以下段落摘录自 "Sixty Five Years on Wall Street" 一文，该文章源于《Grant's Interest Rate Observer》 1999年度投资会议上施洛斯的演讲和问答。 …you are going against human nature when you buy companies which are having a problem and one of the things we do in our field is we buy stocks on the way down. So that if we buy a stock at $30 and it goes to $25, we'll buy more. 当你买入那些有问题的公司时，你其实违背了人性。在我们这个领域，我们常常会在股价下跌时买入股 票。所以，如果我们以30美元的价格买入一只股票，而它跌到了25美元，我们还会买入更多。 …you have to have a strong stomach and be willing to take an unrealized loss. Don't sel ...

Group 1 - The debate surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2024 centers on whether these measures will extend economic expansion or signal an impending recession [1][4] - Historical analysis shows that in the past 10 rate-cutting cycles, only 2 successfully avoided recession, indicating that the current cycle could potentially be the third [1][6] - Since 1965, 12 rate-hiking cycles have led to 8 recessions, with 10 of these cycles preceded by an inverted yield curve, suggesting a strong correlation between these indicators [6][12] Group 2 - The current inverted yield curve has persisted for 35 months, with historical data indicating that 8 out of 9 inversions occurred before economic recessions [2][12] - The performance of various stock styles post-Fed rate cuts has shown significant variability, highlighting the unique macroeconomic contexts of each cycle [2][5] - The Federal Reserve typically begins cutting rates after stock market peaks, indicating a lag in policy response to economic conditions [4][17] Group 3 - In the aftermath of rate hikes, different investment styles exhibit varied performance, often reflecting the cyclical nature of monetary policy and market behavior [9][14] - High-beta stocks tend to show the most extreme performance, either positively or negatively, while quality and value stocks generally outperform average levels [9][14] - The historical context suggests that the current economic environment, characterized by high fiscal deficits, may mirror conditions from the mid-1960s, potentially allowing for continued economic growth despite risks [13][17] Group 4 - Inflation remains a critical factor, as rising inflation could compel the Federal Reserve to tighten policies again, which historically leads to challenging market conditions [18] - Investors are advised to prepare for market volatility and be ready to adjust strategies in response to potential policy changes [18]

