证券研究报告·公司点评报告·工程机械 恒立液压（601100） 2025 半年报点评：Q2 归母净利润同比 +18.3%，看好第二成长曲线逐步兑现 买入（维持） ◼ 海外工厂落地+丝杠项目多点开花打造第二成长曲线 公司多元化、国际化战略推进，业绩有望持续增长：（1）墨西哥项目：公 司在墨西哥建立液压件生产基地，已正式投产运营，有助于公司顺利切入 北美挖机、高机、农机高端客户供应链，成长空间广阔。（2）线性驱动器 项目：公司已设立三个事业部，分别为电动缸事业部、丝杠事业部和导轨 事业部，滚珠丝杠、滚柱丝杠、导轨等部分样品在试制中，目前已实现高 端丝杠产品覆盖。公司将继续以技术创新和高品质为核心，深化客户与经 销商合作，推动精密丝杠、直线导轨、电动缸等产品在更多场景落地，巩 固电传动和液压传动领域领先地位。此外，公司积极布局工程机械电动化 零部件，目前电动缸已于高机产品中率先铺开，得到市场充分验证，未来 将有机会在更多工程机械产品中得到验证。 ◼ 盈利预测与投资评级： 我们维持公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润预测为 28.7/34.1/41.4 亿元，当前股价对应 PE 分别为 41/34/28X，维持"买 ...

Core Viewpoint - The electricization of the construction machinery industry in China is accelerating, driven by major projects and market demand, leading to significant growth in lithium battery demand for electric construction machinery [4][11][18]. Group 1: Market Overview - The construction machinery industry in China has maintained stable development, with a total sales of 968,900 units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.58% [7]. - The electricization rate of major construction machinery products is increasing significantly, with electric loaders seeing a sales increase of 172.8% year-on-year, reaching a penetration rate of 21.5% [7][11]. - GGII predicts that by 2030, the overall electricization penetration rate of the construction machinery industry in China will exceed 50% [8]. Group 2: Lithium Battery Demand - The demand for lithium batteries in construction machinery is expected to grow rapidly, with a shipment volume of over 11 GWh in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 60% [11]. - The electric loader segment is the fastest-growing, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 170% [11]. - GGII estimates that by 2030, the shipment volume of lithium batteries for construction machinery in China will reach over 100 GWh, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 36% from 2025 to 2030 [11]. Group 3: Major Projects and Opportunities - The launch of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project is expected to generate a demand for construction machinery equipment worth 1200-1800 billion yuan, with lithium batteries accounting for approximately 480-720 billion yuan of this cost [4]. - The project is anticipated to drive the electricization of construction machinery, benefiting leading battery manufacturers such as CATL and Eve Energy [4][11]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Leading lithium battery companies, including CATL and Eve Energy, are actively engaging in the electric construction machinery market, with CATL holding a market share exceeding 55% in this sector [14][15]. - Eve Energy has launched specific products for the construction machinery market, addressing key industry pain points such as battery size and lifespan [15][16]. - Other companies like BYD and Guoxuan High-Tech are also developing diverse technological routes to capture market share in the electric construction machinery segment [16].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic excavator market in China is experiencing significant growth, with sales figures showing a strong upward trend in both domestic and export markets, driven by favorable policies and increasing infrastructure investments [1][2][3]. Group 1: Sales Data - In July, major domestic excavator manufacturers sold 17,138 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, with domestic sales at 7,306 units (up 17.2%) and exports at 9,832 units (up 31.9%) [1][2]. - From January to July, a total of 137,658 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.8%, with domestic sales of 72,943 units (up 22.3%) and exports of 64,715 units (up 13%) [1][2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The excavator industry is expected to maintain steady growth over the next three years, supported by improved fixed asset investment and a new growth cycle in the industry [2][3]. - Future annual exports of excavators are projected to be around 100,000 to 120,000 units, driven by increasing demand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East [3][4]. Group 3: Market Drivers - The growth in the excavator market is attributed to two main factors: the rising competitiveness of domestic brands and the recovery of market demand [4][5]. - The mining sector is anticipated to be a significant driver for large excavator sales, with fixed asset investments in mining expected to grow by 10.5% in 2024 [6]. Group 4: Major Projects - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with an investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly boost demand for construction machinery [7]. - The demand for construction machinery is likely to increase due to the high-altitude construction environment and the push for electric and unmanned equipment in large projects [7].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic excavator sales in July 2025 showed strong performance, indicating a positive trend in the engineering machinery sector driven by equipment replacement and government support for infrastructure projects [4][5][6]. Group 1: Domestic Excavator Sales - In July 2025, total excavator sales (including exports) reached 17,138 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, with domestic sales at 7,306 units, up 17.2% [4]. - From January to July 2025, total excavator sales amounted to 137,658 units, reflecting a 17.8% year-on-year growth, while domestic sales were 72,943 units, increasing by 22.3% [4]. - The ongoing replacement cycle of engineering machinery, with a typical lifespan of 8-10 years, is expected to drive a compound growth rate of around 30% in replacement demand for excavators in the coming years [4]. Group 2: Government Policy Support - The 2025 government work report proposed issuing 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, to support key projects and infrastructure investments [5][6]. - The report emphasized the continuation of urban infrastructure investments, particularly in areas such as urban renewal, flood control systems, and digital infrastructure, which will sustain demand for engineering machinery [6]. Group 3: Export Performance - In July 2025, excavator exports reached 9,832 units, marking a 31.9% year-on-year increase, with total exports from January to July at 64,715 units, up 13.0% [7]. - The engineering machinery export sector is expected to benefit from increased demand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, despite facing challenges such as U.S.