Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint The market rumors have limited impact, and there was an increase in positions and a callback during the night session yesterday. Fundamentally, the consumption of the five major steel products decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis this week, and inventory accumulation was obvious. However, the hot metal output has rebounded to the level of 2.3 million tons. Near the end of the year, it is expected that the hot metal output will maintain the current level and is unlikely to increase further. There is still inventory replenishment expectation for downstream before the Spring Festival, and coking coal has strong support below before the Spring Festival. After the news is falsified, there is a callback, and it is regarded as a short - term range shock [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Quotes - Yesterday's daytime session: The main contract of coking coal Jm2605 closed at 1237.5, a 2.23% increase compared with the daytime opening; the main contract of coke J2605 closed at 1765.0, a 0.45% decrease compared with the daytime opening. - Yesterday's night session: The main contract of coking coal Jm2605 closed at 1177.5, a 1.05% decrease compared with the daytime closing; the main contract of coke J2605 closed at 1730.5, a 1.95% decrease compared with the daytime closing [1]. Important Information - In early 2026, the EU carbon tariff was officially implemented, and the cost of steel exports to the EU will increase significantly. Taking a certificate price of €80/tCO2 as an example, the carbon cost in Indonesia will reach 604.9 euros/ton, and countries with relatively large carbon cost increases also include India, Russia, and China, with China's carbon cost being 161.14 euros/ton. - The research results of key coal mines for power generation in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia show that currently, none of the mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have received official documents or notices related to production capacity reduction, and the market news has not had a substantial impact on the production and sales of coal mines. - This week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.3%, a 5.7% increase on a week - on - week basis. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.899 million tons, a 127,000 - ton increase on a week - on - week basis, and the raw coal inventory was 4.734 million tons, a 17,000 - ton increase on a week - on - week basis. - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.1859 million tons, a 0.4% increase on a week - on - week basis; the total inventory was 12.5392 million tons, a 1.77% increase on a week - on - week basis; the weekly consumption of five major steel products was 7.9862 million tons, a 5% decrease on a week - on - week basis, among which the consumption of building materials decreased by 13.5% on a week - on - week basis, and the consumption of plates decreased by 0.8% on a week - on - week basis [1]. Market Logic The impact of market rumors is limited, and there was an increase in positions and a callback during the night session yesterday. Fundamentally, the consumption of the five major steel products decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis this week, and inventory accumulation was obvious. However, the hot metal output has rebounded to the level of 2.3 million tons. Near the end of the year, it is expected that the hot metal output will maintain the current level and is unlikely to increase further. There is still inventory replenishment expectation for downstream before the Spring Festival, and coking coal has strong support below before the Spring Festival [1]. Trading Strategy After the news is falsified, there is a callback, and it is regarded as a short - term range shock [1].

从市场运行节奏看，沪指反身向上，正在尝试挑战 5 月中旬的高点。沪指于 5 月中旬逐步向下调 整，呈现高低点同步下移特征。但最终在 60 天均线获得支撑后，重新展开了一波反弹，目前正在接近 5 月中旬的高点。当然，去年四季度的成交密集区以及今年一季度的市场高点附近仍有较强技术阻力。 首先，市场短期聚焦中美经贸磋商的进程。继上周四中美两国领导人电话沟通之后，双方的新一轮 经贸磋商在英国正式拉开帷幕。近期国内资本市场重心缓慢上移，这其中也已经部分定价了中美贸易缓 和的预期。当然，如果会谈的具体结果低于市场预期的话，短期市场出现些许调整也属正常。目前来 看，围绕基本面预期的波动尚在可控范围之内，预计短期仍是区间震荡行情。 风险提示：国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期；上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 其次，两市震荡回落，成交增加。周二，两市平开后，上午横向整理，午后出现一波快速的调整， 尾盘略有收回，沪指收盘于略低于五天线。深圳成指周一刚站上 60 天均线，周二再次跌破，显示上方 仍有压力。两市量能超过了 1.4 万亿元，较本周一明显增加。微观结构上，全天个股涨少跌多，涨停股 票数量有所减少。当天市场热点主 ...