Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak oscillation, with a daily decline of 1.23%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak. Coupled with poor market sentiment, steel prices are prone to be under pressure and run weakly. However, due to the low inventory pattern, industrial contradictions are not significant, and the downward space is limited. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a weak oscillation trend, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil showed a weak oscillation, with a daily decline of 0.58%, trading volume decreased, and open interest increased. Currently, the optimistic sentiment has faded, and the steel market operation has returned to the industrial end. In the situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of hot-rolled coil are weakening, inventory is continuously increasing, and combined with the downward drag of raw materials, negative factors are fermenting. It is expected that the price of hot-rolled coil will be under pressure and decline weakly, and attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.19%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, the demand for iron ore has certain resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the supply of iron ore is increasing while the demand is weak. In the situation of increasing supply and stable demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weakening. Coupled with poor market sentiment, it is expected that the ore price will continue the high-level oscillation and consolidation trend, and attention should be paid to the trend of finished steel [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission will deepen the reform of factor market allocation, improve the national unified power market system, cultivate the national integrated data market, and promote the construction of a unified and open transportation market. It will also regulate the disorderly competition of enterprises, promote the capacity governance of key industries, standardize bidding and tendering, strengthen the fairness review of bid-winning results, standardize local investment promotion behaviors, and carry out the cleaning and rectification of market access barriers [6]. - From January to July 2025, the total sales of TOP100 real estate enterprises were 207.301 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%. Among them, the sales in July alone decreased by 18.2% year-on-year. The number of enterprises in multiple camps has changed. There were 5 enterprises with sales of over 10 billion yuan, 1 less than the same period last year, and 49 enterprises with sales of over 1 billion yuan [7]. - From January to July 2025, nearly a hundred anti-dumping and countervailing investigations or rulings on Chinese steel products were launched by foreign countries. The涉案 varieties included large-diameter welded pipes, color-coated sheets, stainless steel sinks, hot-rolled carbon steel pipes, wire rods, galvanized sheets, hot-rolled steel, etc. [8] Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,402 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. For hot-rolled coil, the Shanghai price was 3,430 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,390 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,479 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,060 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 100 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,190 yuan/ton, unchanged [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 767 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 738 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ocean freight from Australia was 9.97 US dollars/ton, up 0.13 US dollars; the ocean freight from Brazil was 23.46 US dollars/ton, down 0.13 US dollars. The SGX swap price (current month) was 99.12 US dollars/ton, down 0.08 US dollars, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 99.05 US dollars/ton, down 1.90 US dollars [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,203 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.23%, the highest price was 3,235 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,192 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 1,929,148 lots, a decrease of 801,818 lots, and the open interest was 1,760,703 lots, a decrease of 55,323 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract was 3,401 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.58%, the highest price was 3,433 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,388 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 787,627 lots, a decrease of 282,617 lots, and the open interest was 1,454,760 lots, an increase of 20,824 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 783.0 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.19%, the highest price was 790.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 776.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 261,821 lots, a decrease of 64,473 lots, and the open interest was 410,009 lots, a decrease of 9,550 lots [13]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot-rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45-port iron ore inventory, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, etc.), and steel mill production situation (including 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, 87 independent electric furnace operating rate, etc.) [15][20][30] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of rebar decreased slightly by 0.90 tons, and it remained weakly stable at a low level. However, considering the good profit per ton of the variety and the return of some varieties from conversion, the low supply pattern is unlikely to continue. At the same time, the demand for rebar has weakened again, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 13.17 tons, and the high-frequency daily trading volume also shrinking. Both are still at the low level in the same period in recent years. The weak demand pattern in the off-season remains unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a weak oscillation trend, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - For hot-rolled coil, both supply and demand have changed. After the completion of maintenance, plate steel mills resumed production, and the weekly output of hot-rolled coil increased by 5.30 tons. The supply has increased, and there is room for further increase in the future due to good profit per ton of the variety, so the supply pressure is increasing. At the same time, the demand for hot-rolled coil has certain resilience, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 4.76 tons. However, after the ebb of speculative demand, the high-frequency daily trading volume has declined. The relative positive factor is that the production of the main downstream cold-rolled products remains at a high level, and the industrial contradictions have not intensified, which continues to support the demand for hot-rolled coil. However, the convergence of internal and external price differences and the recurrence of tariff disturbances have led to the fermentation of concerns about external demand, and the demand pressure remains. It is expected that the price of hot-rolled coil will be under pressure and decline weakly, and attention should be paid to overseas risks [39]. - For iron ore, the supply-demand pattern has weakened. Steel mill production is restricted, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has continued to decline. This week, the average daily hot metal output and imported ore daily consumption of sample steel mills decreased month-on-month, and the decline has expanded. The relative positive factor is that the profit situation of steel mills is good, and the sustainability of production reduction is not strong. It is expected that the demand for iron ore will have strong resilience, which will continue to support the ore price. At the same time, the arrival of goods at domestic ports has continued to decline and reached a low level, but it is expected to bottom out and rebound according to the shipping schedule, mainly because the shipments of miners have continued to increase, and they are actively increasing production at high ore prices. The overseas iron ore supply is gradually increasing, and the corresponding domestic iron ore production remains weakly stable. It is expected that the overall iron ore supply will increase. It is expected that the ore price will continue the high-level oscillation and consolidation trend, and attention should be paid to the trend of finished steel [40].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law and outlines various measures to stabilize foreign investment, enhance economic growth, and optimize the business environment in response to complex external conditions [1][3]. Economic Performance - In the first four months of the year, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 16.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, indicating a stable growth in consumption and investment despite external pressures [3]. - The retail sales of home appliances, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment saw significant year-on-year growth rates of 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% respectively in April [28]. Two Major Construction Projects - The "Two Major" construction projects focus on critical areas such as technological self-reliance, urban-rural integration, regional coordinated development, and food security, aiming to address long-standing issues that require central government intervention [7][28]. Foreign Investment Stability - The NDRC is committed to creating a stable environment for foreign investment, emphasizing that policies to attract foreign capital remain unchanged despite global uncertainties [9]. Artificial Intelligence Integration - The NDRC highlights the role of artificial intelligence in transforming various industries, with examples showing significant improvements in production efficiency and cost reductions, such as a 30% increase in product quality and a 70% decrease in R&D costs [11]. Market Access Barrier Removal - The NDRC, in collaboration with other departments, has initiated actions to clear market access barriers, focusing on eliminating unreasonable regulations and practices that hinder market entry [18]. Business Environment Optimization - The NDRC reports improvements in the overall business environment, with over 90% of provincial administrative licensing matters now processed online, enhancing efficiency and accessibility for businesses [22]. Credit Reporting Policy - The NDRC has implemented a policy to replace the requirement for proof of no violations with a specialized credit report, streamlining administrative processes for businesses [23]. Low-altitude Economy Development - The NDRC is focused on the safe and healthy development of the low-altitude economy, emphasizing the importance of safety in expanding low-altitude tourism and related activities [28].