证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250813 过于乐观的降息预期——2025 年 7 月美国 CPI 数据点评 2025 年 08 月 13 日 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《预计 7 月贷款需求回落、社融增速 平稳增长》 2025-08-10 《美国 7 月 CPI 前瞻：商品价格抬升 或推动 CPI 环比走高》 2025-08-10 东吴证券研究所 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 宏观点评 图1：美国 CPI 主要分项环比增速 | 拉动率 | 权重 | 环比增速 | 2025/07 | 2025/06 | 2025/05 | 2025/04 | 2025/03 | 2025/02 | 2025/01 | 2024/1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's trade protectionism is reshaping the operational logic of the U.S. real estate market, with economists warning that 2025 may be a critical turning point due to the combined pressures of trade policy and economic cycles [1] Supply-Side Impact - The latest financial report from builder PulteGroup reveals the transmission effects of tariffs, with key building materials like bathroom fixtures and tiles seeing procurement costs rise due to a 10% global tariff policy, despite temporary exemptions for materials like copper and lumber [2] - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) indicates that the cost of single-family home construction has increased by 37% since 2020, with tariff-related costs accounting for 19% of this increase [2] - Labor market constraints are exacerbated by tightened immigration policies, leading to a labor shortage of 300,000 in the construction industry, which directly raises labor costs [2] - Developer willingness to start new projects has dropped to the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis due to the dual pressures of material tariffs and labor shortages [2] Demand-Side Pressure - Housing affordability is experiencing systemic deterioration, with the median U.S. household income now allocating 34% to mortgage payments, surpassing the historical warning line since the 1980s [2] - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains high at 6.8%, having doubled from its 2020 low, despite the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates [2] - The Case-Shiller index shows that home prices are rising at a rate that consistently exceeds CPI growth, with actual home prices up 89% from their 2012 low [2] - Core inflation in housing rent has increased by 5.7% year-over-year, contributing significantly to price stickiness [2] Monetary Policy Dilemma - The structure of inflation is forcing monetary policy into a dilemma, with the Federal Reserve's vice chairman acknowledging that supply-side inflation from trade policies is undermining the effectiveness of demand management policies [4] - Market expectations indicate that there is less than 50 basis points of room for interest rate cuts before 2026, suggesting that mortgage rates may remain elevated for an extended period [4] Regional Disparities - Structural adjustments in the market are leading to increasing regional disparities, with cities in the Midwest like Chicago and Detroit maintaining a reasonable price-to-income ratio of 4.2, while high-cost areas like San Jose and Honolulu exceed 12 [5] - Fairweather warns that simply addressing spatial mismatches will not resolve fundamental issues for employment groups reliant on high-paying sectors like technology and finance [5] Proposed Solutions - To address systemic challenges, Fairweather suggests multi-layered solutions, including establishing a special impact assessment mechanism for tariff policies on the real estate market at the federal level [5] - At the local level, reforms to "Planning Commission 2.0" should incorporate housing affordability metrics into land development approval processes [5] - The housing crisis is fundamentally a failure of public policy, necessitating a comprehensive response framework that includes immigration, trade, and monetary policies [5]