全国快解放了，赶紧加入解放军，你所在的部队接下来就一定都能打胜仗吗？你就一定能立 功当英雄了吗？你就一定不会中弹牺牲了吗？ 牛市，上涨如坡，下跌如崖。整个牛市可能多 个崖，每个崖之后都继续新高；也可能只一个深崖。你半年的盈利累积，可能只需崖2天，就 丧失殆尽，甚至再倒贴。 你看看08年的半夜鸡叫，看看16年的熔断。 事实上2015年，很多人不但这么想了，还真就这么做了。 我曾说过，当时我在路上碰到一个 我的远房亲戚大妈，哼着小曲遛着狗。她笑呵呵地教我，开通融资融券账户，融资买，赚得 快又多。 一年后有一天，我看见他们夫妻俩使劲抡着大锤，汗流浃背地敲废弃水泥，取里面 的钢筋卖废品。 人们总是习惯于用后视镜去看历史，15年就是比照着0607年的大牛市，然而当你置身当前的 时候，你不可能有后视镜，历史只是相似而不会简单重复。530半夜鸡叫，你看到的是恢复并 创新高，当你认为又是一次530的时候，这次却是断崖了。 管理层看到已经是郁金香了，还上杠杆，一拍桌子搞出了断崖，又后悔拍桌子太重，想搞个 熔断缓解下跌速度，不料又是好心办坏事，直接检验连续熔断效果。 这个世界永远不变的，就是变化。你不可能知道下一刻是什么样，只能 ...

证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250813 过于乐观的降息预期——2025 年 7 月美国 CPI 数据点评 2025 年 08 月 13 日 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《预计 7 月贷款需求回落、社融增速 平稳增长》 2025-08-10 《美国 7 月 CPI 前瞻：商品价格抬升 或推动 CPI 环比走高》 2025-08-10 东吴证券研究所 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 宏观点评 图1：美国 CPI 主要分项环比增速 | 拉动率 | 权重 | 环比增速 | 2025/07 | 2025/06 | 2025/05 | 2025/04 | 2025/03 | 2025/02 | 2025/01 | 2024/1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, highlighting the impact of U.S.-China tariff negotiations and the introduction of new loan policies on market sentiment and investment strategies [3][6][8]. Group 1: Financial Market Conditions - The U.S.-China tariff truce has been extended for another 90 days, contributing to a continued rise in the stock market [6]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 114.6 billion, with a net withdrawal of 46.1 billion due to 160.7 billion reverse repos maturing [3]. - The overall funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with stable funding rates; DR001 is around 1.32% and DR007 is around 1.44% [4]. Group 2: Loan Policies and Market Reactions - New policies for interest subsidies on business loans and consumer loans were announced, leading to fluctuations in interest rates, which peaked at 1.7275% after the announcement [6][7]. - There is a notable concern regarding the use of loan funds, with warnings against using borrowed money for investment purposes [7]. Group 3: Employment and Industry Trends - The number of ride-hailing drivers in China has increased from 2.891 million in 2020 to 7.483 million in 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of 26.8%, while the average daily orders have significantly dropped from 23.3 to 10 [7]. - The article expresses a sentiment of uncertainty regarding career paths in the current economic climate, indicating that traditional job security is diminishing [8].