-China tariff uncertainties [7]. Group 4: Electric Machinery Trends - In July 2025, electric loader sales surged to 2,391 units, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 81.5%, with an electricization rate of 26.6%, up 10.8 percentage points [8]. - From January to July 2025, electric loader sales totaled 16,344 units, reflecting a 154.1% year-on-year growth, with an electricization rate of 22.2%, an increase of 13.4 percentage points [8]. - The government’s push for green transformation and energy efficiency is expected to accelerate the electrification of engineering machinery, enhancing revenue and profit for manufacturers [8]. Group 5: Major Projects Impact - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is anticipated to significantly boost demand for engineering machinery [9]. - The project is expected to require around 120 to 180 billion yuan worth of machinery, with a focus on large excavators, tunnel boring machines, and concrete machinery due to its scale and environmental considerations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights the strong performance of domestic sales and exports in the construction machinery sector, driven by ongoing upgrades and replacements, supportive government policies, and increasing internationalization and electrification of the industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: Domestic Sales Performance - In July 2025, domestic excavator sales reached 7,306 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, while total excavator sales (including exports) were 17,138 units, up 25.2% [1]. - From January to July 2025, total excavator sales amounted to 137,658 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.8%, with domestic sales at 72,943 units, increasing by 22.3% [1]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - The continuous upgrade and replacement cycle in construction machinery is expected to support sales, with a projected compound growth rate of around 30% for replacement demand in the coming years [2]. - The export of used construction machinery to developing countries has reduced the domestic inventory, further supporting new machine sales [2]. Group 3: Government Policy Support - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds in 2025, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, to boost infrastructure investment [3]. - The focus on new urbanization and infrastructure projects, including urban renewal and flood control systems, is expected to sustain demand for construction machinery [3]. Group 4: Export Performance - In July 2025, excavator exports reached 9,832 units, a year-on-year increase of 31.9%, with total exports from January to July at 64,715 units, up 13.0% [4]. - The construction machinery sector faces both opportunities and challenges in international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, while also dealing with uncertainties related to US-China tariffs [4]. Group 5: Electrification Trends - In July 2025, electric loader sales surged to 2,391 units, marking an 81.5% year-on-year increase, with an electrification rate of 26.6%, up 10.8 percentage points [5]. - The government emphasizes green transformation and energy-saving initiatives, positioning electrification as a key development direction for the construction machinery industry [5]. Group 6: Major Projects Impact - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with an estimated investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly boost demand for construction machinery [6][7]. - The project is anticipated to require substantial machinery investments, potentially reaching 120 to 180 billion yuan, with a focus on large excavators and other specialized equipment [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The domestic excavator sales in July 2025 showed strong performance, with total sales (including exports) reaching 17,138 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%. Domestic sales accounted for 7,306 units, up 17.2% [3][11]. - The report highlights the ongoing demand for machinery driven by the replacement cycle, estimating a compound growth of around 30% in replacement demand for the coming years [3]. - Government policies from the Two Sessions are expected to support sustained recovery in machinery demand, with significant investments planned in infrastructure projects [4]. - The launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is anticipated to further boost machinery demand, with equipment needs estimated between 120 billion to 180 billion RMB [7]. - The report notes a significant increase in electric loader sales, with July 2025 sales reaching 2,391 units, a year-on-year growth of 81.5%, indicating a shift towards electrification in the industry [6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In July 2025, excavator sales reached 17,138 units, with domestic sales at 7,306 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.2% and 17.2% respectively [3][11]. - The first seven months of 2025 saw total excavator sales of 137,658 units, up 17.8%, with domestic sales at 72,943 units, increasing by 22.3% [3][11]. Government Support - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion RMB in long-term special bonds, increasing infrastructure investment and supporting machinery demand [4]. - The focus on new urbanization and infrastructure development is expected to sustain machinery demand, particularly in underground and municipal construction [4]. Export Trends - Excavator exports in July 2025 reached 9,832 units, a year-on-year increase of 31.9%, with total exports for the first seven months at 64,715 units, up 13.0% [5][11]. - The report identifies opportunities in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East for machinery exports, despite challenges such as U.S.-China tariff uncertainties [5]. Electrification and Innovation - The electric loader sales in July 2025 reached 2,391 units, marking an 81.5% increase, with an electrification rate of 26.6%, up 10.8 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The report emphasizes that the shift towards green and electric machinery is a key development direction for the industry [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several leading machinery manufacturers, including SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and XCMG, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for these companies [8].

