Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a short-term high-level fluctuation due to increased production in Xinjiang and strong coal prices providing cost support, despite overall inventory levels being high [3]. Supply - In Xinjiang, the weekly industrial silicon production increased by 0.15 million tons to 33.6 thousand tons, with the operating rate rising by 3.1% to 69.36% [2]. - In Yunnan, production slightly increased by 50 tons to 7,565 tons, while Sichuan's production remained stable at 2,135 tons [2]. Demand - The operating rates for recycled and primary aluminum alloys remained stable week-on-week, with a slight decrease in aluminum alloy spot prices [2]. - The weekly production of organic silicon DMC saw a minor increase, while spot prices remained stable; however, the production of polysilicon decreased by 200 tons to 31,000 tons, still at a high level [2]. Inventory - Social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.4 million tons to 543 thousand tons, remaining at a high level compared to the same period last year [2]. - Downstream industrial silicon inventory was stable at 221.5 thousand tons, and registered warehouse receipts totaled 49,874 hands, also stable week-on-week [2]. Price and Profit - As of September 19, the price in East China was 9,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a basis of -1,705 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of silicon coal in Xinjiang increased by 200 yuan/ton to 1,500 yuan/ton, leading to a decrease in industrial silicon production profits week-on-week [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For polysilicon, the long - term price upward trend is certain, recommended to buy on dips in the medium - long term; short - term is volatile, and there may be a deep correction in futures prices. For industrial silicon, the short - term price may correct, but the decline is limited, and it is recommended to participate in long positions after a sufficient correction [4][6] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Polysilicon**: In September, silicon wafer production is expected to increase by 6GW to 58GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 116,000 tons. The polysilicon production is expected to remain around 130,000 tons. The total inventory in the polysilicon industry is close to 400,000 tons, and the downstream inventory is about 180,000 - 200,000 tons. Long - term price is likely to rise, short - term is volatile. Operation strategies include buying on dips for far - month contracts, and conducting reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts [4][5] - **Industrial silicon**: This week, DMC weekly production increased by 0.62% to 48,900 tons, polysilicon weekly production decreased by 0.60% to 31,200 tons, primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 57.6%, and recycled aluminum alloy operating rate remained flat at 55.5%. Industrial silicon weekly production increased by 2.75% to 95,500 tons. Social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 539,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 3,100 tons to 176,700 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 221,600 tons. The short - term price may correct, and it is recommended to avoid short - term long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in long positions after a sufficient correction, and conduct reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts [6][7] Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market Performance**: This week, industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 8,745 yuan/ton. Spot prices generally rose by 100 yuan/ton [10] - **Downstream Demand**: DMC production increased, polysilicon production slightly decreased, and aluminum alloy operating rate increased. DMC weekly production was 48,900 tons, polysilicon weekly production was 31,200 tons, primary aluminum alloy operating rate was 57.6%, and recycled aluminum alloy operating rate was 55.5% [13] - **Production**: This week, industrial silicon weekly production was 95,500 tons, a 2.75% increase. The number of furnaces in Xinjiang increased by 7, and it is expected that industrial silicon production will increase slightly in the future [25] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 539,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 3,100 tons to 176,700 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 221,600 tons [26] - **Product Prices**: Industrial silicon spot prices strengthened, organic silicon - related product prices were stable, organic silicon intermediate operating rate increased slightly, and aluminum alloy operating rate increased slightly. Xinjiang refined coal prices and charcoal prices rose [31][35][41][45][48] Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price**: This week, polysilicon spot prices decreased. N - type re - feedstock price was 49.1 - 54 yuan/kg, N - type dense material price was 48.1 - 52 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon price was 48 - 49 yuan/kg. The lower limit of rod - shaped silicon price decreased by 1,000 yuan/ton compared with last week, and granular silicon price remained stable [54][61] - **Silicon Wafer and Battery**: Silicon wafer and battery prices strengthened. Leading enterprises raised silicon wafer quotes, and battery prices increased accordingly. It is expected that battery quotes may continue to rise [62][68] - **Component**: Some component prices increased. Domestic photovoltaic component prices increased, and the cost - side supported the price increase. Some projects have accepted higher prices [69] - **Fundamental Data**: Component domestic orders are average, inventory is