证券行业信用风险展望（2025 年 12 月） 金融评级二部 丨 证券行业组 我国证券行业收入结构图（%） 样本证券公司营业收入和净利润情况 5159.82 5260.62 5676.51 1414.96 1478.85 1727.16 -40.00% -30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2022年 2023年 2024年 样本公司营业收入（左轴） 样本公司净利润（左轴） 样本公司营业收入增速（右轴） 样本公司净利润增速（右轴） 营业收入行业增速（右轴） 净利润行业增速（右轴） 亿元 样本证券公司杠杆水平情况 样本证券公司资本充足情况 证券行业信用风险展望丨 2026 摘要 www.lhratings.com 信用风险展望 0 2025 年以来，证监会等监管机构延续了高频率密集发布、修 订制度规则的步调，证券发行承销、上市公司并购重组等事 项的各类细项修订占比较高，各类政策规则均在持续完善， 资本市场改革进一步深化，中国资本市场监管进入"巩固消 化期"。 证券公司资产规模逐年增长； ...

今 日 聚 焦 【银行】日本90年代银行危机及风险处置——海外银行镜鉴日本系列之二 日本90年代经济泡沫破裂后，实体部门资产负债表受损，银企、银银间关系绑定，风险演化呈现时滞性、非线 性、扩散性特征，90年代末出现机构"破产潮"。危机后经历两阶段监管改革，通过多轮注资与并购重组推动风 险出清，强化银行资本与流动性管理。后危机时代，较长时期低利率环境下，日本银行业经营模式与资负行为 亦出现相应转变，呈现出规模扩张放缓，资产配置防御属性突出等特征。 （王一峰/赵晨阳）2025-12-30 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 （王招华/戴默/马俊/方驭涛/王秋琪/张寅帅）2025-12-31 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【有色】钨：罕见供给收缩金属 上游矿企持续受益——钨 ...

大金融政策及配置展望 20251222 摘要 房地产市场自 2025 年下半年以来面临量价下行压力，核心城市房价加 速下跌，当二手房价格环比跌幅超 1%及土地市场降温时，预示政策可 能加码。 房地产企业（包括混合所有制和国央企）债务展期现象增多，居民资产 负债表面临压力测试，企业和居民端风险正由点状扩散至面状，政策加 码的必要性提高。 预计 2026 年房地产市场仍处于调整阶段，销量或有 10%左右下降，其 他指标大概率双位数下降，但降幅可能收窄，市场已进入调整周期后半 段，二季度或有边际改善。 行业调整期，具备清库存优势、位于核心地段的优质房企，以及拥有稳 定现金流的经济龙头、商业地产和央国企物管龙头值得关注。 保险板块盈利模式依赖投资收益率和负债成本之差乘以杠杆规模。新单 快速流入降低负债成本，规模扩大趋势确定，监管利好头部保险公司， 预计 2026 年行业集中度提升。 Q&A 如何理解房地产行业高质量发展的政策导向和内涵？ 目前房地产企业和居民端面临哪些风险？ 企业端和居民端的风险正在逐步扩散。部分混合所有制企业和国央企出现债务 展期情况，同时地方贷款卖房及银行职工房等问题也引发关注。这表明企业端 风险 ...

被视为美联储下一任主席最热门人选的哈塞特表示："我认为总统非常希望进行充分的分析，以确保我 们做出正确的选择。" 被视为美联储下一任主席最热门人选的哈塞特表示："我认为总统非常希望进行充分的分析，以确保我 们做出正确的选择。" "最终，司法部将会研究赫芬达尔指数、行业集中度，以及此次大型并购导致的竞争减少程度等指 标，"他补充道。 责任编辑：李桐 "最终，司法部将会研究赫芬达尔指数、行业集中度，以及此次大型并购导致的竞争减少程度等指 标，"他补充道。 责任编辑：李桐 ...