Group 1 - The engineering machinery sector showed a 12.29% increase in H1 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 8.97% [13][15] - The sector's five-year PE TTM is 18.66, slightly below the average of 19.73, indicating a valuation at the 40.39 percentile over the past five years [15] - In Q1 2025, the sector's revenue and net profit reached 964.40 billion and 94.78 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.62% and 31.15% [17][19] Group 2 - Domestic sales of excavators in June 2025 reached 8,136 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.20%, supported by infrastructure investments and equipment replacement policies [40][44] - The cumulative sales of excavators in H1 2025 were 120,520 units, reflecting a 16.77% year-on-year growth [40][44] - The construction machinery sector is expected to benefit from significant projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which has a total investment of approximately 1,200 billion [50][53] Group 3 - Excavator exports in June 2025 totaled 10,668 units, marking a 19.30% year-on-year increase, with the U.S. being a major market [54][59] - The total export value of excavators in H1 2025 was approximately 4.89 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.83% [57][59] - The average export price for excavators to the U.S. was around 6,400 USD per unit, indicating a demand for smaller, general-purpose equipment [59][62] Group 4 - The penetration rate of electric machinery is increasing, with policies from the government aimed at phasing out older equipment and promoting the transition to new energy [67][71] - The electric machinery market is expected to grow significantly, with electric forklifts and loaders showing high penetration rates of 53.52% and 12.78% respectively [71][75] - The overall electric machinery penetration rate in China is projected to reach approximately 29.60% by 2024 [71][72] Group 5 - The investment recommendation maintains a "market perform" rating, with a focus on companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic [84]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transition of China's construction machinery industry into an "electric era," driven by significant projects like the Yajiang hydropower project, which is expected to create a substantial demand for electric machinery and promote a green revolution in construction processes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Demand and Economic Drivers - The Yajiang hydropower project, with an investment of 1.2 trillion RMB, is projected to generate a demand for construction machinery worth between 120 billion to 180 billion RMB, as equipment investment typically accounts for 10% to 15% of total project costs [1]. - The unique challenges of the Yajiang project, such as high altitude and stringent environmental requirements, are expected to increase the actual value of equipment demand, favoring the use of new energy and unmanned equipment [1][2]. - Electric mining trucks have a significant advantage over traditional diesel trucks, as they can recover over 30% of potential energy during downhill operations, leading to reduced energy consumption and extended operational efficiency [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Sales Data - In the first half of 2025, the loader market saw total sales of 64,769 units, with electric loaders accounting for 13,953 units sold, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 173.84% and a penetration rate of 21.54% [3]. - The excavator market, while larger, is slower in electric adoption, with only 140 electric excavators sold in the same period, but showing a growth rate exceeding 150% [3]. - The electric mining truck market is growing rapidly, with sales increasing by over 70% in 2024 and a penetration rate exceeding 13% [3]. Group 3: Industry Transformation and Collaboration - Major global construction machinery companies are accelerating their electric transition and forming deep partnerships with battery and electric control system firms, exemplified by SANY's collaboration with CATL and XCMG's joint venture with BYD [4]. - BHP, the world's largest mining company, has signed memorandums with CATL and BYD to develop integrated electrification solutions for mining equipment, indicating a global recognition of electric solutions validated in the Chinese market [4]. - The industry faces challenges such as a lack of collaboration within the supply chain and the need for a more integrated solution encompassing solar, storage, and charging systems [4][5]. Group 4: Market Concentration and Future Outlook - The concentration of the domestic construction machinery market is increasing, with the top four companies holding a market share of 68.4% in 2023, and the top five companies exceeding 75% in the electric sector [6]. - The successful implementation of the "zero-carbon transport system" in extreme conditions like those in Yajiang could lead to broader adoption in China's western regions and along the Belt and Road Initiative, as well as in extreme mining areas in Africa and Latin America [6]. - The ultimate goal of electric construction machinery is to surpass traditional diesel machinery through the integration of intelligent technologies, marking the beginning of a significant transformation in the industry [6].

Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery industry is undergoing a significant transformation towards electrification, which is essential for achieving the national "dual carbon" goals, transitioning from the "fuel era" to the "charging era" [1] Group 1: Cost Efficiency - Electric machinery can save 70% on electricity costs compared to fuel, resulting in a monthly savings of 110,000 yuan, which translates to an annual savings of 1.32 million yuan per unit [1] - Maintenance costs for oil and urea are reduced by over 10,000 yuan per month per unit [1] - Overall usage costs for electric excavators are over 60% lower than those of fuel-powered excavators [6] Group 2: Environmental Benefits - The transition to electric machinery achieves zero emissions, equating to a reduction of 70,000 tons of CO₂ per month [1] - Noise levels are reduced by 30 decibels, contributing to a quieter working environment [1] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The electric excavator utilizes a permanent magnet synchronous motor paired with a Kawasaki hydraulic system, featuring a compact and integrated design for the control system, enhancing durability and shock resistance [3] - The accompanying mobile power station, referred to as a "giant charging treasure," allows for flexible charging and discharging, suitable for harsh working conditions [4] - The mobile power station includes advanced energy management systems (BMS, EMS) to improve energy conversion efficiency and supports real-time monitoring via web and app interfaces [4] Group 4: Safety Features - The mobile power source includes multiple safety guarantees, such as over-voltage, over-current, and leakage protection, with real-time monitoring capabilities [5] Group 5: Industry Outlook - Hefei Bolante Technology aims to collaborate with more partners to explore the potential of new energy technologies, striving to become a leader in the new energy sector and contribute to the national "dual carbon" strategy [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [8] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic sales of excavators and loaders, with excavator sales in June 2025 reaching 18,804 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, and loader sales reaching 12,014 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [5][7] - The domestic excavator market shows a strong recovery, with a 22.9% year-on-year increase in sales during the first half of 2025, driven by ongoing infrastructure investments and government policies supporting equipment upgrades [7] - Export growth is notable, with excavator exports in June 2025 increasing by 19.3%, reflecting a recovery in the external trade environment and expanding into emerging markets [7] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales - In June 2025, a total of 18,804 excavators were sold, with domestic sales of 8,136 units (up 6.2%) and exports of 10,668 units (up 19.3%) [7] - For the first half of 2025, total excavator sales reached 120,520 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, with domestic sales growing by 22.9% [7] Loader Sales - In June 2025, loader sales totaled 12,014 units, with domestic sales of 6,015 units (up 13.6%) and exports of 5,999 units (up 9.11%) [5] - The first half of 2025 saw total loader sales of 64,769 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [5] Market Trends - The report notes a strong recovery in domestic demand for excavators, supported by ongoing infrastructure investments and government policies aimed at replacing old equipment [7] - The trend towards electric loaders is evident, with 3,049 electric loaders sold in June 2025, achieving an electric penetration rate of 25.38% [7] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong brand recognition, comprehensive product matrices, efficient cost management, and robust R&D capabilities, such as Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Shantui, and Hengli Hydraulic [7]