上海期货价格走势：今日铸造铝合金主力月2603合约早盘开盘跳水后跟随沪铝期间反弹走强，截止当日 15：00收盘，铸造铝主力合约报22985元，涨165元，涨幅0.72%，全天成交量20035手增加265手；持仓 量21648手增加640手。 据长江有色金属网数据统计，1月9日长江现货数据显示，铸造铝合金锭(A356.2)报价25400-25800元/ 吨，均价报25600元/吨，持平；铸造铝合金锭(A380）报价24700-24900元/吨，均价报24800元/吨，持 平；铝合金ADC12报价23300-23500元/吨，均价报23400元/吨，持平；铸造铝合金锭(ZL102)报价24900- 25100元/吨，均价报25000元/吨，持平；铸造铝合金锭(ZLD104)报价24800-25000元/吨，均价报24900 元/吨，持平； ccmn铸造铝合金市场分析： 宏观层面，美国劳工部周四公布数据显示，截至1月3日当周，约20.8万名美国人首次申领失业救济，前 一周为20万人，仍处于过去一年低位区间。12月美国裁员人数减少，企业扩招计划增多；生产率（非农 雇员每小时产出）环比折年率增长4.9%，第二季度数据上 ...

1 国内铝土矿增量空间有限 2025年，国内氧化铝市场呈大幅波动走势，价格从年内历史高点一路下行至成本线附近。分阶段看， 2025年1月至4月上旬，氧化铝价格自高位快速回落。一方面，2024年四季度因天然气管道火灾被迫减产 的澳大利亚Yarwun、Queensland两家氧化铝厂陆续复产，海外氧化铝价格持续走弱；另一方面，国内新 增产能逐步释放，供应格局转向宽松，氧化铝价格持续承压。2025年4月中旬至7月下旬，受成本压力影 响，国内氧化铝企业检修意愿升温，开工率有所下滑。叠加几内亚当局撤销多家矿业公司勘探许可证、 Axis矿区暂停运营，引发市场对铝土矿供应的担忧，氧化铝价格自低位开启反弹。2025年7月末至12 月，随着企业利润修复，国内氧化铝运行产能回升至高位水平。同期，几内亚停产矿山陆续复产，铝土 矿价格走低，氧化铝企业生产成本下移，减产动能显著减弱。在高供应格局持续压制下，氧化铝价格再 度进入下行通道。 2025年，几内亚铝土矿出口虽受当地政策变动扰动，但仍贡献了全球铝土矿市场的最大增量。数据显 示，2025年前三季度，几内亚铝土矿产量为1.1516亿吨，同比增加2256万吨，增幅为24.36%；同期 ...

ccmn铸造铝合金市场分析： 上海期货价格走势：今日铸造铝合金主力月2603合约高开后震荡运行，盘中涨跌博弈，截止当日15：00 收盘，铸造铝主力合约报23035元，涨160元，涨幅0.70%，全天成交量19559手增加1289手；持仓量 20618手增加456手。 据长江有色金属网数据统计，1月6日长江现货数据显示，铸造铝合金锭(A356.2)报价25500-25900元/ 吨，均价报25700元/吨，涨200元；铸造铝合金锭(A380）报价24800-25000元/吨，均价报24900元/吨， 涨200元；铝合金ADC12报价23300-23500元/吨，均价报23400元/吨，涨200元；铸造铝合金锭(ZL102)报 价25000-25200元/吨，均价报25100元/吨，涨200元；铸造铝合金锭(ZLD104)报价24900-25100元/吨，均 价报25000元/吨，涨200元； 综合来看，铝合金需求将逐步进入淡季，合金厂按需生产致开工率回落，但成本端支撑稳固，叠加持仓 上升、资金流入，铸造铝将保持高位偏强格局。此外，铝合金价格走势与铝价紧密关联，铝价（AL） 回落时，更有利于铝合金与铝价价差（AD ...

