积极财政政策拉动基建投资，工程机械中期需求持续复苏有保障 2025年12月10日-11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议指出，2026年要继续实施更加积极的财政 政策，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收 优惠、财政补贴政策。会议还指出要推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资规模，优化实施"两 重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用，有效激发民间投资活 力。积极的财政政策有望对明年的基建投资起到拉动作用，进而带动下游设备需求。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 2025年11月国内挖掘机内销持续增长，非挖品类景气度显著复苏 2025年11月我国挖掘机（含出口）销量20027台 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - Domestic demand for excavators continues to grow, with November 2025 sales reaching 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. Domestic sales accounted for 9,842 units, up 9.1% year-on-year. For the first 11 months of 2025, total excavator sales were 212,162 units, reflecting a 16.7% increase, with domestic sales at 108,187 units, up 18.6% [3][4]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in non-excavator machinery categories, with loader sales in November 2025 increasing by 29.4%, motor grader sales up 24.7%, and truck crane sales rising by 25.8% [3][4]. - The ongoing replacement cycle in the machinery sector is expected to drive sales growth, with an estimated compound annual growth rate of around 30% for replacement demand in the coming years [4]. - Positive fiscal policies are anticipated to stimulate infrastructure investment, ensuring sustained mid-term demand for machinery [5]. - Export performance remains strong, with excavator exports in November 2025 reaching 10,185 units, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, and total export value for the first 11 months of 2025 at $53.76 billion, up 12.4% [6]. - The electric loader segment shows remarkable growth, with sales in November 2025 reaching 2,935 units, a 192.0% increase year-on-year, and an electricization rate of 25.7% [7]. - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is expected to further boost machinery demand, with projected equipment needs estimated between 120 billion to 180 billion RMB [9]. Summary by Sections Domestic Sales Performance - November 2025 excavator sales reached 20,027 units, with domestic sales at 9,842 units, marking a 9.1% increase year-on-year [3][14]. - Loader sales in November increased by 32.1%, with domestic sales up 29.4% [14]. Export Performance - Excavator exports in November 2025 totaled 10,185 units, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase [6][14]. - The total export value for machinery in November was $5.23 billion, a 16.6% increase [6]. Future Growth Drivers - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing fiscal policies to support infrastructure investment, which is expected to drive machinery demand [5]. - The electricization trend in machinery is highlighted, with significant growth in electric loader sales and an increasing electricization rate [7]. Key Companies Recommended - The report recommends several leading manufacturers, including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Shantui, and China Longgong, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic [10].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic excavator sales in China continue to grow, indicating a recovery in the internal demand cycle, with significant increases in various types of construction machinery sales, particularly in the excavator segment [4][5][6]. Group 1: Excavator Sales and Market Trends - In September 2025, the total excavator sales (including exports) reached 19,858 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, with domestic sales at 9,249 units, also up by 21.5% [4]. - From January to September 2025, excavator sales totaled 174,039 units, marking an 18.1% year-on-year growth, with domestic sales at 89,877 units, up 21.5% [4]. - The sales of non-excavator construction machinery showed a notable recovery, with loader sales up 25.6%, grader sales up 6.5%, truck crane sales up 40.7%, crawler crane sales up 66.7%, and truck-mounted crane sales up 29.8% in September 2025 [4]. Group 2: Export Performance - In September 2025, excavator exports reached 10,609 units, a 29.0% year-on-year increase, while from January to September 2025, exports totaled 84,162 units, up 14.6% [5]. - The export value of construction machinery in September 2025 was $5.27 billion, reflecting a 29.6% year-on-year growth, with a total export value of $43.86 billion from January to September 2025, up 13.3% [5]. - The construction machinery export market is influenced by geopolitical factors, with opportunities arising from increased infrastructure and mining machinery demand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, alongside challenges such as U.S.-China tariff uncertainties [5]. Group 3: Electrification Trends - In September 2025, electric loader sales reached 2,586 units, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 176.0%, with an electrification rate of 24.6%, up 13.0 percentage points [6]. - From January to September 2025, electric loader sales totaled 21,407 units, a 157.2% year-on-year increase, with an electrification rate of 22.8%, up 13.6 percentage points [6][7]. - The government’s push for green transformation and energy-saving initiatives is expected to accelerate the electrification process in the construction machinery industry, enhancing revenue and profit for manufacturers [6][7]. Group 4: Infrastructure Projects Impact - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is anticipated to boost demand for construction machinery significantly [8]. - The project is expected to require construction machinery worth between 120 billion to 180 billion yuan, with a focus on new energy and unmanned equipment due to environmental considerations [8].