Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The urea spot price has slightly declined, with the trading atmosphere weakening recently after being good last week. The start - up rates of compound fertilizer and melamine have increased, and the off - season storage is gradually entering the market. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. The fourth - batch export quota news has improved the year - end export expectation and is expected to support the spot market. The author suggests a range - bound strategy for unilateral trading and a wait - and - see approach for inter - period trading, with no cross - variety strategy [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On November 25, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,630 yuan/ton (-8). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,640 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,630 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1,630 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton (-2), in Henan was 10 yuan/ton (-2), and in Jiangsu was 0 yuan/ton (+8) [1]. 3.2 Urea Production - As of November 25, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (with a 0.08% change). The specific production data is shown in the "Urea Weekly Production" chart [1]. 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - As of November 25, 2025, the urea production profit was 100 yuan/ton (-10). The national capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%), with coal - based capacity utilization rate and gas - based capacity utilization rate details shown in relevant charts [1]. 3.4 Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of November 25, 2025, the urea export profit was 1,012 yuan/ton (+6). In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons, which has improved the year - end export expectation [1][2]. 3.5 Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 25, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 34.61% (+4.29%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 62.20% (+4.72%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (-0.59) [1]. 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 25, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4372 million tons (-46,400), and the port sample inventory was 100,000 tons (+18,000) [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that downstream buyers restocked at low prices, leading to a narrow rebound in spot prices. This week's view is that downstream buyers resist high prices, causing the ex - factory price to operate weakly. With the continuous increase in ex - factory prices since the weekend, market sentiment has cooled, and the spot ex - factory quotes of urea in mainstream areas are weakly stable with sluggish transactions. In the short term, domestic demand is still limited, the agricultural demand has ended, and the compound fertilizer industry has not started on a large scale, so the spot market sentiment remains sluggish. In the medium term, after the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas fades and the autumn fertilizer season in China ends, overall demand is weak, and the urea market is expected to operate weakly. However, currently, some downstream buyers are restocking at low prices, and the Northeast region has increased purchases, so in the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview - The ex - factory prices in Shandong are weakly stable, with a decline in the operating rate of industrial compound fertilizers, sufficient raw material inventory, high finished - product inventory, few grass - roots orders, and mainly rigid - demand replenishment. In Henan, the market sentiment is weak, the ex - factory prices follow the increase, and the order - receiving volume decreases. Around the delivery area, the ex - factory prices are firm, but the market atmosphere is average. Overall, the daily output has increased to around 20.4 million tons as maintenance devices return one after another. The fourth batch of quotas has been issued, increasing the influence of international prices on the domestic market. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China has basically ended, the grass - roots stocking is coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the inventory of urea can be used for more than half a month, resulting in low procurement sentiment for raw materials. The inventory of urea production enterprises has decreased by 46,000 tons to around 1.43 million tons, remaining at a high level. [4] 2. Core Data Changes Supply - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251113 - 1119), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 87.23%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.30%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 72.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21%. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate of urea was 84.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. [5] Demand - In the 47th week of 2025 (20251114 - 1120), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.20%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points from last week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 34.61%, a week - on - week increase of 4.29 percentage points. As of November 21, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,260 tons, a decrease of 40 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 3.08%. This week (20251114 - 20251121), the arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 250,000 tons, an increase of 144,000 tons from last week. As of November 19, 2025, the pre - order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days, a decrease of 0.59 days from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 7.65%. [5] Inventory - On November 19, 2025, the total inventory of urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, a decrease of 46,400 tons from last week. The sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 100,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from last week. [5] Valuation - In terms of profit, the price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was firm, the price of Yulin pulverized coal declined slightly, the spot price of urea rebounded, the fixed - bed production had a loss of 90 yuan/ton, the coal - water slurry production had a loss of 50 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production had a profit of 190 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, the basis was - 50 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 75 yuan/ton. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Urea prices increased slightly after a period of slow new - order follow - up. The成交 atmosphere improved, with the improvement in the Northeast's compound fertilizer production, the increase in production in Shandong and Hubei, and the rise in melamine production. The entry of off - season storage and the news of export quotas also contributed to the better market situation. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose due to new capacity release, and gas - based maintenance is expected to start in December. The expected improvement in year - end exports is likely to support the spot market, and continuous attention should be paid to the Northeast compound fertilizer start - up rate, raw material procurement rhythm, and national off - season storage rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 20, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1665 yuan/ton (+2). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1630 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1640 yuan/ton (+10), and in Jiangsu was 1620 yuan/ton (+10). The basis in Shandong was - 25 yuan/ton (+8), in Henan was - 35 yuan/ton (- 2), and in Jiangsu was - 45 yuan/ton (+8) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of November 20, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The urea production profit was 110 yuan/ton (+10) [1] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - The export profit was 1034 yuan/ton (- 9). In October, 120 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 400 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 60 million tons, which improved the year - end export expectation [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 34.61% (+4.29%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.20% (+4.72%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (- 0.59) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 20, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 143.72 million tons (- 4.64), and the port sample inventory was 10.00 million tons (+1.80) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea prices slightly increased after a slow new - order follow - up last week. Currently, agricultural and compound fertilizer autumn fertilizers are ending, and winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale. Melamine production has increased, with rigid demand for procurement. Gradual entry of off - season storage. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. The fourth - quarter gas - head maintenance is expected to start gradually in December. Affected by the export quota news, urea enterprises' shipments improved, factory inventories decreased, and port inventories slightly increased. The high domestic inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. The export quota news improves the year - end export expectation and is expected to support the spot market [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report provides data on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main - continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Output - The report shows information on urea weekly output and urea device maintenance loss volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19][22] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on production cost, spot production profit, coal - based and gas - based capacity utilization rates, and national capacity utilization rate, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [25][26][29] 4. Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - The report presents urea small - particle FOB prices in the Baltic Sea, large - particle CFR prices in Southeast Asia, small - and large - particle FOB and CFR prices in China, price differences, and export and on - disk export profits, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [31][33][37] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [48][49][50] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides information on upstream factory inventories, port inventories, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [52][53][56] Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On November 19, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,663 yuan/ton (+1). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,630 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,630 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1,610 yuan/ton (+10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 33 yuan/ton (+19), in Henan was - 33 yuan/ton (+19), and in Jiangsu was - 53 yuan/ton (+9). The urea production profit was 100 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 1,044 yuan/ton (- 20) [2] - **Supply Side**: As of November 19, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 84.08% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4372 million tons (- 46,400 tons), and the port sample inventory was 82,000 tons (+3,000 tons) [2] - **Demand Side**: As of November 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 30.32% (- 0.72%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 57.48% (+4.28%), and the number of advance order days of urea enterprises was 7.12 days (- 0.59) [2] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - **Inter - period**: Wait - and - see - **Inter - variety**: None [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The release of a new urea export quota of 600,000 tons on November 6th boosted the domestic urea market sentiment, with the futures price gapping up and the spot price following suit. However, the domestic urea market has been facing high supply, weak demand, high inventory, and low production profits. The export has been the only way to digest the surplus production. The increase in the quota mainly affects the short - term market trend, and the price reversal requires an improvement in domestic supply - demand [1]. - Currently, the domestic urea supply is back to a high level, with a daily output of about 200,000 tons. The demand is generally weak, with industrial demand remaining sluggish and agricultural demand ending. The overall supply - demand is still weak, the inventory is at a high level year - on - year, and the price is expected to bottom - out and fluctuate [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The daily output has recovered to around 200,000 tons, and high - level supply is one of the main reasons for the domestic surplus this year. Both coal - based and gas - based processes are in a loss state, and the rising coal price has further increased the cost of coal - based urea production. The cost support for the price will become more obvious at the current low price. Attention should be paid to enterprise production cuts and the scale of seasonal shutdown of gas - head devices in winter [6]. Demand - Industrial demand has been unable to bring incremental demand to urea due to the weak terminal market. The start - up of melamine is low, and the finished - product inventory of compound fertilizers is high. Although the start - up of compound fertilizers is gradually bottoming out and will increase seasonally, agricultural demand is in the off - season. The export policy is an important variable affecting the domestic urea market, as four batches of new export quotas this year have led to a