267,000 barrels per day [14]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 438.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.032 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 21.152 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 24.961 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 740,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 399 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 580,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 89.0%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 2.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 0.50 percentage points [14]. - Since May 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a weak volatile trend. As of May 6, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 175,428 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 1,781 contracts, and a significant increase of 15,065 contracts (9.39%) compared with the April average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 96,156 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 10,566 contracts, and a significant decrease of 58,149 contracts (37.68%) compared with the April average [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 15,150 yuan/ton | +300 yuan/ton | 15,090 yuan/ton | - 145 yuan/ton | +60 yuan/ton | +145 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,532 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,320 yuan/ton | - 45 yuan/ton | +212 yuan/ton | +45 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 462.0 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 460.7 yuan/barrel | - 18.6 yuan/barrel | - 27.5 yuan/barrel | +18.6 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report mentions charts such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, etc [17][19][21]. - Methanol: The report mentions charts such as methanol basis, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, etc [29][31][33]. - Crude Oil: The report mentions charts such as crude oil basis, US commercial crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent crude oil net position changes, etc [41][43][45]
橡胶甲醇原油:宏观因子乐观,能化延续强势
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 11:23
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The convergence of the 9 - 1 spread, positive macro - factors, supply reduction from Thailand's delayed rubber tapping, and improved raw material procurement in the domestic tire industry after the holiday support this view [6]. - The domestic methanol futures price may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The narrowing of the 9 - 1 spread and the improved risk appetite in the methanol futures market due to positive macro - factors contribute to this prediction [6]. - The domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The improved risk appetite in the crude oil futures market under positive macro - factors supports this outlook [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 614,200 tons, a 0.9% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 4.3% and the general trade inventory by 0.38%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 2.17 percentage points and the outbound rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points. For general trade warehouses, the inbound rate decreased by 1.16 percentage points and the outbound rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 44.80%, a 14.74% week - on - week decline and a 4.40 percentage - point year - on - year decrease. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 58.40%, a week - on - week decline of 8.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decline of 17.80 percentage points [9]. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a 19% month - on - month decrease but a 9.4% increase from the same period last year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat performance [9]. - In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 8.9% and 9.8%. From January to April, the cumulative production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.9% and 10.8%. For the first time in history, the production and sales in the first four months exceeded 10 million [10]. Methanol - As the spring maintenance of domestic methanol plants ended, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output rebounded. As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.14%, a 3.75% week - on - week increase, a 4.16% month - on - month increase, and a 9.89% year - on - year increase. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 87,800 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 352,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 29.05%, a 0.22% week - on - week decrease; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 7.65%, a 0.21% week - on - week increase; the operating rate of acetic acid was 92.58%, a 6.78% week - on - week increase; the operating rate of MTBE was 46.41%, a 4.68% week - on - week decrease. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.73%, a 2.72 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease and a 4.43 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The futures profit of methanol to olefin was 289 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase and a 151 - yuan/ton month - on - month rebound [12]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 348,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 256,800 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 123,900 tons. As of the week of May 8, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 303,900 tons, a 7.23% week - on - week increase, a month - on - month decrease of 10,400 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 86,100 tons [12][14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 479, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 20. The US daily crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 98,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 267,000 barrels/day [15]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) was 438.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.032 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 21.152 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 24.961 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 740,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 399 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 580,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 89.0%, a 0.4 - percentage - point week - on - week increase, a 2.3 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, and a 0.50 - percentage - point year - on - year increase [15]. - Since May 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile and weak pattern. As of May 6, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil decreased slightly week - on - week, while the net long positions in Brent crude oil decreased significantly week - on - week [16]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,235 yuan/ton | +240 yuan/ton | - 385 yuan/ton | - 240 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,522 yuan/ton | +57 yuan/ton | 2,365 yuan/ton | +74 yuan/ton | +157 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 451.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 479.3 yuan/barrel | +8.8 yuan/barrel | - 27.5 yuan/barrel | - 9.0 yuan/barrel | [17] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, spread, inventory, operating rate, and net position charts [18][30][42]
宝城期货原油早报-20250430
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 02:07
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2506 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday, due to the combined effects of increasing supply and weakening demand[5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - Cycle Analysis - Short - term (within a week): The trend of crude oil 2506 is volatile[1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The trend of crude oil 2506 is volatile and weak[1]. - Intraday: The trend of crude oil 2506 is volatile and weak[1][5]. 3.2 Price and Market Performance - The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract closed significantly lower by 2.07% to 478.0 yuan/barrel on Tuesday night[5]. 3.3 Driving Logic - Supply: After OPEC+ oil - producing countries increased the daily crude oil supply by 411,000 barrels in May 2025, they may further increase production in June, and Kazakhstan may not strictly abide by the compensatory production - cut plan, increasing supply pressure[5]. - Demand: In May, North American crude oil demand is in the off - season, refinery operating rates are at a low level, consumer demand is insufficient, and inventory accumulation pressure is prominent[5].