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic sales of construction machinery in September 2025 continued to grow, with significant recovery in non-excavator categories, and strong export performance, indicating a positive outlook for the industry driven by equipment upgrades and internationalization [1][2][4]. Group 1: Domestic Sales Performance - In September 2025, excavator sales (including exports) reached 19,858 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, with domestic sales at 9,249 units, up 21.5% [1]. - From January to September 2025, excavator sales (including exports) totaled 174,039 units, reflecting an 18.1% year-on-year growth, with domestic sales at 89,877 units, also up 21.5% [1]. - Non-excavator categories showed notable recovery, with loader sales up 25.6%, grader sales up 6.5%, truck crane sales up 40.7%, crawler crane sales up 66.7%, and truck-mounted crane sales up 29.8% in September 2025 [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The ongoing replacement cycle in the construction machinery sector is expected to support future excavator sales, with a projected compound growth rate of around 30% in replacement demand over the next few years [2]. - The export of used construction machinery to developing countries has reduced domestic ownership levels, further supporting new machine sales [2]. Group 3: Government Support and Infrastructure Investment - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds, increasing infrastructure investment, which is expected to boost demand for construction machinery [3]. - The government aims to enhance urban infrastructure, including underground engineering and municipal construction, which will sustain demand for construction machinery [3]. Group 4: Export Performance - In September 2025, excavator exports reached 10,609 units, a year-on-year increase of 29.0%, with total exports from January to September at 84,162 units, up 14.6% [4]. - The export value of construction machinery in September 2025 was $5.27 billion, reflecting a 29.6% year-on-year growth, with total export value from January to September at $43.86 billion, up 13.3% [4]. Group 5: Electrification Trends - In September 2025, electric loader sales surged to 2,586 units, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 176.0%, with an electrification rate of 24.6%, up 13.0 percentage points [5]. - From January to September 2025, electric loader sales totaled 21,407 units, up 157.2%, with an electrification rate of 22.8%, an increase of 13.6 percentage points [5][6]. Group 6: Major Projects Impact - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with an estimated investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly boost demand for construction machinery, with equipment demand projected to reach 120 to 180 billion yuan [7]. - The project will require various types of construction machinery, including large excavators and concrete machinery, further driving industry growth [7]. Group 7: Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Shantui, and China Longgong, along with component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic [8]. - Companies related to the Yarlung Tsangpo project, such as China Railway Engineering Corporation and others, are also suggested for attention [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry [1] Core Views - Domestic excavator sales continued to grow in September 2025, with a total of 19,858 units sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.4%. Domestic sales reached 9,249 units, up 21.5% year-on-year [3][4] - The report highlights a significant recovery in non-excavator machinery categories, with loader sales increasing by 30.5% year-on-year in September 2025 [3][4] - The government is expected to support infrastructure investment through the issuance of long-term special bonds and local government bonds, which will drive demand for construction machinery [5] - The report notes that the electric loader sales surged by 176.0% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating a strong trend towards electrification in the machinery sector [7][8] - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is anticipated to further boost demand for construction machinery, with potential equipment needs estimated between 120 billion to 180 billion RMB [9][10] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September 2025, excavator sales reached 19,858 units, with domestic sales at 9,249 units, both showing significant year-on-year growth [3][14] - Non-excavator machinery categories also showed strong performance, with loaders up 30.5% and truck cranes up 40.7% in domestic sales [3][14] Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in domestic demand for construction machinery, driven by equipment replacement cycles and government infrastructure initiatives [4][5] - The electric machinery segment is gaining traction, with electric loader sales increasing significantly, reflecting a shift towards greener technologies [7][8] Export Opportunities - Excavator exports in September 2025 totaled 10,609 units, marking a 29.0% increase year-on-year, with total export value reaching 5.27 billion USD [6][14] - The report identifies opportunities in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East for machinery exports, despite challenges such as U.S.