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Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese construction machinery industry is experiencing significant growth, with excavator sales reaching 17,138 units in July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25.2% [1] - Domestic sales accounted for 7,306 units, reflecting a growth of 17.2%, while exports reached 9,832 units, marking a substantial increase of 31.9% [1] - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special bonds, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, to support infrastructure investment and stimulate demand for construction machinery [1] Group 2 - Zhejiang Securities suggests that the Chinese construction machinery industry is transitioning from import substitution to global supply, recommending a focus on industry leaders [2] - Everbright Securities highlights strong performance in both domestic and export sales in July, indicating a positive outlook for the industry driven by ongoing demand and policy support [2] - The report emphasizes that the internationalization and electrification of the construction machinery sector will likely benefit leading companies, with projects like the Yajiang and Xinjiang railways expected to further boost demand [2] Group 3 - Relevant companies in the Hong Kong stock market include Zoomlion Heavy Industry (000157), SANY International (00631), China Longgong (03339), and Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery (00564) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic excavator sales in July 2025 showed strong performance, indicating a positive trend in the engineering machinery sector driven by equipment replacement and government support for infrastructure projects [4][5][6]. Group 1: Domestic Excavator Sales - In July 2025, total excavator sales (including exports) reached 17,138 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, with domestic sales at 7,306 units, up 17.2% [4]. - From January to July 2025, total excavator sales amounted to 137,658 units, reflecting a 17.8% year-on-year growth, while domestic sales were 72,943 units, increasing by 22.3% [4]. - The ongoing replacement cycle of engineering machinery, with a typical lifespan of 8-10 years, is expected to drive a compound growth rate of around 30% in replacement demand for excavators in the coming years [4]. Group 2: Government Policy Support - The 2025 government work report proposed issuing 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, to support key projects and infrastructure investments [5][6]. - The report emphasized the continuation of urban infrastructure investments, particularly in areas such as urban renewal, flood control systems, and digital infrastructure, which will sustain demand for engineering machinery [6]. Group 3: Export Performance - In July 2025, excavator exports reached 9,832 units, marking a 31.9% year-on-year increase, with total exports from January to July at 64,715 units, up 13.0% [7]. - The engineering machinery export sector is expected to benefit from increased demand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, despite facing challenges such as U.S.-China tariff uncertainties [7]. Group 4: Electric Machinery Trends - In July 2025, electric loader sales surged to 2,391 units, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 81.5%, with an electricization rate of 26.6%, up 10.8 percentage points [8]. - From January to July 2025, electric loader sales totaled 16,344 units, reflecting a 154.1% year-on-year growth, with an electricization rate of 22.2%, an increase of 13.4 percentage points [8]. - The government’s push for green transformation and energy efficiency is expected to accelerate the electrification of engineering machinery, enhancing revenue and profit for manufacturers [8]. Group 5: Major Projects Impact - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is anticipated to significantly boost demand for engineering machinery [9]. - The project is expected to require around 120 to 180 billion yuan worth of machinery, with a focus on large excavators, tunnel boring machines, and concrete machinery due to its scale and environmental considerations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights the strong performance of domestic sales and exports in the construction machinery sector, driven by ongoing upgrades and replacements, supportive government policies, and increasing internationalization and electrification of the industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: Domestic Sales Performance - In July 2025, domestic excavator sales reached 7,306 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, while total excavator sales (including exports) were 17,138 units, up 25.2% [1]. - From January to July 2025, total excavator sales amounted to 137,658 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.8%, with domestic sales at 72,943 units, increasing by 22.3% [1]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - The continuous upgrade and replacement cycle in construction machinery is expected to support sales, with a projected compound growth rate of around 30% for replacement demand in the coming years [2]. - The export of used construction machinery to developing countries has reduced the domestic inventory, further supporting new machine sales [2]. Group 3: Government Policy Support - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds in 2025, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, to boost infrastructure investment [3]. - The focus on new urbanization and infrastructure projects, including urban renewal and flood control systems, is expected to sustain demand for construction machinery [3]. Group 4: Export Performance - In July 2025, excavator exports reached 9,832 units, a year-on-year increase of 31.9%, with total exports from January to July at 64,715 units, up 13.0% [4]. - The construction machinery sector faces both opportunities and challenges in international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, while also dealing with uncertainties related to US-China tariffs [4]. Group 5: Electrification Trends - In July 2025, electric loader sales surged to 2,391 units, marking an 81.5% year-on-year increase, with an electrification rate of 26.6%, up 10.8 percentage points [5]. - The government emphasizes green transformation and energy-saving initiatives, positioning electrification as a key development direction for the construction machinery industry [5]. Group 6: Major Projects Impact - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with an estimated investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly