Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After experiencing high - level fluctuations in September, the stock index will enter a direction - selection phase again. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents are likely to increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cut and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme of the upward market trend, considering the expected increase in pro - growth policies in the fourth quarter and the possible resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style may return to value in the fourth quarter and be more balanced than in the third quarter [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) decreased compared to the day before yesterday, with decreases of 20.80, 21.20, 20.20, and 20.40 respectively. The trading volumes were 21714.00, 65140.00, 8023.00, and 2057.00, and the positions were 38677.00, 151558.00, 55037.00, and 4041.00 respectively. The position changes were - 3011.00, - 6000.00, - 1150.00, and 708.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts decreased slightly, with decreases of 3.80, 1.80, 2.80, and 1.80. The trading volumes were 11040.00, 31434.00, 3566.00, and 1049.00, and the positions were 14291.00, 59769.00, 13098.00, and 1315.00 respectively. The position changes were - 219.00, - 2561.00, - 338.00, and 283.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts decreased significantly, with decreases of 57.80, 56.20, 55.20, and 39.20. The trading volumes were 23265.00, 68879.00, 12798.00, and 4297.00, and the positions were 45760.00, 131680.00, 51376.00, and 7623.00 respectively. The position changes were - 4745.00, - 8301.00, - 643.00, and 1052.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with decreases of 35.80, 36.20, 35.40, and 34.60. The trading volumes were 35068.00, 120919.00, 18115.00, and 8259.00, and the positions were 68005.00, 180451.00, 78082.00, and 15098.00 respectively. The position changes were - 4046.00, - 10035.00, - 2049.00, and 2464.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month were - 10.60, 2.00, - 53.40, and - 74.00 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 11.00, 0.60, - 56.00, and - 78.20 [1] II. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes changed, with the CSI 300 down 0.33%, the SSE 50 up 0.09%, the CSI 500 down 0.80%, and the CSI 1000 down 0.43%. The trading volumes and total trading amounts also changed [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the energy, telecommunications, and utilities sectors had positive growth rates of 0.63%, 0.02%, and 0.31% respectively, while the raw materials, industrial, and pharmaceutical sectors had negative growth rates of - 0.99%, - 0.86%, and - 0.95% respectively [1] III. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis differences between futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) and their corresponding spot indexes (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) showed certain changes compared with the day before yesterday [1] IV. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all had positive growth rates of 1.36%, 2.06%, 2.13%, and 3.02% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, and DAX Index had positive growth rates of 0.65%, 3.37%, and 0.29% respectively, while the S&P 500 had no change [1] V. Macro Information - US President Trump expressed his expectation to reach a good trade agreement with Chinese leaders during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting next week, but also mentioned that the meeting might be cancelled. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that head - of - state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic leading role in Sino - US relations, and there is currently no information to provide on the specific issue [2] - The Asset Management Association of China is about to release a draft for soliciting opinions on the performance comparison benchmark rules for public funds. Multiple fund managers, mainly leading ones, have submitted a batch of indexes intended as performance comparison benchmarks, covering various types such as broad - based, industry, and style. However, the regulatory authorities are relatively cautious about the number of indexes entering the actual benchmark library [2] - Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao met with Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury to discuss Airbus' cooperation with China. Wang emphasized that Airbus should continue to strengthen cooperation with China based on the commissioning of the second A320 final assembly line in Tianjin. China will continue to play the role of the round - table meeting for foreign - funded enterprises to help solve problems and concerns in Airbus' development and operation in China [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics released the unemployment rate data for different age groups in September. The unemployment rate of the urban labor force aged 16 - 24 was 17.7%, 7.2% for those aged 25 - 29, and 3.9% for those aged 30 - 59 [2] VI. Industry Information - The "Energy - Saving and New - Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" was officially released, proposing that by 2040, the penetration rate of new - energy passenger vehicles will reach over 85%, with BEV accounting for 80%. L4 - level intelligent and connected vehicles will be fully popularized, and L5 - level intelligent and connected vehicles will start to enter the market [2] - The National Press and Publication Administration announced the game version numbers for October, with 159 domestic games and 7 imported games approved. The number of approvals was at a high level this year, second only to 173 in August. Many well - known game companies such as Tencent, Zhongqingbao, and 37 Interactive Entertainment had new games on the list [2] - Chinese Deputy Minister of Natural Resources Sun Shuxian said that the total output value of China's geographic information industry in 2025 will increase to nearly one trillion yuan. China will strengthen the construction of spatio - temporal information infrastructure, consolidate the data resource base, and prioritize the opening of data resources closely related to people's livelihood and in urgent social demand to the public [2] - According to data from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, in the first three quarters, the total transport turnover, passenger volume, and cargo volume of the civil aviation industry were 1220.3 billion ton - kilometers, 580 million passengers, and 739500 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.3%, 5.2%, and 14% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the construction of a new development pattern in China, highlighting the growth of the futures market and the performance of key commodities such as stock indices, precious metals, and copper [1][2][3]. Futures Market Overview - As of October 9, 2025, the total funds in China's futures market reached approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [1]. - Client equity in futures companies totaled about 1.91 trillion yuan, also reflecting a 24% growth from the end of 2024 [1]. Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the previous trading day seeing a slight recovery led by the communication sector, while the non-ferrous metals sector lagged [2]. - The market turnover was 1.75 trillion yuan, and as of October 17, the financing balance decreased by 27.3 billion yuan to 2.412835 trillion yuan [2]. - The article suggests that the stock indices are entering a phase of directional choice, with domestic liquidity expected to remain loose and external funds likely to flow into the domestic market due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and RMB appreciation [2]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have been strong, although recent upward momentum has slowed [3]. - The article notes that central banks are increasing gold reserves amid rising global tensions and distrust in the financial system, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Silver's supply-demand imbalance is highlighted, with potential for increased volatility following rapid price increases [3]. Copper Market - Copper prices rose in the night session, supported by tight concentrate supply and high smelting output [3][20]. - The article mentions that investment in the power grid continues to grow, while real estate remains weak, impacting overall demand for copper [20]. - The potential for a global copper supply gap due to mining issues in Indonesia is expected to support copper prices in the long term [20]. Key Commodities Performance - The article provides insights into various commodities, including palm oil, corn, and lithium carbonate, indicating mixed performance and market dynamics influenced by external factors such as trade tensions and supply chain issues [5][22][28]. International and Domestic News - The U.S. and Australia signed an agreement to enhance the production of rare earths and critical minerals, with over $3 billion planned for investment in key mineral projects [6]. - China's LPR remained unchanged for five consecutive months, reflecting stable policy rates and potential for further monetary easing in response to economic conditions [7]. Industry Developments - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced the listing of new futures contracts for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene, expanding the range of tradable products [8]. Market Trends - The article notes that the market is currently cautious, with a focus on upcoming trade talks and the potential impact of U.S. fiscal policies on global markets [3][19]. - The overall sentiment in the commodities market is influenced by macroeconomic factors, including inflation expectations and geopolitical developments [3][19].