报告导读： 低利率环境下，保险公司产品策略由传统险为主向分红险为代表的"利变型"产 品转型，利好降低刚性负债成本，推动资负匹配，维持"增持"。 低利率环境下保险公司过往依赖传统险的产品策略难以为继： 近年来以增额终身寿为代表的理财险得益于锁定收益获得市场追捧，但低利率环境下负债成本 与投资收益率"倒挂"，负债成本难以被投资收益率有效覆盖，资负匹配显著承压；产品结构对利差依赖较高，低利率环境下盈利的不确定性提升；保险公司资 负经营的实质承压与当期利润高速增长"倒挂"，"寅吃卯粮"的经营模式不利于长期经营稳健。 上市险企产品策略由传统险向"利变型"分红险转型，利好改善资负经营压力： 保险公司 2025 年开门红普遍提升分红险产品销售，预计利好降低刚性负债成 本；新会计准则下分红险采用 VFA 法计量，利好改善利润及净资产稳定性；参考海外保险公司经验，利率下行周期同样增加利率敏感产品缓解负债成本压 力。 分红险转型有赖资负端共同推动，需关注薄利保单对利润负面影响。 降低负债成本监管导向下，预计各家保险公司 25 年转型分红险较为坚定，预计需资负 端共同推动：分红实现率"限高"利好改善利差损，预计投资能力强的公司更受 ...

国泰海通主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，当前寿险公司坚定进行分红险转型，预计利好缓解刚性负债 成本压力，提升净利润及净资产稳定。长期看，分红险的转型有赖于渠道、产品、投资等各部位通力合 作。此外，稳股市背景下，该行建议重视低估值且欠配的权重股的机会，非银权重股从"基本面的边际 思维"转向"总量风险收益比的总量思维"。维持行业"增持"评级。 低利率环境下保险公司过往依赖传统险的产品策略难以为继 上市险企产品策略由传统险向"利变型"分红险转型，利好改善资负经营压力 保险公司2025年开门红普遍提升分红险产品销售，预计利好降低刚性负债成本;新会计准则下分红险采 用VFA法计量，利好改善利润及净资产稳定性;参考海外保险公司经验，利率下行周期同样增加利率敏 感产品缓解负债成本压力。 分红险转型有赖资负端共同推动，需关注薄利保单对利润负面影响 降低负债成本监管导向下，预计各家保险公司25年转型分红险较为坚定，预计需资负端共同推动：分红 实现率"限高"利好改善利差损，预计投资能力强的公司更受益;分红险考验代理人销售能力，预计渠道 转型进一步深化。同时，资负管理重要性提升，薄利VFA保单对盈利负面影响 ...

股债市场回暖叠加资产配置优化，预计 25H1 利润稳健增长，净资产仍有压力： 1 ） 2025 年上半年股 债市场表现回暖，我们预计上市险企持有的 FVTPL 固收资产及 FVTPL 权益资产共同推动投资收益率提 升，推动利润稳定增长。 2 ）基于 25H1 长端利率仍处于下行趋势，我们预计负债评估利率的下降导 致 保险合同负债抬升，对净资产产生负面影响，但得益于上市险企负债成本压降以及资产端 OCI 类金融资 产投资收益表现较好，推动资负匹配持续改善。 报告导读： 我们预计上市险企 25H1 净利润稳健增长，净资产仍有压力；可比口径下寿 险 NBV 延续增长，财险 COR 改善；资负匹配持续改善，看好保险股估值修复。 预计可比口径下寿险 NBV 延续增长。 我们预计 25H1 上市险企个险新单有所承压，银保新单大幅增长。 分红险转型加速推进，我们预计负债成本呈现改善趋势。我们预计可比口径下 NBV 延续增长，但低利率 环境下价值实现度有所降低。 预计财险保费缓慢增长，降赔控费下 COR 改善。 1 ）我们预计 2025 年上半年上市险企财险保费缓慢增 长。车险受新车销售波动以及车均保费下降影响增速放缓，非车 ...

1)长期资金入市，权益投资有望贡献弹性。2)行业投资组合结构：债券和权益投资比例有望持续提升， 债券占比维持高位同时结构不断优化，边际来看占比增速或将放缓。长期资金入市，股票配置占比预计 将持续提升。人身险公司纯股票配置占比8.4%，同比+0.9 pct，连续三个季度保持回升;财险公司纯股票 占比7.6%，同比+0.4 pct，同样延续小幅上行趋势。3)IFRS9下的投资组合：OCI有望持续增配，以高股 息高分红标的寻找确定性。 内含价值：NBV有望持续改善，头部险企EV增长分化，聚焦资负匹配能力 伴随分红险切换和渠道"报行合一"费用管控，长期投资收益率假设调整的负面影响有望逐步消化，潜在 利差损压力有望逐步减轻，后续资产负债更为匹配、业务结构和渠道质态较好的险企有望更为受益， ROEV整体表现有望显著回暖。 风险提示：政策不及预期、资本市场波动加大、居民财富增长不及预期、长期利率下行超预期、险企改 革不及预期。 1)保费增长：新单保费预计继续承压，结构质态有望改善，NBV预计延续正增长。新单保费方面，该行 预计2025年主要上市险企整体仍将承压，除新华保险外，预计将维持负增长，总保费方面，由于有过去 续期保 ...

