尿素产业链周报 尿素产业链周报 2025/10/19 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：刘琛瑞 Z0017093 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View High inventory and increased supply suppress the price, but the Indian tender expectation and cost support limit a significant decline. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Fundamental Points - India's NFL launched a new tender for 2 million tons (bid closing on September 2nd), and the potential export demand boosts market confidence, with short - term sentiment being positive [4]. - The price of thermal coal is rising steadily, the loss of the fixed - bed process is expanding, and the cost support is strengthening marginally [4]. - The total inventory of urea enterprises continues to increase, reaching the peak in the same period in the past five years, which restricts the upside [4]. - The weekly output is increasing, and new production capacity is planned to be released from August to September, so the supply pressure remains [4]. Urea Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: The total inventory of urea enterprises continues to increase, reaching the peak in the same period in the past five years [4]. There are also data on China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, etc. [7][8] - **Futures and Spot Price**: Data on urea futures main - contract trading volume, open interest, warehouse receipts, as well as spot prices in Henan and Shandong, and related basis and price differences are presented [10][15][19] - **Production Cost and Profit**: Data on the production cost and profit of urea produced by fixed - bed, natural gas, and water - coal slurry gasification methods are provided [27][29] - **Production - related Data**: Information on production enterprise's backlog order days, capacity utilization rate, total daily output, and new production capacity plan is included [32][34] - **Compound Fertilizer**: Data on compound fertilizer's capacity utilization rate, inventory, production cost, and production gross profit are provided [39] - **External Market and Cost - related**: Data on the FOB prices of urea in the Middle East and China, as well as thermal coal spot prices and port inventory are presented [43][44][47]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently under pressure in the short term. In the near - term, it is in the off - season for agricultural demand, and industrial production load is decreasing. Affected by the September 3rd military parade, some compound fertilizer and board factories in Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei and surrounding provinces have received requirements for production suspension and restriction after mid - August, and freight transportation in some areas will be significantly restricted. In the medium - term, the second batch of urea exports will support the demand side, and inventory may not accumulate significantly in the short term. The urea market is in a pattern with support at the bottom and suppression at the top, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 and 1850 [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Some enterprises are under maintenance this period, including Shaanxi Aowei Qianyuan Chemical, Henan Jinkai Chemical, and Hulunbuir Jinxin Chemical. Some enterprises have resumed production, such as Shaanxi Shanhua Coal Chemical, Henan Jinkai Chemical, and Jingyuan Coal Industry Group. The daily urea output next week will be around 200,000 tons [4]. Inventory - As of August 20, 2025, China's urea production enterprises produced 1.3611 million tons, an increase of 12,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.93%. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 6.95% [4]. Demand - Domestic demand remains weak. The agricultural top - dressing demand in the northern region has basically ended. The compound fertilizer industry has a large sales pressure on finished products recently, with a low operating rate, limited demand for urea raw material procurement, and low acceptance of high - priced urea supplies [4]. Spot - On Sunday this week, the price in Shandong is 1660 (01 basis - 80), and in Henan is 1670 (01 basis - 70) [5]. Strategy View - In the short term, due to the off - season of agricultural demand and production suspension and restriction requirements, the market is under pressure. In the medium - term, exports will support the demand side. Factory backlog orders and inventory pressure increase, and spot quotes decline, but there may be a phased rebound with the opening of export channels. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 and 1850 [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Urea maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a game between cost support and export restrictions. Lacking a breakthrough driver, it is expected to continue range - bound trading [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental and Views - **Supply - related**: Device overhauls increased, weekly production decreased by 26,000 tons compared to the previous week, and factory inventory decreased to 888,000 tons, slightly alleviating supply pressure [4]. - **Cost - related**: Coal prices stabilized and rose slightly. Coupled with the potential impact of the old - device inspection policy, the cost line of the fixed - bed process supported the price [4]. - **Demand - related**: In August, it is the gap period between the end of top - dressing and autumn fertilizer preparation. Agricultural demand support is limited, and the compound fertilizer operation rate is only 41.5%. Industrial demand is weak [4]. - **Export - related**: The second quota is unclear, and the international price is lower than the domestic price limit (440 - 445 US dollars/ton), hindering actual export orders [4]. Urea Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: There are data on China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, and compound fertilizer inventory [7][8][38]. - **Futures**: Data on the position volume, trading volume, total number of warehouse receipts, and effective warehouse receipt forecasts of the urea futures main contract are presented [10][12][13][15]. - **Price**: There are data on the market prices of small - sized urea in Henan and Shandong, the price difference between large and small - sized urea in Henan and Shandong, and the seasonal price differences of urea 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 [17][18][20][21][23][25][27]. - **Cost and Profit**: Data on the production costs and profits of urea produced by fixed - bed, natural gas, and coal - water slurry gasification processes, as well as the production cost, profit, and production cost in Shandong of compound fertilizer are provided [28][30][31][32][40][46]. - **Production and Operation Rate**: There are data on the number of days of pending orders of urea production enterprises, urea capacity utilization rate, total daily urea production, compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, and power coal port inventory [33][35][37][38][47]. - **International Price**: Data on the FOB prices of small - sized urea in China and the Middle East are presented [42][43]. - **Power Coal**: Data on the spot price of power coal are provided [44].

