Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 4 日星期三 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周二国债期货主力合约开盘全线低开，早盘小幅探底后震荡上涨，午后小幅上涨后 窄幅波动，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 下跌 0.10%，10 年期 T2603 | | | | | 上涨 0.02%，5 年期 TF2603 上涨 0.06%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.03%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 1055 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 4020 亿元逆 | | | | | 回 ...

2026 年 1 月 29 日 总量研究 近期"新设货币政策工具"的猜想 ——2026 年 1 月 29 日利率债观察 要点 1、近期"新设货币政策工具"的猜想 近期，部分市场投资者猜测央行有可能会创设新的货币政策工具，用于更加精准 地调控货币市场利率。但我们认为，当前货币市场利率运行稳健，创设该工具的 必要性并不大。从利率水平上看，自 2025 年下半年至昨日（注：2026 年 1 月 28 日），DR001 的均值为 1.35%，处于 1.4%的 7D OMO 利率（注：即政策利 率）附近。从利率的波动率上看，2025 年 DR001 的标准差为 0.20，亦处于自 2019 年以来的较低水平。而且，当前我国已经类似的工具。人民银行于 2024 年 7 月 8 日设立了隔夜期限的临时正、逆回购操作，操作利率为 7D OMO 利率 减点 20bp 和加点 50bp。即便需要强化临时正、逆回购工具对 DR001 的"框定" 作用，那么直接压缩上述减、加点幅度即可，而没有必要再创设出个类似的工具。 退一步讲，倘若此时创设出这样一个工具，那么对债券市场利率亦不会有明显影 响。DR 利率是债券市场估值的锚，近些年 ...

北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）1月23日，中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1250亿元逆回购操 作，期限7天，操作利率1.40%，投标量1250亿元，中标量1250亿元。Wind数据显示，当日有867亿元逆 回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放383亿元。 除了短期流动性投放外，同日人民银行还开展9000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，期限为1年期。鉴 于当月有2000亿元MLF到期，人民银行1月通过MLF净投放7000亿元，进一步改善了市场流动性的期限 结构。 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 700 billion yuan reverse repo operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months, indicating a loose monetary policy approach [2] - On the same day, the PBOC conducted a 1,175 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan due to the maturity of 4,753 billion yuan in reverse repos [2] - The PBOC's actions reflect a "long-short combination" liquidity management strategy, aiming to stabilize market liquidity expectations while providing support for year-end liquidity management [2] Group 2 - In October, the PBOC achieved a net injection of 20 billion yuan through open market treasury transactions, indicating a gradual restoration of treasury transactions as a regular liquidity adjustment tool [2] - The PBOC's Deputy Governor Lu Lei emphasized the importance of adjusting policy support based on domestic and international economic conditions, ensuring effective implementation of monetary policy tools [2] - According to a report by CITIC Securities, the liquidity gap is expected to narrow to around 100 billion yuan in November, with low volatility in funding rates anticipated due to the PBOC's recent resumption of treasury transactions [3] Group 3 - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng highlighted the need to optimize the basic currency issuance mechanism and maintain reasonable growth in financial aggregates in a recent article [3] - The focus is on enhancing the role of policy interest rates and narrowing the width of the short-term interest rate corridor to improve the transmission of monetary policy to market rates [3]

Core Points - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 165.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40% and a 14-day reverse repo operation of 600 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 411.5 billion yuan into the market [1] - This week, the PBOC has executed a total of 1.5674 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, 900 billion yuan in 14-day reverse repos, and 600 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations, leading to a net injection of 940.6 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for overnight and 7-day tenors has decreased significantly, while the 14-day tenor has seen a slight increase [1][2] Interest Rate Summary - The overnight Shibor fell by 15.10 basis points to 1.3210% [3] - The 7-day Shibor decreased by 8.30 basis points to 1.5010% [3] - The 14-day Shibor increased by 2.10 basis points to 1.6460% [3] Repo Market Overview - In the repo market, the weighted average rates for overnight and 7-day repos have decreased, while the 14-day repos saw a slight increase [5] - The weighted average rate for overnight repos (DR001) fell by 15.7 basis points to 1.3182%, with a transaction volume decrease of 507.3 billion yuan [5] - The weighted average rate for 7-day repos (R001) decreased by 18.5 basis points to 1.3344%, with a transaction volume decrease of 3.641 trillion yuan [5] Market Conditions - The funding environment was balanced in the morning and slightly loose in the afternoon, with overnight transactions around 1.40%-1.45% [9] - A total of 34 interbank certificates of deposit were issued on September 26, with an actual issuance amount of 52 billion yuan [9][10] Regulatory Developments - The PBOC, along with the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, announced support for foreign institutional investors to engage in bond repurchase transactions in the Chinese bond market [12] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced similar support for foreign investors participating in onshore bond repurchase transactions, enhancing liquidity access [12]

