从破产到交易之神的逆袭之路 ●人物简介● 汤姆・霍加德\\ 英国资本市场知名操盘手，他在英国两所大学分别获得了经济学学士与金融学硕士学位，毕业后进入摩根大通工作，随后在伦敦一家差价合约经纪商担 任首席市场策略师。自 2009 年起，霍加德选择成为一名专职操盘手，从事自有资金操作。霍加德的交易成绩十分惊人，他曾获多个交易大赛的冠军，在 其中一次大赛中，他在一年内将 3 万美元变成 130 多万美元。他还曾连续 39 个交易日无亏损，月赚 40 万美元。 30 年前，汤姆・霍加德怀揣着对金融市场交易的无限憧憬，毅然离开了家乡丹麦，奔赴金融之都伦敦 。他清楚地知道，要在竞争激烈的交易领域崭露头 角，需要付出诸多努力。为此，他先后获得了经济学学士学位以及货币银行金融学硕士学位，以为凭借这些扎实的专业知识、良好的职业道德和对市场 的满腔热情，就能在交易世界中如鱼得水，开启辉煌的交易生涯。然而，现实却给了他沉重的一击。在理论层面，他确实具备了在金融市场闯荡的资 格，可在竞争异常激烈、瞬息万变的真实交易世界里，这些教育资格的作用却远没有他想象中那么大。 初入交易领域的汤姆・霍加德，满怀着信心开启了全职交易之路。但现实却残酷 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is initiating interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in global asset prices and creating a bubble driven by loose monetary policy [1] - As of September 22, gold has risen by 35.4%, Bitcoin by 17.2%, and global stock markets by 14.3%, while the dollar index and oil prices have fallen by 9.3% and 11.4% respectively [1] - Michael Hartnett from Bank of America highlights a "run-it-hot" policy environment supported by tariff cuts, tax reductions, and interest rate cuts, providing implicit guarantees for the economy and stock market [1][4] Group 2 - Current market sentiment reflects a belief that "money is depreciating, and holding it is less favorable than spending or investing," driving funds into risk assets [3] - Fund managers are compelled to chase high-risk, high-beta investments to keep up with market benchmarks as the year-end bonus season approaches [3] Group 3 - Historical data suggests that the current market rally may still have room to grow, with past bubbles averaging a 244% rise from low to peak [4] - The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks have increased by 223% since March 2023, with a dynamic P/E ratio of 39, indicating potential for further gains [4] Group 4 - Hartnett proposes five trading strategies to navigate the current bubble: 1. Go long on core bubble assets 2. Construct a "barbell" portfolio with bubble assets and undervalued value stocks 3. Short corporate bonds of bubble stocks 4. Short U.S. bonds 5. Go long on bond volatility while shorting stock volatility [6][7][8] Group 5 - The ongoing dollar weakness presents opportunities in international markets, with a theme of "global rebalancing" emerging in the latter half of the 2020s [11] - A notable correlation between the yen and Japanese stocks suggests a potential bull market in Japan, indicating a synchronized rise in the yen and stock market [11]

从某些方面来说，加里·史蒂芬森天生就是个交易员。 童年时，他穿着破旧的鞋子和哥哥的校服，在伦敦东区的街道阴影里踢着破烂的泡沫足球。他总会在黄昏眺望远方金丝雀码头的摩天大楼——它们 象征着一种他渴望却不可及的全新生活。 加里12岁在学校兜售糖果，16岁游走于灰色地带做交易，但那些小打小闹从来都不是他真正的志向。 他知道，总有一天加里·史蒂文森会出人头地。 他成功了，而且速度惊人。 2008年入职花旗银行，成为伦敦最年轻的交易员；仅用3年，便跻身全球交易规模最大的操盘手之列，日掌数千亿美 元。 然而，正值人生巅峰，春风得意之际，他却做出了一个令所有人瞠目的决定： 退出金融行业。 日交易数千亿美元的狂热背后，他却总是夜不能寐。 历经热血、疯狂与破灭，他决定找回真正的自己，并把这段惊心动魄的经历写成一本书—— 《交易游戏》 。 加里·史蒂芬森想要告诉我们， 他在瞬息万变的市场中稳赚不赔、一赢再赢的致富秘诀；更想为每一个普通人发出掷地有声的诘问：我们拼尽全 力，还能挣得想要的未来吗？ 致所有处于饥寒交迫中但又梦想成为百万富翁的少年， 本书既是为了他自己而写，也是为了你们而写。 ——加里·史蒂文森 *以下内容摘编自《交易 ...