significant year - on - year increase in exports [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Although the fourth urea export quota has boosted recent market sentiment, the 600,000 - ton volume is not large compared to the current urea supply, and the futures market has declined slightly in the past two days. However, the export quota is beneficial for alleviating domestic supply - demand pressure, and the fourth - quarter urea winter storage will gradually start nationwide, so the urea price is supported. In the 10.21 report, it was recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options, and it is noted that the 12 - contract options will expire today [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - UR01 futures price closed at 1640 yuan/ton on November 11, down 20 yuan/ton (-1.20%) from November 10; UR05 closed at 1717 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.87%); UR09 closed at 1738 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.97%). Among domestic spot prices, only Shandong's price decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.62%), while other regions remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream, the prices of anthracite coal in Henan, Shanxi, and Shandong remained unchanged. Downstream, the prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan increased by 30 yuan/ton (1.02% and 1.20% respectively), the price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.33%), and the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1660 yuan/ton, with a high of 1662 yuan/ton, a low of 1636 yuan/ton, a close of 1640 yuan/ton, a settlement price of 1648 yuan/ton, and a position of 254,037 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Stop losses for selling put options on the 12 - contract [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The sentiment in the domestic urea market has cooled, with supply being ample and demand showing a downward trend. Although the issuance of the fourth batch of export quotas will boost market sentiment in the short - term, the urea fundamentals remain loose in the medium to long - term. Attention should be paid to the downstream acceptance of price increases [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures fluctuated weakly, closing at 1660 (-8/-0.48%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: Factory prices rose, but trading was average. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized particles 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized particles 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized particles 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized particles 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1420 - 1490 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information On November 10, the daily urea production was 19.51 tons, 0.28 tons less than the previous working day and 1.08 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.41%, 1.89% higher than 81.52% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - **Supply**: Maintenance devices have gradually resumed operation, and the average daily output has increased to around 19.6 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The issuance of the fourth batch of quotas has made the impact of international prices on the domestic market more prominent. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China has basically ended, and the demand is weakening. The inventory of urea production enterprises has slightly increased to around 158 tons [5]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, domestic demand is limited, and the spot market sentiment is still sluggish. Although the issuance of the new quota will boost the market sentiment, the overall domestic demand will enter a "vacuum period" again after the autumn fertilizer season. In the medium to long - term, the urea fundamentals are still loose [5]. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Short positions are recommended [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term domestic urea market is stable with an upward bias due to new export quotas, but high supply in November may pressure prices. Export policy adjustments and rising coal prices support the urea price, while the overall trend is expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - The near - term trading logic suggests an inverse spread for the 1 - 5 month difference of urea futures due to the disappearance of export expectations for the 01 contract, though the 01 contract still has a premium because of autumn fertilizer expectations [7]. - In the long - term, the domestic urea daily production fluctuates slightly, and the domestic trade supply - demand contradiction persists. After the holiday, the enterprise inventory increases significantly, and new orders need to be replenished [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - New export quota of 600,000 tons is directly allocated to upstream factories, supporting short - term spot prices. In November, high daily production may pressure prices, but export policy adjustments and rising coal prices provide support [4]. - Near - term: The cheapest deliverable locations for urea futures are Henan and Shandong. The 1 - 5 month spread of 01 contract is in an inverse spread due to the disappearance of export expectations, but the 01 contract still has a premium [7]. - Long - term: Domestic urea daily production fluctuates between 195,000 - 201,000 tons around holidays and then drops to 195,000 tons. After - holiday enterprise inventory is around 1.4 million tons, an increase from before the holiday, and new orders need to be replenished [12]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Urea is expected to run weakly and volatile. The UR2601 contract is expected to trade between 1,550 - 1,750 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at prices above 1,750 yuan/ton and set up an inverse spread for the 1 - 5 month spread when it is above - 10 [14]. - **Basis, Month - spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - Basis strategy: Contracts 11, 12, and 01 have a weak unilateral trend, while contracts 02, 03, 04, and 05 are strong with peak - season demand expectations [15]. - Month - spread strategy: The upper pressure for the 01 contract is 1,710 - 1,720 yuan/ton, and the static support is 1,550 - 1,620 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices and set up an inverse spread for the 1 - 5 month spread [15]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: None [16]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: India announced a new round of urea import tender for 2.5 million tons on November 6, with a shipment deadline of January 15, 2026. The fourth quarter is the winter storage period for the fertilizer industry, and low prices may attract spontaneous reserves [17]. - **Negative Information**: The domestic urea daily production has been above 190,000 tons for a