boost demand for construction machinery [6][7]. - The project is anticipated to require substantial machinery investments, potentially reaching 120 to 180 billion yuan, with a focus on large excavators and other specialized equipment [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The domestic excavator sales in July 2025 showed strong performance, with total sales (including exports) reaching 17,138 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%. Domestic sales accounted for 7,306 units, up 17.2% [3][11]. - The report highlights the ongoing demand for machinery driven by the replacement cycle, estimating a compound growth of around 30% in replacement demand for the coming years [3]. - Government policies from the Two Sessions are expected to support sustained recovery in machinery demand, with significant investments planned in infrastructure projects [4]. - The launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is anticipated to further boost machinery demand, with equipment needs estimated between 120 billion to 180 billion RMB [7]. - The report notes a significant increase in electric loader sales, with July 2025 sales reaching 2,391 units, a year-on-year growth of 81.5%, indicating a shift towards electrification in the industry [6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In July 2025, excavator sales reached 17,138 units, with domestic sales at 7,306 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.2% and 17.2% respectively [3][11]. - The first seven months of 2025 saw total excavator sales of 137,658 units, up 17.8%, with domestic sales at 72,943 units, increasing by 22.3% [3][11]. Government Support - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion RMB in long-term special bonds, increasing infrastructure investment and supporting machinery demand [4]. - The focus on new urbanization and infrastructure development is expected to sustain machinery demand, particularly in underground and municipal construction [4]. Export Trends - Excavator exports in July 2025 reached 9,832 units, a year-on-year increase of 31.9%, with total exports for the first seven months at 64,715 units, up 13.0% [5][11]. - The report identifies opportunities in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East for machinery exports, despite challenges such as U.S.-China tariff uncertainties [5]. Electrification and Innovation - The electric loader sales in July 2025 reached 2,391 units, marking an 81.5% increase, with an electrification rate of 26.6%, up 10.8 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The report emphasizes that the shift towards green and electric machinery is a key development direction for the industry [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several leading machinery manufacturers, including SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and XCMG, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for these companies [8].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The sales of various excavators reached 18,804 units in June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, with domestic sales of 8,136 units (up 6.2%) and exports of 10,668 units (up 19.3%) [1] - In the first half of 2025, a total of 120,520 excavators were sold, marking a year-on-year growth of 16.8%, with domestic sales of 65,637 units (up 22.9%) and exports of 54,883 units (up 10.2%) [1] - The domestic excavator sales in June showed a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, rebounding by 7.7 percentage points compared to previous values, driven by accelerated second-hand exports and a low base from the previous year [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The construction machinery industry is expected to maintain stable growth in excavator sales, with domestic earth-moving equipment projected to achieve double-digit growth for the year [2] - The demand for excavators is shifting towards recovery, particularly in the mining sector and major water conservancy projects, while the demand for small excavators is slowing down [2] - The government plans to issue long-term special bonds and increase local government special bonds to stimulate infrastructure investment, which is expected to boost downstream equipment demand [5][6] Group 3: Company Performance - Zoomlion (000157) anticipates that domestic sales will enter a growth trajectory, expanding its business from domestic markets to global markets across engineering, agricultural, and mining machinery [3] - Sany International (00631) reported a revenue of 5.876 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, with net profit rising by 23.2% [7] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business, particularly in emerging regions, while also enhancing its product offerings in earth-moving, agricultural, and mining machinery [7]

Group 1: Steel Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions" in February 2025, which aims to evaluate steel enterprises under two categories: "standard enterprises" and "leading standard enterprises" [4] - The profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels, and the price-to-book (PB) ratio of steel stocks is likely to improve accordingly [4] Group 2: Chemical Industry - Shandong has suspended the qualification of the Gaomi Renhe Chemical Industrial Park, impacting the supply of certain raw materials [5] - The chemical industry is facing safety incidents, but there is a long-term value outlook for leading companies in the sector [5] Group 3: High-end Manufacturing - Domestic sales of excavators faced short-term pressure in May, but the ongoing trend of equipment upgrades is expected to drive sales growth [6] - The engineering machinery sector is supported by favorable policies from the Two Sessions, ensuring sustained mid-term demand recovery [6] - Exports of engineering machinery to North America showed a significant increase, with excavators, tractors, and mining machinery experiencing growth rates of 22%, 30%, and 23% respectively from January to May [8] Group 4: Company-Specific Developments - Yuanli Co., Ltd. completed its employee stock ownership plan, indicating a gradual emergence of its long-term investment value [9] - Akole Co., Ltd. announced a restricted stock incentive plan, which is expected to motivate core team members and facilitate the mass sales of COC/COP products within 2025 [10] - Chipsea Technology is experiencing a recovery in downstream demand, leading to an increase in shipment volumes [11]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic excavator sales in China are under short-term pressure due to low