Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The long - term upward trend of industrial silicon remains intact despite a recent decline, and it is expected to continue rising with a narrowing amplitude [2]. - On the supply side, as the southwest region enters the dry season, electricity prices are expected to rise significantly, and some industrial silicon enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan have planned to cut production, leading to a contraction in supply next week [2]. - On the demand side, the organic silicon industry's demand for industrial silicon is mainly for rigid procurement, and the increase in organic silicon prices may lead to an increase in industrial silicon demand; the demand for polysilicon is stabilizing, but the profitability of polysilicon enterprises is compressed, reducing their acceptance of industrial silicon prices; the demand for aluminum alloy has limited pulling effect on industrial silicon [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 315 yuan; the position of the main contract was 273,978 lots, a decrease of 32,691 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 86,614 lots, a decrease of 13,858 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 43,297 lots, a decrease of 115 lots; the basis of the December - January industrial silicon contract closing price was 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9550 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 9800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 475 yuan/ton, an increase of 415 yuan; the spot price of DMC was 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 402,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 1939.85 tons, an increase of 602.27 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 70,232.72 tons, a decrease of 6409.29 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 21,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.5 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.95 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 72.18%, an increase of 2.92 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.776 million tons, an increase of 141,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5568.37 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On November 12th, Luxi Chemical (000830.SZ) led an organic silicon industry meeting, aiming to cut the industry's operating rate by 30% starting in early December and raise the price of organic silicon DMC to 13,500 yuan/ton within half a month [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,745 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the position of the main contract is 381,048 lots, down 43 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 70,457 lots, down 2,674 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 50,215 lots. The 8 - 9 month industrial silicon spread is - 10 yuan, down 15 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 455 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, up 0.72 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons, up 7,624.27 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.41%, up 1.17 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons, up 117,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - There are rumors that the restart plan of large factories has been cancelled. The operation of small and medium - sized enterprises in the northwest is stable, and in the southwest region, state - owned enterprises, self - supplied power enterprises, and organic silicon supply - guaranteeing enterprises are mainly operating. The US PPI annual rate in June was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024. The US economy is slowing down in the short - term, and it is expected that China may gradually follow with interest rate cuts. Short - term observation of Fed policies is needed [2]. Supply - side Analysis - The spot price of industrial silicon has risen significantly this period. The fertilizer subsidy policy in Yili, Northwest China, remains stable. Large - scale production enterprises have not reported any news of production cuts or shutdowns. The production cost in the southwest region has decreased. Enterprises in Baoshan are actively restarting production, but the restart scale in Nujiang and Dehong has not met expectations. Factories in Sichuan are mainly focusing on ensuring supply and relying on self - supplied power plants for production, and the overall operating rate has not increased significantly [2]. Demand - side Analysis - In the organic silicon sector, the spot price has increased, production profits have recovered, and enterprises are increasing production, which supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon sector, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, and downstream photovoltaic demand has declined significantly, reducing the demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy sector, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory has increased, prices are flat, and they are in a passive de - stocking phase, with little impetus for industrial silicon demand. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries is still slowing down [2].