9月14日,由JUNO MARKETS赞助的2025年《财商汇2025交易员技术峰会》在羊城广州圆满举行。 金秋时节的广州,尽管高温难耐,仍未能阻挡数百名交易员与投资爱好者的热情。他们齐聚一堂,共同聆听 专业讲师解析黄金交易策略,深入探讨市场智慧与实战技巧。 下午两点,会议正式开始。JUNO MARKETS品牌代表上台致辞,其在简要介绍平台后指出,本次活动旨在 为与会嘉宾呈现前沿市场分析,并共同见证交易策略从模糊到清晰的演变过程,带来富有启发的专业体 验。 干货分享,闪耀智慧之光 会上,三位专业讲师各展绝技,为与会人员带来了一场精彩纷呈的干货分享。 首先,由实战经验丰富的潘磊老师带来主题演讲——《读懂市场主力订单,成为主力跟随者》。 潘老师围绕核心入场模型、每日市场偏见、日内交易区间分析、交易时间段及进出场策略等方向,进行 了深入的技术分析实战讲解。 在关键环节,他贴心提示交易风险,帮助与会人员快速把握市场主要趋势,实现高效交易,获得了一致好评。 紧接着,罗宾老师上台,分享主题为《交易,不是直觉》的演讲。 拥有8年投行机构交易经验的他,结合R.S.R.R.流程,详细讲解了市场环境判断、交易策略制定、止损与仓 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities and risks associated with investing during a bull market, emphasizing that historical patterns do not guarantee future outcomes and cautioning against excessive leverage [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Phases and Investor Behavior - The current market phase is debated, with opinions varying on whether it is in the early, middle, or late stages of a bull market [6][7][8]. - Investors are advised to be cautious, as the market can experience significant downturns despite the prevailing bullish sentiment [1][5]. - There is a sentiment that many investors are heavily leveraged, which could lead to substantial losses if the market turns [10][15]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment and Market Sentiment - There are negative signals from the government, such as certain funds reducing their holdings and regulatory scrutiny on speculative trading [4]. - Despite the current bullish market, there is a concern that the absence of cheap stocks and ineffective negative news could indicate a market nearing its peak [6][14]. - The article highlights a strong profit-making effect in the market, suggesting that skepticism about the bull market may stem from inadequate information or flawed reasoning [14][15].

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, and the core CPI rose by 0.32%, both meeting expectations[1] - Year-on-year, the CPI was expected to be 2.8% but came in at 2.7%, while the core CPI was expected at 3.0% and actual was 3.06%, with discrepancies attributed to seasonal adjustments and rounding issues[1] Inflation Structure - The rebound in used car prices, tariff impacts on furniture and auto parts, and fluctuations in airfare and hotel prices contributed to the inflation increase[1] - Core goods CPI month-on-month slightly increased from 0.20% to 0.21%, while transportation goods improved from -0.38% to 0.22%[1] - Housing services rose from 0.18% to 0.23%, with owner’s equivalent rent (OER) and rent price rent (RPR) at 0.28% and 0.26% respectively, returning to pre-pandemic levels[1] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the market narrative shifted to "moderate inflation → increased rate cut expectations → improved growth outlook," leading to a drop in 2-year Treasury yields to 3.72% and a rise in 10-year yields to 4.31%[1] - The dollar index fell below 98, while gold prices decreased, and U.S. stocks and silver prices increased[1] Rate Cut Expectations - Current market pricing suggests 2.4 rate cuts (61 basis points) for the year, but there is an anticipated adjustment of at least 11 basis points downward[1] - The optimistic scenario for rate cuts is two times (September and December), while the pessimistic scenario is one time (October)[1] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential overreach in Trump’s policies, excessive rate cuts leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, highlighting the impact of U.S.-China tariff negotiations and the introduction of new loan policies on market sentiment and investment strategies [3][6][8]. Group 1: Financial Market Conditions - The U.S.-China tariff truce has been extended for another 90 days, contributing to a continued rise in the stock market [6]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 114.6 billion, with a net withdrawal of 46.1 billion due to 160.7 billion reverse repos maturing [3]. - The overall funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with stable funding rates; DR001 is around 1.32% and DR007 is around 1.44% [4]. Group 2: Loan Policies and Market Reactions - New policies for interest subsidies on business loans and consumer loans were announced, leading to fluctuations in interest rates, which peaked at 1.7275% after the announcement [6][7]. - There is a notable concern regarding the use of loan funds, with warnings against using borrowed money for investment purposes [7]. Group 3: Employment and Industry Trends - The number of ride-hailing drivers in China has increased from 2.891 million in 2020 to 7.483 million in 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of 26.8%, while the average daily orders have significantly dropped from 23.3 to 10 [7]. - The article expresses a sentiment of uncertainty regarding career paths in the current economic climate, indicating that traditional job security is diminishing [8].

