1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again. The domestic liquidity environment is likely to remain loose, and domestic residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cuts and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme of the current upward market trend, considering the possible intensification of Q4 growth - stabilization policies and the potential resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4519.80, 4506.80, 4482.00, and 4447.20 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4588.60, 4577.60, 4550.20, and 4515.00 respectively. The price increases were 71.00, 73.40, 71.20, and 71.00 respectively, and the corresponding price increase rates of the CSI 300 were 1.57, 1.63, 1.59, and 1.60. The trading volumes were 29776.00, 77133.00, 12638.00, and 2919.00 respectively, and the open interests were 41688.00, 157558.00, 56187.00, and 3333.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were 1009.00, 1159.00, - 780.00, and - 73.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IH contracts were 2972.00, 2970.40, 2972.00, and 2969.80 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 3004.20, 3004.80, 3005.60, and 3004.00 respectively. The price increases were 33.00, 35.20, 35.20, and 35.20 respectively, and the corresponding price increase rates of the SSE 50 were 1.11, 1.19, 1.19, and 1.19. The trading volumes were 12905.00, 35150.00, 4265.00, and 1113.00 respectively, and the open interests were 14510.00, 62330.00, 13436.00, and 1032.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were - 484.00, 1866.00, - 42.00, and 76.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IC contracts were 6972.00, 6909.20, 6747.40, and 6567.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 7108.80, 7052.80, 6886.20, and 6709.80 respectively. The price increases were 138.40, 144.00, 140.40, and 145.40 respectively, and the corresponding price increase rates of the CSI 500 were 1.99, 2.08, 2.08, and 2.22. The trading volumes were 33289.00, 89215.00, 17433.00, and 5710.00 respectively, and the open interests were 50505.00, 139981.00, 52019.00, and 6571.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were 1557.00, 4488.00, - 549.00, and 364.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IM contracts were 7137.60, 7059.20, 6841.60, and 6637.40 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 7261.00, 7182.80, 6966.80, and 6753.60 respectively. The price increases were 126.40, 129.40, 130.20, and 126.40 respectively, and the corresponding price increase rates of the CSI 1000 were 1.77, 1.83, 1.90, and 1.91. The trading volumes were 44744.00, 151318.00, 26613.00, and 10398.00 respectively, and the open interests were 72051.00, 190486.00, 80131.00, and 12634.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were 985.00, 832.00, - 2419.00, and 1567.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 11.00, 0.60, - 56.00, and - 78.20 respectively, while the previous values were - 13.00, - 1.60, - 62.80, and - 78.40 respectively [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 300 index was 4607.87, with a trading volume of 215.71 billion lots and a total trading value of 5513.90 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 4538.22, with a trading volume of 218.42 billion lots and a total trading value of 5057.99 billion yuan. The price increase rate was 1.53 [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value of the SSE 50 index was 3007.26, with a trading volume of 55.30 billion lots and a total trading value of 1472.70 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 2974.86, with a trading volume of 53.18 billion lots and a total trading value of 1283.62 billion yuan. The price increase rate was 1.09 [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 500 index was 7185.62, with a trading volume of 205.97 billion lots and a total trading value of 3449.91 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 7069.64, with a trading volume of 176.83 billion lots and a total trading value of 3146.75 billion yuan. The price increase rate was 1.64 [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 1000 index was 7344.05, with a trading volume of 237.25 billion lots and a total trading value of 3481.59 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 7239.18, with a trading volume of 218.58 billion lots and a total trading value of 3284.45 billion yuan. The price increase rate was 1.45 [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries in the CSI 300 had different price increase rates. For example, the price increase rates of energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption were - 0.58%, 1.10%, 1.53%, and 0.60% respectively; the price increase rates of major consumption, medical and health, real - estate and finance, and information technology were 0.16%, 0.97%, 0.52%, and 3.74% respectively; the price increase rates of telecommunications services and public utilities were 5.72% and - 0.36% respectively [1] 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - **CSI 300 - related Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, far - quarter) and the CSI 300 were - 19.27, - 30.27, - 57.67, and - 92.87 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 18.42, - 31.42, - 56.22, and - 91.02 respectively [1] - **SSE 50 - related Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, far - quarter) and the SSE 50 were - 3.06, - 2.46, - 1.66, and - 3.26 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 2.86, - 4.46, - 2.86, and - 5.06 respectively [1] - **CSI 500 - related Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, far - quarter) and the CSI 500 were - 76.82, - 132.82, - 299.42, and - 475.82 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 97.64, - 160.44, - 322.24, and - 502.64 respectively [1] - **CSI 1000 - related Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, far - quarter) and the CSI 1000 were - 83.05, - 161.25, - 377.25, and - 590.45 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 101.58, - 179.98, - 397.58, and - 601.78 respectively [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Main Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3916.33, 13077.32, 8038.31, and 3083.72 respectively. The previous two - day values were 3863.89, 12813.21, 7870.96, and 2993.45 respectively. The price increase rates were 1.36%, 2.06%, 2.13%, and 3.02% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26027.55, 49185.50, 6735.35, and 24330.03 respectively. The previous two - day values were 25858.83, 47582.15, 6735.13, and 24258.80 respectively. The price increase rates were 0.65%, 3.37%, 0.00%, and 0.29% respectively [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - US President Trump said he would visit China early next year. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman responded that no information could be provided for the time being [2] - Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao held a video conference with EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Valdis Dombrovskis, discussing key China - EU economic and trade issues such as export controls and the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles. He also had a phone call with Dutch Minister of Economic Affairs Micky Adriaansens, discussing issues related to Nexperia. Wang stated that China's recent measures on rare - earth export controls were normal actions to improve the export control system in accordance with laws and regulations, and urged the Dutch side to resolve issues related to Nexperia properly [2] - The Ministry of Commerce held a policy - interpretation round - table meeting for foreign - invested enterprises, with over 170 representatives of foreign - invested enterprises and foreign business associations in China attending. Deputy Minister of Commerce Ling Ji emphasized that China's export controls were responsible actions to maintain world peace and regional security and stability and fulfill non - proliferation obligations, while also approving compliant trade in accordance with laws to maintain the stability of the global industrial and supply chains [2] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism released data showing that in the first three quarters, the number of domestic tourist trips was 4.998 billion, an increase of 0.761 billion year - on - year, representing a growth rate of 18%. The domestic tourism consumption was 4.85 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.5% [2] 3.6 Industry Information - The National Medical Products Administration will further improve the legal and standard systems, increase support for R & D innovation, improve the quality and efficiency of review and approval, strengthen the safety bottom - line for high - level medical devices, accelerate the launch of innovative products, and promote the innovative and high - quality development of the medical device industry [2] - As of the end of June 2025, the total asset management scale of China's trust industry reached 32.43 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.11%. This was the first time that China's trust scale exceeded 30 trillion yuan, ranking third after insurance asset management and public funds in terms of asset scale [2] - Guangzhou announced a new blueprint for future industries, planning to develop six core future industries, including intelligent unmanned systems, embodied intelligence, cell and gene technology, future networks and quantum technology, advanced new materials, and deep - sea and deep - space exploration [2] - Shanghai issued an action plan to promote the high - quality development of the construction industry, proposing 21 specific measures in eight aspects, such as encouraging the integration of homogeneous businesses of construction enterprises, building a new model for real - estate development, and accelerating urban renewal [2] 3.7 Stock Index Views - The three major US stock indexes showed mixed performance. In the previous trading day, the stock index rose significantly, with the communication and electronics sectors leading the gains and the coal sector leading the losses. The market trading volume was 1.89 trillion yuan. On October 20, the margin trading balance increased by 396 million yuan to 2.413231 trillion yuan. The volatile situation of China - US tariffs has led to frequent shifts between long and short positions in the stock index. Meanwhile, during the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd, market funds were relatively cautious [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the construction of a new development pattern in China, highlighting the growth of the futures market and the performance of key commodities such as stock indices, precious metals, and copper [1][2][3]. Futures Market Overview - As of October 9, 2025, the total funds in China's futures market reached approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [1]. - Client equity in futures companies totaled about 1.91 trillion yuan, also reflecting a 24% growth from the end of 2024 [1]. Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the previous trading day seeing a slight recovery led by the communication sector, while the non-ferrous metals sector lagged [2]. - The market turnover was 1.75 trillion yuan, and as of October 17, the financing balance decreased by 27.3 billion yuan to 2.412835 trillion yuan [2]. - The article suggests that the stock indices are entering a phase of directional choice, with domestic liquidity expected to remain loose and external funds likely to flow into the domestic market due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and RMB appreciation [2]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have been strong, although recent upward momentum has slowed [3]. - The article notes that central banks are increasing gold reserves amid rising global tensions and distrust in the financial system, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Silver's supply-demand imbalance is highlighted, with potential for increased volatility following rapid price increases [3]. Copper Market - Copper prices rose in the night session, supported by tight concentrate supply and high smelting output [3][20]. - The article mentions that investment in the power grid continues to grow, while real estate remains weak, impacting overall demand for copper [20]. - The potential for a global copper supply gap due to mining issues in Indonesia is expected to support copper prices in the long term [20]. Key Commodities Performance - The article provides insights into various commodities, including palm oil, corn, and lithium carbonate, indicating mixed performance and market dynamics influenced by external factors such as trade tensions and supply chain issues [5][22][28]. International and Domestic News - The U.S. and Australia signed an agreement to enhance the production of rare earths and critical minerals, with over $3 billion planned for investment in key mineral projects [6]. - China's LPR remained unchanged for five consecutive months, reflecting stable policy rates and potential for further monetary easing in response to economic conditions [7]. Industry Developments - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced the listing of new futures contracts for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene, expanding the range of tradable products [8]. Market Trends - The article notes that the market is currently cautious, with a focus on upcoming trade talks and the potential impact of U.S. fiscal policies on global markets [3][19]. - The overall sentiment in the commodities market is influenced by macroeconomic factors, including inflation expectations and geopolitical developments [3][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a "Bullish" or "Bearish" view for various commodities, with "Bullish" for corn, cotton, apple, zinc, silver, gold, iron ore, hot-rolled coil, rebar, and "Bearish" for crude oil, treasury bonds (T), treasury bonds (TL), and stock index (IM) [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade concerns have eased, with US stock futures opening higher, S&P 500 futures up 1.1%, and Nasdaq futures up 1.4%. Brent crude futures rose more than 1% at the start, and cryptocurrencies rebounded on Sunday, with Ethereum up more than 10% overnight. Copper in New York rose more than 2% at the start of Asian trading on Monday [1] - After a high-level oscillation in September, the stock index is likely to enter a direction - selection phase again and maintain a bullish trend. In the short term, affected by Sino - US trade, market volatility may increase. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [2][13] - Gold may benefit from the resurgence of the trade war. Central banks around the world are continuously increasing their gold holdings, and investors' recognition of gold as a safe - haven and value - storage asset is rising [3][22] - The resurgence of the Sino - US trade war has led to a decline in oil prices. In the short term, oil prices tend to break downward. However, there is still a possibility of trade friction mitigation, and low oil prices may cause OPEC to slow down production increases [4][5][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Main News Concerns 3.1.1 International News - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) on October 24 at 8:30 am Eastern Time (20:30 Beijing time) [7] 3.1.2 Domestic News - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have implemented export controls on relevant rare - earth items, which is a proper measure to improve the export control system [8] 3.1.3 Industry News - In September, China's Small and Medium - Sized Enterprise Development Index (SMEDI) was 89.0, down 0.1 point from August but higher than the same period last year. Some sub - indexes showed a stable and positive development trend [9][10] 3.2 Outer - Market Daily Earnings - From October 9 to 10, major outer - market indexes such as the S&P 500, European STOXX50, and FTSE China A50 futures declined. The US dollar index also fell, while gold and silver prices rose. ICE Brent crude oil fell 4.81% [11] 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is likely to maintain a bullish trend. In the short term, trade issues may increase market volatility. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [2][13] - **Treasury Bonds**: Affected by US trade remarks, treasury bond yields have declined, and treasury bond futures prices are expected to remain strong until the end of October. The central bank may implement more relaxed monetary policies in the fourth quarter [15] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Sino - US trade war has led to a decline in oil prices. Trade friction affects oil prices through supply - chain disruption and risk - asset selling. In the short term, oil prices tend to break downward [4][5][16] - **Methanol**: The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants has increased, and coastal methanol inventories are rising. Methanol is short - term bearish [17] - **Rubber**: The natural rubber futures rebounded slightly last week. Supply pressure may increase later, and the demand support is limited. The post - holiday trend of Shanghai rubber is expected to be oscillating and bullish [18] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures are running weakly. Prices are affected by cost fluctuations and market sentiment is cautious [19][20] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continue to be weak, and soda ash futures closed down. The market is waiting for autumn consumption to digest inventory and for policy changes [21] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold may benefit from the resurgence of the trade war. Central banks' gold - buying and investors' recognition of gold as a safe - haven asset support its price [3][22] - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded in the morning. The supply of concentrates has been tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, supporting the copper price in the long term [23] - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell due to the decline in the copper price. The smelting output is expected to increase, and the domestic zinc price may be weaker than the foreign price [24] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has increased, demand is in the peak season, and inventory is decreasing. The lithium salt price is supported, and there is an expectation of project resumption [25][26] 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures were weak on Friday night. The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. The short - term price may fluctuate sharply [27] - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills' production enthusiasm is high, iron ore demand is supported, and global iron ore shipments have decreased. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [28] - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The market supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be bullish in the medium term, with hot - rolled coil stronger than rebar [29] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The bean and rapeseed meal oscillated weakly at night. The USDA report is expected to lower the US soybean yield, but the report is postponed. The domestic market is well - supplied, and the market is expected to oscillate [30] - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats were weak at night. The MPOB report showed an increase in palm oil inventory, which may put short - term pressure on prices. In the long term, prices are expected to rise [31][32] - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation phase, and the domestic market is affected by new - season sugar production and import pressure. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [33] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fell. The domestic cotton market is affected by new - cotton supply and weak downstream demand. The price is expected to be oscillating and bearish [34] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated downward. The off - season trading may have ended, and the near - term market will enter a game for the year - end peak season. The short - term peak - season expectation may weaken due to the trade war, and the far - term market is affected by the Red Sea resumption progress [35]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the easing of trade concerns, with positive movements in stock futures and commodities, while highlighting the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions on various markets [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Indices - U.S. stock futures opened higher, with the S&P 500 futures up 1.1% and Nasdaq futures up 1.4% [1]. - The market experienced a significant pullback due to escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, with a trading volume of 2.53 trillion yuan [2]. - The financing balance increased by 50.8 billion yuan to 2.429195 trillion yuan, indicating a potential shift towards a bullish trend despite short-term volatility [2][12]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a new high, surpassing $4,060 per ounce, driven by renewed trade tensions and a lack of pressure from traditional bearish factors [3][20]. - Central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, reflecting a growing recognition of gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising global tensions [3][20]. Group 3: Oil Market - Oil prices fell approximately 4% following the announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, indicating the significant impact of trade tensions on global supply chains [4][14]. - The trade war is expected to disrupt supply chain efficiency, leading to reduced demand for oil and petrochemical products [4][15]. - Market sentiment has shifted towards safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar, resulting in a potential downward trend for oil prices [4][15]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on rare earths, emphasizing the need for dialogue with the U.S. to resolve trade issues [1][8]. - The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Index (SMEDI) in China showed a slight decline to 89.0 in September, indicating challenges amid a complex external environment [9].