Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock price has shown a narrow fluctuation, closing at HKD 5.90 on February 11, 2026, with a target average price set at HKD 24.10, indicating a premium of over 300% compared to the current price [2] - Technical indicators such as MACD suggest a short-term consolidation pattern, necessitating observation of market liquidity improvements and the convergence of valuation gaps [2] Group 2: Strategic Development - The company established a subsidiary in Indonesia in 2025 and initiated operations, with a subsequent addition of a subsidiary in Vietnam to its Southeast Asia network [3] - Plans for expansion into Thailand and Malaysia are underway to enhance regional market coverage and brand influence, with internationalization expected to drive business penetration and revenue growth [3] Group 3: Business Progress - The electric loader business is identified as a second growth curve, with a fleet size reaching 316 units by mid-2025 and cumulative subscription revenue exceeding 10 million [4] - Future focus will be on increasing market penetration in the new energy equipment leasing sector and its contribution to overall profitability [4] Group 4: Industry Conditions - The global forklift industry is experiencing a structural recovery, with new order growth reaching 12% in the second quarter of 2025 [5] - The company is transitioning to a light-asset smart operation platform, enhancing equipment utilization through a "subscription + maintenance + management" ecosystem, with a management scale of 59,717 units by mid-2025 [5] - Changes in industry demand and the efficiency of the platform model will be key observation points for sustainable performance [5] Group 5: Company Structure and Governance - Attention is required for the company's periodic financial reports, such as the full-year results for 2025, and announcements from the board regarding strategic adjustments and capital operations [6] - The stability of the shareholding structure may impact governance transparency [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" [1] Core Insights - In January 2026, excavator sales reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.50%, but a month-on-month decrease of 19.00%. Domestic sales were 8,723 units, up 61.39% year-on-year, while export sales were 9,985 units, up 40.50% year-on-year [3][4] - Loader sales in January 2026 totaled 11,759 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.47% and a month-on-month decrease of 3.90%. Domestic sales were 5,293 units, up 42.82% year-on-year, while export sales were 6,466 units, up 53.44% year-on-year [3][4] - The issuance of new special bonds in January 2026 amounted to approximately 367.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.54%, which is expected to boost downstream engineering project commencement and equipment demand [4] - The report highlights a recovery in domestic engineering machinery demand, driven by the acceleration of special bond issuance and the commencement of major domestic projects [4] - The electric excavator sales reached 35 units in January 2026, a year-on-year increase of 94.44%, while electric loader sales were 2,990 units, up 175.32% year-on-year, indicating a growing trend towards electrification in the industry [3][4][5] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales - January 2026 excavator sales were 18,708 units, with domestic sales at 8,723 units and export sales at 9,985 units, showing significant year-on-year growth [3][4] Loader Sales - January 2026 loader sales were 11,759 units, with domestic sales at 5,293 units and export sales at 6,466 units, also reflecting strong year-on-year growth [3][4] Special Bonds and Policy Impact - The acceleration of special bond issuance and the initiation of major projects are expected to enhance equipment demand in the engineering machinery sector [4] Electrification Trend - The report emphasizes the importance of electric machinery, with significant year-on-year growth in sales of electric excavators and loaders, indicating a shift towards greener technology [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the domestic demand for construction machinery is recovering, driven by major water conservancy projects and the establishment of overseas production capacity by domestic companies, leading to an acceleration in globalization and increased market penetration [1][2][3] Group 2 - In January 2026, excavator sales reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales at 8,723 units (up 61.4%) and export sales at 9,985 units (up 40.5%) [1][2] - The demand for excavators is expected to continue its recovery due to upcoming projects in various sectors, including mining and infrastructure, as well as government policies promoting the replacement of old equipment [2] Group 3 - Loader sales in January 2026 totaled 11,759 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 48.5%, with domestic sales at 5,293 units (up 42.8%) and export sales at 6,466 units (up 53.4%) [1][3] - The electric loader segment saw sales of 2,990 units, achieving a penetration rate of 25.43%, indicating a growing acceptance of electric machinery in the market [3][3] Group 4 - LiuGong's projected net profit for 2025 is between 1.526 billion and 1.659 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15-25%, driven by stable demand in the domestic market and a recovering international market [4] - The company's growth strategy focuses on comprehensive solutions, digitalization, and globalization, aiming to optimize business combinations and reduce costs across the value chain [4]

Core Viewpoint - The sales of excavators and loaders in January 2026 show significant growth, indicating a strong recovery in the domestic and international construction machinery market driven by major infrastructure projects and increasing demand for equipment upgrades [2][3][4]. Excavator Sales - In January 2026, a total of 18,708 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales reaching 8,723 units (up 61.4%) and exports totaling 9,985 units (up 40.5%) [2][3]. - The strong growth in domestic sales is attributed to a low base from the previous year due to the early Spring Festival, and upcoming projects in various sectors are expected to further boost demand [3]. - The export value of excavators in December 2025 was $1.277 billion, a month-on-month increase of 39.28%, and a year-on-year increase of 75.17% compared to December 2024 [3]. Loader Sales - In January 2026, a total of 11,759 loaders were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 48.5%, with domestic sales of 5,293 units (up 42.8%) and exports of 6,466 