Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.09%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains flat at 49.89%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for August is at 50.08%, down 0.03 percentage points from July, and the demand index is at 49.89%, also down 0.03 percentage points from July[7] - The ECI export index is at 50.20%, down 0.03 percentage points from July, indicating a slight decline in export momentum[7] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The ELI index is at -0.70%, up 0.21 percentage points from last week, indicating continued expansion of liquidity in August[11] - The central bank plans to conduct a 600 billion CNY MLF operation on August 25, with a net liquidity injection of 3,000 billion CNY for the month, doubling the net injection from July[13] - Total mid-term and short-term liquidity net injection for August is 6,000 billion CNY, which is twice the net injection scale of July[13] Industrial and Consumer Trends - Industrial production shows marginal recovery, with the operating rate for automotive tires increasing by 1.67 percentage points for full steel tires and 1.06 percentage points for semi-steel tires[14] - Passenger vehicle retail sales for the week ending August 17 averaged 59,068 units per day, a year-on-year increase of 3,867 units, with a 2.0% increase compared to the same period last year[20] - The real estate market shows a 15.1% year-on-year decline in sales area for 30 major cities, although the decline has narrowed compared to July[7] Export Performance - High-frequency data indicates that cargo throughput at monitored ports remains high, suggesting strong resilience in exports for August[7] - South Korea's export growth for the first 20 days of August is at 7.60%, indicating a recovery compared to July[31] Inflation and Price Trends - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.12 CNY/kg, down 0.08 CNY/kg from last week, which may affect the CPI for August[37] - Brent crude oil futures settled at 66.93 USD/barrel, up 0.71 USD/barrel from the previous week, while COMEX gold futures settled at 3,385.06 USD/ounce, down 10.50 USD/ounce[37]

环球市场动态 预 计 常 规 流 动 性 工 具 将 维 持 净 投 放 股 票 周三中国市场继续上涨，大金融股 领涨大市，证券、保险纷纷得到政 策支持；欧股周三收跌，市场谨慎 观望以色列伊朗脆弱的停火协议状 况；美股在记录高位附近遭遇阻力， 但英伟达 (NVDA US) 仍创新高重 回市值第一，金龙中国指数下跌。 外 汇 / 商 品 特朗普淡化近期放松对伊朗制裁的 可能性，美国原油库存连续第五周 下降，周三国际油价反弹近 1%；投 资者权衡中东局势和鲍威尔暗示将 谨慎行动，国际金价微涨。 固 定 收 益 周三美国国债交投清淡，收益率曲 线趋陡，盘中在区间内波动。美联 储公布银行资本金规则修订草案。 5 年期美债拍卖中标利率略高于发 行前交易水平。亚洲债市交投活跃， 日本债市较坚挺；中国投资级债券 交投清淡，利差轻微走阔。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 6 月 26 日 123 个 股 要 闻 ▪ 6 月 24 日，央行发布中期借贷便利招标公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，6 月 25 日，中国人民银行将以 固定数 ...

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities expects that conventional liquidity tools such as MLF and reverse repos will maintain net injection of liquidity [1] Group 1: MLF and Reverse Repo - In June 2025, MLF is projected to maintain an excess rollover with a net injection of 118 billion yuan [1] - Both MLF and reverse repos achieved net liquidity injection, providing long-term liquidity supply [1] - There is a possibility of a decline in MLF bidding rates due to the downward trend in the central rate of time deposits [1] Group 2: Liquidity Outlook - The observation period for total tools indicates a sustained demand for ample liquidity [1] - It is anticipated that MLF and reverse repos will continue to maintain net liquidity injection under the current conditions [1]