Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates rising gold and copper prices, while oil prices remain volatile [1] - Domestic demand shows mixed performance with service consumption slowing down, but real estate and passenger car sales are recovering [1][4] - External demand is affected by ongoing US tariff wars, although South Korea's export growth has improved recently [2][14] Domestic Demand - Post-holiday service demand has decreased, with adverse weather conditions impacting visitor numbers at attractions like Shanghai Disneyland and hotel occupancy rates [1][11] - New home sales in 42 cities have shown a narrowing decline in growth rates, primarily driven by first and second-tier cities, while second-hand home sales in 19 cities have slightly decreased [1][9] - Retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars have significantly increased due to offline auto shows and new car launches [1][10] External Demand - The US tariff war continues, with plans to impose additional tariffs on Europe and recent tariffs on Canadian agricultural products [1][14] - South Korea's export growth has rebounded in the first ten days of the month, supported by improvements in manufacturing PMI across multiple countries, suggesting a potential shift from decline to growth in exports [2][16] Production - Manufacturing activity is gradually recovering, with a balanced labor market emerging [3][23] - Steel production has increased, and the operating rates for asphalt and cement have risen, while glass demand remains weak, leading to rising inventories and falling prices [4][20] Commodity Prices - Gold prices have reached new highs after consolidation, copper prices are rising, and oil prices are fluctuating; domestic steel and coal prices continue to decline, while cement prices are on the rise [5][26] - Market expectations for a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut have been fueled by US stock performance and CPI data, alongside uncertainties from tariff policies [5][28] Future Focus - Attention will be on upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve meetings [6]

核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 黄金升、铜涨、原油震荡。 内需： 节后服务消费持续降温；商品消费分化，地产新房升，二手落；乘用车走弱。 ①地产销量增速分化。剔除春节效应，42城新房销量增速回升，一二线是主要动力；19城二手房销量增 速所有线级均有回落。 ②节后服务消费热度下降，乐园客流和酒店营收呈现磨底态势，随着天气升温，踏春潮有望带动休闲娱 乐需求回升。 外需： 2月主要经济体制造业PMI多数上升，义乌小商品出口价格抬升，考虑到抢出口和去年基数走低 等因素助力，出口或将回升。本周，特朗普对我国额外再加征10%关税。 生产： 挖机销量大幅上行，行业整体开工率不及去年。 ①用工市场供需逐渐平衡。本周制造业用工量价双双下行，全市场新增招聘帖数有所下降。 ②多数行业开工率仍不及去年。本周样本钢厂产量下行，PTA产业链负荷率下降，不过，水泥价格有所 回升，"抢出口"效应下，三大货运量增速多数上行。 ③二手挖掘机海外出口量增长，带来国内新机替代率大幅提升，1-2月挖掘机销量增速显著回升。 物价： 本周国际金、铜价格回升，原油下降。国内钢铁、煤炭价格回落，水泥续升。 ①本周美联储降息预期抬升，美元走弱共同利好大宗商品 ...