资金面角度，重仓海外算力链的主动权益型基金目前调仓程度并不会对海外算力链龙头产生较大影 响。在不发生调仓的情况下，截止2025/9/18，25Q2重仓海外算力龙头比例大于40%、且较25Q1增配超 过20%的21只主动股基合计对海外算力龙头持仓金额约79.31亿元，25Q2重仓海外算力龙头比例20- 40%、且较25Q1增配超过20%的50只主动股基合计持仓金额114.48亿元，两者合计占海外算力指数成份 股流通市值不足1%。 自8月25日后，重仓海外算力主动股基池的日度回报波动率上升。一方面，重仓海外算力主动股基 日度回报与海外算力指数涨跌幅相关性均值自6月以来呈上升趋势，9月基金池内产品走势与海外算力指 数一致性甚至进一步上升。另一方面，该行发现海外算力指数成份股的日涨跌幅标准差在9月与基金池 内产品回报的波动率同步上升，至少可以解释一部分分歧的原因。 以沪深300代替除海外算力链龙头的其余持仓，根据海外算力链龙头各自持仓比例、沪深300持仓比 例对各基金理论收益率进行估算，可以一定程度消除由于持仓海外算力链环节的差异而导致的回报分 歧。 智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研报称，目前市场对主线海外算力链有 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights an increase in the daily return volatility of actively managed equity funds heavily invested in overseas computing power since August 25, indicating a rising correlation with the overseas computing power index since June [1][22][23] - The report suggests that the adjustment level of actively managed equity funds focused on overseas computing power chains will not significantly impact the leading companies in this sector [1][24] - The report identifies a divergence in market views on the main overseas computing power chain, with a notable increase in investment during the Q2 pullback period [1][22][23] Group 2 - The report indicates that the sentiment indicators based on the number of consecutive limit-up stocks and promotion rates are crucial for assessing short-term market sentiment [2][25][26] - In a bull market, the average consecutive limit-up stocks can maintain around 6, with promotion rates typically above 25%, showing a strong positive correlation with the next-day performance of limit-up stocks [2][25][26] - The report notes that certain sectors, such as photolithography machines and AI-related industries, are currently performing strongly, driven by policy support and technological advancements [2][27][28] Group 3 - The report on the construction materials sector suggests that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may benefit undervalued construction material stocks, particularly in the Xinjiang region [18][21][22] - The report emphasizes the expected increase in demand for cement due to major infrastructure projects in Xinjiang, with significant growth in fixed asset investment [18][21][22] - Key companies to watch in the construction materials sector include Qingsong Construction and Tianshan Shares, which are expected to benefit from these trends [18][21][22] Group 4 - The report on the computer industry discusses the emergence of AI agents and their potential to reshape the software payment landscape in China, with a focus on cost reduction and high ROI applications [17][21][22] - It highlights that the gap between domestic and international AI capabilities is expected to narrow by Q4 2024, with several Chinese companies launching competitive products [17][21][22] - The report anticipates a significant transformation in the white-collar labor market due to the empowerment of AI agents across various industries [17][21][22] Group 5 - The report on Zhongtian Technology indicates a positive trend in Q2 performance, with revenue growth of 10.19% year-on-year and a notable increase in net profit [36][37] - The company is expanding its presence in the AI sector and has several significant projects in the pipeline, particularly in offshore wind power [36][37] - The report projects a strong future growth trajectory supported by a robust order backlog in the energy network sector [36][37]

Group 1 - The electronic ETF (515260) focusing on "semiconductors + consumer electronics + PCB" has seen a strong performance, with a peak increase of over 3.7% and currently up 2.38%, reaching a new high since its listing [1] - In the semiconductor sector, companies like SMIC have surged over 13%, while others like Rockchip and Cambricon have increased by more than 8% and 6% respectively [1] - The electronic sector has attracted significant capital inflow, with a net inflow of 13.5 billion yuan, and over the past 5 and 20 days, it has accumulated 83.1 billion yuan and 206.6 billion yuan respectively, leading all 31 first-level industries in the Shenwan classification [1] Group 2 - The total market capitalization of the electronic industry has surpassed that of the banking sector for the first time, reaching 11.54 trillion yuan as of August 22 [1] - As of August 27, among the 50 constituent stocks of the electronic ETF, 35 have disclosed their semi-annual reports, with 23 reporting positive net profit growth, and 4 achieving significant profit increases [1] - Four main driving forces for the electronic sector's future performance have been identified: 1. Semiconductor equipment