Core Insights - CVS Health is set to announce its earnings on July 31, 2025, with historical stock behavior around earnings releases being a key focus for event-driven traders [2] - The consensus estimate for CVS's upcoming earnings is $1.46 per share on revenue of $94.59 billion, indicating a decline in profitability compared to the previous year [4][5] - CVS Health currently has a market capitalization of $76 billion and generated $379 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, with operating profits of $11 billion and net income of $5.3 billion [5] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, CVS stock has shown a tendency toward positive one-day returns post-earnings, with 55% of instances resulting in a positive return and a median gain of 4.4% [3][10] - There have been 20 earnings data points recorded in the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day returns observed [6] - The percentage of positive returns increases to 58% when considering data from the last three years [10] Trading Strategies - Traders typically employ pre-earnings positioning, assessing historical probabilities before the earnings report, and post-earnings positioning, observing stock movements after the earnings release [7] - Understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can inform trading strategies, particularly if 1D and 5D returns show high correlation [8][9]

Group 1 - eBay is scheduled to report its earnings on July 30, 2025, with analysts projecting earnings of $1.30 per share on revenues of $2.64 billion, an increase from the previous year's earnings of $1.18 per share on sales of $2.57 billion [2][3] - Over the past five years, eBay's stock has shown a tendency toward negative one-day returns following earnings releases, with 65% of instances resulting in a median decline of -7.5% and a maximum drop of -11.7% [3][5] - The company currently has a market capitalization of $38 billion, generating $10 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, with operating profits of $2.3 billion and net income of $2.0 billion [4] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that eBay has recorded 17 earnings data points over the last five years, with 6 positive and 11 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 35% of the time [5][9] - Pre-earnings positioning strategies involve analyzing historical odds to establish a position before the earnings report, while post-earnings strategies involve observing immediate stock performance to inform subsequent trading decisions [6] - Correlation data between 1-day, 5-day, and 21-day returns post-earnings can help traders execute appropriate trades based on the highest correlation observed [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Stock index futures positions serve as a "certificate of strategy" for investors, transforming abstract strategies into concrete market participation [1][4] Group 1: Understanding Positions - For beginners, understanding positions is a crucial step in entering the market, involving cautious exploration during position building, dynamic observation during holding, and decisive execution during closing [1][3] - Experienced traders utilize positions to express nuanced market judgments, with different contracts reflecting short-term trends versus long-term views [1][3] - Adjusting positions reflects sensitivity to market changes, allowing for appropriate scaling of positions based on market alignment [1][3] Group 2: Risk Management and Strategy - A reasonable position size is central to risk management, balancing between excessive risk from over-leveraging and missed opportunities from under-leveraging [3] - The choice of holding period showcases the time dimension of strategies, with short-term focusing on intraday fluctuations and long-term on macro cycles [3] - Tracking historical performance of positions helps accumulate personalized operational experience, revealing individual strengths in trading styles [3] Group 3: Psychological Aspects - The process of holding positions also serves as a psychological training ground, fostering a stable trading mindset and rational judgment amidst market fluctuations [3][4] - Each position taken becomes a mark of growth, enhancing understanding of strategies and improving operational precision and stability [4]