上海期货价格走势：今日铸造铝合金主力月2603合约高开高走，截止当日15：00收盘，铸造铝主力合约 报22995元，涨515元，涨幅2.29%，全天成交量18270手增加6450手；持仓量20162手增加1863手。 据长江有色金属网数据统计，1月6日长江现货数据显示，铸造铝合金锭(A356.2)报价25300-25700元/ 吨，均价报25500元/吨，涨600元；铸造铝合金锭(A380）报价24600-24800元/吨，均价报24700元/吨， 涨400元；铝合金ADC12报价23100-23300元/吨，均价报23200元/吨，涨400元；铸造铝合金锭(ZL102)报 价24800-25000元/吨，均价报24900元/吨，涨600元；铸造铝合金锭(ZLD104)报价24700-24900元/吨，均 价报24800元/吨，涨600元； ccmn铸造铝合金市场分析： 宏观层面，美国发动对委内瑞拉发动军事行动并逮捕马杜罗夫妇，点燃市场避险情绪，并引发市场对全 球贸易畅通性和供应链稳定性的潜在担忧，推升有色金属等战略资源品溢价。受此影响，全球股市走 高、国际油价上扬，美元指数受此拖累下行，使以美元计价的铝等金 ...

基本面方面，ADC12现货价格坚挺，限制期价跌幅。废铝价格高企且供应偏紧，再生铝行业持续亏 损，存在一定成本支撑效应。需求端，合金厂开工率高位回落，同时考虑到2026年补贴政策退坡以及消 费需求前置，且汽车行业进入淡季，后期新能源汽车订单的持续性存疑，合金需求预计将走弱。现货市 场采购交投氛围一般，铝合金价格仍坚挺，持货商挺价惜售情绪未改，下游虽逢跌入场，但询价氛围清 淡。下游存在节前补货备库需求，不过市场整体成交以刚需为主，增量有限。 综合来看，需求进入淡季，合金厂以需定产，开工率回落，但成本端坚挺提供一定支撑。铝合金价格走 势跟随铝价，当AL回落时，更有利于AD - AL价差走强，值得关注。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 上海期货价格走势：今日铸造铝合金主力月2603合约弱势震荡，截止当日15：00收盘，铸造铝主力合约 报21475元，跌105元，跌幅0.49%，全天成交量9685手增加546手；持仓量15866手增加9810手。 据长江有色金属网数据统计，12月30日长江现货数据显示，铸造铝合金锭(A356.2)报价2350 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 C业硅数据日报 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0023460 从业资格号:F03123927 2025/12/30 陈宇森 数据来源: SMM. 百川盈孚,Wind,广期所,公开新闻整理 涨跌幅(%) 持仓量 合约 收盘价 421#-通氧553价差 - 不通氧553#硅(华东)-平均价 SI 2601 7604 8625 -1. 03 - 通氧553#硅(华东)-平均价 -- 421#硅(华东)-平均价 主要 供给端，生产重心继续向西北转移。需求端，多晶硅12月排产基本持稳，但终端需求疲软，后续排产或以减产为主。有机硅由于联合 减产挺价,12月排产下行。库存端,持续累库。整体看,工业硅供增需减,库存波动,价格或震荡运行。 观点 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求准确可靠，但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个 免 责 人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定 状况，据此投资，责任自负。本报告未经国贸期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以 ...

