Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side: As the southwest region enters the dry season, many furnaces are shut down, leading to a decline in the national production schedule in November [4]. - The demand side: The dry - season in the southwest region causes a decline in the polysilicon production schedule in November, while the silicone production schedule increases month - on - month in November, fluctuating around 200,000 tons per month [4]. - The inventory side: The visible inventory fluctuates, and the balance sheet shows a slight inventory build - up in November. Overall, both supply and demand of industrial silicon decrease, and inventory fluctuates. In the short term, the silicon price may operate in the range of 8,200 - 9,400 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Fluctuations**: SI2512 closed at 9,095 with a 0.22% increase, SI2601 at 9,080 with a 0.11% increase, SI2602 at 9,055 with a 0.11% increase, SI2603 at 9,045 with a 0.06% increase, and SI2604 at 9,040 with a 0.22% decrease [4]. - **Contract Positions**: SI2512 had a position of 27,515, SI2601 had 251,549, SI2602 had 45,536, SI2603 had 18,433, and SI2604 had 10,071 [4]. Spot Market - **Prices in Different Regions and Grades**: In the East China region, 553 (non - oxygen - blowing) was priced at 9,350, 553 (oxygen - blowing) at 9,500, 421 at 9,750, 441 at 9,700, and 3303 at 10,500. In Huangpu Port, 421 was 10,000 and 553 (oxygen - blowing) was 9,400. In Tianjin Port, 421 was 9,800. In Kunming, 553 (oxygen - blowing) was 9,600 and 421 was 10,000. In Sichuan, 421 was 9,800 [4]. - **Related Product Prices**: DMC price was 12,750 (up 500), 107 - rubber was 12,250, polysilicon (dense material per kg) was 51, and the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21,550 (down 100) [4]. Price Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: SI2512 - SI2601 spread was 15, SI2601 - SI2602 spread was 25 (up 10) [4]. - **Spot Spreads**: 421 spot - 553 oxygen - blowing spot spread was 250, and the basis (East China 553 spot - main contract) was 420 (down 60) [4]. Warehouse and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Warehouse Information**: There are multiple warehouses and sub - warehouses with different storage capacities (in ten thousand tons) and premium/discount standards. The total warehouse capacity was 27.55 tons [4]. - **Warehouse Receipt Changes**: The total number of warehouse receipts decreased from 36,414 to 35,475, a decrease of 939 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is in a situation of both supply and demand booming, with short - term oscillations showing a strong tendency. The core contradiction lies in the sentiment and the expected changes in fundamentals. Before the large - scale factory's actual resumption of production, the market is expected to be strong with oscillations, and it is advisable to participate by taking long positions on dips. After the actual resumption of production, short - term operations can be considered based on valuation [4]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon fundamentals are bearish, but the consensus of non - selling below cost provides strong support for the futures price. The downward decline of polysilicon futures is limited, and there will be continuous positive news disturbances. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the price range referring to (48000, 55000) [52]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Weekly Report Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the weekly output of DMC was 51,400 tons, a 0.39% increase; the weekly output of polysilicon was 29,200 tons, a 2.85% increase; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.6%, a 1 - percentage - point increase, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.9%, remaining flat. The weekly output of industrial silicon was 84,700 tons, a 1.50% increase. The number of open furnaces increased by 10. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 545,000 tons, a 0.37% decrease. It is expected that the demand for industrial silicon in August will increase to 385,000 tons, and the production will be about 370,000 tons, with inventory reduction in August [4]. - **Trading Logic**: The production of silicone and polysilicon has increased significantly recently, leading to a significant increase in the demand for industrial silicon. The cost of industrial silicon has increased due to the rise in the price of Ningxia refined coal and thermal coal. The core contradiction in the current industrial silicon market lies in the sentiment and the expected changes in fundamentals [4]. - **Strategies**: Before the large - scale factory's confirmed resumption of production, take long positions on dips. For options, there is no recommendation. For arbitrage, look for opportunities to conduct reverse arbitrage on the 11th and 12th contracts [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Market Review**: This week, the industrial silicon futures oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 8805 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot prices of industrial silicon showed mixed trends, with prices in Yunnan generally decreasing by 50 - 150 yuan/ton and prices in other industrial areas slightly increasing [8]. - **Downstream Demand**: The output of DMC and polysilicon increased slightly, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy increased slightly. The short - term operating rate of silicone is gradually increasing, and the output of polysilicon is also slightly increasing [11][14]. - **Industrial Silicon Production**: This week, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 84,700 tons, a 1.50% increase. The number of open furnaces increased by 10. If the large - scale factory in Xinjiang increases the number of open furnaces as expected at the end of the month, the production of industrial silicon in September will increase to 380,000 - 390,000 tons [20]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly, while the factory inventory increased slightly. The social inventory was 545,000 tons, a 0.37% decrease [21]. - **Related Product Prices**: The spot prices of industrial silicon showed mixed trends, and the price of silicon powder weakened. The prices of DMC and its terminal products also weakened [29][33]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of Ningxia refined coal increased slightly [45]. Polysilicon Weekly Report Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply and Demand**: In August, polysilicon enterprises plan to increase production significantly, with an expected output of 125,000 tons. The silicon wafer production schedule in August is basically the same as that in July, resulting in an oversupply of 15,000 - 20,000 tons. The factory inventory of polysilicon is 267,000 tons, and it is expected to continue the inventory - building trend in August [52]. - **Price Analysis**: The spot price of polysilicon has upward pressure in the short term, but it is difficult to decline significantly before the consensus of non - selling below cost is broken. The downward decline of polysilicon futures is limited, and there will be continuous positive news disturbances. The short - term price range is expected to be (48000, 55000) [52]. - **Strategies**: It is recommended to buy on dips, with the price range referring to (48000, 55000). For arbitrage, conduct positive arbitrage on the 2511 and 2512 contracts, with the target range referring to (- 1500, - 1000) [53]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Situation - **Polysilicon Price**: This week, the spot quotes of polysilicon manufacturers remained stable. The transaction prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon increased slightly [69]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery, and Component Prices**: The prices of silicon wafers and batteries showed mixed trends, and the prices of components showed both increases and decreases. The prices of some silicon wafers remained stable, while some decreased slightly. The battery prices showed a downward trend in some cases but may increase in the future. The component prices in distributed projects increased slightly in some cases, while those in centralized projects decreased slightly [73][74]. - **Component Fundamentals**: Overseas demand has decreased, and domestic component demand is weak in the short term. The domestic component inventory is 34.5GW, showing a slight increase. The production schedule of component enterprises has increased slightly to about 45GW [82]. - **Battery Fundamentals**: The overseas demand for small - sized batteries has improved, but manufacturers are cautious about production scheduling. The expected production schedule of photovoltaic batteries in August is about 50GW [88]. - **Silicon Wafer Fundamentals**: The operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises has changed little, and the weekly output has increased to 12.01GW. The silicon wafer inventory remains stable at around 20GW, and the expected output in August is 52GW, basically the same as that in July [92]. - **Polysilicon Fundamentals**: The weekly output of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the factory inventory has decreased to 267,800 tons. It is expected that the output in August will increase to 125,000 - 130,000 tons, and may further increase to 135,000 - 140,000 tons in September [97].