Group 1 - The current market phase is likely the early stage of a bull market's main wave, supported by three main reasons: (1) Market turnover rate typically reaches the initial high point of the bull market during the main wave, but the current turnover rate remains significantly lower than the peak observed on October 8, 2024 [2][6][7] - (2) There are significant style changes between the early and late stages of a bull market. Since April 2025, small-cap stocks have been leading, indicating that if this is indeed the early stage of the main wave, a shift to large-cap stocks may occur in the later stage [2][6][16] - (3) During the main wave of a bull market, equity financing usually increases rapidly to historical highs, but current levels remain low. Historical bull markets from 2005-2007 and 2013-2015 saw significant increases in equity financing during their main waves, while current financing levels are still recovering slowly [2][23][29] Group 2 - The report indicates that the second half of 2025 may experience a sustained main wave of the bull market, with characteristics similar to previous bull markets in 2013-2014 and 2019. The market is expected to respond positively to policy changes and structural opportunities, with a gradual increase in resident capital inflows [25][26] - Recent market performance shows that major A-share indices have generally risen, with notable gains in sectors such as communication and electronics, while banks and steel have underperformed [31][32] - The report suggests a shift in investment strategy towards more flexible allocations, particularly increasing exposure to non-bank financials and sectors benefiting from AI applications, as well as cyclical stocks that may show resilience in the coming months [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - Investment requires a personal style that aligns with one's cognitive framework, operational discipline, and risk tolerance, enabling a coherent internal logic and belief system in the market [3][4]. Investment Style - Investment style is defined as the sum of cognitive frameworks, operational discipline, and risk thresholds exhibited during portfolio construction and security selection [4]. - Successful value investors often have diverse stock holdings, indicating that value investing is not a rigid doctrine but revolves around the "value and price difference" [5]. Self-Recognition - A mature investor must have a clear understanding of themselves, including knowledge reserves, risk tolerance, and personality traits, to define their capability circle [8]. - Many investors lose money due to a lack of self-awareness, leading to inconsistent strategies and decisions [8]. Shortcomings and Strengths - Recognizing one's shortcomings is crucial, as investment success is often determined by these weaknesses [9]. - Acknowledging and leveraging strengths can provide stability to one's investment style [10]. Consistency in Strategy - Once an investment style is established, it should not be frequently changed; consistency is key [12]. - Investors should select a coherent investment philosophy that aligns with market realities and their personality [13]. Adaptability and Long-Term Focus - The key to success lies in finding a compatible investment approach rather than pursuing theoretical "optimal solutions" [14]. - Investors should avoid trying to chase multiple conflicting investment strategies simultaneously, as this leads to confusion and poor outcomes [15]. Practical Investment Guidelines - Avoiding leverage is recommended, as it can amplify losses during market downturns [17]. - Diversification across several industries and companies is essential to mitigate risks [17]. - Investment decisions should be based on the level of certainty regarding a company's prospects [17]. Valuation and Market Behavior - Investors should focus on a company's intrinsic value rather than being swayed by market emotions [18]. - Long-term holding is emphasized as a result of understanding a company's value, rather than a goal in itself [18]. - A conservative approach to valuation is advised, allowing for a safety margin to cushion against unforeseen market events [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, highlighting the strong growth of small and medium-sized stocks, particularly in the growth style, while value stocks have shown weakness. It emphasizes the potential investment opportunities arising from the different performance of various styles and sectors. Group 1: Market Performance - The market continues to rise, closing at a rating of 4.6 stars [1][47] - All market caps, including large, medium, and small stocks, have experienced an increase [2][3] - Growth style stocks, especially those in the ChiNext, have shown significant gains [4][5] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The divergence in performance among different styles creates good investment opportunities [7] - Despite the index not rising much for certain dividend, value, and consumer stocks, their earnings continue to grow [8] - Some of these stocks are now valued lower than at the beginning of the year [9] Group 3: ChiNext Index Analysis - The ChiNext index was undervalued for a long time in early 2024 [13] - It reached its lowest valuation during the bear market in May last year [14] - The index surged over 60% in two weeks from 1520 points to 2576 points [15] - Currently, the ChiNext index is at 2384 points, which is still below its peak from last October [19] Group 4: Historical Valuation Context - The ChiNext index has previously experienced a bubble, with a peak P/E ratio exceeding 130 during 2014-2015 [22][23] - The current average market cap of the ChiNext has increased, leading to a lower valuation center compared to past bubbles [31][33] - Historical high valuations from 2015-2016 are unlikely to be repeated due to stricter regulations on leverage and changes in market composition [25][28][38] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The article introduces a new investment product, the "Monthly Salary Treasure" combination, with a lowered minimum investment threshold of 200 yuan and a regular investment feature [43][45] - This product aims to meet the cash flow needs of investors, suitable for long-term holding during favorable market conditions [46] Group 6: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Investors often redeem during market rebounds, missing out on further gains, which is likened to a missed opportunity at dawn [51]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive overview of the updated active fund manager pool information, focusing on various metrics such as investment style, stock allocation, industry preference, turnover rate, valuation of major holdings, concentration of holdings, and fund size [3][32]. Group 1: Fund Manager Information - The article lists various fund managers along with their respective funds, categorized by investment style such as value, growth, and balanced [2][4]. - It highlights the experience of fund managers, indicating that many have been in the industry for several years, which is crucial for navigating different market cycles [39][41]. Group 2: Fund Metrics - The article discusses key metrics to consider when evaluating funds, including stock allocation, which typically ranges from 85% to 90% for active funds [43][44]. - It emphasizes the importance of industry preference, noting that fund managers often focus on specific sectors where they have expertise [48][50]. - The concentration of holdings is also addressed, with a higher concentration indicating greater potential volatility [53]. Group 3: Valuation and Performance Indicators - The article mentions the valuation of major holdings, suggesting that growth-style funds tend to have higher valuations compared to value-style funds [58]. - It discusses turnover rates, indicating that a turnover rate below 200% is considered low for active funds, which can be influenced by changes in fund size [61][62]. - Fund size is highlighted as a critical factor, with larger funds potentially facing challenges in achieving excess returns due to management difficulties [63][68]. Group 4: Fund Reports and Insights - The article outlines the types of periodic reports available for funds, with annual reports containing the most comprehensive information [32]. - It suggests focusing on factors that impact fund performance, such as investment style, industry preference, and the fund manager's insights on market conditions [32][66].

