查看完整报告 点击注册小程序 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 根据人行官网1月26日的信息，人民银行2026年宏观审慎工作会议提出"创新丰富政策工具箱"。我们认 为，这较有可能是近期市场中关于"央行有可能会创设新的货币政策工具"讨论的触发点。实际上，关于向 市场主体提供流动性的工具，潘功胜行长在2025金融街论坛年会上的主题演讲便已表示"我们正在考虑的 一个问题是，综合平衡维护金融市场稳定运行和防范金融市场道德风险，探索在特定情景下向非银机构提 供流动性的机制性安排"。 需要注意的是，上述机制是"在特定情景下"的，而不是日常性的；是从宏观审慎角度出发的，不是用于精 准调控货币市场利率的。在金融市场失灵阶段，央行既可以（通过SPV等间接）向非银金融机构提供资金 支持（包括申购资管产品的份额 ...

特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 【宏观】一季度美联储重启降息概率不高——2026年1月FOMC会议点评 本次议息会议如期暂缓降息，符合市场预期。从原因看，当前美国就业市场逐步企稳，金融市场流动性紧张问 题也得到缓解，但通胀尚未迎来下行拐点。因此，鲍威尔选择放慢降息节奏、"边走边看"，以防止较大的通胀 反弹风险。展望看，预计美联储降息将前紧后松，待新任美联储主席上台后重新加快降息节奏，且按照鲍威尔 的推测，如果关税通胀在今年年中迎来拐点，美联储也将更有信心进行降息。 （赵格格/周欣平） 2026-01-29 鉴于我国非银金融部门（特别是资产管理类主体）在风险传染过程中扮演着愈发重要的角色，且其（相较 于存款类金融机构）更容易受到债券市场利率、流动性和信用 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The necessity of the central bank creating a new monetary policy tool for precise regulation of money market interest rates is not high, as the current money market interest rates are running stably, and there are already similar tools [1]. - Even if such a new tool is created, it will not have a significant impact on bond market interest rates, as it will neither change the anchoring method of the bond market nor the operating characteristics of DR001 [2]. - There is no urgent need to create a liquidity - absorbing tool similar to the Fed's ON RRP in China, as DR001 has never "broken through" the lower corridor of the interest - rate corridor [2]. - The discussion about the central bank creating a new monetary policy tool may be triggered by the People's Bank of China's proposal to "innovate and enrich the policy toolbox" at the 2026 macro - prudential work conference. However, the mechanism proposed by Governor Pan Gongsheng is for specific scenarios and macro - prudential purposes, not for precise regulation of money market interest rates, and its necessity is greater than that of the so - called "new tool" for precise regulation [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Recent Speculation on "Newly Established Monetary Policy Tools" - **Unnecessary to create new tools for precise regulation of money market rates**: Since the second half of 2025 to January 28, 2026, the average value of DR001 was 1.35%, close to the 7D OMO rate of 1.4%. In 2025, the standard deviation of DR001 was 0.20, at a low level since 2019. There are already similar tools, such as the overnight temporary repo operations established in 2024. If necessary, the spread can be compressed instead of creating a new tool [1]. - **No significant impact on bond market rates if new tools are created**: DR interest rate is the anchor of bond market valuation. A new tool will neither change the anchoring method of the bond market nor the operating characteristics of DR001 [2]. - **No urgent need to create a liquidity - absorbing tool**: The Fed created ON RRP to solve the problem of the ineffective lower corridor of the interest - rate corridor due to excessive liquidity. In China, DR001 has never "broken through" the lower corridor (excess reserve interest rate), so there is no urgent need for such a tool [2]. - **Trigger of the speculation**: The People's Bank of China's proposal to "innovate and enrich the policy toolbox" at the 2026 macro - prudential work conference may have triggered the market discussion. Governor Pan Gongsheng mentioned exploring a mechanism to provide liquidity to non - bank institutions in specific scenarios, but this is for macro - prudential purposes, not for precise regulation of money market rates [3][4].