downstream operating conditions and the high growth in sales earlier in the year, which has somewhat exhausted future purchasing demand. However, the continuous growth in equipment replacement is expected to support future sales [4]. Group 1: Domestic Excavator Sales - In the first five months of 2025, China's excavator sales (including exports) reached 101,716 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, with domestic sales of 57,501 units, up 25.7%. In May 2025, excavator sales were 18,202 units, a 2.1% increase year-on-year, while domestic sales were 8,392 units, down 1.5% [3]. - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in May 2025 were 84.5 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, and the average operating rate was 59.5%, down 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Government Policy Support - The 2025 government work report proposed issuing 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, and plans to accelerate key project implementations, which is expected to boost infrastructure investment and downstream equipment demand [5]. - The report emphasizes the continuation of urban infrastructure investment and the promotion of new urbanization, particularly in underground engineering, municipal construction, and water conservancy projects, which will sustain demand for construction machinery [6]. Group 3: Export Trends - In the first five months of 2025, excavator exports reached 44,215 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%. In May 2025, exports were 9,810 units, up 5.4% year-on-year. The export market is influenced by geopolitical factors and increasing demand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East [7]. Group 4: Electrification Trends - In the first five months of 2025, electric loader sales reached 10,904 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 207.7%, with an electrification rate of 20.7%, up 14.5 percentage points. In May 2025, sales were 2,765 units, a 121.2% increase year-on-year, with an electrification rate of 26.2%, up 13.5 percentage points [8]. - The government work report highlights the acceleration of green transformation in economic and social development, indicating that electrification and green initiatives will be key development directions for the construction machinery industry [8].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic excavator sales in May 2025 are under short-term pressure due to weak downstream construction activity and the earlier high growth in sales that has overstated future demand [1][2] Group 1: Sales Performance - In the first five months of 2025, China's excavator sales (including exports) reached 101,716 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, with domestic sales at 57,501 units, up 25.7% [1] - In May 2025, excavator sales (including exports) totaled 18,202 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while domestic sales were 8,392 units, showing a decline of 1.5% [1] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in May 2025 were 84.5 hours, down 3.9% year-on-year and 6.3% month-on-month [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the continuous growth in the replacement of construction machinery, which is expected to support future excavator sales, with a projected compound growth rate of around 30% for replacement demand in the coming years [2] - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in special bonds and increase local government special bonds to 4.4 trillion yuan, which is expected to stimulate infrastructure investment and subsequently boost equipment demand [3] Group 3: Export Trends - In the first five months of 2025, excavator exports reached 44,215 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, with May exports at 9,810 units, up 5.4% [4] - The company sees opportunities in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East for construction machinery exports, despite challenges such as the changing geopolitical landscape and uncertainties related to US-China tariffs [4] Group 4: Electrification Trends - In the first five months of 2025, electric loader sales surged to 10,904 units, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 207.7%, with an electrification rate of 20.7%, up 14.5 percentage points [5] - The government emphasizes green transformation and the promotion of electric machinery, which is expected to accelerate the electrification process in the construction machinery sector, enhancing revenue and profits for manufacturers [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the engineering machinery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing steady revenue growth, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth in 2024 and Q1 2025 [3][4] - The industry is benefiting from cost reduction, efficiency improvements, and product structure optimization, leading to a recovery in profitability [5] - The demand for engineering machinery is expected to continue its recovery due to strong government support and infrastructure investment [7] - The trend towards electrification in the engineering machinery sector is accelerating, with significant growth in electric loader sales [9] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the overall revenue of listed companies in the engineering machinery industry reached 355.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [3] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 96.13 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 was 29.77 billion yuan, up 16.9% year-on-year, with Q1 2025 showing a 30.2% increase to 9.72 billion yuan [4] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for the industry in 2024 was 25.5%, a slight increase from the previous year, while the net margin improved to 8.7% [5] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin slightly decreased to 25.1%, but the net margin rose to 10.3% [5] Sales Trends - From January to April 2025, excavator sales reached 83,514 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, with domestic sales growing by 31.9% [6] - The report highlights a significant increase in electric loader sales, with a year-on-year growth of 254.8% in Q1 2025 [9] Government Support and Market Outlook - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds to support infrastructure projects, which is expected to boost demand for engineering machinery [7] - The report anticipates continued growth in the international market for engineering machinery, particularly in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, LiuGong, and Shantui, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic [10]