基本面方面，铸造铝行业库存和交易所仓单呈现窄幅波动态势。税务调整使得部分地区成本面临上调压 力，且废铝供应偏紧，进一步强化了成本支撑。需求端整体表现出较强韧性，再生铝企业原料备货需求 有所增加，现货市场交易情况稳定向好，铝合金价格高位上挺，支撑持货商挺价信心，下游存在节前补 货备库需求且存在追涨行为，市场交投活跃度显著提升，今日整体成交氛围较为热烈。 综合来看，宏观环境乐观，铸造铝供需基本面健康，短期内预计其价格将维持高位震荡格局。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 上海期货价格走势：今日铸造铝合金主力月2602合约震荡上扬，截止当日15：00收盘，铸造铝主力合约 报21390元，涨130元，涨幅0.61%，全天成交量12844手增加6338手；持仓量7203手减少6516手。 据长江有色金属网数据统计，12月26日长江现货数据显示，铸造铝合金锭(A356.2)报价23400-23800元/ 吨，均价报23600元/吨，涨200元；铸造铝合金锭(A380）报价23100-23300元/吨，均价报23200元/吨， 涨200元；铝合金A ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Overseas inventory is structurally imbalanced, and terminal demand is significantly suppressed. Yesterday, copper prices continued to rise, with short - term price fluctuations intensifying. The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory structural imbalances, and the Fed's actions support the price. SMM expects China's electrolytic copper production to rise in December, but high prices suppress demand, leading to inventory accumulation and weak downstream performance. The upward drive lies in further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations, while the downward drive is from weak demand. The short - term price is volatile, with the main focus on the 95,500 support level [1]. Aluminum - Alumina: The market has a supply - demand imbalance with stable supply growth and peaking demand, causing a negative feedback loop. Supply increases, leading to inventory accumulation and price decline. The price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with a reference range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to environmental policies and enterprise production cuts [3]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - level overseas easing expectations and domestic positive policies support the price, but the supply increases, demand enters the off - season, and inventory accumulates. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and inventory changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a state of oscillating and strengthening. The core contradiction is the game between strong cost support and weakening demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, pushing up costs, while high aluminum prices suppress downstream demand. The ADC12 price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to scrap - aluminum supply, environmental policies, and downstream orders [5]. Zinc - TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and terminal demand is weak, so zinc prices are oscillating weakly. Domestic zinc - ore production decreases in November, and the import window opens. Smelters cut production due to profit pressure, and refined - zinc production growth is limited. Downstream demand is generally weak at the end of the year, and social inventory is decreasing. The LME inventory increases, and the squeeze - out risk eases. The main support is at 22,850 - 22,950 [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, with increased imports in November and exports from Indonesia. The demand in South China shows some resilience, while that in East China is more restricted. The previous long positions should be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to macro - factors and supply - side recovery [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of short - term oscillation and repair. The market is trading around the expectation of tightened nickel - ore supply due to news from Indonesia. The domestic spot price falls, and the supply of refined nickel is tight. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support. However, the short - term reality is weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, restricting the upward price space. The main reference range is 123,000 - 130,000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is oscillating narrowly. The spot - market trading atmosphere is weak. The macro - environment is favorable, but the market has a strong expectation of tightened ore supply. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support, and the supply pressure eases slightly. However, the demand is in the off - season, and high inventory remains a problem. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust, with a main reference range of 12,500 - [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is in a state of wide - range oscillation. The recent news is abundant, and the fundamentals are in a state of strong supply and demand. The production is expected to increase in December, and the demand has some resilience, but the power - market orders decline in the off - season. The inventory decreases, and the tight - balance fundamentals support the price, but there is limited new driving force [16]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon market has stable spot prices and oscillating futures prices. The supply and demand are both decreasing steadily, and the expectation of production cuts is rising. The demand from polysilicon is expected to decline significantly. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a main range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production - cut intensity [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market has stable spot prices and a significant increase in futures prices. The exchange has introduced cooling measures. Upstream enterprises try to boost prices, but downstream profits are under pressure. The demand in the first quarter has no bright spots. The price is expected to remain high and oscillate, and attention should be paid to production cuts and price acceptance [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper is at 94,760 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread is 3,944 yuan/ton, up 11.29% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic - copper production was 110.31 million tons, up 1.05% month - on - month; imports were 27.11 million tons, down 3.90% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum is at 21,980 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The alumina prices in different regions are all down slightly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, down 4.44% month - on - month; domestic electrolytic - aluminum production was 363.66 million tons, down 2.82% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is at 21,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined - scrap spreads in different regions have different changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled - aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, up 5.74% month - on - month; that of primary - aluminum alloy ingots was 30.27 million tons, up 5.84% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot is at 23,080 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The import loss is - 2,669 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined - zinc production was 59.52 million tons, down 3.56% month - on - month; imports were 1.82 million tons, down 3.22% [9]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin is at 332,750 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The import loss is - 14,018.67 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin - ore imports were 11,632, up 33.49% month - on - month; SMM refined - tin production was 16,090, up 53.09% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is at 127,400 yuan/ton, down 2.15%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron price is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's refined - nickel production was 33,342, down 9.38% month - on - month; imports were 9,741, down 65.66% [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) is at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production was 178.70 million tons, down 0.72% month - on - month; Indonesia's was 42.35 million tons, up 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is at 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3.35%. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price is 1,440 US dollars/ton, up 0.42% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium - carbonate production was 95,350, up 3.35% month - on - month; demand was 133,451, up 5.11% [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: Huale Tongyang SI5530 industrial silicon is at 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 2601 - 2602 spread is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, national industrial - silicon production was 40.17 million tons, down 11.17% month - on - month; the national operating rate was 64.82%, down 4.84% [18]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: N - type re - feedstock average price is 52,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main - contract price is 60,760 yuan/ton, up 4.22% [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, polysilicon production was 11.46 million tons, down 14.48% month - on - month; imports were 0.11 million tons, down 27.05% [19].

