Group 1 - The outlook for policy interest rates indicates that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is not guaranteed, with significant disagreement among FOMC members about whether to pause [1] - The composition of the balance sheet has not been decided, and adjustments will be gradual, aiming for a shorter duration of the balance sheet [1] - The employment market is cooling due to restrictive policies, but there is no significant worsening in job market weakness, with job vacancies indicating stability over the past month [1] Group 2 - Inflation data shows that the September CPI was more moderate than expected, with core PCE potentially at 2.3% or 2.4% when excluding tariffs, and non-tariff inflation remaining close to the 2% target [1] - The potential government shutdown could impact the December FOMC monetary policy meeting, as private sector data cannot replace government statistics [1] - Market reactions include a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield by over 8 basis points, stabilizing around 4.0583%, and a rise in the 2-year Treasury yield by over 10 basis points, stabilizing around 3.5919% [1]

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Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, and the core CPI rose by 0.32%, both meeting expectations[1] - Year-on-year, the CPI was expected to be 2.8% but came in at 2.7%, while the core CPI was expected at 3.0% and actual was 3.06%, with discrepancies attributed to seasonal adjustments and rounding issues[1] Inflation Structure - The rebound in used car prices, tariff impacts on furniture and auto parts, and fluctuations in airfare and hotel prices contributed to the inflation increase[1] - Core goods CPI month-on-month slightly increased from 0.20% to 0.21%, while transportation goods improved from -0.38% to 0.22%[1] - Housing services rose from 0.18% to 0.23%, with owner’s equivalent rent (OER) and rent price rent (RPR) at 0.28% and 0.26% respectively, returning to pre-pandemic levels[1] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the market narrative shifted to "moderate inflation → increased rate cut expectations → improved growth outlook," leading to a drop in 2-year Treasury yields to 3.72% and a rise in 10-year yields to 4.31%[1] - The dollar index fell below 98, while gold prices decreased, and U.S. stocks and silver prices increased[1] Rate Cut Expectations - Current market pricing suggests 2.4 rate cuts (61 basis points) for the year, but there is an anticipated adjustment of at least 11 basis points downward[1] - The optimistic scenario for rate cuts is two times (September and December), while the pessimistic scenario is one time (October)[1] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential overreach in Trump’s policies, excessive rate cuts leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK Prime Minister Starmer declined to comment on market reactions [1] Group 1 - The refusal to comment may indicate a cautious approach towards market volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, emphasizes the importance of monitoring market reactions to trade news [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England is closely observing how market participants respond to trade-related developments [1] - Bailey indicates that understanding market sentiment is crucial for effective monetary policy [1] - The central bank's decisions may be influenced by the implications of trade news on economic stability [1]