宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅收涨。消息面，中东地缘危机持续，不过升级风险有所缓和，市场 避险情绪有所下降。统计局公布了 5 月社融信贷以及消费数据，政府债是社融的主要贡献项，但实体 部门的融资需求仍偏弱，未来仍需要政策面托底经济需求，政策面利好预期仍存，股指下方支撑力量 较为充足。可重点关注 6 月 18 日陆家嘴论坛的金融政策指引。目前市场情绪仍受制于宏观需 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter sales were $284 million, down 17% year-over-year due to repositioning actions in Performance Chemicals and weak industrial demand [10] - Adjusted gross profit increased by 10% to $129 million, with gross margin improving over 1,000 basis points [10] - Adjusted EBITDA rose by $17 million, with margins improving from 21.9% to 32.1%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year margin improvement [11][12] - Free cash flow improved by $44 million year-over-year to $15 million, reflecting benefits from repositioning actions [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Performance Materials saw higher sales due to favorable regional and product mix, with EBITDA margins remaining near 54% [13][15] - Advanced Polymer Technologies (APT) experienced lower overall sales, but EBITDA increased by $3 million, with margins rising to 29.6% [19] - Performance Chemicals sales decreased by 35% primarily due to repositioning actions, but segment EBITDA showed year-over-year improvement of $10 million [21][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American auto production is expected to decline by approximately 10% year-over-year, impacting guidance for the Performance Materials segment [8][15] - Volume growth was observed in China due to government incentives driving higher vehicle sales, while North American volumes were down year-over-year [13][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on disciplined execution of its strategy to optimize the portfolio and drive business performance, aiming to create significant value for shareholders [8][24] - The strategic review of Industrial Specialties and the North Charleston refinery is progressing well, with expectations to communicate a path forward before the end of the year [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management is actively monitoring developments related to tariffs and macro demand conditions, believing the direct impact on the business will be minimal [7][24] - Despite headwinds, the company is confident in its ability to deliver strong profitability in 2025 and beyond [8][24] Other Important Information - The company has introduced a new President for APT, who brings over 25 years of experience in transforming business profitability [20] - The average age of automobiles in the U.S. is at an all-time high, suggesting a future need for replacements [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Pricing in Performance Materials business - Management indicated that they have a strong position and are seeing encouraging performance, with pricing being a lever they can pull if needed [29][30][32] Question: Update on strategic review of Industrial Specialties - The process is progressing well with a broad degree of interest, and management is being deliberate in their approach [34][36] Question: Strategic and operational priorities in a volatile environment - The focus remains on disciplined execution, optimizing business performance, and reducing leverage [40][41] Question: Cash flow forecast amidst potential auto production decline - Management is confident in free cash flow generation even in a declining sales environment due to effective working capital management [43][44] Question: Impact of EV slowdown on forecasts - While EVs are slowing down, management remains optimistic about the adoption of new technologies and their investment in Nexeon [47][48][50] Question: Filtration market capacity for potential volume shifts - The filtration market is sizable and can absorb underutilized capacity, although it is a lower margin market compared to auto [53][54] Question: Long-term leverage goals - The long-term target for leverage remains between 2 to 2.5 times [58]