2026年2月，华盛顿最高法法槌一下，特朗普政府昔日靠得住的关税"大锤"一下子失了灵。 眼看国内外压力齐飞，传统的"对华强硬"牌打不出去，特朗普和他的团队却选择了连着三天向中国喊 话，还紧接着在国情咨文上把"虚实结合"玩得炉火纯青。 到底这一串操作背后，是慌不择路的防守，还是蓄谋已久的套路？特朗普一番热闹表演，真能瞒天过海 吗？ 最高法院裁决后的"慌乱"："喊话中国"到底在怕啥？ 2月20日，美国最高法院以6比3的裁决，让特朗普政府曾自诩能随时挥舞的《国际紧急经济权力法》， 眼下变成了"装饰品"。 特朗普团队当天就急急忙忙派出了高级贸易代表格里尔，对中国放出信号。没隔太久，2月22日、2月24 日，格里尔又端出相似的"温馨提醒"，连轴转地向中国喊话，希望"中国不要趁虚而入"，还要求中国履 行过去签过的所有贸易协议。 三天三板斧，核心诉求摆在那里，别利用眼下美国"关税大棒"暂时失效的窗口做动作，大家都要老老实 实，别趁火打劫，话说得客气，背后藏着点难言的忐忑。 特朗普政府突然如此"肉麻"的连续劝说，表面上是"维护规则"，实则是怕极了。关税工具没了，施压手 里剩的砝码就少了，怕中国下一步会出什么"奇招"反制。 更 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lithuania's new Prime Minister acknowledges a significant error in its China policy, particularly regarding the establishment of a "Taiwan Representative Office," which has led to severe diplomatic and economic repercussions [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact - Lithuania's exports to China have plummeted by over 50%, severely affecting key industries such as timber and dairy [1]. - The phenomenon of "de-Lithuanization" in the global high-tech supply chain has emerged, indicating a shift away from Lithuanian suppliers [1]. - The throughput of the Klaipeda deep-water port has significantly decreased due to the rerouting of China-Europe freight trains [1]. Group 2: Political Reactions - Both the Prime Minister and President of Lithuania express a desire to visit China soon, indicating a shift towards repairing bilateral relations [1]. - The Prime Minister reflects on the lack of appreciation from the international community for Lithuania's previous stance, suggesting a need for more sincere actions to rectify past mistakes [2]. - In contrast, leaders from other Western nations, such as the UK, Canada, Finland, and Ireland, are actively visiting China to strengthen cooperation [1].

Core Viewpoint - The visit of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to China is seen as a significant step towards improving UK-China relations and enhancing economic cooperation, despite criticism from opposition parties regarding the outcomes of the trip [1][10]. Group 1: Economic Cooperation - Starmer's visit included discussions on various topics such as whisky tariffs and visa-free travel to China, indicating a focus on trade and economic collaboration [7][10]. - The UK business delegation accompanying Starmer expressed optimism about the opportunities in China, highlighting the need for a proactive approach to seize these opportunities [10][11]. - The bilateral trade between the UK and China is projected to reach $103.7 billion by 2025, with service trade expected to exceed $30 billion [11]. Group 2: Political Reactions - Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch criticized Starmer's approach to China, labeling it as weak and short-sighted, while also making unfounded accusations regarding espionage [1][5]. - Starmer countered the criticism by emphasizing the importance of engagement with China and the need for a mature relationship that acknowledges both cooperation and differences [8][9]. - There are mixed reactions within the UK political landscape, with some supporting Starmer's engagement strategy while others express concerns about the UK's position in these discussions [9][10]. Group 3: Cultural Exchange - Starmer's visit also included cultural exchanges, with representatives from cultural institutions participating, indicating a broader approach to UK-China relations beyond just economic ties [11][13]. - The importance of learning Chinese was highlighted as a way to strengthen bilateral relations, with initiatives like university exchange programs being considered [13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent dialogue meeting indicates a shift in the dynamics between the U.S. and Germany regarding China, with the U.S. showing little interest in coordinating policies with Germany, leading to a lack of coherent strategy towards China [1][6]. Group 1: U.S.-Germany Dialogue - The U.S. and Germany have held regular "U.S.-Germany dialogue on China" meetings for 14 years, but this year's meeting revealed a significant change in approach [1][6]. - The meeting took place on January 21-22, coinciding with tensions between Europe and the U.S. over Greenland [1][6]. Group 2: U.S. Participation and Internal Disputes - U.S. participation in the meeting was notably low, with no government representatives present, highlighting a lack of interest in coordinating with Germany on China [3][8]. - There are ongoing internal disputes within the U.S. government regarding the direction of China policy, described as "conceptual differences" [3][8]. Group 3: China's Position - China is leveraging the U.S.'s negative impact on other countries to position itself as a reliable partner, with Canada recently shifting its stance towards China [4][8]. - The urgency for Germany to reduce its dependency on both China and the U.S. has increased, as indicated by the handling of the Greenland issue by the Trump administration [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent diplomatic interactions between France and Germany regarding China have revealed significant policy divergences, with France adopting a more confrontational stance while Germany emphasizes continued cooperation [1][3]. Group 1: France's Position - President Macron's initial visit to China aimed to strengthen economic ties, particularly in high-tech and green energy sectors, but he later proposed increasing tariffs on China to address trade deficits upon returning to France [1][3]. - Macron's shift in tone reflects an attempt to respond to rising nationalist sentiments domestically, balancing economic interests with the need to maintain a cooperative relationship with China [3][8]. Group 2: Germany's Position - Germany, represented by Foreign Minister Baerbock, has taken a pragmatic approach, expressing a commitment to deepening cooperation with China and rejecting protectionist policies [3][5]. - The German government recognizes that stable relations with China are crucial for its economic recovery and industrial competitiveness, especially as China is Germany's largest trading partner [5][8]. Group 3: EU's Stance - The EU's overall attitude towards China is evolving, with EU Foreign Minister Kaja Kallas emphasizing the bloc's significant economic influence and ability to exert pressure on China [6]. - This shift aims to strengthen internal unity within the EU while supporting France's tougher stance, contrasting with Germany's more flexible approach [6][8]. Group 4: Implications for Future Relations - The divergence in Franco-German policies towards China highlights the complexities of the global economic landscape and the potential for increased tension within the EU [8]. - The ability of Germany to maintain its independent stance within the EU framework while managing its extensive trade relations with China remains a critical point of observation [8].

Geopolitical Stance - The report indicates a confrontational stance towards China, defining it as a fundamental "economic and strategic threat" to Japan [1] - The report highlights the need to monitor China to protect Japan from danger [1] Economic Security and Cooperation - The report suggests strengthening cooperation with Taiwan in semiconductors, energy, and AI to build a "non-red supply chain" [1]

🗒️高市早苗在对华政策上主张采取对抗的姿态，核心观点是将中国定义为日本根本性的“经济和战略威胁”。在担任经济安保担当大臣期间，她强调必须“监视日本的邻国，特别是中国，以保护日本免受危险”。与赖清德会面时，明确提出了与台湾在半导体、能源和人工智能等领域加强合作，共同构建“非红色供应链”。在国防政策上，高市早苗是积极的“修宪派”，主张修改日本宪法第九条，正式承认自卫队的地位，并赋予其更大的行动自由。她支持增加国防开支，甚至曾表示同意美国在日本部署中程导弹，以增强对中国的威慑力。 ...