Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - Recently, supported by the bullish market sentiment and a slight relief in supply - demand pressure, both futures and spot prices have strengthened in resonance. Short - term technical corrections on the market should be noted [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - On July 15, coal - coke futures prices fluctuated. On the spot side, steel mills in some regions have accepted the first round of coke price hikes [3] - In June, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size in China was 420 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%, with the growth rate 1.2 percentage points slower than that in May. The daily output was 14.04 million tons. From January to June, the output was 2.4 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In June, the coke output was 41.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% and a year - on - year increase of 0.14%. From January to June, the cumulative coke output was 248.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.33% [3] Fundamental Analysis - Last week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi continued the resumption of production, but the overall resumption process was relatively slow. The regional, phased and structural supply - demand mismatch of coking coal was not effectively alleviated. With the rising macro - expectations and the release of speculative demand, coking coal prices continued to rise, and the mine pit - mouth inventory continued to decline significantly [4] - From July 11th to 15th, due to the Naadam Festival in Mongolia, the border ports were temporarily closed and are expected to gradually resume on the 16th [4] - On the demand side, recently, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated the replenishment of raw materials, and the available days of coking coal inventory in the plants have rebounded from a low level. However, the hot metal output last week dropped below 2.4 million tons. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' production reduction [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **沪铜**: The main contract price of Shanghai copper futures oscillated above 80,500 today, with its open interest continuously rising. Macroscopically, the situation in the Middle East has eased, overseas risk appetite has rebounded, and after the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, domestic macro - expectations have increased. Additionally, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China exceeded expectations, which is beneficial for copper prices. Industrially, downstream enterprises' purchasing sentiment is weak, and the sentiment of holders to hold up prices has weakened. Driven by macro factors, the futures price is expected to maintain a strong performance, and attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [5]. - **沪铝**: The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum futures oscillated narrowly above 20,600 today, and the spread between July and August widened. Macroscopically, the global macro - atmosphere has warmed up, and after the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, the market expects the elimination of backward production capacity. Also, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China exceeded expectations, which is beneficial for aluminum prices. Industrially, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and with the fear of high prices, they mainly make rigid purchases. Middlemen bargain for goods at a discount, and the overall trading is average. Technically, the main aluminum futures price is approaching the mid - June high, and attention should be paid to technical pressure [6]. - **沪镍**: Shanghai nickel futures oscillated upwards today, and the main contract price stood above 121,000. The global macro - situation has improved, and nickel prices have rebounded from the bottom. After the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, the domestic macro - situation has also improved. Fundamentally, the short - term strength of the ore end supports nickel prices, while the medium - to - long - term oversupply of nickel elements limits the upside space of nickel prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [7]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 2, Shengda Resources stated on the interactive platform that the Caiyuanzi Copper - Gold Mine of Honglin Mining is expected to start trial production from July to September 2025. On July 1, the first deep - processing transfer business of non - ferrous metal processing trade of Jinchuan Group Copper & Precious Metals Co., Ltd. was successfully implemented [9]. - **Aluminum**: On July 2, SMM reported that the Guinean government announced the creation of the bauxite national index "GBX" to ensure the transparency of bauxite pricing [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 2, the mainstream reference contract in the Shanghai market for refined nickel was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,500 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,450 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was + 600 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,550 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was + 2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,700 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,050 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][21]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [38][44][48].