Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is expected to see stable profit growth in H1 2025, with net assets under pressure, driven by a recovery in the stock and bond markets and improved asset-liability matching [1][2]. Group 1: Profit Growth and Asset-Liability Matching - The stock and bond markets are anticipated to recover in H1 2025, leading to an increase in investment yields from FVTPL fixed income and equity assets, which will support stable profit growth for listed insurance companies [1]. - Despite a downward trend in long-term interest rates, which may elevate insurance contract liabilities and negatively impact net assets, the reduction in liability costs and strong performance of OCI financial assets will enhance asset-liability matching [1]. - The net profit margin for life insurance is expected to continue growing on a comparable basis, although individual insurance new business may face pressure while bancassurance new business is projected to grow significantly [1]. Group 2: Property Insurance Premiums and Cost Ratio Improvement - Property insurance premiums are expected to grow slowly in H1 2025, influenced by fluctuations in new car sales and declining average premiums per vehicle, while non-auto insurance is benefiting from structural optimization by leading insurers [2]. - The combined ratio for property insurance is expected to improve due to three main factors: reduced catastrophic losses, ongoing structural optimization by leading insurance companies, and active cost control measures [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The life insurance sector is projected to see continued growth in net business value (NBV), while the combined ratio for property insurance is expected to improve significantly [2]. - With the recovery of the stock and bond markets, listed insurance companies are likely to continue optimizing their asset allocation, further enhancing asset-liability matching [2]. - Current market valuations of insurance stocks reflect pessimistic expectations; therefore, there is an opportunity for valuation recovery in undervalued and underrepresented insurance stocks, maintaining an "overweight" rating for the industry [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [5] Core Views - The company's 2025 life insurance NBV shows resilience, and the dividend policy is positive [5] - In Q1 2025, the company's OPAT and NBV performance was strong, with a 2.4% year-on-year growth in OPAT to 37.9 billion yuan, despite a decline in group revenue and net profit [6] - The life insurance business remains a core pillar, contributing 71.7% of net profit and 70.9% of OPAT in Q1 2025 [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price on May 29, 2025, was 53.52 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 974,611.76 million yuan [3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the group revenue and net profit decreased by 5.2% and 26.4% year-on-year, respectively, to 232.8 billion yuan and 27 billion yuan [6] - The life insurance business achieved a 34.9% growth in NBV, contributing to a 5% OPAT growth [6][7] Business Outlook - The life insurance capacity may face pressure in 2025, requiring strategic products to support sales [7] - The company expects to see rapid growth in its bancassurance market share, with a 171% year-on-year increase in NBV in Q1 2025 [7] - The NBV margin improved by 11.4 percentage points year-on-year to 28.3% in Q1 2025, indicating potential for further margin enhancement [7] Dividend Policy - The company maintains a positive dividend policy, with a commitment to increasing the absolute value of cash dividends annually [10] - The current dividend yield for A-shares and H-shares is 4.76% and 6.00%, respectively [10] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 135.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [11] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 7.42 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 7.2 [11]