chain with clear expansion needs in domestic storage and logic wafer factories [1] 2. Domestic computing power chain with an expanding supply-demand gap for AI chips due to U.S. restrictions [1] 3. Recovery in consumer electronics with new product launches expected in September [1] 4. Overseas computing power chain with increased capital expenditure from North American cloud vendors [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - The semiconductor industry continues to show strength, with the electronic ETF (515260) rising over 3.7% during trading and currently up 2.38%, reaching a new high since its listing [1] - In the semiconductor sector, companies like SMIC increased by over 13%, while other firms such as Rockchip and Cambricon saw gains exceeding 8% and 6% respectively [1] - The electronic sector's total market capitalization has surpassed that of the banking sector for the first time, reaching 11.54 trillion yuan as of August 22 [2] Group 2: Financial Results - As of August 27, 35 out of 50 component stocks of the electronic ETF have disclosed their semi-annual reports, with 23 companies reporting positive net profit growth, and 4 companies achieving over 100% growth [3] - Notably, Silan Microelectronics reported a staggering 1162% increase in net profit year-on-year, while Cambricon's revenue grew 43 times [3] Group 3: Capital Inflow - The electronic sector has attracted significant capital inflow, with a net inflow of 13.5 billion yuan as of the morning, and 83.1 billion yuan and 206.6 billion yuan over the past 5 and 20 days respectively [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The electronic sector is expected to be driven by four main themes: 1. Semiconductor equipment chain expansion due to clear demand for domestic storage and logic wafer factories [5] 2. Domestic computing power chain growth amid U.S. restrictions on AI chips, with anticipated breakthroughs in advanced processes [5] 3. Recovery in consumer electronics with the upcoming release of new AI smartphones and AR glasses [5] 4. Growth in overseas computing power chains driven by increased capital expenditure from North American cloud providers [5] Group 5: ETF Composition - The electronic ETF (515260) passively tracks the electronic 50 index, heavily investing in the semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors, with a 43.75% weight in broad consumer electronics stocks [6] - The ETF covers key industries such as AI chips, automotive electronics, 5G, cloud computing, and printed circuit boards (PCBs) [6]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Changxin Reform Dividend Mixed Fund (519971) reported a profit of 425,700 yuan for Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0622 yuan, and a net value growth rate of 4.62% during the reporting period [2]. Fund Performance - As of July 18, the fund's unit net value was 1.508 yuan, with a one-year cumulative net value growth rate of 17.17%, the highest among its peers [2]. - The fund's performance over different time frames includes a three-month growth rate of 16.00%, a six-month growth rate of 12.29%, and a three-year growth rate of 5.02%, ranking 150/880, 251/880, and 177/871 respectively among comparable funds [3]. Market Analysis - The fund manager noted that both A/H shares entered a consolidation phase in Q2, with the Hang Seng Technology index declining by 1.70% and the CSI 300 index increasing by 1.25% [2]. - The market was characterized by structural trends focusing on new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals from April to May, followed by positive feedback in low-position sectors like overseas optical modules and PCB boards in June [2]. Fund Holdings and Strategy - As of June 30, the fund's top ten holdings included companies such as Shenghong Technology, Xiaoshangpin City, and Zhongmingda [16]. - The fund's average stock position over the past three years was 77.51%, with a peak of 92.73% at the end of 2022 and a low of 5.85% in Q1 2020 [13]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was 0.2644, ranking 185/875 among comparable funds [8]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 29.42%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q2 2022 at 19.05% [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that on July 17, the A-share market experienced a significant inflow of funds into industry-themed ETFs, totaling 1.891 billion yuan, while broad-based ETFs faced substantial outflows [2][4]. Fund Flows - On July 17, the overall stock ETF (including cross-border ETFs) saw a net outflow exceeding 500 million yuan, with the latest scale reaching 3.69 trillion