moderately high, and the production schedule in September is slightly increased to 45GW. Battery export demand is good, inventory is moderately high, and the production schedule is increased to 57GW. Silicon wafer enterprise operating rate increased, weekly production reached 13.88GW, inventory is 16.55GW, and the production in September is expected to be 58GW. Polysilicon production decreased slightly this week, and factory inventory increased to 234,200 tons. The production in September is expected to be flat compared with August, around 130,000 tons [77][83][88][93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，价格重心下移、偏弱运行 [1][2] -铝锭预计价格短期高位震荡，短期内消费仅边际改善，近期区间运行为主 [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Building Materials (Finished Products) -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省部分短流程钢厂停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [1][2] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [2] -成材供需双弱、市场情绪悲观、冬储低迷，价格震荡下行创近期新低 [2] 3.2. Aluminum -宏观上美联储主席讲话强化9月降息预期，国内政策托底但传导至消费需时间 [1] -上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业整体开工率环比升0.8个百分点至59.5%，部分领域开工率有升有降 [2] -预计8月下旬铝线缆、铝板带延续回升，“金九银十”拉动铝箔、铝型材需求 [2] -8月25日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存61.60万吨，较上周四增2.0万吨，较上周一涨0.9万吨，库存回升采购情绪转弱 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is in a situation of both supply and demand booming, with short - term oscillations showing a strong tendency. The core contradiction lies in the sentiment and the expected changes in fundamentals. Before the large - scale factory's actual resumption of production, the market is expected to be strong with oscillations, and it is advisable to participate by taking long positions on dips. After the actual resumption of production, short - term operations can be considered based on valuation [4]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon fundamentals are bearish, but the consensus of non - selling below cost provides strong support for the futures price. The downward decline of polysilicon futures is limited, and there will be continuous positive news disturbances. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the price range referring to (48000, 55000) [52]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Weekly Report Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the weekly output of DMC was 51,400 tons, a 0.39% increase; the weekly output of polysilicon was 29,200 tons, a 2.85% increase; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.6%, a 1 - percentage - point increase, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.9%, remaining flat. The weekly output of industrial silicon was 84,700 tons, a 1.50% increase. The number of open furnaces increased by 10. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 545,000 tons, a 0.37% decrease. It is expected that the demand for industrial silicon in August will increase to 385,000 tons, and the production will be about 370,000 tons, with inventory reduction in August [4]. - **Trading Logic**: The production of silicone and polysilicon has increased significantly recently, leading to a significant increase in the demand for industrial silicon. The cost of industrial silicon has increased due to the rise in the price of Ningxia refined coal and thermal coal. The core contradiction in the current industrial silicon market lies in the sentiment and the expected changes in fundamentals [4]. - **Strategies**: Before the large - scale factory's confirmed resumption of production, take long positions on dips. For options, there is no recommendation. For arbitrage, look for opportunities to conduct reverse arbitrage on the 11th and 12th contracts [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Market Review**: This week, the industrial silicon futures oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 8805 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot prices of industrial silicon showed mixed trends, with prices in Yunnan generally decreasing by 50 - 150 yuan/ton and prices in other industrial areas slightly increasing [8]. - **Downstream Demand**: The output of DMC and polysilicon increased slightly, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy increased slightly. The short - term operating rate of silicone is gradually increasing, and the output of polysilicon is also slightly increasing [11][14]. - **Industrial Silicon Production**: This week, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 84,700 tons, a 1.50% increase. The number of open furnaces increased by 10. If the large - scale factory in Xinjiang increases the number of open furnaces as expected at the end of the month, the production of industrial silicon in September will increase to 380,000 - 390,000 tons [20]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly, while the factory inventory increased slightly. The social inventory was 545,000 tons, a 0.37% decrease [21]. - **Related Product Prices**: The spot prices of industrial silicon showed mixed trends, and the price of silicon powder weakened. The prices of DMC and its terminal products also weakened [29][33]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of Ningxia refined coal increased slightly [45]. Polysilicon Weekly Report Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply and Demand**: In August, polysilicon enterprises plan to increase production significantly, with an expected output of 125,000 tons. The silicon wafer production schedule in August is basically the same as that in July, resulting in an oversupply of 15,000 - 20,000 tons. The factory inventory of polysilicon is 267,000 tons, and it is expected to continue the inventory - building trend in August [52]. - **Price