| 33738R118 | FIRST TRUST NASDAQ | | --- | --- | | | TECHNOLOGY INDEX | | 90137N106 | 21SHARES DOGECOIN ETF S | | | BEN INT | | 30151E723 | EXCHANGE LISTED FDS TR | | | ETC CABANA TA | | 上午5:44 · 2025年9月23日 | (i) | | ● 218 ● 回复 心 复制链接 | | | | 查理 90 多同复 使用机 一次 面 相 经济 | 文章来源：公众号梨花一枝香 本周初的下跌使狗狗币酝酿了 5 个月的突破受到质疑，为狗狗币价格看涨预测创造了决定性时刻。 由于整个市场的清算事件，该meme 币自周末以来已下跌 11%，但更广泛的叙事继续支持对第四季度的乐观情绪。 9 月份通胀降温增强了继续降息的理由，尽管今天的美联储会议将对定下基调起到关键作用。 由于市场预期年底前将再度放松 0.50% 的政策，因此爆发式增长具有强大的支撑，从而刺激对 DOGE 等风险资产的需求。 与此同时，狗狗币通过 21Shares 获得第二 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's continuous net investment maintains loose market liquidity, and the term spread further widens, reflecting the certain expectation of short - term liquidity loosening. Amid complex overseas situations and domestic stock market fluctuations, the bond market still has short - term repair momentum. In the medium and long term, with a weak economic fundamentals and supportive loose policies, the foundation for a bond market bull market remains. In the short term, the bond market will continue to fluctuate due to the game between loose funding and supply disturbances, but market focus is gradually shifting to the Politburo meeting in July and the evolution of Sino - US trade relations, and future policy stances and external disturbances will dominate the market direction [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; monthly PPI has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan (+0.51%); M2 year - on - year is 7.90%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% (-1.25%); manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% (+0.40%) [8] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.49, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.03 (-0.03%); the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1819, with a day - on - day increase of 0.011 (+0.15%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.46, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.62%); DR007 is 1.48, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.90%); R007 is 1.68, with a day - on - day increase of 0.04 (+2.35%); the 3 - month yield of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit is 1.54, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.50%); the 1 - year AA - AAA credit spread is 0.06, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (+0.50%) [8] 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Figures include the closing price trend of the continuous main contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the maturity yield trend of treasury bonds with different terms, the valuation change of treasury bonds with different terms in the past day, the trend of the precipitation funds of each treasury bond futures variety, the proportion of the open interest of each treasury bond futures variety, the net open - interest proportion of the top 20 traders in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - to - short open - interest ratio of the top 20 traders in each treasury bond futures variety, the trading - to - open - interest ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the bond lending turnover and the total open interest of treasury bond futures, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [10][13][15][16][19][22][24] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Figures include the interest rate corridor, central bank open - market operations, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit, the statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase transactions, and the issuance of local government bonds [29][31][34] 4. Spread Overview - Figures include the inter - delivery spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety, and the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the cross - variety spread of futures (4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, 2*TS - 3*TF + T) [38][40][41][43] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [43][45][53] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [52][55] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [60][62] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [67][70][73]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The central bank's continuous net investment maintains loose market liquidity, and the term spread further widens, reflecting the certain expectation of short - term liquidity easing. Amid complex overseas situations and domestic stock market fluctuations, the bond market still has short - term repair momentum. In the medium and long term, supported by a weak economic fundamental and loose policies, the foundation for a bond market bull market remains. In the short term, the bond market will continue to fluctuate due to the game between loose capital and supply disturbances. The market's focus is gradually shifting to the Politburo meeting in July and the evolution of Sino - US trade relations, and future policy directions and external disturbances will dominate the trend [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.20% and a year - on - year change of - 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.30% [8]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan (+0.51%); M2 year - on - year is 7.90%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% (-1.25%); the manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% (+0.40%) [8]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.52, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.02 (-0.02%); the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1710, with a day - on - day increase of 0.000 (+0.00%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.46, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.00 (-0.21%); DR007 is 1.46, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.00 (-0.17%); R007 is 1.64, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.12 (-6.66%); the inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) 3M is 1.53, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.64%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.06, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (+0.64%) [8]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant data charts include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the maturity yield trends of treasury bonds of various terms, the valuation changes of treasury bonds of various terms in the recent day, the precipitation fund trends of various treasury bond futures varieties, the position ratio of various treasury bond futures varieties, the net position ratio of the top 20 in various treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in various treasury bond futures varieties, the trading - to - position ratio of various treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [10][17][24]. III. Overview of the Money Market Capital Situation - Relevant data charts include the bond lending turnover and the total position of treasury bond futures, the interest rate corridor, the central bank's open - market operations, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase transactions, and the issuance of local bonds [28][32][37]. IV. Spread Overview - Relevant data charts include the inter - term spread trends of various treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and the spread between spot bond spreads and futures spreads (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [41][43][44]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant data charts include the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [46][49][57]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant data charts include the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [56][59]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant data charts include the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [63][66]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant data charts include the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [71][74][77].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's continuous net investment maintains loose market liquidity, and the term spread further widens, reflecting a certain expectation of short - term liquidity loosening. - Amid complex overseas situations and domestic stock market fluctuations, the bond market still has short - term repair momentum. In the medium and long term, supported by a weak economic fundamental and loose policies, the foundation for a bond market bull market remains. - In the short term, the bond market will continue to fluctuate due to the game between loose capital and supply disturbances. The market's focus is gradually shifting to the Politburo meeting in July and the evolution of Sino - US trade relations. Future policy stances and external disturbances will dominate the market direction [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month and 0.10% year - on - year; China's PPI (monthly) decreased by 0.40% month - on - month and 3.30% year - on - year [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale reached 426.16 trillion yuan, with an increase of 2.16 trillion yuan (0.51%) month - on - month; M2 year - on - year growth rate was 7.90%, a decrease of 0.10% (1.25%) month - on - month; Manufacturing PMI was 49.70%, an increase of 0.20% (0.40%) month - on - month [9]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.54, up 0.56 (0.58%) day - on - day; The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1710, up 0.012 (0.16%) day - on - day; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.46, up 0.04 (2.46%) day - on - day; DR007 was 1.47, up 0.04 (3.08%) day - on - day; R007 was 1.64, down 0.12 (6.66%) day - on - day; The yield of 3 - month AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.52, up 0.00 (0.13%) day - on - day; The 1 - year AA - AAA credit spread was 0.06, down 0.01 (0.13%) day - on - day [9]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report provides figures on the closing price trends of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the maturity yield trends of treasury bonds of various terms, the valuation changes of treasury bonds of various terms in the past day, the precipitation funds trends of various treasury bond futures varieties, the position - holding ratios of various treasury bond futures varieties, the net position - holding ratios (top 20) of various treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short position - holding ratios (top 20) of various treasury bond futures varieties, and the trading - to - position ratios of various treasury bond futures varieties [12][16][18][19][22]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Capital Situation - The report presents figures on the bond lending turnover and the total position - holding volume of treasury bond futures, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, the treasury bond issuance situation, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit, the inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and the local government bond issuance situation [28][30][32][35]. 4. Spread Overview - The report includes figures on the inter - term spread trends of various treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and the spread between the spot - bond spread and the futures spread (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [39][40][41][42]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides figures on the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [44][48][55]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report offers figures on the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [54][57]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows figures on the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [62][65]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents figures on the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [71][74][77]. Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: With the decline of repurchase interest rates and the fluctuating prices of treasury bond futures, the 2509 contract is neutral. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure. Short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].