原油期货2506合约

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多空分歧出现,能化展开调整
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 09:10
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The rubber market has entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears after the previous bullish factors have been digested. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend [4]. - The methanol market has also entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears. The domestic methanol futures price is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend [4]. - The crude oil market has entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears. The domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber** - As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 618,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,500 tons (0.73%). The bonded area inventory increased by 5.89% to 90,000 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.09% to 528,700 tons. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 44.80%, a week - on - week drop of 14.74% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.40 percentage points. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 58.40%, a week - on - week drop of 8.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 17.80 percentage points. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4%. From January to April, the cumulative sales were about 355,000 vehicles, showing the same level as the previous year [8]. - In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8%. From January to April, the cumulative production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8% [9]. - **Methanol** - As the spring maintenance of domestic methanol plants ended, the domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output rebounded. As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.14%, a week - on - week increase of 3.75%, a month - on - month increase of 4.16%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 9.89%. The average weekly output was 2.0578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 87,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 352,000 tons [10]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 29.05%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was 7.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. The operating rate of acetic acid was 92.58%, a week - on - week increase of 6.78%. The operating rate of MTBE was 46.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.68%. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.72 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 4.43 percentage points. The futures profit of methanol to olefin was 289 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 151 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 348,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 256,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 123,900 tons. As of the week of May 8, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 303,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,500 tons (7.23%), a month - on - month decrease of 10,400 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 86,100 tons [11][13]. - **Crude Oil** - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 479, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 20. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 98,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 267,000 barrels per day [14]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 438.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.032 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 21.152 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 24.961 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 740,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 399 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 580,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 89.0%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 2.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 0.50 percentage points [14]. - Since May 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a weak volatile trend. As of May 6, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 175,428 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 1,781 contracts, and a significant increase of 15,065 contracts (9.39%) compared with the April average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 96,156 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 10,566 contracts, and a significant decrease of 58,149 contracts (37.68%) compared with the April average [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 15,150 yuan/ton | +300 yuan/ton | 15,090 yuan/ton | - 145 yuan/ton | +60 yuan/ton | +145 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,532 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,320 yuan/ton | - 45 yuan/ton | +212 yuan/ton | +45 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 462.0 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 460.7 yuan/barrel | - 18.6 yuan/barrel | - 27.5 yuan/barrel | +18.6 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report mentions charts such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, etc [17][19][21]. - Methanol: The report mentions charts such as methanol basis, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, etc [29][31][33]. - Crude Oil: The report mentions charts such as crude oil basis, US commercial crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent crude oil net position changes, etc [41][43][45]
橡胶甲醇原油:宏观因子乐观,能化延续强势
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 11:23
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 从业资格证号:F0251793 投资咨询证号:Z0001617 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:chendong@bcqhgs.com 本人具有中国期货业协会授 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 5 月 14 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 宏观因子乐观 能化延续强势 核心观点 宝城期货研究所 姓名:陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 橡胶:本周三国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现放量增仓,震荡上行, 小幅收涨的走势,盘中期价重心小幅上移至 15235 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收涨 1.60%至 15235 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度收敛至 850 元/吨。中美经贸会谈取得实质性进展,宏观因子回暖,提振商品期市 乐观情绪。同时,泰国方面宣布延后今年天然橡胶开割期,将导致供 应量出现明显下降。叠加节后国内轮胎行业开工负荷修复,原料采购 有望小幅改善。在偏多氛围支撑下,预计后市国内沪胶期货 2509 ...
宝城期货原油早报-20250430
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 02:07
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-04-30 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油(SC) 日内观点:震荡偏弱 中期观点:震荡偏弱 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 原油 2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素压制,原油震荡偏弱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 参考观点:偏弱运行 核心逻辑:继今年 5 月 OPEC+产油国将日均原油供应量提高 41.1 万桶后,6 月可能进一步加大增产 力度,且哈萨克斯坦称或难严格遵守补偿性减产计划。供应压力逐渐增大让市场担忧原油过 ...
沪胶、甲醇、原油:走势与数据盘点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:54
Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic rubber futures 2509 contract decreased by 0.27% to 14,730 CNY/ton, with the 5-9 month spread widening to 180 CNY/ton [1] - Supply expectations are rising as the new cutting season approaches, while tire manufacturers face operational pressure ahead of the May Day holiday [1] Group 2: Methanol Market - Domestic methanol futures 2509 contract increased by 0.96% to 2,310 CNY/ton, with the 5-9 month spread narrowing to 79 CNY/ton [1] - Methanol production is on the rise, with weekly output averaging 1.899 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 210,100 tons [1] Group 3: Oil Market - Domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract rose by 0.83% to 498.0 CNY/barrel, with market sentiment showing mixed signals [1] - U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.46 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 360,000 barrels per day [1] Group 4: Tire Industry - The operating load of domestic tire manufacturers for all-steel tires was 65.79%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.65% [1] - The operating load for semi-steel tires was 72.36%, down 1.84 percentage points week-on-week and significantly down 8.64 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 5: Automotive Industry - In March, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.006 million and 2.915 million units, respectively, with month-on-month growth of 42.9% and 37% [1] - In Q1, cumulative automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.470 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.5% and 11.2% [1]
宝城期货原油早报-20250429
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 02:47
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 宝城期货原油早报-2025-04-29 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 原油 2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素压制,原油震荡偏弱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 原油(SC) 日内观点:震荡偏弱 中期观点:震荡偏弱 参考观点:偏弱运行 核心逻辑:欧佩克+5 月会议对 6 月产量规划悬而未决,让市场担忧供应过剩压力会进一步加重。与 此同时,本周一西班牙和葡萄牙发生了大范围停电,包括西班牙第二大炼油运营商 Moeve 运营的 ...
橡胶甲醇原油:偏多氛围占优,能化震荡偏强
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 14:43
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 4 月 28 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多氛围占优 能化震荡偏强 核心观点 宝城期货研究所 姓名:陈栋 橡胶:本周一国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现缩量减仓,震荡偏弱, 略微收低的走势,盘中期价重心小幅下移至 14730 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收低 0.27%至 14730 元/吨。5-9 月差贴水幅度扩大至 180 元/吨。虽然近期宏观情绪有所回暖,不过胶市供应预期回升,国内外 天胶产区即将迎来新一轮开割季,同时国内轮胎企业临近五一长假, 开工率面临回落压力,胶价反弹缺乏后续动力。 甲醇:本周一国内甲醇期货 2509 合约呈现放量增仓,震荡偏强, 小幅上涨的走势,期价最高上涨至 2312 元/吨一线,最低下探至 2280 元/吨,收盘时小幅上涨 0.96%至 2310 元/吨。5-9 月差贴水幅度收敛 至 79 元/吨。近期宏观情绪有所回暖,不过甲醇供需基本面依然偏弱, 周度产量大幅走高,煤制甲醇开工率居高不下,后市甲醇继续上行空 间或受限,关注上方 20 ...
宝城期货原油早报:多空分歧出现,原油震荡企稳-20250425
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 01:56
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-04-25 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 原油 2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现,原油震荡企稳 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油(SC) 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:震荡偏弱 参考观点:偏强运行 核心逻辑:国际原油市场风云突变,此前承诺作出补偿性减产的哈萨克斯坦宣称该国石油产量水平 由国家利益决定,不是 OPEC+产油国。哈萨 ...