Group 1 - eBay is scheduled to report its earnings on July 30, 2025, with analysts projecting earnings of $1.30 per share on revenues of $2.64 billion, an increase from the previous year's earnings of $1.18 per share on sales of $2.57 billion [2][3] - Over the past five years, eBay's stock has shown a tendency toward negative one-day returns following earnings releases, with 65% of instances resulting in a median decline of -7.5% and a maximum drop of -11.7% [3][5] - The company currently has a market capitalization of $38 billion, generating $10 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, with operating profits of $2.3 billion and net income of $2.0 billion [4] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that eBay has recorded 17 earnings data points over the last five years, with 6 positive and 11 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 35% of the time [5][9] - Pre-earnings positioning strategies involve analyzing historical odds to establish a position before the earnings report, while post-earnings strategies involve observing immediate stock performance to inform subsequent trading decisions [6] - Correlation data between 1-day, 5-day, and 21-day returns post-earnings can help traders execute appropriate trades based on the highest correlation observed [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Stock index futures positions serve as a "certificate of strategy" for investors, transforming abstract strategies into concrete market participation [1][4] Group 1: Understanding Positions - For beginners, understanding positions is a crucial step in entering the market, involving cautious exploration during position building, dynamic observation during holding, and decisive execution during closing [1][3] - Experienced traders utilize positions to express nuanced market judgments, with different contracts reflecting short-term trends versus long-term views [1][3] - Adjusting positions reflects sensitivity to market changes, allowing for appropriate scaling of positions based on market alignment [1][3] Group 2: Risk Management and Strategy - A reasonable position size is central to risk management, balancing between excessive risk from over-leveraging and missed opportunities from under-leveraging [3] - The choice of holding period showcases the time dimension of strategies, with short-term focusing on intraday fluctuations and long-term on macro cycles [3] - Tracking historical performance of positions helps accumulate personalized operational experience, revealing individual strengths in trading styles [3] Group 3: Psychological Aspects - The process of holding positions also serves as a psychological training ground, fostering a stable trading mindset and rational judgment amidst market fluctuations [3][4] - Each position taken becomes a mark of growth, enhancing understanding of strategies and improving operational precision and stability [4]

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber and synthetic rubber markets are experiencing inventory accumulation and cautious sentiment from downstream enterprises, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term [1] Natural Rubber Market Analysis - Qingdao port's total inventory of natural rubber continues to accumulate, with a slight decrease in bonded warehouse inventory and a significant increase in general trade [1] - The overall inventory is increasing, and there is significant pressure to deplete it, with seasonal supply expectations adding to the fundamental pressure [1] - Overseas weather improvements are aiding rubber tapping operations, while domestic rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan is causing slow increases in raw material supply, keeping procurement prices firm [1] - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with downstream enterprises primarily focused on inventory digestion, leading to a wait-and-see approach in the latter half of the week [1] Synthetic Rubber Market Analysis - The macro environment is slightly positive, boosting market sentiment, but the market is expected to return to supply-demand fundamentals after the news impact diminishes [1] - In the butadiene market, synthetic rubber strength is uplifting market sentiment, but external export prices are low, leading to cautious buying from downstream [1] - The supply side of synthetic rubber shows a slight increase in polybutadiene rubber production, while demand from tire manufacturers remains stable [1] - There are no significant positive indicators in the fundamentals, leading to insufficient rebound in futures prices, with expectations of continued range-bound trading [1] Trading Strategies - For natural rubber, the accumulation at Qingdao port is putting upward pressure on futures prices, with expectations of short-term fluctuations [1] - Suggested strategies include cautious short positions at highs, with support levels for RU at 13400 - 13500 and resistance levels at 14100 - 14200; for NR, support at 11700 - 11800 and resistance at 12300 - 12400 [1] - For synthetic rubber, the macro environment is supportive, but the lack of positive fundamentals suggests a continuation of range-bound trading, with BR support levels at 10700 - 10800 and resistance at 11600 - 11700 [1]

