2025.12. 14 本文字数：2898，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 11月金融数据显示出企业票据冲量、居民需求疲软、对公信贷投放季节性回升的显著分化特征。 当月新增人民币贷款3900亿元，同比少增1900亿元，不及市场预期。结构上，企业部门虽发挥"压舱 石"作用，但主要依赖票据融资和短期贷款拉动，中长期贷款同比少增；居民部门信贷需求进一步走 弱，贷款减少2063亿元，同比多减4763亿元；与此同时，M1-M2负剪刀差扩大至-3.1%，非银存款 增长年内规律也被打破。 居民短贷、中长贷双弱 数据显示，11月新增人民币贷款3900亿元，同比少增1900亿元，显著低于市场预期。票据融资增加 3342亿元，同比增加2119亿元，环比减少1664亿元。票据冲量背后，是信贷需求的持续疲软以及实 体有效融资需求的不足。 尽管整体数据不及预期，但企业部门依然发挥信贷投放"压舱石"作用。11月企（事）业单位贷款增加 6100亿元，同比增加3600亿元，环比增加2600亿元。其中，企业短期贷款增加1000亿元，同比、环 比分别增加1100亿元、2900亿元；企业中长贷增加1700亿元，同比减少400亿元，环 ...

整体数据不及预期，企业部门依然发挥信贷投放"压舱石"作用，居民部门信贷需求在11月进一步走弱。 11月金融数据显示出企业票据冲量、居民需求疲软、对公信贷投放季节性回升的显著分化特征。 当月新增人民币贷款3900亿元，同比少增1900亿元，不及市场预期。结构上，企业部门虽发挥"压舱 石"作用，但主要依赖票据融资和短期贷款拉动，中长期贷款同比少增；居民部门信贷需求进一步走 弱，贷款减少2063亿元，同比多减4763亿元；与此同时，M1-M2负剪刀差扩大至-3.1%，非银存款增长 年内规律也被打破。 居民短贷、中长贷双弱 数据显示，11月新增人民币贷款3900亿元，同比少增1900亿元，显著低于市场预期。票据融资增加3342 亿元，同比增加2119亿元，环比减少1664亿元。票据冲量背后，是信贷需求的持续疲软以及实体有效融 资需求的不足。 尽管整体数据不及预期，但企业部门依然发挥信贷投放"压舱石"作用。11月企（事）业单位贷款增加 6100亿元，同比增加3600亿元，环比增加2600亿元。其中，企业短期贷款增加1000亿元，同比、环比分 别增加1100亿元、2900亿元；企业中长贷增加1700亿元，同比减少400亿 ...

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit - In June, the social financing scale increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 901.6 billion yuan, primarily supported by government bonds and short-term corporate loans [1] - Net financing of government bonds reached 1.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 507.2 billion yuan, indicating sustained fiscal policy efforts [1] - New RMB loans amounted to 2.36 trillion yuan, with corporate loans contributing significantly, particularly short-term loans which increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 490 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Household Credit and Demand - Household loans increased by 597.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 26.7 billion yuan, reflecting slow recovery in household credit [2] - Real estate sales remain under pressure, with new home transaction area in 30 cities down by 2.15% year-on-year and second-hand home prices down by 7.26% [2] - The weak growth in household medium and long-term loans is mainly due to early repayment of mortgages, with leverage willingness still needing policy stimulation [2] Group 3: Loan Rates and Financial Structure - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.3%, showing limited decline since the beginning of the year, while personal housing loan rates remained at 3.1% [3] - There was a year-on-year decrease of 371.6 billion yuan in bill financing, as banks actively compressed low-yield assets, leading to gradual optimization of the credit structure [3] Group 4: Money Supply and Liquidity - M1 growth rate significantly rebounded to 4.6%, driven by last year's low base and improved corporate liquidity [4] - New corporate demand deposits increased by 1.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 975.5 billion yuan, indicating enhanced operational cash flow efficiency [4] - The reduction of fiscal deposits by 820 billion yuan, along with the seasonal return of wealth management funds, contributed to the increase in deposits from residents and enterprises [4] Group 5: Savings and Consumption Trends - In the first half of the year, household deposits increased by 10.77 trillion yuan, with a savings-to-loan ratio of 9.21, reflecting conservative consumption and investment sentiment [5] - Despite a slight rebound in short-term loans due to consumption scenarios, new loans from the household sector remained at a historical low of 1.17 trillion yuan [5] - Policy measures are needed to further unleash consumption potential, with declining deposit rates potentially encouraging a shift from savings to consumption [5] Group 6: Policy Outlook and Market Expectations - The third quarter is expected to see a peak in government bond issuance, providing continued support for social financing growth [6] - The central bank may maintain reasonable liquidity through reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, focusing on "moderate easing" and structural tools [6] - Overall, June's financial data reflects a balance between active fiscal support and weak recovery in real demand, necessitating ongoing policy efforts to stabilize expectations, promote consumption, and optimize credit structure [6]