units (up 53.4%) [2][4]. - The growth in domestic loader sales is driven by the commencement of major projects, such as the Yaxia Hydropower Station and the New Tibet Railway, which have increased demand for earth-moving equipment [4]. - The sales of electric loaders reached 2,990 units, with an electric penetration rate of 25.43%, indicating a growing acceptance of electric machinery in the market [4]. Company Performance - Liugong (000528) is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.526 billion to 1.659 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15-25%, driven by stable demand in the domestic construction machinery sector [4]. - The company's growth strategy focuses on comprehensive solutions, digitalization, and globalization, aiming to optimize business combinations and reduce costs across the value chain [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong brand recognition, comprehensive product matrices, efficient cost management, and robust R&D capabilities, such as SANY Heavy Industry (600031), Zoomlion (000157), Liugong, Shantui (000680), and Hengli Hydraulic (601100) [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in sales of excavators and loaders in January 2026, with excavator sales reaching 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, and loader sales at 11,759 units, up 48.5% [6]. - Domestic excavator sales grew by 61.4% year-on-year, driven by low base effects from the previous year and upcoming large-scale projects in sectors like mining and water conservancy [6]. - Export sales of excavators also showed strong growth, with a 40.5% increase year-on-year, reflecting a growing global demand for Chinese machinery [6]. - The report anticipates a continued recovery in the excavator industry, supported by government policies promoting the replacement of old equipment and increasing domestic demand [6]. - The loader market is also expected to benefit from major domestic projects, with a notable increase in both domestic and export sales [6]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong brand recognition and efficient cost structures, such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and others [6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In January 2026, excavator sales reached 18,708 units, a 49.5% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales at 8,723 units (up 61.4%) and exports at 9,985 units (up 40.5%) [6]. - Loader sales totaled 11,759 units, marking a 48.5% increase, with domestic sales at 5,293 units (up 42.8%) and exports at 6,466 units (up 53.4%) [6]. Market Trends - The report notes that the strong sales growth in excavators is partly due to a low base from the previous year and the upcoming launch of significant infrastructure projects [6]. - The demand for loaders is also expected to rise due to the commencement of major projects, which will increase the need for earth-moving equipment [6]. Company Performance - LiuGong is projected to achieve a net profit of between 1.526 billion and 1.659 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 15-25% year-on-year, driven by stable demand in the domestic market [6]. - The company is implementing a "three-full" strategy focusing on comprehensive solutions, digitalization, and globalization to enhance its market position [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.526 to 1.659 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15% to 25% [4] - The company adheres to a new "Three Full Strategy" focusing on comprehensive solutions, digitalization, and globalization, which is expected to drive revenue and profit growth [5] - The company has increased its overseas investments, with international business accounting for approximately 47% of total revenue, and plans to establish over 10 new overseas subsidiaries in key markets by 2026 [6] Company Overview - The latest closing price is 11.39 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 23.2 billion yuan [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 60.1% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.69 [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 33.737 billion, 37.205 billion, and 40.599 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.22%, 10.28%, and 9.12% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.593 billion, 1.985 billion, and 2.426 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 20.01%, 24.63%, and 22.22% [8] - The corresponding PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.56, 11.68, and 9.56, maintaining a "Buy" rating [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.526 to 1.659 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15% to 25% [4] - The company adheres to a new "Three Full Strategy" focusing on comprehensive solutions, digitalization, and globalization, which is expected to drive revenue and profit growth [5] - The company has increased its overseas investments, with international business accounting for approximately 47% of total revenue, and plans to establish over 10 new overseas subsidiaries in key markets by 2026 [6] Company Overview - The latest closing price is 11.39 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 23.2 billion yuan [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 60.1% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.69 [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 33.737 billion, 37.205 billion, and 40.599 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.22%, 10.28%, and 9.12% respectively [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.593 billion, 1.985 billion, and 2.426 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 20.01%, 24.63%, and 22.22% respectively [8] - The corresponding PE valuations for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.56, 11.68, and 9.56, maintaining a "Buy" rating [8]

