证券研究报告 金融行业周报 ——政治局会议召开，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策 证券分析师 袁喆奇S1060520080003（证券投资咨询） 李冰婷S1060520040002（证券投资咨询） 许 淼S1060525020001（证券投资咨询） 研究助理 李灵琇S1060124070021（一般证券业务） 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2026年3月2日 1 核心观点 政治局会议召开，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策 1、政治局会议召开，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策。2月27日，中共中央政治局召开会议，研究"十五五"规划纲要草案及《政府 工作报告》稿，强调实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，着力扩大内需、发展新质生产力并防范风险。会议明确"十 四五"规划主要目标任务胜利完成，明确"十五五"是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期。会议明确实施更 加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，强化改革举措与宏观政策协同。要着力建设强大国内市场，加紧培育壮大 新动能，加快高水平科技自立自强。 3、央行发布《关于银行业金融机构人民币跨境同业融资业务有关事宜的通知》。2月26日，央行发布该通知，支持境内银行 ...

2026.02. 05 非银机构被纳入监管核心范畴，背后有着深刻的市场逻辑。非银金融机构目前管理着数十万亿元资产，在债市、股市、衍生品市场上扮演着重要的交易 角色。 本文字数：2700，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 中国人民银行近期召开2026年宏观审慎工作会议，明确了下一阶段宏观审慎管理的核心方向：持续完善宏观审慎和金融稳定委员会工作机制，逐步拓展 宏观审慎政策覆盖范围，前瞻性研判系统性金融风险隐患，创新丰富政策工具箱。 这一部署，也引发市场广泛关注，关于"央行或将创设新的货币政策工具"的讨论持续升温。 当前，我国宏观审慎管理已正式迈入"全面覆盖"与"事前防范"的新范式，其中针对非银金融机构的流动性支持机制建设成为市场聚焦的议题。多位受访 专家对第一财经表示，这一流动性支持机制是"在特定情景下"的应急安排，创设此类工具属于防范系统性金融风险的未雨绸缪之举，体现了宏观审慎管 理的前瞻性思维。 宏观审慎监管升级 回溯我国宏观审慎管理的发展脉络，政策演进的逻辑清晰可循。 2023年至2024年，央行政策重心以防御性监管与防范重点领域风险为主，通过优化宏观审慎压力测试机制、强化系统重要性银行及金融控 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The global economic and financial situation is complex and volatile, with various factors affecting different markets. In the commodity market, precious metals experience significant price fluctuations, and there are supply - demand imbalances in some metals. In the financial market, the bond market is in a state of shock, and the stock market shows a mixed performance. International trade relations also have an impact on the market, such as the potential tariff adjustments between countries [5][21][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - In December 2025, China's GDP growth rate slowed down, the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs showed different trends, and the social financing scale decreased compared with the previous month. The growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 also changed, and consumer and producer prices showed different trends. Fixed - asset investment decreased year - on - year, while consumption and trade maintained growth but with varying degrees of slowdown [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warns of market risks due to complex international situations. Some funds and banks adjust relevant parameters, and there are changes in commodity base - spreads. In addition, the Fed's interest - rate decisions and international trade tariff policies also affect the market [2][3][4]. 3.2.2 Metals - Precious metals experience a "roller - coaster" price movement. Gold jewelry prices reach a record high, and there are different outlooks for the gold market in the short - and long - term. The copper market is expected to have supply shortages in 2026 and 2027, and there are changes in the inventories of various metals [5][6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coking, Steel and Minerals - China's stainless - steel production increased in 2025, while imports decreased. India explores coal reserves in Canada, and Brazil raises steel import tariffs. The Trump administration retreats from the plan to guarantee the minimum price of key mineral projects [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Venezuela reforms its petroleum law to allow private and foreign investment. The US imposes potential tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba [9][10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The Chinese government conducts spring seed market inspections. There are changes in US soybean sales, EU crop production forecasts, and Brazil's coffee - baking industry revenue [11][12]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank conducts 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds into the market [13]. 3.3.2 Key News - China and the UK reach a series of cooperation agreements, including in the financial field and tariff reduction. China promotes service - consumption growth, and there are positive developments in Sino - US economic and trade consultations. There are also news in areas such as transportation, culture and tourism, and finance [15][16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - The Chinese bond market is in a state of shock, with different performances of short - and long - term bonds. There are price changes in exchange - traded bonds, and the convertible - bond market shows a decline. Interest rates in the money market and bond - issuing yields also have different trends [21][22][24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar change, and the US dollar index declines, while most non - US currencies rise [26]. 3.3.5 Research Reports - Different securities firms have different views on the Fed's interest - rate decisions, short - term debt pricing, and the bond market [27]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - There are a large number of bond listings, issuances, payments, and principal - and - interest repayments on January 30, 2026 [29]. 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market shows a narrow - range consolidation, with the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index and the decline of other indices. The liquor, gold, oil and gas, and real - estate sectors perform strongly, while some high - tech sectors decline. The Hong Kong stock market also shows a mixed performance, with the rise of the Hang Seng Index and the decline of the Hang Seng Tech Index [30].