long time this year, and high inventory has pressured prices. Market confidence is lacking, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is low [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China's urea weekly production is expected to be around 1.34 million tons next week, an increase from this week. There are no planned shutdowns, and 5 - 6 enterprises' devices may resume production [20]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic urea daily production fluctuates around 195,000 - 201,000 tons around holidays and then drops to 195,000 tons. After - holiday enterprise inventory is around 1.4 million tons, an increase from before the holiday. Agricultural demand in Shandong and Henan is postponed due to rain, and compound fertilizer factories in some areas are shut down. Downstream procurement willingness is low [21]. - The main contradiction is weak domestic demand. It is expected that the increase in exports cannot offset the weakening of domestic demand, and the medium - term trend is under pressure. The 1 - 5 month spread of urea futures is in an inverse spread [22]. 3.2 Industry Hedging Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range for urea is 1,650 - 1,950 yuan/ton, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 62.1% [31]. - **Hedging Strategy Table**: - Inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short urea futures (UR2601) to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 1,800 - 1,950 yuan/ton. Buy put options (UR2601P1850) to prevent price drops and sell call options (UR2601C1950) to reduce costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 45 - 60 [31]. - Procurement management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, it is recommended to buy urea futures (UR2601) to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 1,650 - 1,750 yuan/ton. Sell put options (UR2601P1650) to collect premiums and lock in purchase prices if the price drops, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 20 - 25 [31]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The report provides seasonal charts of urea's fixed - bed production cost, water - coal slurry gasification production cost, and production profit [33]. 4.2 Upstream Capacity Utilization Tracking - The report provides seasonal charts of urea's daily production, weekly capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and natural - gas - based capacity utilization [43]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - The report provides seasonal charts of China's urea weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, and total inventory (port + inland) [47]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - The report provides seasonal charts of compound fertilizer's capacity utilization, inventory, production cost, and production profit, as well as charts of melamine's production, capacity utilization, market price, and production profit [53]. 4.5 Spot Production and Sales Tracking - The report provides seasonal charts of urea's average production and sales, as well as production and sales in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and East China [76].

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing slight price increases due to improved production rates and market sentiment, but overall demand remains cautious with a focus on export quota developments [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - Urea prices in Shandong have slightly increased, with small granular urea trading at 1540-1590 RMB/ton and large granular urea at 1740-1760 RMB/ton [2]. - The overall market sentiment has been positively influenced by recent export news, although the follow-up market response has been less than expected [2][4]. - The industry’s daily production rate is reported at 19.59 thousand tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.08 thousand tons from the previous day [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Urea production rates have improved as previously shut-down facilities are coming back online, leading to an accumulation of inventory [3][7]. - As of November 5, total inventory for Chinese urea enterprises reached 157.81 million tons, an increase of 2.38 million tons week-on-week, reflecting a 1.53% rise [3][8]. - Agricultural demand is tapering off as the wheat planting season concludes, while industrial demand is gradually increasing, particularly from compound fertilizer manufacturers [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the new export quota news could lead to a stronger market performance, but caution is advised as the actual impact remains to be seen [4][5]. - There is speculation that export quotas may be significantly relaxed next year, but the export window for this year is likely to remain closed [5][7]. - The overall expectation is for prices to remain volatile with a tendency towards weakness due to limited increases in future export expectations [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - Recently, urea prices have been falling continuously, and short positions in the futures market have been increasing daily. The main reason for the futures price falling more than the spot price is the elimination of export expectations, and urea prices in the future will be more determined by the domestic market [4]. - There may be some discrepancies in inventory expectations. Some enterprises with export quotas may accelerate cargo collection at ports in September, and ports will intensify inventory clearance before October 15 [6]. - Urea is still under high - supply pressure in the large - scale production cycle, but there is still demand. Considering its unique sales attributes and potential expectation discrepancies, urea may have short - term upward momentum [7]. Summary by Related Content Price and Basis - The basis (Henan's lowest deliverable product price) was around - 110 last Tuesday and is currently - 70. The futures price has fallen more than the spot price, mainly due to the extrusion of export expectations from the futures market [4]. Inventory - After entering the second quarter, urea enterprises have slow de - stocking due to high daily production and export quota occupation, and current enterprise inventory fluctuates around 1 million tons. Port inventory has increased due to the opening of exports [6]. - Since August, the increase in enterprise inventory has mainly occurred in Inner Mongolia. Considering the low export quota of Inner Mongolian factories and the single - peak season in a year, the Northeast market should be considered when analyzing future enterprise inventory trends. Northeast urea demand is gradually starting, which may drive the de - stocking of Inner Mongolian inventory [6]. Supply and Demand - Urea is still under high - supply pressure in the large - scale production cycle, and new production capacity will be put into operation in the fourth quarter, but the time is still early and there is still demand [7].