Core Viewpoint - The LPR rates for September remain unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, consistent since May, indicating a stable monetary policy environment in China [1][4]. Summary by Sections LPR Rates - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both unchanged for five consecutive months [4]. - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the consistent 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which has remained at 1.40% since May [4]. Market Expectations - Analysts expected the LPR to remain unchanged, aligning with market predictions [3][4]. - Factors such as rising market interest rates and banks' low net interest margins have reduced the motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes [4]. Economic Context - Recent macroeconomic data has shown declines in consumption, investment, and industrial production due to various factors, including extreme weather and external fluctuations [5]. - The fiscal policy has been strengthened, with a target deficit rate of 4.0% and an issuance of 2.9 trillion yuan in government bonds, contributing to the current economic environment [5]. Future Monetary Policy Outlook - There is potential for a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the fourth quarter, driven by the need to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [6][7]. - The recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve may provide more room for China's monetary policy to adopt a looser stance [6][7]. Central Bank's Position - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a supportive monetary policy stance, aiming to create a favorable environment for economic recovery and financial market stability [8][9]. - The central bank's approach is data-driven, adjusting policies based on macroeconomic conditions and trends [9].

Core Points - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 230 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on September 12, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [1] - A total of 1,961 billion yuan was net injected into the market this week, with 12,645 billion yuan in reverse repos conducted and 10,684 billion yuan maturing [1] - The overnight and 7-day Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) slightly decreased, while the 14-day Shibor saw a minor increase [1][2] Monetary Market Rates - In the interbank pledged repo market, most rates experienced slight declines, with R007 transaction share dropping to 9.5% [3] - The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 decreased by 0.6 basis points and 1.1 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes dropping significantly [3] - The weighted average rates for DR007 and R007 also fell, while DR014 saw a slight increase [3] Funding Conditions - The funding environment was reported to be loose, with overnight and 7-day rates showing a downward trend [7] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit reached 154.03 billion yuan on September 12, with a generally positive trading sentiment in the primary market [8] Financial Statistics - As of the end of August, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 331.98 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year [10] - The total social financing stock was reported at 433.66 trillion yuan, also reflecting an 8.8% year-on-year increase [11] - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first eight months was 26.56 trillion yuan, surpassing the previous year's figures [12]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 405.8 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net liquidity withdrawal of 174.5 billion yuan due to 580.3 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) saw a net injection of 300 billion yuan this month, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased MLF operations, with a total of 600 billion yuan injected in August [1] - The net liquidity injection of 600 billion yuan in mid-August is the largest since February, indicating a continued moderately loose monetary policy stance [1] Group 2 - The focus of current monetary policy is shifting towards effective implementation and flexibility, with a low probability of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the short term [2] - The PBOC is likely to maintain market liquidity through reverse repos and MLF, with expectations for further increases in MLF operations [2] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed a slight decline across short-term maturities, with overnight Shibor down by 3.9 basis points to 1.3170% [2]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation amounting to 283.2 billion yuan, with a bidding volume of 283.2 billion yuan and a winning amount of 283.2 billion yuan [1] - The operation interest rate was set at 1.40%, remaining unchanged from previous rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation amounting to 214.8 billion yuan on July 22, 2025, using a fixed interest rate and quantity tendering method [1] Group 1 - The operation was aimed at providing liquidity to the financial system [1] - The fixed interest rate and quantity tendering method indicates a strategic approach to manage monetary policy [1] - The amount of 214.8 billion yuan reflects a significant intervention in the market [1]