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尿素早评:区间震荡-20251112
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 05:03
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Although the fourth urea export quota has boosted recent market sentiment, the 600,000 - ton volume is not large compared to the current urea supply, and the futures market has declined slightly in the past two days. However, the export quota is beneficial for alleviating domestic supply - demand pressure, and the fourth - quarter urea winter storage will gradually start nationwide, so the urea price is supported. In the 10.21 report, it was recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options, and it is noted that the 12 - contract options will expire today [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - UR01 futures price closed at 1640 yuan/ton on November 11, down 20 yuan/ton (-1.20%) from November 10; UR05 closed at 1717 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.87%); UR09 closed at 1738 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.97%). Among domestic spot prices, only Shandong's price decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.62%), while other regions remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream, the prices of anthracite coal in Henan, Shanxi, and Shandong remained unchanged. Downstream, the prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan increased by 30 yuan/ton (1.02% and 1.20% respectively), the price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.33%), and the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1660 yuan/ton, with a high of 1662 yuan/ton, a low of 1636 yuan/ton, a close of 1640 yuan/ton, a settlement price of 1648 yuan/ton, and a position of 254,037 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Stop losses for selling put options on the 12 - contract [1]
尿素早评:出口预期再起-20251111
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 02:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - Urea has strengthened recently because market news indicates that the fourth export quota of urea has been finalized, about 600,000 tons, which helps relieve domestic supply - demand pressure. Also, the fourth - quarter urea winter storage will gradually start nationwide, and the rebound of urea at a low valuation is in line with previous judgments. The 12 - contract put - selling options recommended in the 10.21 report can be considered for gradual profit - taking as the 12 - contract options are about to expire [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1,660 yuan/ton on November 10, down 7 yuan or 0.42% from November 7. UR05 closed at 1,732 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.12%. UR09 closed at 1,755 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.11% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices - Spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, and Jiangsu increased, with Hebei having the largest increase of 40 yuan or 2.52% to 1,630 yuan/ton. Prices in the Northeast remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 was - 112 yuan/ton on November 10, up 22 yuan from November 7. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 72 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [1]. Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased by 50 yuan or 1.72% to 2,950 yuan/ton. The price of melamine in Shandong increased by 10 yuan or 0.20% to 5,093 yuan/ton. Other downstream prices remained unchanged [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1,670 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,670 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,652 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,660 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,661 yuan/ton, and the position was 257,574 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - Consider gradually taking profit on the 12 - contract put - selling options [1].
尿素早评:出口预期再起-20251110
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 07:19
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The previous trading day's urea futures opened higher and fluctuated. Market news indicated that the fourth export quota for urea had been finalized at approximately 600,000 tons. Although this is not a large amount compared to the current urea supply, it helps alleviate domestic supply - demand pressure. The winter storage of urea will gradually start nationwide in the fourth quarter, and the rebound of urea at a low valuation is in line with previous judgments. The 12 - contract option is about to expire, and it is advisable to consider gradually taking profits on the sold put options [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On November 7, UR01 in Shanxi was 1,667 yuan/ton (up 23 yuan or 1.40% from November 6), UR05 was 1,734 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan or 0.41%), UR09 was 1,753 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan or 0.17%). In Shandong, the futures price was 1,600 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan or 1.27%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Shandong, it was 1,600 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan or 1.27%); in Henan, 1,600 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan or 1.91%); in Hebei and Northeast, unchanged at 1,590 yuan/ton and 1,610 yuan/ton respectively; in Jiangsu, 1,580 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.64%) [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2,900 yuan/ton and 2,500 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong was 5,083 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.20%), and in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged at 5,150 yuan/ton [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 134 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan from November 6), and the spread of 01 - 05 was - 67 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan) [1] 3. Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1,665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,679 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,656 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,667 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,668 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 268,588 lots [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Consider gradually taking profits on the sold put options of the 12 - contract [1]