宏观日报 | 2025-07-10 宏观宽松延续，国债期货大多收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀：5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The central bank's continuous net investment maintains loose market liquidity, and the term spread further widens, reflecting the certain expectation of short - term liquidity easing. Amid complex overseas situations and domestic stock market fluctuations, the bond market still has short - term repair momentum. In the medium and long term, supported by a weak economic fundamental and loose policies, the foundation for a bond market bull market remains. In the short term, the bond market will continue to fluctuate due to the game between loose capital and supply disturbances. The market's focus is gradually shifting to the Politburo meeting in July and the evolution of Sino - US trade relations, and future policy directions and external disturbances will dominate the trend [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.20% and a year - on - year change of - 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.30% [8]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan (+0.51%); M2 year - on - year is 7.90%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% (-1.25%); the manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% (+0.40%) [8]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.52, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.02 (-0.02%); the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1710, with a day - on - day increase of 0.000 (+0.00%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.46, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.00 (-0.21%); DR007 is 1.46, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.00 (-0.17%); R007 is 1.64, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.12 (-6.66%); the inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) 3M is 1.53, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.64%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.06, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (+0.64%) [8]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant data charts include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the maturity yield trends of treasury bonds of various terms, the valuation changes of treasury bonds of various terms in the recent day, the precipitation fund trends of various treasury bond futures varieties, the position ratio of various treasury bond futures varieties, the net position ratio of the top 20 in various treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in various treasury bond futures varieties, the trading - to - position ratio of various treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [10][17][24]. III. Overview of the Money Market Capital Situation - Relevant data charts include the bond lending turnover and the total position of treasury bond futures, the interest rate corridor, the central bank's open - market operations, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase transactions, and the issuance of local bonds [28][32][37]. IV. Spread Overview - Relevant data charts include the inter - term spread trends of various treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and the spread between spot bond spreads and futures spreads (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [41][43][44]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant data charts include the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [46][49][57]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant data charts include the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [56][59]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant data charts include the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [63][66]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant data charts include the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [71][74][77].

国债期货日报 | 2025-07-08 宏观宽松延续，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀 ...