Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View High inventory and increased supply suppress the price, but the Indian tender expectation and cost support limit a significant decline. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Fundamental Points - India's NFL launched a new tender for 2 million tons (bid closing on September 2nd), and the potential export demand boosts market confidence, with short - term sentiment being positive [4]. - The price of thermal coal is rising steadily, the loss of the fixed - bed process is expanding, and the cost support is strengthening marginally [4]. - The total inventory of urea enterprises continues to increase, reaching the peak in the same period in the past five years, which restricts the upside [4]. - The weekly output is increasing, and new production capacity is planned to be released from August to September, so the supply pressure remains [4]. Urea Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: The total inventory of urea enterprises continues to increase, reaching the peak in the same period in the past five years [4]. There are also data on China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, etc. [7][8] - **Futures and Spot Price**: Data on urea futures main - contract trading volume, open interest, warehouse receipts, as well as spot prices in Henan and Shandong, and related basis and price differences are presented [10][15][19] - **Production Cost and Profit**: Data on the production cost and profit of urea produced by fixed - bed, natural gas, and water - coal slurry gasification methods are provided [27][29] - **Production - related Data**: Information on production enterprise's backlog order days, capacity utilization rate, total daily output, and new production capacity plan is included [32][34] - **Compound Fertilizer**: Data on compound fertilizer's capacity utilization rate, inventory, production cost, and production gross profit are provided [39] - **External Market and Cost - related**: Data on the FOB prices of urea in the Middle East and China, as well as thermal coal spot prices and port inventory are presented [43][44][47]

观点：近月承压 南华尿素产业链数据周报20250824 张博（Z0021070） 尿素区域现货流通图 2 尿素周报观点 供应：本期部分企业检修：陕西奥维乾元化工、河南晋开化工、呼伦贝尔金新化工。本期恢复的企业：陕西陕化煤 化工、河南晋开化工、靖远煤业集团。下周尿素日产量将在 20万吨附近。 库存：截至2025年8月20日，中国尿素生产企业产量：136.11万吨，较上期涨1.25万吨，环比涨0.93%。中国尿素企业 总库存量102.39万吨，较上周增加6.65万吨，环比增加6.95%。 需求：内需持续偏弱。北方地区农业追肥需求基本结束。复合肥行业近期产成品销售压力较大，开工率维持低位， 对尿素原料采购需求较为有限，对高价尿素货源接受度低。 现货：本周日山东1660（01基差-80），河南1670（01基差-70） 策略观点：近期农业需求淡季，工业开工负荷下降，受9月3日大阅兵仪式影响，京津冀及周边省份的部分复合肥、 板厂已收到8月中旬后开始停产限产的要求，且部分区域货物运输将明显受限。中期而言，尿素二批次出口对需求端 形成一定支撑，需求端有贸易商在陆续进行出口提货，库存短期或难以大幅累库。工厂待发订单与库存压力 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Urea maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a game between cost support and export restrictions. Lacking a breakthrough driver, it is expected to continue range - bound trading [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental and Views - **Supply - related**: Device overhauls increased, weekly production decreased by 26,000 tons compared to the previous week, and factory inventory decreased to 888,000 tons, slightly alleviating supply pressure [4]. - **Cost - related**: Coal prices stabilized and rose slightly. Coupled with the potential impact of the old - device inspection policy, the cost line of the fixed - bed process supported the price [4]. - **Demand - related**: In August, it is the gap period between the end of top - dressing and autumn fertilizer preparation. Agricultural demand support is limited, and the compound fertilizer operation rate is only 41.5%. Industrial demand is weak [4]. - **Export - related**: The second quota is unclear, and the international price is lower than the domestic price limit (440 - 445 US dollars/ton), hindering actual export orders [4]. Urea Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: There are data on China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, and compound fertilizer inventory [7][8][38]. - **Futures**: Data on the position volume, trading volume, total number of warehouse receipts, and effective warehouse receipt forecasts of the urea futures main contract are presented [10][12][13][15]. - **Price**: There are data on the market prices of small - sized urea in Henan and Shandong, the price difference between large and small - sized urea in Henan and Shandong, and the seasonal price differences of urea 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 [17][18][20][21][23][25][27]. - **Cost and Profit**: Data on the production costs and profits of urea produced by fixed - bed, natural gas, and coal - water slurry gasification processes, as well as the production cost, profit, and production cost in Shandong of compound fertilizer are provided [28][30][31][32][40][46]. - **Production and Operation Rate**: There are data on the number of days of pending orders of urea production enterprises, urea capacity utilization rate, total daily urea production, compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, and power coal port inventory [33][35][37][38][47]. - **International Price**: Data on the FOB prices of small - sized urea in China and the Middle East are presented [42][43]. - **Power Coal**: Data on the spot price of power coal are provided [44].

