跨国企业三季度财报季接近尾声，欧美日等发达经济体主要企业业绩喜忧参半。分析人士认为，当 前欧美市场对人工智能（AI）泡沫担忧有所上升，关税壁垒压缩企业盈利空间，美国消费低迷叠加大 规模裁员，为世界经济增长带来更多风险挑战。 人工智能泡沫引担忧 今年以来，人工智能基础设施投资激增，美国科技股上涨行情创下纪录。第三季度，相关企业业绩 表现稳健，甚至宣布加码投资，然而市场对人工智能的投资热情有所降温。 美国芯片制造商英伟达19日公布的三季度营收、利润均超预期，对四季度业绩预测也高于预期。英 伟达处理器对于建设人工智能基础设施至关重要，其业绩表现被视为此轮投资热潮的"风向标"。一些分 析师却认为，其最新财报不足以完全消除市场不断加深的对人工智能泡沫的担忧。 得益于人工智能服务需求上升，亚马逊、"字母表"公司、微软和元宇宙平台公司三季度业绩高于预 期，均上调资本支出预期，加码人工智能基础设施投资。四家公司预计今年资本支出总计超3800亿美 元，但各自股价对巨额投资反应不一。 分析人士指出，大型科技公司在人工智能方面进行巨额投资，相关收益充满不确定性。市场研究机 构电子商务市场研究公司分析师雅各布·伯恩认为，企业可能难以 ...

澳大利亚"对话"网站文章认为，在高估值环境下，一旦人工智能发展逊于预期，金融市场将面临沉重打 击。 得益于人工智能服务需求上升，亚马逊、"字母表"公司、微软和元宇宙平台公司三季度业绩高于预期， 均上调资本支出预期，加码人工智能基础设施投资。四家公司预计今年资本支出总计超3800亿美元，但 各自股价对巨额投资反应不一。 分析人士指出，大型科技公司在人工智能方面进行巨额投资，相关收益充满不确定性。市场研究机构电 子商务市场研究公司分析师雅各布·伯恩认为，企业可能难以迅速利用超大规模数据中心提供的产能， 能源、土地、电网接入等物理瓶颈也可能带来阻碍。 美国银行对200余名基金经理的最新调查显示，超半数受访者认为人工智能股票存在泡沫，以"科技股七 巨头"为代表的科技企业投资过度，市场资金过于集中。 新华财经北京11月24日电（记者陈斯达）跨国企业三季度财报季接近尾声，欧美日等发达经济体主要企 业业绩喜忧参半。分析人士认为，当前欧美市场对人工智能（AI）泡沫担忧有所上升，关税壁垒压缩 企业盈利空间，美国消费低迷叠加大规模裁员，为世界经济增长带来更多风险挑战。 人工智能泡沫引担忧 今年以来，人工智能基础设施投资激增，美国 ...

跨国企业三季度财报季接近尾声，欧美日等发达经济体主要企业业绩喜忧参半。分析人士认为，当前欧 美市场对人工智能(AI)泡沫担忧有所上升，关税壁垒压缩企业盈利空间，美国消费低迷叠加大规模裁 员，为世界经济增长带来更多风险挑战。 人工智能泡沫引担忧 今年以来，人工智能基础设施投资激增，美国科技股上涨行情创下纪录。第三季度，相关企业业绩表现 稳健，甚至宣布加码投资，然而市场对人工智能的投资热情有所降温。 美国芯片制造商英伟达19日公布的三季度营收、利润均超预期，对四季度业绩预测也高于预期。英伟达 处理器对于建设人工智能基础设施至关重要，其业绩表现被视为此轮投资热潮的"风向标"。一些分析师 却认为，其最新财报不足以完全消除市场不断加深的对人工智能泡沫的担忧。 得益于人工智能服务需求上升，亚马逊、"字母表"公司、微软和元宇宙平台公司三季度业绩高于预期， 均上调资本支出预期，加码人工智能基础设施投资。四家公司预计今年资本支出总计超3800亿美元，但 各自股价对巨额投资反应不一。 分析人士指出，大型科技公司在人工智能方面进行巨额投资，相关收益充满不确定性。市场研究机构电 子商务市场研究公司分析师雅各布·伯恩认为，企业可能难以 ...