Group 1: Food and Beverage - The investment suggestion emphasizes structural differentiation and growth potential, with a focus on new consumption and high growth in consumer goods, while the liquor sector is in a bottoming phase, highlighting its value for allocation [2][3] - The liquor industry is experiencing increased differentiation and rationality, with the industry still seeking a bottom in Q2 2025, and the head companies showing resilience during the off-season [2] - Beer is expected to recover as the peak season approaches, while the beverage sector is in a phase of releasing single product potential [3] Group 2: Cosmetics - The investment recommendation suggests increasing holdings in personal care and beauty sectors, focusing on companies benefiting from product innovation and new channel opportunities [6] - The demand for cosmetics remains stable, with domestic brands gaining market share, particularly in skincare and makeup categories [6] - Trends indicate accelerated product innovation and emotional consumption, with a focus on cost-effective products benefiting from supply-demand dynamics [6] Group 3: Education and Consumer Services - The high school education sector is projected to have a stable demand for the next 7-8 years, supported by policy initiatives aimed at expanding education [12] - Emotional and experiential consumption is accelerating, with traditional demands being met by new supply, particularly in the IP toy sector [12] - The tea and coffee sectors are undergoing product, channel, and technological iterations, indicating structural growth opportunities [12] Group 4: Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is witnessing a recovery led by major brands, with a focus on price competition and market consolidation [17] - New consumption trends are emerging, with high aesthetic product designs and AI integration driving innovation in the sector [17] - Investment suggestions highlight opportunities in both domestic and international markets for leading brands [17] Group 5: Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - The agricultural sector maintains a "buy" rating, with slow growth expected in livestock output and a recovery in the animal health feed sector [29] - The pet food market is experiencing robust growth, driven by domestic brands gaining market competitiveness [29] - The planting sector is expected to see rising grain prices due to reduced import volumes, with core seed varieties becoming increasingly important [30] Group 6: Internet and AI - The investment outlook for the internet sector remains positive, particularly for technology stocks, with a focus on AI-driven growth [34] - The AI narrative is expected to enhance the value of social networks, with a strong emphasis on user engagement and ecosystem development [59] - The evolution of AI capabilities is anticipated to create new demand and enhance the social network's value proposition [59] Group 7: Non-Banking Financials - The non-banking financial sector is undergoing significant transformation, with a focus on wealth management and asset management business models [73] - The recommendation is to favor leading comprehensive brokerages that demonstrate balanced business structures and strong professional capabilities [73] - The insurance sector is expected to see stable growth in new business value, with an emphasis on improving asset allocation [76] Group 8: Banking - The banking sector is projected to face revenue pressure but maintain positive net profit growth, with a stable policy environment supporting sustainable operations [79] - The expectation of increased long-term capital inflow into the banking sector is driven by regulatory changes and market dynamics [80] - Investment strategies suggest focusing on high-growth regional banks and those showing signs of loan recovery [81]

南方财经全媒体记者 孙诗卉 实习生 关晶月 上海报道 近期，随着2025年一季度人身险公司偿付能力报告陆续披露，行业整体呈现"总量趋稳、结构分化"的复 杂图景。73家有可比数据人身险公司合计实现保险业务收入达1.37万亿元，同比增长3.16%，但超半数 公司保费收入出现下滑，头部险企与中小险企的差距进一步拉大；与此同时，74家有可比数据的人身险 公司净利润合计约866亿元，同比大增超40%，"扭亏为盈"成为关键词，泰康人寿、中邮人寿等公司表 现尤为亮眼。 投资端表现喜忧参半，部分中小险企收益率亮眼，但超四成公司综合投资收益率为负。与此同时，中小 险企在资本实力、渠道稳定性及抗风险能力上的挑战仍在。 西部证券研报显示，人身险新业务价值保持较高增速，价值率明显攀升。良好表现主要得益于银保渠道 量价齐升，费用成本受报行合一影响大幅下降、销售规模阵痛期后显著高增；此外代理人渠道以分红险 为代表的产品结构持续优化，预定利率下降也带来了成本改善。 | | | 2025年Q1寿险公司休贺似入排行削了 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 公司 | 2025Q1(亿元) | 同比变动 | ...