证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-25 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 金融产品周报 20260207：海外市场流动性有企稳迹象，情绪或会好转【勘 误版】 市场行情展望：（2026.2.2-2026.2.6） 观点：市场短期进入结构混沌期， 但大盘指数仍然稳健。 2 月整体走势判断：2026 年 2 月，宏观择时模 型的月度评分是 0 分，历史上该分数万得全 A 指数后续一个月上涨概率 为 78.57%，平均涨幅为 3.37%。叠加日历效应中财报预告的结束，我们 对 2 月 A 股大盘走势持乐观的观点。但鉴于 1 月权益已累计不少盈利盘， 春节前可能有一定的止盈压力。 本周 A 股中，宽基 ETF 仍在持续流出, 但能观察到 1 月 30 日多数宽基 ETF 呈现明显成交额缩小的特征，说明 后续来自宽基 ETF 的抛压可能会逐步减小。同时通信、芯片、化工、石 油石化、港股非银等方向呈现资金流入的特征，可以关注后续资金的持续 性。 结构上，市场短期呈现混沌期特点。上周提示过的周期性行业表现 相对不错，石油、化工等方向仍旧较为稳健。但有 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend from December 29 to December 31, 2025, with the top three broad indices being the Sci-Tech 100 (0.62%), Sci-Tech Composite (0.15%), and Shanghai Composite (0.13%) [13] - The top three sectors in the Shenwan first-level industry index were Oil & Petrochemicals (3.92%), National Defense & Military (3.05%), and Media (2.13%) [18] ETF Fund Statistics - The top three types of equity ETFs by fund size change were Theme Index ETF (5.685 billion CNY), Strategy Index ETF (1.945 billion CNY), and Style Index ETF (-161 million CNY) [9] - The largest equity ETFs by fund size change were Nonferrous Metals ETF (3.165 billion CNY), A500 ETF (1.935 billion CNY), and A500 ETF Huatai-PB (1.238 billion CNY) [10] January Market Outlook - The macro timing model for January 2026 scored 0, indicating a 76.92% probability of the Wande All A Index rising in the following month, with an average increase of 3.18% [19] - The average daily trading volume of the major index exceeded 20 billion CNY, indicating a gradual recovery in trading sentiment [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a proactive growth-oriented ETF allocation based on the optimistic outlook for January [67] - Key sectors to focus on include robotics, industrial nonferrous metals, and satellite communications, which showed significant net inflows [19] Risk Considerations - The model is based on historical data, which may not hold in the future, posing a risk of failure [69] - Potential macroeconomic underperformance and unexpected macro events are also highlighted as risks [69]