投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 工业硅数据日报 «65 ITG国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0013700 从业资格号:F3023916 白素娜 研究助理 陈宇森 从业资格号:F03123927 2025/11/18 数据来源: SMM. 百川盈孚,Wind,广期所,公开新闻整理 | | 合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 持仓量 | | - 421#-通氧553价差 - 不通氧553#硅(华东)-平均价 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | SI2512 | 9095 | 0. 22 | 27515 | | 一 通氧553#硅(华东)-平均价 -- 421#硅(华东)-平均价 | | | | | SI 2601 | 9080 | 0. 11 | 251549 | 14000 - | | | 1000 | | | SI2602 | 9055 | 0.11 | 45536 | 12000 | | | | | 市场 | SI 2603 | 9045 | 0.06 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon supply will contract next week as Sichuan, Yunnan and other regions enter the dry season, with increased production cuts and some enterprises halting production due to rising electricity prices, despite expected restarts in the Northwest [2] - On the demand side, organic silicon maintains a rigid demand for industrial silicon but consumption growth is limited; polysilicon currently supports industrial silicon procurement but may reduce demand due to rising costs and potential production cuts; aluminum alloy has stable demand for industrial silicon but limited price - pulling ability [2] - Although industrial silicon showed little movement today, the volume and price of downstream organic silicon are rising, which is expected to drive industrial silicon up, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9,145 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the position of the main contract is 267,758 lots, up 5,622 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 64,574 lots, down 473 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 45,387 lots, down 549 lots; the basis between the December and January industrial silicon contracts is 10 yuan, up 10 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 355 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 2,410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1,939.85 tons, an increase of 602.27 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 70,232.72 tons, a decrease of 6,409.29 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.95 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 21,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.5 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.26%, an increase of 0.7%; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.776 million tons, an increase of 141,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5,568.37 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - China's cumulative installed capacity of operational power energy storage projects is 137.9 GW, accounting for 37.1% of the global market, with a year - on - year increase of 59.9%; the cumulative installed capacity of new - type energy storage is 78.3 GW, accounting for 47% of the global market, and lithium - ion batteries dominate, accounting for 97.1% of the cumulative installed capacity of new - type energy storage [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of industrial silicon will shrink next week as the dry - season production cuts in Southwest China are more significant, despite the复产 expectations in Northwest China [2] - The downstream demand for industrial silicon is diverse. Organic silicon maintains a rigid - demand state but has limited consumption upside due to the sluggish terminal market. The short - term weekly production of polysilicon is still high, but there are expectations of production cuts, which may reduce the demand for industrial silicon. The demand from the aluminum alloy industry is stable but has limited marginal impact on prices [2] - Industrial silicon follows the polysilicon trend and remains stable. It is expected to have a higher probability of oscillating upward in the future. It is recommended to go long on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9,195 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the main contract position is 262,136 hands, down 8,823 hands; the net position of the top 20 is - 64,101 hands, up 1,755 hands; the GZEE warehouse receipts are 45,936 hands, down 143 hands; the basis between the December and January industrial silicon contracts is 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 305 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average prices of silica, petroleum coke, clean coal, wood chips, and graphite electrodes (400mm) are 410 yuan/ton, 2,410 yuan/ton, 1,850 yuan/ton, 490 yuan/ton, and 12,250 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon output is 402,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 70,232.72 tons, an increase of 1,939.85 tons; the monthly export volume is 602.27 tons, a decrease of 6,409.29 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 21,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.95 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.5 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.26%, an increase of 0.7%; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1,776,000 tons, an increase of 141,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5,568.37 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On November 11, 2025, Hesheng Silicon Industry announced that Fuda Industrial plans to reduce its shareholding by no more than 27.0705 million shares (2.29% of the total share capital) in the next three months for its own capital needs [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The price of copper rebounded slightly yesterday. In the medium and long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the marginal changes in demand and overseas liquidity [1]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc market oscillated at a high level yesterday. The supply - side pressure may be limited, and the demand is not outstanding. The LME zinc price has an upper limit, while the Shanghai zinc may be stronger than LME zinc, with the main contract reference range of 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price oscillates downward. The market still faces inventory accumulation pressure in November, but the pressure is reduced compared with October. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon is stable, and the futures price oscillates downward. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. Pay attention to the support of the spot price, the establishment of platform companies, production control, and the increase in demand orders. The futures should focus on the support at 50,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. The market sentiment has improved, and long positions can be held. If the supply from Myanmar recovers well, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to be strong [7]. - **Aluminum (Alumina)**: The alumina market oscillated at a low level yesterday. The supply pressure is high, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum (Electrolytic Aluminum)**: The electrolytic aluminum market oscillated at a high level yesterday. The macro - drive is strong, but the fundamental support is weak. It is expected to fluctuate between event - driven and weak fundamentals, with the main contract range of 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel market oscillated narrowly yesterday. The market is mixed with long and short factors. It is expected to oscillate in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market continued to weaken yesterday. The supply pressure remains, the demand is not boosted, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, with the main contract range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market was strong yesterday. The short - term fundamentals provide support, but the upward movement is mainly driven by funds. The main contract LC2601 is expected to oscillate and adjust. Pay attention to the marginal changes in demand after the peak season and the progress of large - factory复产 [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The casting aluminum alloy market oscillated strongly yesterday. With cost support and a tight supply - demand balance, the ADC12 price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract range of 20,400 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement rhythm, and inventory reduction [16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various copper products increased slightly, with the SMM 1 electrolytic copper rising 0.27% to 86,765 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 0.97% to 3,367 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and in September, the import volume increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 0.57% to 62.97 million tons [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose 0.40% to 22,660 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to 4,958 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the refined zinc production increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons. The zinc ingot social inventory in seven regions decreased by 1.30% to 15.96 million tons [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon were stable. The basis of some products increased, such as the basis of SI4210 increasing by 32.35% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 8.36% to 7.02 million tons [4]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price decreased by 3.33% to 51,930 yuan/ton. The silicon wafer price decreased significantly [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In the week, the silicon wafer production decreased by 5.55% to 13.45 GW, and the polysilicon production decreased by 4.26% to 2.70 million tons [5]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 tin price rose 0.66% to 287,700 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 1.13% to 14,819.94 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In September, the domestic tin ore import decreased by 15.13% to 8,714 tons, and in October, the SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16,090 tons [7]. Aluminum (Alumina) - **Price and Spread**: The average price of alumina in Shandong increased by 0.36% to 2,795 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to 2,320 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the alumina production increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons [9]. Aluminum (Electrolytic Aluminum) - **Price and Spread**: The SMM A00 aluminum price rose 0.60% to 21,620 yuan/ton. The import loss increased slightly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons, and the import volume increased by 13.57% to 24.68 million tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 0.08% to 121,300 yuan/ton. The futures import loss increased by 1.86% to 1,859 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The Chinese refined nickel production increased by 0.84% to 35,900 tons, and the import volume increased by 124.36% to 38,164 tons [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless - steel coils decreased. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27% to 912 yuan/nickel point [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased slightly [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price rose 1.92% to 82,300 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 858.62% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% to 92,260 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 10.90% to 84,234 tons [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose 0.23% to 21,500 yuan/ton. The scrap - refined price difference of some products changed [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 1.82% to 5.58 million tons [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The price of copper rebounded slightly yesterday. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices. The main contract is expected to trade between 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton, and future attention should be paid to demand - side marginal changes and overseas liquidity [1]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc futures oscillated at a high level yesterday. The supply - side pressure may be limited in the future, and the demand side has no outstanding performance. The LME zinc has upward pressure, while the export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices. The main contract is expected to trade between 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon stabilized, while the futures price oscillated downward. In November, the market still faces inventory accumulation pressure, but it is less than that in October. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon stabilized, the component quotation increased, but the silicon wafer price dropped significantly, and the futures price oscillated downward. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the spot support strength, platform company establishment, production control, and demand - side order increase [5]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The market sentiment has improved, and long positions should be held. If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to run strongly [7]. Alumina - The alumina futures oscillated at a low level yesterday. The supply pressure is high, and the cost support is gradually shifting down. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [9]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The electrolytic aluminum futures continued to oscillate at a high level yesterday. The market shows a pattern of strong macro - drive and weak fundamental support. The price is expected to fluctuate between 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to LME warehouse receipt flow, domestic inventory changes, and overseas macro - trends [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel futures oscillated narrowly yesterday. The market is mixed with long and short factors. The price is expected to oscillate in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel futures continued to weaken yesterday. The policy and macro - drive are gradually weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures ran strongly yesterday. The short - term fundamentals provide support for the price, but the upward movement of the futures is mainly driven by funds. The futures may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the end - of - year resumption of large factories and downstream marginal changes [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market oscillated strongly yesterday. Supported by cost and with a tight supply - demand balance, the ADC12 price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory reduction [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 86,765 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The spot - futures basis and other price - related indicators showed different changes [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,660 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the previous day. The import profit and loss, month - to - month spread, etc. also changed [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 52.38% [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re - feeding material remained at 52,200 yuan/kg, and the main futures contract dropped 3.33% to 51,930 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price was 287,700 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 11.10% [7]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 21,620 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous day. The import profit and loss and month - to - month spread changed accordingly [9]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,300 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 2.68% [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12,750 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The spot - futures spread increased by 24.66% [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 82,300 yuan/ton, up 1.92% from the previous day. The basis decreased by 858.62% [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 21,500 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous day. The month - to - month spread and other indicators changed [16]. Fundamental Data Production and Import/Export - **Copper**: In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, the import volume was 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. - **Zinc**: In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, the import volume was 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In October, the national industrial silicon production was 45.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The export volume in October was 7.02 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.36% [4]. - **Polysilicon**: In October, the polysilicon production was 13.40 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. In September, the import volume was 0.13 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.46% [5]. - **Tin**: In September, the tin ore import was 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. In October, the SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09% [7]. - **Aluminum**: In October, the alumina production was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [9]. - **Nickel**: In October, the Chinese refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. The import volume was 38,164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 manufacturers) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. The import volume was 12.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.70% [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. The import volume in September was 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.30% [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 64.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [16]. Operating Rates - **Copper**: The electrolytic copper rod operating rate was 61.97%, up 1.54 percentage points from the previous week [1]. - **Zinc**: The galvanizing operating rate was 55.13%, down 2.41 percentage points from the previous week [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The national operating rate was 68.12%, up 6.18 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **Tin**: The SMM refined tin average operating rate in September was 43.60%, down 20.3 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum profile operating rate was 52.60%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous week [9]. - **Nickel**: There is no significant information about the operating rate in the nickel report. - **Stainless Steel**: There is no significant information about the operating rate in the stainless - steel report. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, the lithium carbonate operating rate was 56%, up 1.82 percentage points from the previous month [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The recycled aluminum alloy operating rate was 55.84%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous week [16]. Inventory - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory was 19.59 million tons, down 2.10% from the previous week; the SHFE inventory was 11.50 million tons, down 0.95% from the previous week [1]. - **Zinc**: The seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots was 15.96 million tons, down 1.30% from the previous week; the LME inventory remained unchanged at 3.5 million tons [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The Xinjiang inventory was 11.21 million tons, up 3.70% from the previous week; the social inventory was 55.20 million tons, down 1.08% from the previous week [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon inventory was 25.90 million tons, down 0.77% from the previous week; the silicon wafer inventory was 17.52 million tons, down 7.45% from the previous week [5]. - **Tin**: The SHEF inventory was 5,992 tons, up 1.23% from the previous week; the social inventory was 7,033 tons, up 5.22% from the previous week [7]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 62.70 million tons; the LME inventory was 54.5 million tons, down 0.37% from the previous day [9]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory was 37,187 tons, up 1.19% from the previous week; the social inventory was 49,133 tons, up 2.14% from the previous week [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 48.89 million tons, down 0.65% from the previous week; the SHFE warehouse receipt was 7.17 million tons, down 0.41% from the previous day [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 84,234 tons, down 10.90% from the previous month; the downstream inventory was 53,291 tons, down 13.50% from the previous month [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 5.58 million tons, up 1.82% from the previous week [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of industrial silicon is stable while demand is decreasing. During the dry season, the cost will rise slightly, and silicon prices may fluctuate. The supply side shows a slowdown in the resumption of production in the northwest region and successive production cuts in the southwest region. On the demand side, polysilicon will cut production during the dry season in November. In terms of inventory, the reduction of warehouse receipts drives the overall inventory decline [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: SI2511 closed at 8520 with a -1.73% change, SI2512 at 8920 (-2.25%), SI2601 at 8885 (-2.31%), SI2602 at 8865 (-2.53%), and SI2603 at 8875 (-2.37%) [2]. - **Open Interest**: SI2511 had an open interest of 2977, SI2512 had 70872, SI2601 had 242153, SI2602 had 37735, and SI2603 had 15858 [2]. Spot Market - **Regional Prices**: In the East China region, 553 (non - oxygenated) was priced at 9300, 553 (hydrogenated) at 9450, 421 at 9700, 441 at 9650, and 3303 at 10500. In Huangpu Port, 553 (oxygenated) was 9500 and 421 was 9950. In