Report Title - Urea Industry Chain Weekly Report [1][2] Report Date - August 10, 2025 [2] Researcher Information - Author: Liu Chenrui Z0017093 [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [3] Fundamental Information and Views Fundamental Points - Capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.62% week-on-week to 81.98%. Maintenance of coal/gas-based plants increased, and supply pressure eased marginally [4]. - Total inventory dropped to 887,600 tons. Some enterprises reduced prices to attract orders, driving inventory reduction [4]. - Absolute inventory remains at a historical high. With daily production maintained at around 190,000 tons, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged [4]. - Agricultural demand has entered a seasonal off - peak. Finished product inventory accumulation in compound fertilizer plants restrains raw material procurement, and export order conversion is not smooth [4]. Views - Although supply has contracted marginally, high inventory and weak domestic demand suppress the rebound space. Export benefits are difficult to sustain, and it will continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [5]. Urea Fundamental Data Inventory - Related - Data on China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi urea inventory, and urea inventory (ports + inland) are presented [7][8][9] Futures - Related - Data on urea futures main contract positions, trading volume, total number of warehouse receipts, and valid warehouse receipt forecasts are shown [10][11][13] Price - Related - Data on Henan small - particle market price, basis, size - particle price difference, Shandong small - particle market price, basis, size - particle price difference, and various seasonal price differences of urea are provided [14][16][18] Cost and Profit - Related - Data on the production costs and profits of fixed - bed, natural - gas, and coal - water slurry gasification methods for urea production are presented [26][28][30] Production - Related - Data on urea production enterprise's pending order days, capacity utilization rate, total daily output, compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, inventory, and production profit are shown [31][33][36] International Price - Related - Data on China's small - particle FOB price and Middle East small - particle FOB price are provided [39][40] Other Related - Data on thermal coal spot price, port inventory, and compound fertilizer production cost in Shandong are presented [41][43][44]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The maintenance support and export containerization offset the off - season of agricultural demand. However, policy uncertainty and high inventory suppress the price rebound, and the price will continue to be weakly sorted [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental and Views - **Supply**: In August, the planned maintenance increases, and the production is expected to drop to 5.8 million tons, and the supply pressure will ease month - on - month [4]. - **Inventory and Export**: The port inventory exceeds 500,000 tons, and the export quota promotes continuous containerization, providing support for demand [4]. - **Agricultural Demand**: The use of corn fertilizer is ending, the preparation for wheat fertilizer has not started. Although the start - up rate of compound fertilizers has increased, the inventory preparation is cautious [4]. - **Market Sentiment**: The rumor of restrictions on small - package exports has spread, and traders resist high prices. The spot price has dropped by 0.9% this week [4]. Urea Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: Multiple inventory data charts are provided, including China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi urea inventory, etc., showing the inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [7][8][9]. - **Futures Market**: Charts of futures main - contract positions, trading volume, warehouse receipt quantity, and effective warehouse receipt forecasts are presented, showing the trends from 2021 to 2025 [10][12][14]. - **Price**: Various price - related charts are included, such as the daily market price of small - particle urea in Henan and Shandong, the price difference between large and small particles, and the seasonal price differences between different contract months [17][19][24]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts of production costs and profits of different urea production methods (fixed - bed, natural - gas, water - coal - slurry gasification) are provided, as well as the production profit of compound fertilizers in Shandong [28][30][41]. - **Production - related Data**: Data on production - related indicators such as the number of days of pending orders of urea production enterprises, capacity utilization rate, total daily output, and compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate are presented [33][35][39]. - **External Market and Raw Materials**: Charts of FOB prices in the Middle