证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 金融产品周报 20260315 部分热门板块短期承压，中期仍然看好 2026 年 03 月 15 日 [Table_Summary] A 股市场行情概述：（2026.3.9-2026.3.13） 市场行情展望：（2026.3.16-2026.3.20） ◼ 观点：部分热门板块短期承压，中期仍然看好。 基金配置建议： 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 执业证书：S0600524120016 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《平滑投放后，3 月份贷款或季节性 冲量——2026 年 2 月金融数据点评 》 2026-03-13 《美国 2 月 CPI："好戏"在后头— —2026 年 2 月美国 CPI 数据点评》 2026-03-12 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] ◼ 权益类 ETF 基金规模变化统计：规模变化排名前三名的权益类 ETF 类 型分别为：策略指数 ETF（74.97 亿元），跨境行业指数 ETF（20.83 亿 元 ...

Macro Strategy - The market is currently in a structural chaos phase, but the overall index remains stable. The macro timing model for February 2026 has a score of 0, indicating a 78.57% probability of an increase in the A-share index over the next month, with an average increase of 3.37% [1][2][24] - There is a notable inflow of funds into sectors such as telecommunications, chips, chemicals, and oil and petrochemicals, while broad-based ETFs are experiencing outflows. This suggests a potential reduction in selling pressure from ETFs in the near future [1][2][24] - The cyclical industries, particularly oil and chemicals, are performing relatively well, while the non-ferrous metals sector is significantly affected by external macro events [1][2][24] Consumer Insights - The consumption during the Spring Festival showed a strong start, with daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises increasing by 8.6% year-on-year in the first four days, compared to 4.1% last year [5][25] - There is a forecast for a moderate recovery in consumption at the beginning of the year, with retail sales growth expected to be between 5% and 2.5% for January-February, a significant rebound from around 1% at the end of last year [5][25] - The service consumption is expected to be the main support for overall consumption in 2026, while goods consumption may be weaker than last year [5][25] Industry Recommendations - Dongfang Electric (600875) is expected to see continuous growth in its energy equipment business, with projected net profits of 3.5 billion, 4.52 billion, and 5.44 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing growth rates of 20%, 29%, and 20% respectively [12][13] - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055.HK) is projected to have net profits of 940 million, 1.06 billion, and 1.3 billion HKD for 2025-2027, with an upward adjustment in profit expectations due to improved gross margins from cigarette exports [13] - Liyang Chip (688135) is expanding its high-end testing capacity and is expected to continue growing, with a revenue increase of 23.11% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [14] - Taige Pharmaceutical (300347) is positioned to benefit from the expanding clinical CRO market, with a market share increase from 8.7% to 12.8% from 2019 to 2023, indicating strong growth potential [18] Market Trends - The overseas market has shown signs of stabilizing liquidity, with expectations for improved sentiment. The A-share market is anticipated to remain optimistic if precious metals stabilize and U.S. tech stocks recover [22][27] - The bond market has performed strongly due to a loose liquidity environment, with the central bank injecting nearly 1.8 trillion yuan in liquidity through reverse repos [10][11] - The overall economic data from the U.S. is expected to be stronger than anticipated, which may compress the Fed's rate cut expectations in March-April [27]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend from December 29 to December 31, 2025, with the top three broad indices being the Sci-Tech 100 (0.62%), Sci-Tech Composite (0.15%), and Shanghai Composite (0.13%) [13] - The top three sectors in the Shenwan first-level industry index were Oil & Petrochemicals (3.92%), National Defense & Military (3.05%), and Media (2.13%) [18] ETF Fund Statistics - The top three types of equity ETFs by fund size change were Theme Index ETF (5.685 billion CNY), Strategy Index ETF (1.945 billion CNY), and Style Index ETF (-161 million CNY) [9] - The largest equity ETFs by fund size change were Nonferrous Metals ETF (3.165 billion CNY), A500 ETF (1.935 billion CNY), and A500 ETF Huatai-PB (1.238 billion CNY) [10] January Market Outlook - The macro timing model for January 2026 scored 0, indicating a 76.92% probability of the Wande All A Index rising in the following month, with an average increase of 3.18% [19] - The average daily trading volume of the major index exceeded 20 billion CNY, indicating a gradual recovery in trading sentiment [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a proactive growth-oriented ETF allocation based on the optimistic outlook for January [67] - Key sectors to focus on include robotics, industrial nonferrous metals, and satellite communications, which showed significant net inflows [19] Risk Considerations - The model is based on historical data, which may not hold in the future, posing a risk of failure [69] - Potential macroeconomic underperformance and unexpected macro events are also highlighted as risks [69]