春哥祝各位平安吉祥，万事如意。 每天中午张春林的午间评论是"春哥午间道"，新来的请大家同步关注一下，每天11：30更新。今天市场继续震荡，沪 指小跌，双创小幅回升，但中位数下跌0.9%左右，超过3800只个股下跌，行情最近三天连续阴跌，很多人有一种钝刀 子割肉的感觉。 但经历过A股长熊的人，对当前的盘面应该有较好的"耐药性"和免疫力，现在的震荡算不上什么，属于正常"充电"阶 段。 短线市场缩量了，所以呈出现涨不上去，跌又跌得不利落的状态，欲罢还休，反复拉锯。 风向标还得看科创50指数，今天上涨1.36%，对昨天小阴线进行了反包，近期科创明显强于主板，主要原因是机器人、 芯片等方向相对表现较好，而今天主板的白酒、消费指数大跌，拖累了主板指数，此消彼长，导致两边分化明显。 明天摩尔线程上市，都说是"大肉签"，其受益概念股和而泰放量涨停，也带动了GPU题材活跃，明天GPU题材到底是 见光死还是继续跃？按当前市场的这个尿性，还是要提防冲高回落。 现在资金太"鸡贼"，预期了你的预期的预期，主打提前量，只能潜伏不能追涨。主板今天白酒和消费板块是重灾区， 白酒指数下跌1.46%，餐饮下跌4.4%，53度飞天茅台散瓶价进一步 ...

Core Viewpoint - The securities industry is expected to require strong market momentum to achieve further growth in ROE by 2026, with projected revenues and net profits of 660 billion and 290.4 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 16.1% and 18.8% [1] Group 1: 2025 Review - The A-share market has shown strong performance, but the securities sector's stock prices have lagged, with the Securities II index rising only 6.1%, underperforming the market by 11.8 percentage points [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, 42 listed securities firms reported total revenues and net profits of 419.56 billion and 169.05 billion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 42.6% and 62.4% respectively, indicating a reversal in industry profitability [2] Group 2: Industry Restructuring - The traditional development model is being disrupted, leading to a potential increase in industry concentration, driven by regulatory guidance towards capital-intensive growth and restrictions on excessive equity financing [3] - New regulations require long-term underperforming companies to disclose valuation improvement plans, further limiting low-valuation firms from equity financing, which has been a common expansion method [3] - The revised classification rating rules for 2025 will enhance the scoring for net asset returns, encouraging firms to focus on efficiency and concentrated growth [3] - Performance management reforms are restricting smaller firms from attracting top talent from leading firms, intensifying the Matthew effect in the industry [3] Group 3: Operational Aspects - Leading securities firms are developing capabilities independent of market fluctuations, while mid-sized firms need to rebuild their proprietary investment capabilities [4] - Internationalization, product diversification, and platformization are reshaping the operational capabilities of leading firms, with international business contributing approximately 20% to CITIC Securities' profits as of mid-2025 [4] - Derivative products are enhancing the ability of leading firms to serve clients, with significant growth in investment returns from stock derivatives expected [4] - The shift from individual operations to a more integrated service model is expected to strengthen profitability for leading firms, while mid-sized firms must focus on expanding their brokerage income and stabilizing investment strategies to ensure consistent returns [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in gold tax policy has led to significant price discrepancies in the gold jewelry market, causing confusion and a cautious approach among merchants and consumers [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the tax policy change on November 1, the gold price gap between purchase and recovery has widened from over 20 yuan to more than 100 yuan per gram within a few days [1][2]. - On November 6, the market price for gold jewelry fluctuated, with a reported price of approximately 989 yuan per gram, which later increased to 993 yuan per gram, including about 70 yuan per gram in tax [2][4]. - The main recovery price remained around 898 yuan per gram, indicating a significant increase in the buy-sell price difference compared to just 27 yuan per gram six months prior [2]. Group 2: Impact on Consumer Behavior - The new tax policy has led to a decrease in actual transactions, with many consumers opting to wait and observe the market rather than making purchases, except for those with urgent needs [4][6]. - The demand for "one-price" gold products, which have smaller price adjustments and appeal to younger consumers, has increased, becoming a popular choice in the gift market [4][8]. Group 3: Tax Policy Implications - The tax policy changes have resulted in increased costs for non-member jewelry brands, as their input tax deduction rates have decreased from 13% to 6%, leading to higher VAT payments and potential profit pressure [6][8]. - The gold price increase is primarily attributed to the heightened tax burden on upstream suppliers, which has raised raw material costs for jewelers [7][8]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - Analysts predict that non-member jewelry companies will face increased profit pressures in the short term, while member companies may be less affected [8]. - The long-term outlook suggests that the industry will see increased concentration, with brands that possess pricing power demonstrating greater resilience in performance [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights a significant recovery in performance for Q3 2025, with strong port business results [4] - The company is facing pressure on shipping prices due to supply-demand imbalances, but its operational advantages have mitigated the impact [6] - The report maintains a positive outlook based on the company's solid market position and expected profit recovery in the coming years [6] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 229.72 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.77% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 32.34 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 34.13% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted at 2.09 yuan for 2025, down from 3.17 yuan in 2024 [5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 12.89% in 2025 [5] Market Performance - The company reported a Q3 2025 revenue of 58.50 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 20.42%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 63.18% [6] - The average shipping price for the company was 7,501.09 yuan/TEU, down 26.73% year-on-year [6] - The total throughput for the company's port business in Q3 2025 was 38.98 million TEU, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.20% [6] Profitability Forecast - The company’s net profit for 2025-2027 is projected to be 32.34 billion, 24.74 billion, and 21.65 billion yuan respectively [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the same period are expected to be 7.19, 9.40, and 10.74 [6]

