Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, gradually transitioning to the off - season, and attention should be paid to macro - guidance [1][4] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - The short - flow construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 6 short - flow steel mills have different shutdown arrangements, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish this year, with weak price support [3] - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Ingots - In October, the fully - taxed full cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry decreased by 1.8% month - on - month and 13.3% year - on - year, mainly due to the decline in the average monthly price of alumina. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.13% year - on - year and 3.52% month - on - month [3] - In October, the aluminum processing comprehensive PMI index dropped by 6.8 percentage points to 48.9%, falling below the boom - bust line. The "Silver October" peak season was lackluster, mainly due to factors such as high aluminum prices, weak construction demand, and weakening export momentum [3] - Last Thursday, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream domestic consumption areas was 619,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1000 tons and a decrease of 31,000 tons from the post - holiday high. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 22,000 tons. In November, the pressure of weak inventory accumulation of domestic aluminum ingots increases, which may have a negative impact on the subsequent aluminum price [3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, mine - end news, and changes in the ratio of inventory to consumption and high - level pressure [4] - Future attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates in September, which was in line with expectations and neutral. In the short term, the positive news has been exhausted, and in the long term, a new interest - rate cut cycle has begun. Attention should be paid to subsequent macro - data guidance [6]. - Before the holiday, with the Fed's September FOMC meeting outcome in line with expectations and neutral, the short - term macro positive news has landed. The long - position funds in the market have left, and the market has returned to range - bound trading. It is expected that the price will fluctuate between 20,600 and 21,000. It is recommended to go long on dips and bet on the peak - season expectations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Alumina - Industry Fundamentals 3.1.1 Supply - In August 2025, the total alumina production capacity in China was 11,462 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.19% and a month - on - month increase of 160 million tons. The in - production capacity was 9,505 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.32% and a month - on - month increase of 40 million tons [11]. - In August 2025, China's alumina output was 792.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% and a month - on - month increase of 36 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 6,052.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [14]. - In August 2025, China's alumina开工率 was 82.93, slightly lower than the same period last year and a month - on - month decline of 0.82%. The smelting profit declined slightly compared with the end of July. The in - production capacity continued to recover, but the开工 rate declined slightly month - on - month [17]. - In August 2025, China's alumina net exports were 8.56 million tons, showing a net - export pattern for 17 consecutive months, with a slight month - on - month decline. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative alumina net exports were 126.16 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase [21]. 3.1.2 Demand - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 3,014 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [24]. 3.1.3 Cost - The prices of domestic and foreign bauxite remained unchanged week - on - week. The CIF average price of Guinea bauxite was reported at $74.5 per ton, and that of Australian bauxite was reported at $70 per ton, both unchanged from last week [27]. - The latest price of caustic soda was 3,750 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan per ton, or 1.35% [30]. 3.1.4 Profit - The current full production cost of alumina was 2,854.3 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.9 yuan per ton. The smelting profit was 196.7 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decline of 72.6 yuan per ton [33]. - The alumina import profit was 184 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 126 yuan per ton [36]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of September 18, the port inventory of alumina was 3 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 0.2 million tons [39]. 3.1.6 Supply - Demand Balance - Since January 2025, the domestic alumina supply has returned to an oversupply pattern. Considering new production capacity, it is expected to remain oversupplied in the long run. In August, the oversupply volume increased slightly month - on - month [42]. 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, China's total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52% and unchanged month - on - month. The in - production capacity was 4,437.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.99% and a month - on - month increase of 15 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 98.61, a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 3,014 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [48]. - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum开工率 was 98.11, a year - on - year increase of 1.46% and a month - on - month increase of 0.33%, at a historically high level with limited upside space [51]. - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum net imports were 19.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.33 million tons and a month - on - month decrease of 1.49 million tons. The import channel has gradually opened in recent years [56]. - On September 18, 2025, the average price of scrap aluminum was 20,930 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decline of 60 yuan per ton. The refined - scrap spread was 950 yuan per ton, a week - on - week convergence of 50 yuan per ton [58]. - In August 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 17.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.3% and a month - on - month increase of 1.21 million tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative scrap aluminum imports were 134.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.26%. The current import volume is at a relatively high level compared to historical data, but may decline after August due to tariff policies [61]. 3.2.2 Demand - In August 2025, China's aluminum product output was 554.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2% and a month - on - month increase of 6.45 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 4,378.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. A seasonal rebound is expected later [64]. - In August 2025, China's aluminum alloy output was 163.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% and a month - on - month increase of 9.9 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 1,232.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3% [67]. 3.2.3 Cost - The spot prices of domestic and foreign alumina continued to decline week - on - week [70]. - The price of pre - baked anodes remained unchanged week - on - week at 5,627.5 yuan per ton [73]. - The prices of dry - process aluminum fluoride and cryolite remained unchanged week - on - week, at 9,580 yuan per ton and 8,390 yuan per ton respectively [76]. 3.2.4 Profit - The current electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was 16,575 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan per ton. The overall profit was 4,385 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan per ton [79]. - The current electrolytic aluminum import loss was 1,644 yuan per ton, a week - on - week significant widening of 265 yuan per ton [82]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of September 18, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in mainstream consumption areas was 64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.6 million tons and an increase of 0.2 million tons during the week. The overall social inventory level was still at a relatively low level compared to historical data [85]. - In August 2025, the monthly electrolytic aluminum spot inventory was 62.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19 million tons and a month - on - month increase of 7.7 million tons, at a relatively low historical level [88]. - As of September 18, the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods was 13.02 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 0.01 million tons and a decline of 0.54 million tons during the week. The current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to historical data [91]. 3.2.6 Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China was between 20,720 and 20,920 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decline of 210 yuan per ton. The spot discount converged, and downstream buyers were still somewhat resistant to high prices [94].