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the significant losses incurred by Invesco Great Wall Fund over the past three years, totaling over 400 billion yuan, while the fund management fees collected exceeded 9 billion yuan, raising concerns among investors about the fund's performance and management practices [2][3][25]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Invesco Great Wall Fund reported operating income of 337.33 million yuan and a net profit of 95.11 million yuan [2]. - Over the past three years, the fund has achieved a net profit of over 3 billion yuan, despite the substantial losses in its non-money market funds [2]. - The fund's management fees collected from 2021 to 2024 amounted to 14.95 billion yuan, while the total losses for investors reached 37.44 billion yuan [25]. Fund Performance Analysis - The main contributors to the losses were the Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth and Invesco Great Wall Dingyi funds, with the former losing 32.82% and the latter 32.91% over the past three years [3][6]. - The Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth Mixed A fund has seen a cumulative loss of 25.50% since its inception [5]. - The Invesco Great Wall Dingyi Mixed A fund has also experienced a cumulative loss of 23.52% since its inception [7]. Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has turned negative, with many expressing frustration over the fund's performance and the management's ability to generate returns [8][9]. - Comments from investors indicate a strong desire for changes in fund management due to ongoing losses and poor performance [9]. Management and Strategy - The fund manager, Liu Yanchun, has been a central figure in the fund's performance issues, with a history of significant losses under his management [10][12]. - Liu's investment strategy has been characterized by heavy concentration in consumer stocks, which have faced substantial declines since 2021, leading to investor dissatisfaction [14]. - Despite the losses, Liu has continued to earn substantial management fees, which has further fueled investor discontent [14]. Leadership Changes - The fund has seen changes in its management team, including the departure of notable fund manager Bao Wuke, which raises questions about future performance and investor confidence [17][21]. - The company's chairman, Li Jin, also stepped down, with the general manager, Kang Le, taking over temporarily [22][24].

以下文章来源于二鸟说 ，作者二鸟说 二鸟说 . A股中市场风格的划分方法很多，如市值风格（大盘/中盘/小盘）、投资风格（成长/价值）、估值风格（高估值/低估值）、价格风格（高价股/低 价股）等，其中应用最广泛的是按照市值和投资风格属性划分，下面重点为大家分析一下。 1、大盘/中盘/小盘市值风格 专注于基金投资，秉承长期投资，价值投资，稳健投资的原则，合理进行大类资产配置，科学的择基，适当择时，实现资产长期稳健增值。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 二鸟说 来源：雪球 A股市场每隔一段时间，就会上演价值与成长风格的切换，比如在2025年1季度内，科技成长风格在1月和2月领涨市场，3月开始调整；价值风格前 期涨幅较小，在3月份表现相对抗跌。 在这个快速切换的过程中，有些投资者刚刚参与到科技股行情中，结果不小心高位站岗，有些投资者则因为将资金从科技板块撤出或配置到其他低 位潜力板块之后，在调整中避免了较大的损失。这说明，市场风格的切换会导致某种风格的资产在一段时间内表现优异，而在另一段时间内表现较 差，对投资收益有显著影响。 那么市场风格切换背后的原因是 ...

Core Insights - The article features a dialogue between William Green and Terry Smith, a renowned British investor known for managing Fundsmith, the largest equity fund in the UK with over £27 billion in assets [1] - Since its inception in 2010, Fundsmith has achieved an average annual return of 14.8%, significantly outperforming the MSCI World Index by over 200 percentage points [1] Group 1: Background and Early Life - Terry Smith grew up in a challenging environment in East London during the 1950s and 60s, characterized by poverty and the remnants of World War II [2][3] - His family lived in a very poor area, with inadequate housing and facilities, which instilled in him a strong desire to improve his circumstances [11][15] - Smith's father was a skilled driver who suffered from asbestos-related illness, while his mother held various low-paying jobs, contributing to their family's financial struggles [12][14][15] Group 2: Influences and Motivations - A pivotal moment in Smith's life was watching the film "The Thomas Crown Affair," which exposed him to a different lifestyle and fueled his ambition for wealth and success [19][20] - His father's interest in cars and driving skills influenced Smith's own passion for automobiles, leading him to collect over 200 cars [23][24] - Smith's experiences in a rough school environment led him to take up boxing, which became a lifelong interest and a source of discipline [31][32] Group 3: Investment Philosophy - Smith emphasizes the importance of understanding a company's economic reality and its ability to maintain high returns, reflecting a deep analytical approach to investing [2][19] - He cites Charlie Munger's influence on his investment philosophy, particularly the idea that the performance of a company's stock will align with its capital return over the long term [2][19] - Smith's investment strategy focuses on high-quality, resilient companies, which has been a key factor in his fund's success [1][2]