新华社北京11月24日电 题：泡沫、壁垒、裁员——从跨国企业季报看世界经济风险与挑战 新华社记者陈斯达 跨国企业三季度财报季接近尾声，欧美日等发达经济体主要企业业绩喜忧参半。分析人士认为，当 前欧美市场对人工智能（AI）泡沫担忧有所上升，关税壁垒压缩企业盈利空间，美国消费低迷叠加大 规模裁员，为世界经济增长带来更多风险挑战。 人工智能泡沫引担忧 今年以来，人工智能基础设施投资激增，美国科技股上涨行情创下纪录。第三季度，相关企业业绩 表现稳健，甚至宣布加码投资，然而市场对人工智能的投资热情有所降温。 美国芯片制造商英伟达19日公布的三季度营收、利润均超预期，对四季度业绩预测也高于预期。英 伟达处理器对于建设人工智能基础设施至关重要，其业绩表现被视为此轮投资热潮的"风向标"。一些分 析师却认为，其最新财报不足以完全消除市场不断加深的对人工智能泡沫的担忧。 美国关税政策冲击在三季度更加凸显，欧洲及日本众多出口导向型企业季度业绩及全年预期明显受 损，美国企业也在承担关税带来的额外成本。 彭博信息研究公司数据显示，随着财报季接近尾声，明晟欧洲指数每股收益增长率达到5.7%，高 于预期。但关税风险切实体现在欧企财报中。 ...

Core Insights - The article analyzes the performance of 20 multinational instrument companies in the Greater China region amidst escalating global trade tensions, aiming to determine whether the Chinese market is recovering or declining [2][3]. Financial Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, 16 out of 20 multinational instrument companies reported revenue growth, indicating nearly 80% of the companies experienced an upward trend [3]. - The top three companies by revenue in H1 2025 were Thermo Fisher Scientific with $21.22 billion (up 1.59%), Merck at $12.22 billion (up 0.60%), and Danaher at $11.68 billion (up 1.19%) [4][5]. Regional Performance - The Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa were key drivers of revenue growth for most companies, while the Chinese market emerged as a critical variable influencing global performance [6][7]. Chinese Market Opportunities - Waters and Agilent reported significant growth in their Chinese operations, with Waters achieving $777 million in Q2 2025 (up 17%) and Agilent seeing a 10% increase in Q2 [7][8]. - The rapid development of China's biopharmaceutical industry and the demand for high-end instrument replacements were identified as core drivers of growth for these companies [8]. Challenges in the Chinese Market - Despite some companies reporting positive results, industry leader Thermo Fisher experienced a decline in Chinese revenue, with a high single-digit drop in Q2 2025 [10][11]. - Factors such as tariffs, domestic competition, and the impact of local procurement policies have created significant challenges for multinational companies operating in China [14][13]. Long-term Outlook - The Chinese market remains a significant growth opportunity despite short-term challenges, with companies like Thermo Fisher and Sartorius expressing optimism about long-term potential [16][15]. - Recent financial reports indicate a stabilization in revenue, suggesting that the most challenging period may be coming to an end [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel, the contradiction between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns is in a game, and it is difficult to break the short - term narrow - range situation. The fundamental supply of refined nickel is increasing while demand is weakening, which restricts the upward flexibility. The key support lies in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of Indonesia's nickel ore supply governance policy. There is support at the bottom, and long - term volatility may increase [1]. - For stainless steel, the downward space is limited, and there is no effective upward driving force. It is recommended to focus on a conservative range - trading strategy, wait for low - level buying opportunities, and avoid chasing high prices. Demand is suppressed by tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, and supply elasticity may limit the upward space [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Fundamentals Shanghai Nickel - The domestic and overseas visible inventory of refined nickel has returned to the accumulation stage. The market generally expects the slowdown of invisible restocking. The substitution ratio of nickel - iron for nickel plates in the nickel - alloy sector has increased, and there is an expectation of increased production of pure nickel and low - cost wet - process supply in the long - term, which restricts the upward flexibility of Shanghai Nickel [1]. - The core support for the bulls is the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of Indonesia's nickel ore supply governance policy. Although the actual impact is controllable, short - term inspection results may increase market concerns and strengthen the bottom - support logic of nickel ore [1]. Stainless Steel - Demand is jointly suppressed by tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, resulting in a weak consumption peak season. However, the over - drafting effect of early export rush has been basically digested, showing marginal low - level repair [2]. - The supply - side elasticity is relatively large, which may limit the upward space of stainless steel. The production schedule in October increased by 3% month - on - month to 3.45 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The 300 - series is about 1.77 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year/ month - on - month increase of 4.2%/3.5% [2]. - The overall inventory of factories and social warehouses has declined from the high level. Although the year - on - year inventory accumulation in the middle and upstream has basically converged, the absolute inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, and downstream procurement is still cautious, lacking an effective upward driving force [2]. 2. Inventory Tracking - Refined Nickel: The social inventory of refined nickel in China increased by 191 tons to 47,696 tons. Among them, the warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 232 tons to 26,810 tons, the spot inventory increased by 243 tons to 16,816 tons (nickel plates increased by 243 tons, and nickel beans remained unchanged), and the bonded - area inventory increased by 180 tons to 4,070 tons. LME inventory increased by 324 tons to 250,854 tons [5]. - New Energy: On October 24th, the inventory days of the upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate changed by - 1, - 1, and +1 month - on - month to 4, 8, and 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory on October 24th changed by - 1 month - on - month to 12.9 days, and the ternary material inventory on October 23rd remained flat month - on - month at 7.1 days [5]. - Nickel Ore - Nickel Iron - Stainless Steel: On October 15th, the SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,062 tons, with a stable and slightly increasing month - on - month trend and a year - on - year increase of 41%. In September, the SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.532 million tons, with a month - on - year/month - on - month increase/decrease of 4%/ - 1%. On October 23rd, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the Steel Union decreased by 1.33% week - on - week to 1,027,402 tons, and the inventory of the 300 - series stainless steel decreased by 0.89% week - on - week to 649,326 tons [5]. 3. Market News - On September 12th, the Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over a 148 - hectare nickel - ore mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel due to violations of forestry license regulations, which is expected to affect the nickel - ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [7]. - On September 22nd, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees. Once the companies submit claim plan documents and place claim guarantees until 2025, the sanctions will be automatically cancelled [7]. - On September 30th, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order. The approval plan for the next year's mine RKAB is expected to be completed by November 15th this year. According to the transition clause, if the 2026 RKAB has been applied for through the online system but not approved by the end of this year, the 2026 RKAB approved by the minister or governor before the entry into force of this ministerial order can still be used as the basis for exploration or production operations until March 31st, 2026 [7]. - On October 10th, US President Trump claimed on social media that the US might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1st and implement export controls on "all key software" [8].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. tariff policies, particularly against China, are significantly impacting local employment and port operations, leading to a call for improved bilateral relations between the two countries [1]. Group 1: Impact on Employment - The current U.S. tariff policies are causing considerable disruption to local employment, as expressed by American citizens engaged in business activities [1]. Group 2: Business Cooperation - American individuals are actively seeking collaboration with Chinese manufacturing companies, indicating a desire for a friendly agreement between the U.S. and China to facilitate business operations [1].