Analysis**: The spot price of polysilicon has upward pressure in the short term, but it is difficult to decline significantly before the consensus of non - selling below cost is broken. The downward decline of polysilicon futures is limited, and there will be continuous positive news disturbances. The short - term price range is expected to be (48000, 55000) [52]. - **Strategies**: It is recommended to buy on dips, with the price range referring to (48000, 55000). For arbitrage, conduct positive arbitrage on the 2511 and 2512 contracts, with the target range referring to (- 1500, - 1000) [53]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Situation - **Polysilicon Price**: This week, the spot quotes of polysilicon manufacturers remained stable. The transaction prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon increased slightly [69]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery, and Component Prices**: The prices of silicon wafers and batteries showed mixed trends, and the prices of components showed both increases and decreases. The prices of some silicon wafers remained stable, while some decreased slightly. The battery prices showed a downward trend in some cases but may increase in the future. The component prices in distributed projects increased slightly in some cases, while those in centralized projects decreased slightly [73][74]. - **Component Fundamentals**: Overseas demand has decreased, and domestic component demand is weak in the short term. The domestic component inventory is 34.5GW, showing a slight increase. The production schedule of component enterprises has increased slightly to about 45GW [82]. - **Battery Fundamentals**: The overseas demand for small - sized batteries has improved, but manufacturers are cautious about production scheduling. The expected production schedule of photovoltaic batteries in August is about 50GW [88]. - **Silicon Wafer Fundamentals**: The operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises has changed little, and the weekly output has increased to 12.01GW. The silicon wafer inventory remains stable at around 20GW, and the expected output in August is 52GW, basically the same as that in July [92]. - **Polysilicon Fundamentals**: The weekly output of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the factory inventory has decreased to 267,800 tons. It is expected that the output in August will increase to 125,000 - 130,000 tons, and may further increase to 135,000 - 140,000 tons in September [97].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term trend of electrolytic aluminum is a large - range oscillation. New orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level oscillation market. The future week's fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract is expected to be between 20300 - 20800 yuan/ton, and short - term trading is recommended. Spot enterprises can consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventories at low prices [5][8]. - Domestically, supportive policies continue to be implemented, but the electrolytic aluminum production is approaching the bottleneck with limited incremental output this year. Overseas, there is high macro - uncertainty. The global primary aluminum production growth rate in 2025 is expected to be only 1.9%. The export of aluminum products in the second half of the year has great uncertainties [5][9]. - Affected by the off - season, aluminum processing enterprises generally have weak new orders, and the operating rate is under pressure. It is expected that the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing will continue to decline slightly next week [10][24][25]. - The aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. The price of the aluminum rod market next week is expected to oscillate between 20000 - 20800 yuan/ton [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The mid - term trend presents a large - range oscillation. Domestic supportive policies continue to be implemented, production is approaching the bottleneck with limited incremental output this year, but overseas macro - uncertainty is high. New orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level oscillation market [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the future week was expected to be between 20300 - 20900 yuan/ton [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the future week is expected to be between 20300 - 20800 yuan/ton, and short - term trading is recommended. Spot enterprises can consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventories at low prices [8]. Overall Viewpoint - **Aluminum Bauxite Market**: In June, China's aluminum bauxite production decreased by 3.2% month - on - month and increased by 4.1% year - on - year. Recently, domestic production has declined due to inspections and is expected to recover after the inspections end. In July, the arrival of imported aluminum bauxite in China is expected to remain high, but the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to gradually emerge [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of July 3, China's alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons, the operating capacity was 88.63 million tons, and the weekly national operating rate was 79.97%, a decrease of 0.31% from last week. In the second half of the year, both domestic and overseas supply and demand will be in an oversupply situation, but the degree of oversupply has narrowed compared with the first quarter [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of the end of June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.82 million tons, and the production in June increased by 1.57% year - on - year. The resumption of production in Yunnan, Sichuan and other places is nearing completion, and new production capacity is difficult to release due to environmental protection policies and energy consumption dual - control. Overseas production is limited by high energy costs, and the overall capacity utilization rate is high. The global primary aluminum production growth rate in 2025 is expected to be only 1.9% [9]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1350 yuan/ton. The export of aluminum products in the second half of the year has great uncertainties. It may maintain a certain resilience or even perform better than expected, but it may also face significant downward pressure [9]. - **Demand**: The national profile operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% this week. Affected by the off - season, aluminum processing enterprises generally have weak new orders and the operating rate is under pressure [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased by about 3% compared with the previous week and decreased by about 39% compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate next week. The inventory of aluminum rods increased by about 9% compared with last week and was about 9% higher than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased slightly in the past two weeks [10][14][15]. - **Profit**: Currently, the average cash cost of China's alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 500 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17400 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3300 yuan/ton, which is at a relatively high level [11]. - **Market Expectation**: Domestically, favorable policies continue to be strengthened, and the direction of promoting consumption remains unchanged. Overseas, the macro - situation is mixed with risks. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate at a high level in the short term, and the price of the aluminum rod market next week will oscillate between 20000 - 20800 yuan/ton [11]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of domestic aluminum ore remain stable, and the spot trading in the imported ore market is light. The price of动力煤is expected to remain strong in the short term. The spot price of alumina has increased slightly, and the price of the aluminum rod market next week is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3050 yuan/ton [12]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported aluminum bauxite has decreased slightly. The alumina inventory has remained relatively stable. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas is expected to continue to accumulate, and the inventory of aluminum rods has increased significantly. The LME aluminum inventory has continued to accumulate [14][15][16]. Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 500 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17400 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3300 yuan/ton [18]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week. Affected by factors such as high aluminum prices, insufficient profits, and weak downstream demand, it is expected that the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing will continue to decline slightly next week [24][25]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern, but the market has low expectations for the upward space of the aluminum price in the second half of the year [29]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1260 yuan/ton, which is lower than last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [35][36]. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of the LME aluminum variety has continued to rise slightly in the past 8 weeks. The short - selling camp has reduced positions in the past month, and the long - buying camp has increased positions in the latest period. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [37].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing fluctuations due to potential tariff reductions on imports from Canada, leading to a significant drop in U.S. spot aluminum premiums by over 7% [1]. Group 1: Market Data - According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), global primary aluminum production is projected to reach 6.0912 million tons and consumption at 5.8649 million tons by April 2025, resulting in a surplus of 226,300 tons [1]. - From January to April 2025, global primary aluminum production totaled 24.2523 million tons, while consumption was 23.2412 million tons, indicating a surplus of 1.0111 million tons [1]. - China's imports of aluminum ore and concentrates in May 2025 reached 17.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, with total imports from January to May at 85.18 million tons, up 33.1% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures notes that while aluminum inventories are at historical lows, supporting prices, domestic demand is entering a slow season with reduced orders, leading to short-term price fluctuations with medium-term downside risks [2]. - Hualian Futures highlights that recent improvements in the supply of alumina have kept prices weak, while the cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline. Despite stable supply, the downstream aluminum processing sector is experiencing a pronounced off-season, with both domestic and export orders declining [2]. - The overall supply pressure remains manageable due to high smelting operating rates, and low inventories suggest a continued strong performance in the near term. The recommendation is to maintain a rolling long position with a reference support level of 20,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum [2].