上海期货价格走势：今日铸造铝合金主力月2602合约震荡走弱，截止当日15：00收盘，铸造铝主力合约 报21265元，跌35元，跌幅0.16%，全天成交量5739手增加1145手；持仓量16018手减少1166手。 基本面方面，废铝货源整体偏紧，税费政策在部分地区的影响有所显现，叠加再生铝企业原料备货需求 上升，废铝价格维持坚挺，持续为铸造铝提供强成本支撑。不过，行业库存和上期所仓单处于高位且窄 幅波动，在供应过剩的大环境下，行业利润依然处于较低水平。现货市场，持货商挺价情绪不改。今日 部分铝合金品种价格出现下跌，但下游企业入市采购的积极性有所提升，市场交投氛围尚可。 综合来看，近期有色金属市场主要受宏观因素驱动，铸造铝合金跟涨动力不足，与沪铝的价差或维持在 千元附近。不过，鉴于基本面状况良好，铸造铝盘面下跌幅度预计有限。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 据长江有色金属网数据统计，12月23日长江现货数据显示，铸造铝合金锭(A356.2)报价23100-23500元/ 吨，均价报23300元/吨，跌100元；铸造铝合金锭(A380）报 ...

综合来看，铸造铝价格表现较好主要得益于成本端废铝的支撑，预计后续将维持高位震荡走势。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 ccmn铸造铝合金市场分析： 宏观层面，本周适逢圣诞周且三季度GDP数据即将公布，市场交投情绪趋于谨慎。不过，全球股市走 高、油价上扬，推动风险情绪显著升温，改善了金属需求前景，铸造铝期货市场氛围偏暖，期货价格震 荡走强。 基本面方面，年底铸造铝供需两端均出现一定程度的减量，市场陷入僵持。成本端，铝合金价格持续高 位运行，而冶炼端因面临亏损压力，开工率难以提升，供应端产能释放受限。需求端表现反复，叠加交 割压力，对价格形成压制。但终端有汽车消费市场订单提供支撑，现货市场交投氛围有所好转。铝合金 价格坚挺，激发持货商捂货惜售情绪，下游部分企业存在追涨补货举动，市场买卖交投活跃度略有提 升，今日整体成交表现良好。 上海期货价格走势：今日铸造铝合金主力月2602合约偏强震荡，截止当日15：00收盘，铸造铝主力合约 报21290元，涨140元，涨幅0.66%，全天成交量4594手增加259手；持仓量17184手减少32手。 ...