更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 有色 | 强预期弱现实将延续 20260104 摘要 2026 年宏观环境对商品市场友好,流动性宽松、通胀粘性及经济复苏将 推动需求,美元走弱,多种商品短缺,应重视行情,急调时关注基本面变 化。 要加海 手调研究要和海尔独伦 1 争 狗 - 美联储降息预期及结束缩表后的短债购买增强流动性预期,金融条件指数 . 走强,投机盘主动进攻,非商业头寸多单显著增加,为白银逼仓创造条件。 全球白银可支配库存约为 1.2 万吨,投机盘净多单超 1 万吨, 叠加 ETF ● 浄流入,导致交割困难,12月交割月对手盘较多,逼仓或不可避免。 逼仓结束时间点预计在交割月结束或 1 月彭博商品指数调整带来技术性 ● 抛压时,短期或有约 2000 吨白银抛售,但中长期流动性宽松及库存短缺, 调整后是配置机会。 宏观环境利好贵金属,流动性宽松可能加剧,可支配库存或持续短缺,金 ● 银比尚未修复至历史正常水平,预计 2026年自银仍有上行空间。 电解铝供需格局优于铜,供给维持高位,下游需求强劲,无明显累座,吨 . 铝净利润持续走阔，去乘价格有望冲击 24,000 至 25,000 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant supply shortage in the copper market, leading to a record high spot premium over futures prices, indicating a severe squeeze in the market [1][2] - The spot copper premium reached $280 per ton, the highest level since the record surge in 2021, reflecting a drastic change from six months ago when short-term contracts were trading at a discount [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has seen its available copper inventory drop by approximately 80% this year, now equivalent to less than a day's global usage, primarily due to a rush to ship copper to the U.S. to avoid potential import tariffs [1] Group 2 - Despite a recent slowdown in copper demand, inventory continues to tighten due to tariff impacts, leading to a competitive rush to transport copper to the U.S., causing supply shortages in other regions [2] - The LME has implemented measures to prevent individual traders from holding excessive short-term positions that could lead to spot premiums, but these measures have shown limited effectiveness in the copper market [2] - Recent trading data indicates that the copper market is experiencing deeper pressures, with significant price movements not solely influenced by any single large trader, suggesting a broader market dynamic at play [2]

Core Viewpoint - Rite Aid's inability to recover successfully and its return to bankruptcy protection is attributed to inventory shortages and changes in consumer behavior, particularly among lower-income shoppers [1][5]. Inventory Issues - The inventory problems arose from unexpected financial constraints, with Rite Aid planning to access approximately $166 million from credit facilities post-bankruptcy, but lenders delayed or withdrew commitments [2]. - Only one loan of $66.75 million was secured, described as insufficient and received too late to replenish inventory for the holiday shopping season [3]. Vendor Relations - Rite Aid's post-emergence business plan relied on vendors returning to less restrictive payment terms, but many vendors refused to ease terms [4]. Consumer Behavior - The company noted a shift in consumer behavior, with lower-income shoppers opting for household goods from more affordable retailers, impacting sales [5]. - Research indicates that during economic distress, a significant majority of shoppers alter their purchasing behaviors, with only 16% stating that inflation did not affect their consumption [6]. Importance of Stocking - Keeping non-pharmacy sections stocked is critical for customer retention, as many purchases are impulse-driven [7]. - The combined pressures from inventory shortages and changing consumer behavior led to a negative trajectory, prompting Rite Aid to file for Chapter 11 protection again [7].