Group 1 - Trump's unexpected admission that high tariffs are ineffective against China has sparked global attention [1] - The U.S. government had recently threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, indicating a potential escalation in the trade war [1] - China's countermeasures include increased control over rare earth exports and additional port fees for U.S. ships, significantly impacting U.S. businesses and consumers [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. shipping industry is facing increased operational costs due to the additional 400 yuan port fee imposed by China, further straining already weak shipping and energy transport companies [5] - High tariffs have resulted in increased costs for American households, with families spending an additional $2,400 annually on everyday goods, disproportionately affecting low-income families [5] - The trade war has exacerbated wealth inequality in the U.S., with low-income households experiencing greater financial pressure compared to wealthier families [6] Group 3 - The trade conflict has evolved into a "cost game," with the U.S. concerned about inflation while China can endure short-term pressures [6] - Both nations recognize that extreme pressure tactics have reached their limits, suggesting a potential shift towards pragmatic compromise [6][9] - The lessons from the trade war indicate that tariff barriers do not provide protection, and extreme pressure tactics can lead to mutual harm [8][9]

Core Insights - The Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Philippe Aghion, Joel Mokyr, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to understanding innovation-driven economic growth [1][3] - Aghion emphasized the need for Europe to avoid falling behind the US and China in technological innovation and to develop a supportive financial ecosystem for high-tech breakthroughs [3][4] - Mokyr criticized the Trump administration's research policies, labeling them as historically detrimental to the US's leadership in research and education [4][5] Group 1: European Economic Strategy - Aghion warned that Europe must not allow the US and China to dominate in technology, highlighting a significant widening of the wealth gap between the US and the Eurozone since the 1980s [3][4] - He pointed out that Europe has failed to achieve breakthrough innovations in high-tech fields, which has contributed to the growing economic disparity [3][4] - Aghion called for a change in Europe's approach to industrial policy, advocating for a balance between competition policy and industrial policy in sectors like defense, climate, AI, and biotechnology [4] Group 2: Critique of US Policies - Mokyr expressed strong disapproval of the Trump administration's policies, stating they could lead to a loss of the US's leading position in research and education [4][5] - He described the administration's attacks on higher education and research as a significant self-inflicted wound, driven by unrelated political factors [4][5] - Howitt echoed similar sentiments regarding the negative impact of trade policies on innovation and market scale [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's tariff policies, under the banner of "America First," are failing to achieve their intended goals, leading to increased inflation, disrupted supply chains, and a destabilized global economy [2] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Inflation Impact**: Tariffs have contributed to significant price increases for various consumer goods, with coffee prices rising by 26%, beef by 14%, oranges by 17%, bananas by 6%, chicken by 6%, chocolate chip cookies by 5%, chips by 4%, and milk by 4%. In contrast, average wages for workers have only increased by 2% [2] - **Economic Consequences**: The current tariff policies have transformed from a political issue to a direct impact on American households, where consumers face higher costs for basic food items, effectively shrinking their budgets and quality of life [2]