-China tariff uncertainties [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several leading machinery manufacturers, including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion, as well as component suppliers like Hengli Hydraulic, indicating a positive outlook for these companies [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, has issued a plan for the mechanical industry aimed at maintaining stable growth from 2025 to 2026, targeting an average annual revenue growth rate of approximately 3.5% and aiming for revenue to exceed 10 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The mechanical industry is expected to maintain a stable and positive operational trend from 2025 to 2026, with a focus on enhancing the resilience and safety of key industrial chains and supply chains [1] - Wanlian Securities reports that excavator and loader sales continue to grow, with domestic demand expected to accelerate due to policy-driven equipment upgrades [1] - The competitiveness of domestic engineering machinery manufacturers in overseas markets is improving, supported by the cost-performance advantages of Chinese products [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - According to Everbright Securities, the domestic sales of engineering machinery are performing well despite being traditionally considered a low season, with significant recovery in non-excavator categories and strong export performance [1] - The ongoing policy support from the Two Sessions is expected to ensure sustained recovery in mid-term demand for the engineering machinery industry [1] - The internationalization and electrification of the engineering machinery sector are progressing, which is likely to benefit leading companies in terms of both volume and profit [1] - The commencement of hydropower projects is anticipated to further boost demand for engineering machinery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery industry in China has experienced significant growth in sales across multiple product categories from January to August this year, with a notable increase in excavator, loader, and forklift sales [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The sales of excavators reached 154,181 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.2% [1] - Various types of loaders sold 83,209 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [1] - Forklift sales totaled 976,026 units, also reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.9% [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - According to Everbright Securities, the domestic sales of engineering machinery in August showed resilience during the traditional off-season, with a significant recovery in non-excavator categories [1] - Export sales have performed well, and the ongoing replacement cycle in the engineering machinery sector is expected to continue driving sales growth [1] - The upcoming Two Sessions policy is anticipated to provide substantial support for the engineering machinery industry, ensuring sustained demand recovery in the medium term [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - The internationalization and electrification processes within the engineering machinery sector are progressing, which may lead to simultaneous increases in volume and profit for leading companies [1] - The commencement of hydropower projects is expected to further boost demand for engineering machinery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic excavator market in August 2025 showed strong performance despite being a traditional off-season, indicating a recovery in domestic demand and a positive outlook for the engineering machinery industry [4][5]. Group 1: Excavator Sales Performance - In August 2025, excavator sales (including exports) reached 16,523 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with domestic sales at 7,685 units, up 14.8% [4]. - From January to August 2025, total excavator sales (including exports) were 154,181 units, reflecting a 17.2% year-on-year growth, while domestic sales were 80,628 units, increasing by 21.5% [4]. Group 2: Non-Excavator Machinery Recovery - Non-excavator machinery categories showed significant recovery in August 2025, with loader domestic sales up 18.3%, grader sales up 16.1%, truck crane sales up 28.2%, crawler crane sales up 51.7%, and truck-mounted crane sales up 24.2% [4][5]. Group 3: Government Support and Infrastructure Investment - The 2025 government work report proposed issuing 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, to support infrastructure projects and stimulate demand for engineering machinery [6]. - The report emphasized the continuation of urban infrastructure investment and the promotion of new urbanization, which will sustain demand for engineering machinery, particularly in underground, municipal, and water conservancy projects [7]. Group 4: Export Growth and Market Opportunities - In August 2025, excavator exports reached 8,838 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, with total exports from January to August at 73,553 units, up 12.8% [8]. - The engineering machinery export market is expected to grow, driven by increased demand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, despite challenges such as U.S.