Tianjin Port, 553 (oxygenated) was 9350 and 421 was 9800. In Kunming, 553 (hydrogenated) was 9600, and in Sichuan, 421 was 9750. All prices had no change [2]. - **Related Product Prices**: DMC price was 11150, 107 glue was 11500, polysilicon (compact material, per kilogram) was 51, and the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21400 [2]. Price Spreads - **Futures Spreads**: The spread between si2511 - si2512 was -400 with a change of 40, and si2512 - si2601 was 35 with a change of 10 [2]. - **Spot Spreads**: The spread between 421 spot and 553 oxygenated spot was 250. The basis (East China 553 spot - main contract) was 565 with a change of 255 [2]. Warehouse and Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Information**: Various warehouses such as Zhongchu Wusong, Zhongchu Dachang, etc., had different capacities, and most had an ascension and rebate standard of 0. The total capacity was 27.55 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts decreased from 36997 to 36666, a decrease of 331 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, with the arrival of the dry season, the industrial silicon market further reduced production. The demand for polysilicon was highly uncertain, while the demand for silicone and aluminum alloy was relatively stable. Cost provided support for the price floor, but high inventory restricted the upward price movement. Today, industrial silicon bottomed out and rebounded but still closed lower. Overall, the bottom support strengthened, and it is expected to continue oscillating. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips and pay attention to operational risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,140 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the position of the main contract was 228,268 lots, down 297 lots; the net position of the top 20 was -56,668 lots, up 770 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 46,161 lots, down 1,092 lots; the closing price of the December contract for industrial silicon was -430 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts for industrial silicon was -430 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 310 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,800 yuan/ton, up 525 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2,110 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons; the weekly output of silicone DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 21,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.85 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.5 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC was 68.56%, down 1.49 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.776 million tons, up 141,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Hesheng Silicon Industry (603260.SH) released its Q3 2025 report, with operating income of 5.43 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 23.51%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 75.6675 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 84.12%. Although still showing negative year - on - year growth, the single - quarter profit index turned positive compared to the loss in the first half of the year. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. China will adjust its counter - measures accordingly, and both sides agreed to extend some tariff exclusion measures [2] 3.7 Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, as Sichuan and Yunnan transition from the wet season to the dry season in October, production costs for manufacturers increased, and some enterprises with exhausted raw materials stopped production. As November approached, the scale of production cuts in the dry season expanded further. In Xinjiang, with stable and low - cost power supply, some manufacturers actively increased production, with an increase in the number of open furnaces and continuous release of production capacity. On the demand side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in silicone, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy. For silicone, inventory was lower than the historical average, production profit was flat, and it provided certain rigid - demand procurement support for industrial silicon. For polysilicon, inventory reached 282,600 tons, higher than the historical average. Rising silicon wafer prices were beneficial for polysilicon demand, but production cuts in the dry season were expected to have a negative impact on industrial silicon demand. For aluminum alloy, the operating rate of enterprises remained stable, the demand for industrial silicon remained high, and the demand performance was relatively stable, but its marginal impact on the price of industrial silicon was limited [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints Copper - After the interest rate cut and tariff implementation, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next macro nodes are the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. The copper supply shortage supports the price, and downstream demand has strong resilience. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center, but short - term sharp increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the 86000 - 86500 support level [2]. Aluminum - In October, the alumina futures price was under pressure, and it is expected to remain weakly volatile in November. The electrolytic aluminum market was strong in October, and it is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern in November with limited upside potential. Although high aluminum prices have inhibited some consumption and exports, the overall macro environment is positive [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In October, the cast aluminum alloy futures followed the aluminum price and was strong. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the peak season but with a mediocre performance. It is expected that the ADC12 price will remain strongly volatile in November, with an operating range of 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is gradually shifting from the zinc ore end to the zinc ingot end. The smelting profit is compressed, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited. The demand is not outstanding, but the low overseas inventory may cause a short squeeze on LME zinc, supporting the price. The zinc price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term and may remain range - bound [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Due to Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut, the tin price may decline in the short - term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The future trend depends on the macro situation and the supply recovery in Myanmar [13]. Nickel - The nickel futures market fluctuates within a range. The production of refined nickel is high, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is volatile, with supply pressure and insufficient demand improvement. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of ferronickel is under pressure. The supply of 300 - series stainless steel remains high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue to adjust in the short - term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures were strong last week, but there was news of potential supply increases, which affected the market sentiment. The fundamentals are currently strong, with a slight decrease in production and an improvement in demand. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in November, with a reference range of 78000 - 87000 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 87570 yuan/ton, down 0.56% from the previous day. The electrolytic copper production in October was 109.16 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month [2]. Fundamental Data - The import volume of electrolytic copper in September was 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month. The inventory of various types showed different changes, such as SHFE inventory increasing by 10.83% week - on - week [2]. Aluminum Price and Spreads - SMM A00 aluminum price was 21280 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day. The alumina production in October was 778.53 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month [4]. Fundamental Data - The electrolytic aluminum production in October was 374.21 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month. The full - scale market inventory of alumina increased by 31.27 million tons to 437.55 million tons as of October 30 [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spreads - SMM Southwest ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in September was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month [5]. Fundamental Data - The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots in September was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased [5]. Zinc Price and Spreads - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22280 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day. The refined zinc production in October was 61.72 million tons, up 2.85% month - on - month [11]. Fundamental Data - The import volume of refined zinc in September was 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month. The LME inventory increased by 1.15% [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 284400 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day. The domestic tin ore import in September decreased by 15.13% month - on - month [13]. Fundamental Data - The SMM refined tin production in September was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month. The inventory of SHEF increased by 2.65% week - on - week [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121950 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day. The production of Chinese refined nickel increased by 1.26% month - on - month [14]. Supply and Inventory - The SHFE inventory increased by 1.87% week - on - week, and the social inventory decreased by 1.43% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 0.99% month - on - month [17]. Fundamental Data - The stainless steel import volume increased by 2.70% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 80220 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in October was 92260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month [20]. Fundamental Data - The lithium carbonate demand in September was 116801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.38% [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - After the implementation of interest rate cuts and tariff policies, the copper market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The supply shortage of copper mines strengthens the price bottom, and downstream demand shows strong resilience. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the support around 87,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum oxide market shows regional differentiation, with the north showing signs of bottoming and the south continuing to decline. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is strong, supported by macro factors and demand in some fields, and is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract ranging from 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market maintains a high - level oscillation. The cost support is prominent, and the supply shows a contraction trend. The demand shows a mild recovery, and the social inventory accumulates weekly. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - After the macro positive expectations are fulfilled, the zinc price oscillates. The supply is expected to increase limitedly due to compressed smelting profits, and the demand is stable. There is a risk of a short squeeze in LME, and the export window is intermittently open. The zinc price has short - term support but may continue to oscillate without a clear turning point in the supply - side logic [9]. Tin - The supply of tin mines remains tight, and the demand is weak. Powell's hawkish statement may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The subsequent trend depends on macro factors and the supply recovery in Myanmar [11]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillates. The production of refined nickel is at a high level, the mine price is firm, but the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is expected to decrease. The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the industry profit is shrinking. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market oscillates and weakens. The nickel ore price is firm, but the supply in the Philippines may decrease. The nickel - iron and chromium - iron prices are under pressure, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. The price is expected to weakly oscillate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong. The auction price of lithium mines provides support. The supply shows a slight decrease, and the demand is unexpectedly optimistic. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to remain strong in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 83,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 88,065 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 883 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,200 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 2,515 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 price is 21,300 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,250 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 4,757 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 284,000 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 15,249.89 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,200 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1,540 yuan/ton [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 12,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 80,000 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data Production - **Copper**: The electrolytic copper production in September was 1.121 million tons, down 4.31% from the previous month [1]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum oxide production in September was 7.6037 million tons, down 1.74% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, down 3.16% from the previous month [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in September was 661,000 tons, up 7.48% from the previous month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, up 4.43% from the previous month [5]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc production in