2026年1月27日至29日，中国人民银行在天津主办东亚及太平洋地区央行行长会议组织（EMEAP）第20 次亚太地区银行监管高级别会议。潘功胜指出，当前跨机构、跨市场、跨部门风险已成为金融业面临的 主要风险，各经济体要在加强微观监管的同时，持续完善宏观审慎监管框架。近年来，中国不断丰富和 完善宏观审慎政策工具箱，加强对系统重要性金融机构的监管、探索开展金融市场宏观审慎管理，取得 了积极成效。EMEAP成员要重视宏观审慎监管，继续落实已议定的国际金融监管规则，加强在国际金 融治理问题上的协调，形成区域合力。（中国人民银行） ...

文/ 清华大学国家金融研究院新结构金融学研究中心副主任 沙楠 ，清华大学五 道口金融学院讲席教授、南方科技大学商学院讲席教授 周皓 美联储政策制定过程不能完全脱离美国政治与意识形态的影响，尤其国会 可对其决策展开质询和监督，这些都极其考验美联储决策层，特别是主席 平衡的艺术，即在维护独立性的同时，如何考量金融监管职能扩大对货币 政策的影响，如何在党派分歧加剧背景下避免政治干扰，如何抑制通胀的 同时避免经济衰退等。基于此，本文将以美联储重大变革为脉络，梳理独 立性的演变，并对其前景进行展望。 2025年美国总统特朗普上任以来，政治方面的压力正试图对美联储的决策过程产生影响，诸如其对美联储理事库克提出解职要求，其提名新任理事人选米 兰的快速入职，美联储下任主席遴选程序的高调启动，以及政府内阁成员对联储利率政策的公开且频繁评论，等等，相关事件接连上演，频次密集，这对 美联储的独立性地位带来一定的挑战。而中央银行的独立性一旦受损，美元信用的基础将被削弱，金融市场也必将迎来动荡。可以说，独立性正是美联储 如今具有极高信誉度和广泛影响力的基石与核心所在。 美联储成立至今已有百余年历史，其独立性地位并非一蹴而就。在此过程中 ...

Core Insights - The discussion at the 2025 Bund Annual Conference highlighted the varying impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) across different industries, with a particular focus on the banking sector, where AI builds on decades of information technology advancements, presenting new development opportunities and significant marginal changes [1][2] Group 1: AI's Impact on Monetary Policy - The former governor of the People's Bank of China, Zhou Xiaochuan, indicated that the influence of AI on central banking functions, especially monetary policy and macroprudential regulation, requires further observation and research [1] - During his tenure, discussions at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) concluded that the impact of AI on monetary policy was not yet evident, despite AI's potential to affect data collection and processing related to price and micro-behavior [1] - Zhou noted that monetary policy is a slow variable that adjusts with economic cycles, which do not change rapidly, suggesting a disconnect between AI's fast-paced data processing and the slower nature of monetary policy adjustments [1] Group 2: Regulatory Challenges and International Cooperation - There is a growing call for transparency and explainability in AI models used by financial institutions, but the complexity of machine learning and deep learning may lead to "black box" models that pose regulatory challenges [1] - Zhou emphasized the need to address the potential mismatch between AI models that utilize high-frequency data and the long-term stability required for financial soundness and macroeconomic control [2] - He also pointed out the potential for international cooperation in enhancing AI infrastructure within the financial sector, which could lay the groundwork for future collaborative efforts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The financial industry is at a transformative crossroads due to the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), which is seen as a significant marginal change rather than just a technological tool [2] Group 1: Evolution of Banking - The nature of the banking industry has fundamentally changed over the past 60 to 70 years, evolving from traditional banking to a data processing industry [2] - Core banking functions such as payment, pricing, risk measurement, and marketing now heavily rely on data analysis and model computation [2] - The relationship between humans and machines has shifted from human-led to machine-led, with humans primarily acting as interfaces between machines and customers [2] Group 2: Impact of AI on Employment - The application of AI in banking is expected to significantly reduce the workforce size due to the reliance on data analysis and reasoning models [2] - Customer behavior has evolved, with more clients preferring machine interactions over human involvement, further driving AI's role in banking [2] Group 3: Opportunities and Challenges in Regulation - AI presents both opportunities and challenges in regulatory frameworks, particularly in areas like anti-money laundering, where machine learning can identify suspicious activities from vast datasets [3] - In financial stability, machine learning may help predict critical moments in the market, but it requires handling unstructured data and social sentiment [3] Group 4: Transparency and Policy Implications - The "black box" nature of AI models conflicts with the need for transparency in regulatory requirements, and over-reliance on short-term data can lead to misalignment with long-term financial stability [4] - AI's influence on central bank policies, particularly the dual-pillar framework of monetary policy and macroprudential regulation, requires further observation and research [4] - While AI can enhance data collection and analysis for monetary policy decisions, the slow nature of monetary policy adjustments necessitates a cautious approach to avoid unnecessary volatility [4]

