Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a strong upward trend, with the Hang Seng Technology Index leading the gains at 2.53%, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.37% to reclaim the 26,500-point mark, and the National Enterprises Index increased by 1.64% [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks drove the market higher, with Alibaba surging over 9% following the announcement of a Physical AI collaboration with NVIDIA. Other notable gainers included Kuaishou and JD.com, both rising nearly 4%, Xiaomi up 2.6%, Tencent increasing by 2%, and Meituan gaining over 1% [1] - Semiconductor stocks remained strong due to price increases and domestic production drives, with leading company SMIC reaching a new historical high during trading [1] - AI concept stocks and application software stocks showed active performance, alongside gains in military, home appliance, photovoltaic, gaming, and lithium battery sectors [1] Declining Sectors - Conversely, cryptocurrency concept stocks and biopharmaceutical stocks faced significant declines, with paper, heavy machinery, gold, building materials, and coal stocks also showing collective weakness. Additionally, over 20 stocks in the market recorded declines of more than 10% [1]

Investment Focus - The market has entered a second phase of broad consolidation, with heightened volatility risks in micro-caps, new consumption, and innovative pharma sectors [1][8] - The Hang Seng Index dropped 1.5% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.0%, while A-shares also experienced declines [1][8] - Liquidity in the tech sector has been diverted towards innovative pharma and new consumption, but both sectors saw notable pullbacks this week [1][8] Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The sustainability of rallies in new consumption and innovative pharma depends on continued HKD liquidity and steady southbound inflows [2][9] - Recent pullbacks in innovative pharma have increased the AH premium from a 10-year average of 136 to 139, indicating H-shares are underperforming A-shares [2][9] - The liquidity in the Hong Kong market is tightening, influenced by large IPOs and upcoming listings [2][9] Southbound Capital Flows - This week saw a net inflow of HKD 16.3 billion, but only HKD 4.2 billion flowed in during the last three trading days of market decline [3][10] - Significant selling pressure was observed in Pop Mart, with HKD 1.8 billion sold, nearly erasing the past month's inflows [3][10] - Southbound capital mainly flowed into banks, healthcare, and consumer services, with limited outflows in communication services [3][10] A-Shares Performance - The liquor index rebounded 2.7% this week, supported by favorable media commentary, but the overall downtrend remains unaltered [4][11] - The banking sector continued to perform well, rising 2.6%, which helped stabilize large-cap defensives [4][11] - Micro-caps fell 2.2%, underperforming the broader market but still remain at elevated levels [4][11] Market Outlook - The broad consolidation pattern in the market is expected to continue, with high-flying sectors like micro-caps, new consumption, and innovative pharma yet to fully deflate [4][12] - The expiration of the 90-day tariff grace period on July 9 may lead to renewed pressure from U.S.-China negotiations [4][12] - Investors are advised to wait for better entry points, particularly near 21,000 on the Hang Seng Index and 3,200 on the Shanghai Composite [4][12] Short-Term Market Sentiment - Recent U.S. military actions against Iran may extend market downward momentum early next week [5][13] - If the market declines to key support levels, a bottoming rebound may occur [5][13] - The tech sector, after sufficient pullback, is believed to hold stronger rebound potential, particularly in edge AI and application software [5][13]