September was 600,100 tons, down 4.17% from the previous month [9]. - **Tin**: The SMM refined tin production in September was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% from the previous month [11]. - **Nickel**: The production of refined nickel products in China was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% from the previous month [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 1.8217 million tons, up 0.38% from the previous month [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production of lithium carbonate in September was 87,260 tons, up 2.37% from the previous month [17]. Inventory - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory of copper is 182,600 tons, up 0.55% from the previous week; the SHFE inventory is 104,800 tons, down 4.94% from the previous week [1]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China is 619,000 tons, up 0.16% from the previous day; the LME inventory is 460,000 tons, down 0.70% from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 54,800 tons, up 0.18% from the previous week [5]. - **Zinc**: The seven - place social inventory of zinc ingots in China is 161,500 tons, down 0.37% from the previous week; the LME inventory is 35,000 tons, down 0.85% from the previous day [9]. - **Tin**: The SHEF inventory of tin is 5,766 tons, up 1.32% from the previous week; the social inventory is 6,828 tons, down 2.69% from the previous week [11]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory of nickel is 36,075 tons, up 4.81% from the previous week; the social inventory is 48,802 tons, up 2.29% from the previous week [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The social inventory of 300 - series (Wuxi + Foshan) is 492,200 tons, down 0.55% from the previous week; the SHFE warrant is 73,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate in September was 94,539 tons, up 0.38% from the previous month [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - After the implementation of interest rate cuts and tariff policies, the copper market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The shortage of copper ore supply strengthens the price bottom, but short - term rapid price increases may suppress demand. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom, and the main contract should focus on the support around 87,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. Macro factors such as Sino - US economic and trade consultations and domestic policies support market confidence, while the supply - demand structure shows that supply is restricted and demand has structural highlights. Alumina prices are expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton, and the market has shown signs of bottoming out [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market continues to oscillate at a high level. Cost support is prominent, supply is shrinking, demand is moderately recovering, and social inventory is accumulating. The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The supply is relatively loose, but the smelting profit is compressed, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited. The demand is generally stable, and the LME has the risk of a short squeeze, which supports the zinc price. The main contract reference range is 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Tin prices may decline in the short term due to the hawkish statement on interest rate cuts. The supply of tin ore is tight, but the demand is weak. If the supply in Myanmar recovers well, tin prices may weaken; otherwise, they will continue to run strongly [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to oscillate. Macro factors are stable, but the inventory is accumulating, and the medium - term supply is loose. The main contract reference range is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak and oscillate. Macro sentiment has improved, but downstream demand during the peak season is insufficient, and the supply side has pressure from production scheduling and social inventory. The main contract reference range is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong in the short term. The downstream demand is better than expected, and the industry is continuously destocking. The main contract reference range is 83,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 88,065 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 883 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread shows different changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%. The import volume was 33.43 million tons, an increase of 7 million tons compared with the previous month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% [1]. Aluminum and Alumina Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,200 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The import profit and loss is - 2,515 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread has different changes [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, a decrease of 3.16%. The import volume increased by 13.57%, and the export volume increased by 13.07% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,300 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The month - to - month spread shows different changes [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.48%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, an increase of 4.43%. The import volume of non - wrought aluminum alloy ingots increased by 15.77%, and the export volume decreased by 19.24% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,250 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The import profit and loss is - 4,757 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread has different changes [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%. The import volume decreased by 11.61%, and the export volume increased by 696.78% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 284,000 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The LME 0 - 3 premium is 10.02 US dollars/ton, down 74.95% [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the import of tin ore was 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 31.71%. The export volume increased by 6.59%, and the average operating rate decreased by 31.77% [11]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,200 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The import profit and loss is - 1,540 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread has different changes [13]. Supply and Inventory - The production of refined nickel products is 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26%. SHFE inventory is 36,075 tons, an increase of 4.81%. Social inventory is 48,802 tons, an increase of 2.29% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot - futures price difference is 385 yuan/ton, up 25.40% [15]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) is 182.17 million tons, an increase of 0.38%. The import volume increased by 2.70%, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 80,000 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The basis is - 1,740 yuan/ton, down 5.45% [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12.28%. The import volume decreased by 10.30%, and the export volume decreased by 59.12% [17].