Group 1: Company Performance - New Hope achieved operating revenue of 80.504 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.27% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 760 million yuan, a significant increase of 395.89% year-on-year [1] - The substantial rise in net profit is attributed to higher sales prices of live pigs, continuous improvement in breeding costs, reduced losses in the pig industry, and increased profits from the feed business [1] Group 2: Industry Overview - The overall operating conditions of pig farming enterprises remained stable in the first three quarters of the year, with most companies in the A-share pig farming sector reporting net profit [1] - However, over half of the companies in the industry experienced a year-on-year decline in net profit due to price fluctuations [1] Group 3: Future Trends - Short-term pig prices are expected to remain slightly volatile, with the national average price fluctuating between 11.7 yuan/kg and 12.5 yuan/kg [2] - Demand for heavier pigs is anticipated to increase due to seasonal factors and procurement needs from slaughter enterprises [2] - Large-scale pig farming enterprises are expected to better cope with market fluctuations and maintain profitability due to their scale, technological, and management advantages [2] Group 4: Cost Control Measures - New Hope's future cost reduction efforts will focus on three main areas: enhancing disease prevention in autumn and winter, promoting genetic improvement, and optimizing production management [2] - The company aims to transition from simply raising good pigs to raising high-quality pigs, with future improvements relying on collaboration with leading enterprises and research institutions [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative growth trend in the white liquor industry, with a recommendation for cautious investment due to the ongoing challenges and market adjustments [2][4][6]. Core Insights - The white liquor industry experienced its first decline in overall operating performance since 2015, with a decrease in total revenue and profit among 20 A-share listed companies [4][5]. - The leading companies, such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, showed revenue growth, while the majority of other companies faced significant sales pressure, highlighting a trend of industry differentiation [2][9]. - The industry is currently facing an imbalance in supply and demand for mid-to-high-end products, with social inventory needing further clearance [2][13]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In the first half of 2025, the total revenue of 20 A-share listed companies in the white liquor sector reached 241.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 0.86% [5][12]. - Excluding Guizhou Moutai, the remaining 19 companies saw a more pronounced decline, with total revenue dropping by 6.07% [5][10]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the white liquor industry has entered a phase of "total decline, head and shoulder concentration" since 2017, with a gradual decrease in production and sales volume among large enterprises [9][15]. - The introduction of stricter policies, such as the revised regulations on waste reduction, has significantly impacted consumer behavior and sales in the second quarter of 2025 [6][15]. Future Outlook - Short-term challenges remain, with expectations of continued downward pressure on operating performance into the second half of 2025 and potentially into 2026 [12][14]. - Long-term trends suggest a potential contraction in the industry, but opportunities for product structure optimization and increased industry concentration may support the resilience of existing listed companies [15][16].