Report Title - Urea Industry Chain Weekly Report [1][2] Report Date - August 10, 2025 [2] Researcher Information - Author: Liu Chenrui Z0017093 [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [3] Fundamental Information and Views Fundamental Points - Capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.62% week-on-week to 81.98%. Maintenance of coal/gas-based plants increased, and supply pressure eased marginally [4]. - Total inventory dropped to 887,600 tons. Some enterprises reduced prices to attract orders, driving inventory reduction [4]. - Absolute inventory remains at a historical high. With daily production maintained at around 190,000 tons, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged [4]. - Agricultural demand has entered a seasonal off - peak. Finished product inventory accumulation in compound fertilizer plants restrains raw material procurement, and export order conversion is not smooth [4]. Views - Although supply has contracted marginally, high inventory and weak domestic demand suppress the rebound space. Export benefits are difficult to sustain, and it will continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [5]. Urea Fundamental Data Inventory - Related - Data on China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi urea inventory, and urea inventory (ports + inland) are presented [7][8][9] Futures - Related - Data on urea futures main contract positions, trading volume, total number of warehouse receipts, and valid warehouse receipt forecasts are shown [10][11][13] Price - Related - Data on Henan small - particle market price, basis, size - particle price difference, Shandong small - particle market price, basis, size - particle price difference, and various seasonal price differences of urea are provided [14][16][18] Cost and Profit - Related - Data on the production costs and profits of fixed - bed, natural - gas, and coal - water slurry gasification methods for urea production are presented [26][28][30] Production - Related - Data on urea production enterprise's pending order days, capacity utilization rate, total daily output, compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, inventory, and production profit are shown [31][33][36] International Price - Related - Data on China's small - particle FOB price and Middle East small - particle FOB price are provided [39][40] Other Related - Data on thermal coal spot price, port inventory, and compound fertilizer production cost in Shandong are presented [41][43][44]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The maintenance support and export containerization offset the off - season of agricultural demand. However, policy uncertainty and high inventory suppress the price rebound, and the price will continue to be weakly sorted [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental and Views - **Supply**: In August, the planned maintenance increases, and the production is expected to drop to 5.8 million tons, and the supply pressure will ease month - on - month [4]. - **Inventory and Export**: The port inventory exceeds 500,000 tons, and the export quota promotes continuous containerization, providing support for demand [4]. - **Agricultural Demand**: The use of corn fertilizer is ending, the preparation for wheat fertilizer has not started. Although the start - up rate of compound fertilizers has increased, the inventory preparation is cautious [4]. - **Market Sentiment**: The rumor of restrictions on small - package exports has spread, and traders resist high prices. The spot price has dropped by 0.9% this week [4]. Urea Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: Multiple inventory data charts are provided, including China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi urea inventory, etc., showing the inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [7][8][9]. - **Futures Market**: Charts of futures main - contract positions, trading volume, warehouse receipt quantity, and effective warehouse receipt forecasts are presented, showing the trends from 2021 to 2025 [10][12][14]. - **Price**: Various price - related charts are included, such as the daily market price of small - particle urea in Henan and Shandong, the price difference between large and small particles, and the seasonal price differences between different contract months [17][19][24]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts of production costs and profits of different urea production methods (fixed - bed, natural - gas, water - coal - slurry gasification) are provided, as well as the production profit of compound fertilizers in Shandong [28][30][41]. - **Production - related Data**: Data on production - related indicators such as the number of days of pending orders of urea production enterprises, capacity utilization rate, total daily output, and compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate are presented [33][35][39]. - **External Market and Raw Materials**: Charts of FOB prices in the Middle East and China, and the spot price and port inventory of thermal coal are provided [43][44][48].