East and China, and the spot price and port inventory of thermal coal are provided [43][44][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for urea is under pressure. As the May Day holiday approaches, urea compound fertilizer downstream will increase replenishment moderately. Currently, mid - stream distributors have about 50% of the goods, and the progress of mid - stream distribution to the lower reaches is low. After May Day, the terminal grass - roots market is expected to start. During the agricultural demand slack period, traders may make appropriate low - price purchases based on the price. The weak urea expectation is gradually reflected in the 09 contract. Before entering the agricultural demand off - season, urea is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern. Overall, the urea fundamentals are in a state where the supply - demand pattern is gradually strengthening, and attention should be paid to the sentiment reversal of the urea 09 contract [2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - In this cycle, some enterprises such as Shandong Runyin Biochemical, Yangmei Fengxi Fertilizer, Shaanxi Shanhua Coal Chemical, Wushi Petrochemical, and Shanxi Tianze Coal Chemical are under maintenance. The enterprises that have resumed production are Henan Jinkong Tianqing Coal Chemical, Shandong Union Chemical, and Shandong Runyin Biochemical. Next week, the daily urea production will be around 193,000 tons [5] Inventory - As of April 23, 2025, the domestic urea enterprise inventory is 1.065 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 158,800 tons, and the urea inventory at major Chinese ports is 117,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,000 tons [5] Demand - In the agricultural market, there are obvious north - south differences. The four provinces of Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Shanxi are in the gap period after spring plowing fertilization and before summer corn fertilization. In some rice - growing areas in the south, the terminal fertilization rhythm is affected by factors such as drought. In the industrial aspect, compound fertilizer factories have sufficient raw material inventory, so their purchasing enthusiasm is limited, and other panel factories maintain a lukewarm purchasing rhythm. It is expected that the market demand will be mainly sporadic and phased replenishment in the short term [5] Spot - On Sunday this week, the price in Shandong is 1,750 (05 basis - 7), and the price in Henan is 1,730 (05 basis - 27) [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of urea are in a gradually weakening supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to the sentiment reversal of the urea 09 contract. The urea is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern before entering the agricultural off - season. The weak expectation of urea is gradually reflected in the 09 contract, and the price is expected to decline [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Some enterprises had maintenance this cycle, including Shandong Runyin Biological Chemical, Yangmei Fengxi Fertilizer Industry, Shaanxi Shanhua Coal Chemical, Wushi Petrochemical, and Shanxi Tianze Coal Chemical. Enterprises that resumed production this cycle were Henan Jinkong Tianqing Coal Chemical, Shandong Union Chemical, and Shandong Runyin Biological Chemical. Next week, the daily urea production will be around 193,000 tons [4]. Inventory - As of April 16, 2025, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises in China was 906,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 72,500 tons, and the inventory of major ports in China was 112,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons [4]. Demand - In the agricultural sector, the northern agriculture is in a stagnant stage, and the fertilizer use in the southern rice - growing areas is following up in stages. However, due to poor rainfall, the agricultural demand replenishment has slowed down. In the industrial sector, some small factories in the compound fertilizer industry face the problem of insufficient orders and shut down, but there is still phased demand. Compound fertilizer factories still need to replenish raw materials to fulfill previous orders. In the short term, the demand side will still follow up based on rigid demand [4]. Spot - On Sunday this week, the price in Shandong was 1,800 (05 basis + 27), and in Henan was 1,790 (05 basis + 17). The spot trading of urea improved on Friday, and both spot and futures rebounded during the day. But the spot trading returned to light this weekend, and the grass - roots level in the northern region is still stagnant, with prices expected to decline [5]. Strategy - Before entering the agricultural off - season, urea is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern. The current fundamentals of urea are in a gradually weakening supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to the sentiment reversal of the urea 09 contract [5].