Domestic Business Overview - In 2025, the domestic business showed robust performance across key markets and product lines, driven by unexpected recovery in earthmoving demand, with earthmoving machinery leading the growth [3] - The company anticipates stable growth in the engineering machinery market in 2026, supported by national planning and major project advancements [3] - The strategy focuses on high-quality development, emphasizing product segmentation and integrated solutions to enhance customer loyalty and lifecycle value [3] International Business Expansion - The company plans to increase overseas investments, establishing six new subsidiaries in Nigeria, Italy, and Peru, with overseas business revenue expected to grow over 10% in 2025 [4] - International business now accounts for approximately 47% of total revenue, with core earthmoving machinery sales outpacing the industry by 8 percentage points [4] - The 2026 strategy includes a "three comprehensive" approach to enhance global operations and localize manufacturing capabilities [4] Product Development and Innovation - The mining machinery segment includes a full range of equipment for open-pit mining, with plans to expand into underground equipment [7] - Despite a significant market downturn in 2025, the mining business outperformed the industry by over 15 percentage points due to strategic partnerships [7] - The company aims to become a leading provider of new energy mining machinery by focusing on innovative solutions and a comprehensive product matrix [7] Electric Loader and Agricultural Machinery - The electric loader segment saw over 100% sales growth in 2025, with products now available in over 50 countries [9] - The company is developing a new generation of tractors, with a focus on high-horsepower models and innovative technology to meet market demands [11] Financial Management and Risk Mitigation - The company has incorporated rising raw material prices and currency exchange impacts into its 2026 budget assumptions [12] - Strategies for managing foreign exchange risks include optimizing procurement and utilizing financial instruments for hedging [12]

Group 1: Excavator Sales and Market Trends - In December 2025, excavator sales in China (including exports) reached 23,095 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, with domestic sales at 10,331 units, up 10.9% [4] - For the entire year of 2025, excavator sales (including exports) totaled 235,257 units, marking a 17.0% increase, while domestic sales were 118,518 units, up 17.9% [4] - The non-excavator construction machinery segment showed significant recovery, with loader sales up 17.6%, grader sales up 70.5%, truck crane sales up 39.1%, crawler crane sales up 95.5%, and truck-mounted crane sales up 36.7% in December 2025 [4] Group 2: Export Growth and Opportunities - In December 2025, excavator exports reached 12,764 units, a 26.9% increase, with total annual exports at 116,739 units, up 16.1% [5] - The export value of construction machinery in December 2025 was $6.42 billion, a 27.2% increase, with the total annual export value at $60.17 billion, up 13.8% [5] - Future opportunities for construction machinery exports include demand growth in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, as well as increased penetration in high-end markets in Europe and the U.S. [5] Group 3: Electric Loader Sales and Industry Trends - Electric loader sales in December 2025 reached 2,722 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 218.7%, with an electrification rate of 22.2%, up 13.2 percentage points [7] - For the entire year of 2025, electric loader sales totaled 29,771 units, a 165.3% increase, with an electrification rate of 23.2%, up 12.9 percentage points [7] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for energy-saving and carbon reduction transformations in key industries, indicating that electrification will be a key development direction for the construction machinery sector [7] Group 4: Forklift Sales and Market Potential - In December 2025, total forklift sales reached 111,363 units, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.03%, with domestic sales at 63,807 units, down 5.2%, and export sales at 47,556 units, up 8.0% [8] - For the entire year of 2025, total forklift sales were 1,451,768 units, a 12.9% increase, with domestic sales at 906,812 units, up 12.6%, and export sales at 544,956 units, up 13.4% [8] - The rapid development of robotics and artificial intelligence is driving the penetration of unmanned forklifts, with projected sales of 39,000 units in 2025, a 39.3% increase, indicating significant market growth potential [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The domestic sales of excavators continued to grow in December 2025, with a significant recovery in non-excavator categories. The total excavator sales (including exports) reached 23,095 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, with domestic sales at 10,331 units, up 10.9% [3][4]. - The report highlights a robust recovery in the demand for construction machinery driven by ongoing infrastructure investments and the replacement cycle of machinery, projecting a compound growth rate of around 30% for replacement demand in the coming years [4][5]. - The export of excavators also showed strong growth, with December 2025 exports reaching 12,764 units, a 26.9% increase year-on-year, and total export value for the year at $64.2 billion, up 27.2% [6][10]. Summary by Sections Domestic Sales Performance - In December 2025, excavator sales reached 23,095 units, with domestic sales at 10,331 units, reflecting a 19.2% and 10.9% year-on-year growth respectively. For the entire year, total excavator sales were 235,257 units, up 17.0%, and domestic sales were 118,518 units, up 17.9% [3][14]. - Non-excavator machinery categories also saw significant growth, with loader sales increasing by 30.0% and motor grader sales by 14.0% in December 2025 [14]. Export Performance - The report notes that excavator exports in December 2025 reached 12,764 units, marking a 26.9% increase year-on-year, with total annual exports at 116,739 units, up 16.1% [6][14]. - The total export value of construction machinery for December 2025 was $64.2 billion, a 27.2% increase, with the annual total at $601.7 billion, up 13.8% [6]. Future Demand Drivers - The report emphasizes that active fiscal policies are expected to stimulate infrastructure investment, ensuring sustained demand for construction machinery in the medium term [5]. - The commencement of the Yaxia Hydropower Project, with an estimated investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is projected to significantly boost machinery demand, with equipment needs potentially reaching 120 to 180 billion yuan [9][10]. Electric and Intelligent Machinery Trends - Electric loader sales surged by 218.7% in December 2025, with an electricization rate of 22.2%, indicating a strong trend towards electrification in the machinery sector [7]. - The report also highlights the growth potential in the forklift market, driven by advancements in robotics and artificial intelligence, with a projected 39.3% increase in sales of unmanned forklifts in 2025 [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several leading manufacturers, including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion, as well as component suppliers like Hengli Hydraulic, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for these companies [10].