观点：短期承压 南华尿素产业链数据周报20250427 张博（Z0021070） 尿素区域现货流通图 2 尿素周报观点 供应：本周期部分企业检修：本周期部分企业检修：山东润银生物化工、阳煤丰喜肥业、陕西陕化煤化工、乌石化 、山西天泽煤化工。本周期恢复的企业：河南晋控天庆煤化工、山东联盟化工、山东润银生物化工。下周尿素日产 量将在 19.3万吨附近。 库存：截至2025年4月23日，国内尿素企业库存量 106.50 万吨，环比+15.88万吨，中国主要港口尿素库存统计 11.7 万吨，环比+0.5 万吨。 需求：农业市场当前南北差异明显，山河四省处于春耕用肥结束，夏季玉米肥暂未启动的空档期，而南方部分水稻 区域也听闻因天气干旱等原因，影响终端用肥节奏。工业方面，复合肥工厂原料库存充足之下采购积极性有限，其 他板厂等依旧维持不温不火的采购节奏。预计短期内市场需求面零星阶段性补货为主。 现货：本周日山东1750（05基差-7），河南1730（05基差-27） 策略观点：随着五一临近，尿素复合肥下游将适当增加补仓，目前铺货中游经销商5成左右，中游往下铺货进度不高 ，五一后终端基层预计会启动。农业刚需空档期，但贸易商或 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of urea are in a gradually weakening supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to the sentiment reversal of the urea 09 contract. The urea is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern before entering the agricultural off - season. The weak expectation of urea is gradually reflected in the 09 contract, and the price is expected to decline [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Some enterprises had maintenance this cycle, including Shandong Runyin Biological Chemical, Yangmei Fengxi Fertilizer Industry, Shaanxi Shanhua Coal Chemical, Wushi Petrochemical, and Shanxi Tianze Coal Chemical. Enterprises that resumed production this cycle were Henan Jinkong Tianqing Coal Chemical, Shandong Union Chemical, and Shandong Runyin Biological Chemical. Next week, the daily urea production will be around 193,000 tons [4]. Inventory - As of April 16, 2025, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises in China was 906,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 72,500 tons, and the inventory of major ports in China was 112,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons [4]. Demand - In the agricultural sector, the northern agriculture is in a stagnant stage, and the fertilizer use in the southern rice - growing areas is following up in stages. However, due to poor rainfall, the agricultural demand replenishment has slowed down. In the industrial sector, some small factories in the compound fertilizer industry face the problem of insufficient orders and shut down, but there is still phased demand. Compound fertilizer factories still need to replenish raw materials to fulfill previous orders. In the short term, the demand side will still follow up based on rigid demand [4]. Spot - On Sunday this week, the price in Shandong was 1,800 (05 basis + 27), and in Henan was 1,790 (05 basis + 17). The spot trading of urea improved on Friday, and both spot and futures rebounded during the day. But the spot trading returned to light this weekend, and the grass - roots level in the northern region is still stagnant, with prices expected to decline [5]. Strategy - Before entering the agricultural off - season, urea is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern. The current fundamentals of urea are in a gradually weakening supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to the sentiment reversal of the urea 09 contract [5].