Core Insights - The evolution of the U.S. financial regulatory system reflects a history of crisis reflection and reform balancing, significantly impacting global financial regulation [1] Group 1: Formation of Dual Regulatory Framework - The U.S. financial regulatory framework is characterized by the coexistence of state and federal regulation, which developed over time from the initial state-centric governance to a more significant federal role [2][3] Group 2: Impact of Major Financial Crises - The 1929 Great Depression led to fundamental changes in the regulatory framework, including the establishment of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the separation of commercial and investment banking [4][5] - The 2008 financial crisis prompted a comprehensive review and reform of the financial regulatory system, addressing issues of regulatory gaps and overlaps [6][7] Group 3: Evolution of Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve, established in 1913, has evolved to play a central role in maintaining financial stability and supervising financial institutions, with its responsibilities expanding significantly over the decades [8][9] - The Dodd-Frank Act enhanced the Federal Reserve's role in macroprudential regulation and systemic risk prevention, allowing it to oversee systemically important financial institutions [10] Group 4: Emergency Measures During COVID-19 - In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. regulatory agencies implemented emergency measures, including a $2 trillion stimulus package and various liquidity support programs to stabilize the economy [11][12][13] - The extensive economic relief measures, while stabilizing the economy, have also contributed to rising inflation, presenting ongoing challenges for the Federal Reserve [14]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have introduced the "Financial Infrastructure Supervision Management Measures" to enhance the regulatory framework for financial infrastructure, effective from October 1, 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The new measures aim to establish a unified and efficient regulatory framework for financial infrastructure, addressing the complexity and openness of the current financial system [1][2]. - The measures include 6 chapters and 37 articles, focusing on the regulation of financial infrastructure operations, risk management, and corporate governance [1][2]. - The introduction of the concept of "systemically important financial infrastructure" and its recognition standards is a significant aspect of the new regulations [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on Financial Market - The implementation of the measures is expected to positively impact the financial market by enhancing the transparency and efficiency of core processes such as clearing, settlement, and registration [2]. - In the long term, a well-structured and effectively governed financial infrastructure will support cross-border financial cooperation and the internationalization of the Renminbi, increasing China's influence in global financial rule-making [2][3]. Group 3: Compliance and Enforcement - Financial infrastructure operators are required to operate with licenses, and illegal establishment or provision of financial infrastructure services is strictly prohibited [3]. - The measures emphasize a collaborative regulatory approach, ensuring compliance and stability in the operation of financial infrastructure [3]. - The ongoing efforts will focus on building a resilient financial infrastructure system that supports high-quality economic development [3].

Core Viewpoint - The "Financial Infrastructure Supervision and Management Measures" has been approved and will take effect on October 1, 2025, aiming to strengthen the regulation and construction of financial infrastructure in China [1][3]. Group 1: Definition and Importance of Financial Infrastructure - Financial infrastructure includes systems for asset registration, clearing and settlement, trading facilities, important payment systems, and credit systems, serving as a crucial backbone for financial market operations [2]. - The establishment of a robust financial infrastructure is essential for ensuring the safety and efficiency of financial markets, especially in the context of complex international environments and rapid financial technology advancements [2][9]. Group 2: Regulatory Framework - The management of financial infrastructure will follow the principle of "who approves, who supervises, who is responsible," with specific regulatory responsibilities assigned to the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the People's Bank of China [4][5]. - The new measures will integrate financial infrastructure regulation into a macro-prudential regulatory framework, enhancing collaboration among regulatory bodies [5]. Group 3: Entry Requirements for Financial Infrastructure Operators - Financial infrastructure operators must be legally established entities in China, with clear governance structures, adequate capital, and necessary operational facilities [8]. - Foreign financial infrastructure providers must meet specific conditions, including a minimum of three years of operational experience and compliance with regulatory standards in their home countries [8]. Group 4: Risk Management - The measures emphasize the need for a robust risk management framework to identify, measure, monitor, and manage various risks associated with financial infrastructure operations [9]. - Financial infrastructure operators are encouraged to establish risk management committees based on relevant principles, allowing flexibility in their governance structures [9].