Report Overview - The report is a financial futures morning newsletter released by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on June 20, 2025, covering the performance of A-share stock indexes, stock index futures, treasury bond futures, and related trading strategies [1][2] 1. Market Performance 1.1 A-share Stock Indexes - On June 19, the four major A-share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.79% to 3362.11 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.21% to 10051.97 points, the ChiNext Index declined 1.36% to 2026.82 points, and the STAR 50 Index decreased 0.54% to 962.94 points. Market turnover was 1280.9 billion yuan, an increase of 59.1 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, petroleum and petrochemicals (+0.86%) led the gains, while textile and apparel (-2.36%), beauty care (-2.28%), and light industry manufacturing (-1.96%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM, and the numbers of rising, flat, and falling stocks were 716, 56, and 4643 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of -19.6 billion, -19.8 billion, 4.4 billion, and 35 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -13.8 billion, -10.9 billion, +5.3 billion, and +19.5 billion yuan respectively [2] 1.2 Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 77.02, 59.43, 44.69, and 45.32 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -14.47%, -11.9%, -13.21%, and -19.32% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 15%, 11%, 1%, and 0% respectively. As the delivery date approaches, attention should be paid to the convergence of the futures - spot price difference [2] 1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - On June 19, the yields of treasury bond futures showed mixed trends. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.293, up 1.06 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.442, up 0.61 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.557, down 0.24 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.907, down 0.88 bps [3] 1.4 Cash Bonds - The current active contract is the 2509 contract. The CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures is 250006.IB, with a yield change of +0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.074, and an IRR of 1.85%; the CTD bond of the five - year treasury bond futures is 220027.IB, with a yield change of +0.13 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.08, and an IRR of 1.86%; the CTD bond of the ten - year treasury bond futures is 250007.IB, with a yield change of +0.2 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.084, and an IRR of 1.88%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year treasury bond futures is 210014.IB, with a yield change of -0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.061, and an IRR of 1.72% [4] 1.5 Short - term Capital Interest Rates - Short - term capital interest rates have shown little change recently. SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one - week, and DR007 have remained relatively stable compared to the previous day, one week ago, and one month ago [12] 2. Trading Strategies 2.1 Stock Index Futures - In the short term, due to the deep discount of small - cap stock indexes, which is presumably due to the expansion of the scale of neutral products this year and the relatively high proportion of short positions in neutral products, the deep discount may continue, leading to market fluctuations. A short - cycle band strategy is recommended. In the medium - to - long term, a bullish view on the economy is maintained. It is recommended to allocate IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips. For near - month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro - caps, which may drag down the IC and IM indexes, so caution is advised [3] 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The cash bond market currently shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but this pattern is expected to change. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of short - term long and long - term short. Short - term, buy T and TL on dips; long - term, hedge T and TL on rallies [5] 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recent social activities and real - estate market sentiment have contracted [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always a mistake [1] - Gold prices have been significantly influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the situation in Iran, leading to a substantial increase in prices last week [1][3] - Current gold prices are fluctuating around the 3400 mark, with critical resistance and support levels identified at 3365 and 3450-55 respectively [3] Group 2 - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on the 3420-15 area, with potential for a rebound if this level holds [3] - If gold prices break below the 3400-05 range, further declines to 3385-75 and 3365-55 are anticipated before considering a bullish outlook [3] - The outlook for gold remains bullish as long as geopolitical tensions persist, with potential targets set at 3470-75 and 3500 if upward momentum continues [3]

【今日美豆震荡，国内豆类市场多面博弈】今日，美豆盘面震荡运行，变化有限。国内豆粕盘面先跌后 反弹，宏观影响减弱后，市场关注后续供应紧张；菜粕盘面明显走强，前期反弹后修复性上涨。豆粕和 菜粕月间价差均偏强，源于市场对后续供应的担忧。 基本面来看，截至6月5日当周，美豆新作优良率 达68%，旧作出口检验量54.7万吨，处历史同期高位。4月美豆压榨量550.8万吨，环比降2.03%，近期压 榨利润走弱，后续生柴政策或调整。美豆旧作基本面仍偏利好。 巴西方面，此前农户卖货进度先加快 后放缓，总体进度偏低，价格压力显现。3月巴西大豆压榨量516万吨，近期下降，因中国买船多，国内 压榨利润弱，预计出口将上调。 阿根廷油厂停工，后续国内压榨增速或放缓，终端产品价格企稳，大 豆出口可能增加。国际市场大豆供应压力集中在南美，出口压力较大。 国内现货偏宽松，油厂开机率 增加，供应充足，提货量上升，库存累积，成交一般。截至6月6日，油厂大豆压榨量224.46万吨，开机 率63.1%，大豆库存610.29万吨，较上周增4.7%。豆粕库存38.25万吨，较上周增28.36%。 国内菜粕需求 转弱，油厂开机率下降，但供应仍足，预计偏震荡 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always a mistake [1] - The gold market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with a support level identified at 3316 and a resistance level at 3350, indicating potential trading strategies based on these levels [2][4] - The analysis of silver suggests maintaining a bearish strategy, with key resistance levels identified at 37, 37.6, and 38.1, while also noting the potential for extreme bullish movements [4] Group 2 - The upcoming US CPI data is expected to maintain the current market volatility, with significant attention on the 3365 resistance level, which is crucial for potential market movements [2] - A downward movement in gold prices is anticipated, with critical support levels identified between 3320-16, and a potential breakdown below 3300 could indicate further bearish sentiment [4] - The analysis of futures for gold and silver indicates a bearish outlook, with specific price levels for short positions highlighted, suggesting a cautious approach to trading in the current market environment [4]