-China tariff uncertainties [8]. Group 5: Electrification Trends - Electric loader sales in August 2025 surged to 2,477 units, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 159.4%, with an electrification rate of 26.2%, up 14.8 percentage points [9]. - From January to August 2025, electric loader sales totaled 18,821 units, reflecting a 154.8% year-on-year growth, with an electrification rate of 22.6%, up 13.6 percentage points [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - In August 2025, domestic excavator sales showed resilience during the traditional off-season, with a significant recovery in non-excavator categories [3][4]. - The report highlights a robust growth trend in domestic demand for construction machinery, supported by government policies and infrastructure investments [5][10]. - The electric loader segment is experiencing substantial growth, with sales increasing by 159.4% year-on-year in August 2025, indicating a shift towards electrification in the industry [7][8]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In August 2025, excavator sales (including exports) reached 16,523 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with domestic sales at 7,685 units, up 14.8% [3][14]. - Non-excavator machinery categories also showed strong performance, with loaders up 18.3%, graders up 16.1%, and truck cranes up 28.2% [3][14]. Government Support and Policy - The government plans to issue long-term special bonds totaling 1.3 trillion yuan, which is expected to boost infrastructure investment and, consequently, machinery demand [5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing implementation of new urbanization strategies and infrastructure projects, which will sustain demand for construction machinery [5]. Export Trends - Excavator exports in August 2025 reached 8,838 units, marking an 11.1% increase year-on-year, with a total of 73,553 units exported from January to August, up 12.8% [6][14]. - The report notes opportunities in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East for machinery exports, despite challenges such as U.S.-China tariff uncertainties [6]. Electrification and Innovation - The electric loader sales reached 2,477 units in August 2025, with an electrification rate of 26.2%, reflecting a significant increase in the adoption of electric machinery [7][35]. - The report suggests that the trend towards green and electric machinery will enhance revenue and profit margins for leading manufacturers [8]. Major Projects Impact - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with an estimated investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly boost machinery demand, potentially reaching 120-180 billion yuan in equipment needs [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several leading manufacturers, including SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and XCMG, as well as component suppliers like Hengli Hydraulic, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for these companies [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The domestic excavator sales in August 2025 showed resilience during the traditional off-season, with significant recovery in non-excavator categories [3][4]. - The report highlights a strong growth trend in the sales of various types of construction machinery, with notable increases in loader sales by 18.3%, grader sales by 16.1%, and truck crane sales by 28.2% in August 2025 [3][4]. - The government’s fiscal policies, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and increased local government bonds, are expected to support infrastructure investment and, consequently, machinery demand [5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing internationalization and electrification trends in the machinery industry, with electric loader sales increasing by 159.4% in August 2025 [7][8]. - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is projected to significantly boost machinery demand, with equipment needs estimated between 120 billion to 180 billion RMB [9]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In August 2025, excavator sales reached 16,523 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with domestic sales at 7,685 units, up 14.8% [14]. - Non-excavator machinery categories also showed strong performance, with loaders and truck cranes experiencing significant sales growth [3][14]. Government Support - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion RMB in long-term special bonds and increase local government bonds to 4.4 trillion RMB, aimed at enhancing infrastructure investment [5]. - Continued investment in urban infrastructure and new-type urbanization strategies is expected to sustain machinery demand [5]. Export Trends - Excavator exports in August 2025 totaled 8,838 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.1% [6]. - The report notes opportunities and challenges in the export market, particularly in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East [6]. Electrification and Innovation - The report highlights a significant increase in electric loader sales, with a 159.4% year-on-year growth in August 2025, indicating a shift towards electrification in the industry [7][8]. - The electrification trend is expected to enhance revenue and profit margins for leading manufacturers [8]. Future Demand Drivers - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is anticipated to create substantial demand for construction machinery, with a projected equipment investment of 120 billion to 180 billion RMB [9].