沪胶、甲醇、原油:走势与数据盘点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:54
Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic rubber futures 2509 contract decreased by 0.27% to 14,730 CNY/ton, with the 5-9 month spread widening to 180 CNY/ton [1] - Supply expectations are rising as the new cutting season approaches, while tire manufacturers face operational pressure ahead of the May Day holiday [1] Group 2: Methanol Market - Domestic methanol futures 2509 contract increased by 0.96% to 2,310 CNY/ton, with the 5-9 month spread narrowing to 79 CNY/ton [1] - Methanol production is on the rise, with weekly output averaging 1.899 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 210,100 tons [1] Group 3: Oil Market - Domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract rose by 0.83% to 498.0 CNY/barrel, with market sentiment showing mixed signals [1] - U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.46 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 360,000 barrels per day [1] Group 4: Tire Industry - The operating load of domestic tire manufacturers for all-steel tires was 65.79%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.65% [1] - The operating load for semi-steel tires was 72.36%, down 1.84 percentage points week-on-week and significantly down 8.64 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 5: Automotive Industry - In March, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.006 million and 2.915 million units, respectively, with month-on-month growth of 42.9% and 37% [1] - In Q1, cumulative automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.470 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.5% and 11.2% [1]
宝城期货原油早报-20250429
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 02:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2506 will maintain a weak and volatile trend. The main reasons are the uncertainty of OPEC+'s production plan for June in the May meeting, which increases concerns about oversupply, and the reduction in oil demand due to power outages in Spain and Portugal, along with the release of strategic oil reserves by the Spanish government [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents - **Price and Trend** - The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract closed down 1.15% at 488.5 yuan/barrel overnight on Monday [5]. - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2506 are all weak and volatile, with a reference view of weak operation [1][5]. - **Driving Logic** - The OPEC+ May meeting's uncertainty about the June production plan has led to concerns about increased oversupply pressure [5]. - Power outages in Spain and Portugal caused several refineries to close. Spain will release three - day strategic oil reserves due to about one - tenth of European oil consumption in these two countries, resulting in weakened demand and expected supply increase [5].
橡胶甲醇原油:偏多氛围占优,能化震荡偏强
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 14:43
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Monday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower. Although the macro - sentiment has improved recently, the supply of the rubber market is expected to increase, and the domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas are about to enter a new tapping season. Meanwhile, domestic tire enterprises are approaching the May Day holiday, and the operating rate is under pressure to decline, so the rubber price lacks follow - up momentum for rebound [4]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rising. However, the supply - demand fundamentals of methanol are still weak, with a significant increase in weekly production and a high operating rate of coal - to - methanol. The upward space for methanol in the future may be limited, and attention should be paid to the resistance of the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rising. After the negative impact of Kazakhstan's production increase has been digested, the crude oil market has entered a stage of long - short divergence, and the upward movement of the futures price is blocked by the 20 - day moving average. It is expected that the domestic oil price will maintain an oscillating and consolidating trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of April 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 612,500 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons or 1.08% from the previous period. As of the week of April 25, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65% and a year - on - year increase of 2.29 percentage points; the operating load of semi - steel tires was 72.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.64 percentage points. In March 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2%. In the first quarter of 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.47 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 14.5% and 11.2%. In March 2025, China's heavy - truck sales were about 105,000, a month - on - month increase of 29% and a year - on - year decrease of about 9%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 259,000, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of April 25, 2025, the average operating rate of domestic methanol was 80.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17%, a month - on - month increase of 4.72%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.14%. The average weekly production of methanol was 189,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,160 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 920 tons, and a significant increase of 21,010 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rates of formaldehyde, acetic acid, and coal (methanol) - to - olefin plants increased slightly week - on - week, while the operating rates of dimethyl ether and MTBE decreased. The futures disk profit of methanol - to - olefin decreased slightly week - on - week but rebounded significantly month - on - month. As of the week of April 18, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 450,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,700 tons. As of the week of April 24, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 309,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 260 tons [10][11][13]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of April 11, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 481, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 30 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.46 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 200,000 barrels per day and an increase of 360,000 barrels per day compared with the same period last year. As of the week of April 18, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 443.104 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 244,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was 88.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.8 percentage points. Since April 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a weak downward trend. As of April 22, 2025, the net long positions in both WTI and Brent crude oil futures markets decreased significantly week - on - week [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,550 yuan/ton | +150 yuan/ton | 14,730 yuan/ton | -220 yuan/ton | -180 yuan/ton | +220 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,485 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | 2,310 yuan/ton | +22 yuan/ton | +175 yuan/ton | -2 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 455.8 yuan/barrel | -0.1 yuan/barrel | 498.0 yuan/barrel | +0.4 yuan/barrel | -42.2 yuan/barrel | -0.6 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and net position changes, with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Research Institute [16][28][40]
宝城期货原油早报:多空分歧出现,原油震荡企稳-20250425
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 01:56
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The international crude oil market has changed suddenly. Kazakhstan, which previously promised compensatory production cuts, declared that its oil production is determined by national interests and it is not an OPEC+ producer. This makes it difficult for compensatory production cuts of OPEC+ over - producing countries to be implemented. After the short - term negative risks are digested, the prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures showed a stable and oscillating trend on Thursday night. The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract is expected to maintain a stable and oscillating trend on Friday [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog a. Time Cycle and Price Movement Definitions - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. For price movement, a decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly, an increase of 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly, and an increase greater than 1% is a rise. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views [1][3][4]. b. Crude Oil 2506 Contract Analysis - The short - term view of crude oil 2506 is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating weakly, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is a strong - running trend. There are differences in the long - and short - term directions, and the crude oil is oscillating and stabilizing [1]. c. Price and Market Analysis - The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract rebounded slightly by 1.00% to 495.4 yuan/barrel on Thursday night. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and stable trend on Friday [5].