1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is in a situation of both supply and demand booming, with short - term oscillations showing a strong tendency. The core contradiction lies in the sentiment and the expected changes in fundamentals. Before the large - scale factory's actual resumption of production, the market is expected to be strong with oscillations, and it is advisable to participate by taking long positions on dips. After the actual resumption of production, short - term operations can be considered based on valuation [4]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon fundamentals are bearish, but the consensus of non - selling below cost provides strong support for the futures price. The downward decline of polysilicon futures is limited, and there will be continuous positive news disturbances. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the price range referring to (48000, 55000) [52]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Weekly Report Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the weekly output of DMC was 51,400 tons, a 0.39% increase; the weekly output of polysilicon was 29,200 tons, a 2.85% increase; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.6%, a 1 - percentage - point increase, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.9%, remaining flat. The weekly output of industrial silicon was 84,700 tons, a 1.50% increase. The number of open furnaces increased by 10. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 545,000 tons, a 0.37% decrease. It is expected that the demand for industrial silicon in August will increase to 385,000 tons, and the production will be about 370,000 tons, with inventory reduction in August [4]. - **Trading Logic**: The production of silicone and polysilicon has increased significantly recently, leading to a significant increase in the demand for industrial silicon. The cost of industrial silicon has increased due to the rise in the price of Ningxia refined coal and thermal coal. The core contradiction in the current industrial silicon market lies in the sentiment and the expected changes in fundamentals [4]. - **Strategies**: Before the large - scale factory's confirmed resumption of production, take long positions on dips. For options, there is no recommendation. For arbitrage, look for opportunities to conduct reverse arbitrage on the 11th and 12th contracts [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Market Review**: This week, the industrial silicon futures oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 8805 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot prices of industrial silicon showed mixed trends, with prices in Yunnan generally decreasing by 50 - 150 yuan/ton and prices in other industrial areas slightly increasing [8]. - **Downstream Demand**: The output of DMC and polysilicon increased slightly, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy increased slightly. The short - term operating rate of silicone is gradually increasing, and the output of polysilicon is also slightly increasing [11][14]. - **Industrial Silicon Production**: This week, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 84,700 tons, a 1.50% increase. The number of open furnaces increased by 10. If the large - scale factory in Xinjiang increases the number of open furnaces as expected at the end of the month, the production of industrial silicon in September will increase to 380,000 - 390,000 tons [20]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly, while the factory inventory increased slightly. The social inventory was 545,000 tons, a 0.37% decrease [21]. - **Related Product Prices**: The spot prices of industrial silicon showed mixed trends, and the price of silicon powder weakened. The prices of DMC and its terminal products also weakened [29][33]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of Ningxia refined coal increased slightly [45]. Polysilicon Weekly Report Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply and Demand**: In August, polysilicon enterprises plan to increase production significantly, with an expected output of 125,000 tons. The silicon wafer production schedule in August is basically the same as that in July, resulting in an oversupply of 15,000 - 20,000 tons. The factory inventory of polysilicon is 267,000 tons, and it is expected to continue the inventory - building trend in August [52]. - **Price Analysis**: The spot price of polysilicon has upward pressure in the short term, but it is difficult to decline significantly before the consensus of non - selling below cost is broken. The downward decline of polysilicon futures is limited, and there will be continuous positive news disturbances. The short - term price range is expected to be (48000, 55000) [52]. - **Strategies**: It is recommended to buy on dips, with the price range referring to (48000, 55000). For arbitrage, conduct positive arbitrage on the 2511 and 2512 contracts, with the target range referring to (- 1500, - 1000) [53]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Situation - **Polysilicon Price**: This week, the spot quotes of polysilicon manufacturers remained stable. The transaction prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon increased slightly [69]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery, and Component Prices**: The prices of silicon wafers and batteries showed mixed trends, and the prices of components showed both increases and decreases. The prices of some silicon wafers remained stable, while some decreased slightly. The battery prices showed a downward trend in some cases but may increase in the future. The component prices in distributed projects increased slightly in some cases, while those in centralized projects decreased slightly [73][74]. - **Component Fundamentals**: Overseas demand has decreased, and domestic component demand is weak in the short term. The domestic component inventory is 34.5GW, showing a slight increase. The production schedule of component enterprises has increased slightly to about 45GW [82]. - **Battery Fundamentals**: The overseas demand for small - sized batteries has improved, but manufacturers are cautious about production scheduling. The expected production schedule of photovoltaic batteries in August is about 50GW [88]. - **Silicon Wafer Fundamentals**: The operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises has changed little, and the weekly output has increased to 12.01GW. The silicon wafer inventory remains stable at around 20GW, and the expected output in August is 52GW, basically the same as that in July [92]. - **Polysilicon Fundamentals**: The weekly output of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the factory inventory has decreased to 267,800 tons. It is expected that the output in August will increase to 125,000 - 130,000 tons, and may further increase to 135,000 - 140,000 tons in September [97].