Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.09%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains flat at 49.89%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for August is at 50.08%, down 0.03 percentage points from July, and the demand index is at 49.89%, also down 0.03 percentage points from July[7] - The ECI export index is at 50.20%, down 0.03 percentage points from July, indicating a slight decline in export momentum[7] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The ELI index is at -0.70%, up 0.21 percentage points from last week, indicating continued expansion of liquidity in August[11] - The central bank plans to conduct a 600 billion CNY MLF operation on August 25, with a net liquidity injection of 3,000 billion CNY for the month, doubling the net injection from July[13] - Total mid-term and short-term liquidity net injection for August is 6,000 billion CNY, which is twice the net injection scale of July[13] Industrial and Consumer Trends - Industrial production shows marginal recovery, with the operating rate for automotive tires increasing by 1.67 percentage points for full steel tires and 1.06 percentage points for semi-steel tires[14] - Passenger vehicle retail sales for the week ending August 17 averaged 59,068 units per day, a year-on-year increase of 3,867 units, with a 2.0% increase compared to the same period last year[20] - The real estate market shows a 15.1% year-on-year decline in sales area for 30 major cities, although the decline has narrowed compared to July[7] Export Performance - High-frequency data indicates that cargo throughput at monitored ports remains high, suggesting strong resilience in exports for August[7] - South Korea's export growth for the first 20 days of August is at 7.60%, indicating a recovery compared to July[31] Inflation and Price Trends - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.12 CNY/kg, down 0.08 CNY/kg from last week, which may affect the CPI for August[37] - Brent crude oil futures settled at 66.93 USD/barrel, up 0.71 USD/barrel from the previous week, while COMEX gold futures settled at 3,385.06 USD/ounce, down 10.50 USD/ounce[37]

Economic Indicators - As of May 18, 2025, the weekly ECI supply index is 50.24%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is 49.91%, down 0.02 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for the first three weeks of May is 50.25%, down 0.10 percentage points from April, and the demand index is 49.93%, up 0.01 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is 49.95%, down 0.04 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is 49.74%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] Central Bank and Monetary Policy - As of April 30, 2025, the central bank's total balance sheet is 45.52 trillion yuan, a decrease of 108.48 billion yuan from March 2025[13] - The central bank's holdings of government bonds decreased by 1823.5 billion yuan in April, bringing the total to 25.18 trillion yuan[14] - In April, the central bank increased support for the capital market by 3700 billion yuan, indicating a proactive stance to stabilize the market[14] Market Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars from May 1 to May 11 increased by 34% compared to the same period last month[7] - The container shipping price index for exports to the U.S. has shown significant improvement, with rates for the West and East coasts rising by 23.2% and 21.5% respectively as of May 16[7] - The construction sector is expected to accelerate in Q2 2025, with the asphalt working rate showing a notable recovery compared to last year[7] Risks and Outlook - There is a potential for a "rush to export" phenomenon in the short term, which could impact market stability[46] - The effectiveness of policy measures may fall short of market expectations, particularly in the real estate sector[46] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market remains to be observed[46]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.39%, unchanged from last week, while the demand index is at 49.95%, also unchanged[1] - The monthly ECI supply index has increased by 0.11 percentage points from February, while the demand index has increased by 0.06 percentage points[5] - The overall economic growth for Q1 2025 is expected to exceed 5%[5] Investment and Financing - The ELI index is at -1.36%, down 0.20 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decline in liquidity[8] - New loans in January-February totaled 6.14 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 230 billion RMB, but the net increase in loans to the real economy was 5.87 trillion RMB, up 548 billion RMB year-on-year[11] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans is approximately 3.3%, down about 40 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans is about 3.1%, down about 70 basis points[11] Consumption and Exports - Retail sales of passenger cars in March are expected to show significant recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 14% and a month-on-month increase of 52%[19] - The global manufacturing PMI index rose to 50.6 in February, indicating a recovery in external demand, while South Korea's export growth increased from 0.5% in February to 2.9% in March[5] - China's export growth in March is anticipated to recover significantly due to a low base from the previous year[5] Risks and Policy Outlook - There is a risk of a "rush to export" in the short term, and the effectiveness of policy measures may fall short of market expectations[50] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market remains to be observed[50]