yuan. Industry-themed ETFs had a net inflow of 1.891 billion yuan, while broad-based ETFs experienced a net outflow of 4.048 billion yuan [4]. - The China Securities A500 Index ETF recorded the highest net outflow of 1.634 billion yuan on the same day. Over the past five days, the Hong Kong Securities Index saw inflows exceeding 3.1 billion yuan, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index saw inflows exceeding 3 billion yuan [4]. Leading Fund Companies - E Fund's ETF reached a latest scale of 662.94 billion yuan, with an increase of 4.73 billion yuan on July 17 and a total increase of 62.29 billion yuan since 2025, reflecting a net inflow of 14.76 billion yuan [4]. - On July 17, E Fund's Hong Kong Securities ETF and Sci-Tech 50 ETF each had a net inflow of 260 million yuan, while the Robotics ETF saw a net inflow of 20 million yuan, and the Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF had a net inflow of 90 million yuan [4]. Popular Thematic ETFs - The leading industry-themed ETFs attracting capital included the Securities ETF, Dividend Low Volatility ETF, and Photovoltaic ETF, while broad-based ETFs like the Sci-Tech 50 ETF and Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 ETF also saw significant inflows [5][6]. - The top three ETFs by net inflow on July 17 were: 1. Securities ETF: 561 million yuan 2. Dividend Low Volatility ETF: 514 million yuan 3. Photovoltaic ETF: 337 million yuan [7]. Outflows from Broad-based ETFs - The article notes that broad-based ETFs such as the ChiNext ETF, Sci-Tech 50 ETF, and Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 ETF were among the largest outflows, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [8]. - The report from Guotai Fund suggests that the current liquidity environment remains a key support factor for the A-share market, with expectations for domestic demand recovery as policies are implemented [8].

Investment Focus - The report indicates that despite a cautious medium-term outlook, there is potential for a short-term market rebound following recent declines, especially if geopolitical tensions ease [1][10] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a strong rebound, rising 3.2%, with technology stocks showing significant recovery potential after sufficient corrections [1][10] - The report highlights that sectors such as materials, technology, and finance led the gains in the Hong Kong market, while A-shares saw strong performance in technology, materials, and industrials [1][10] Liquidity Analysis - Signs of liquidity disturbances have emerged, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) responding quickly to strong-side convertibility triggers by injecting significant amounts of HKD into the market [2][11] - The HKMA's actions in May 2023 included selling nearly HKD 130 billion, which led to a drop in HIBOR to very low levels, impacting the HKD-USD interest rate spread [2][11] - The report notes that as liquidity remains loose, speculative trading has increased, with several low-priced stocks doubling in value within a single day [3][12] Southbound Fund Flows - Southbound fund inflows increased to HKD 28.4 billion amid easing Middle Eastern tensions, although this remains significantly lower than inflows seen earlier in the year [3][13] - Notable purchases included Guotai Junan International, while Alibaba and Tencent experienced moderate outflows, indicating shifting investor sentiment [3][13] - The report identifies that southbound funds primarily flowed into financials, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, while reducing exposure to communication services and energy [3][13] A-Share Market Dynamics - The brokerage sector's rally led to an increase in margin financing and securities lending balances, indicating renewed investor interest [4][14] - However, macroeconomic uncertainties may limit incremental capital inflows, potentially leading to funding supply pressures if margin financing continues to rise [4][14] - The banking sector experienced a sharp decline after sustained gains, reflecting signs of marginal liquidity weakening in the market [4][14] Market Outlook - The report concludes that while a short-term rebound is likely, the broader oscillation pattern in the market has not ended, with risks in high-flying sectors still not fully released [4][15] - Positive developments in U.S.-China relations and strong earnings expectations in overseas AI infrastructure stocks may support market sentiment in the short term [4][15] - Investors are advised to gradually reduce exposure during the rebound, particularly in sectors that have seen significant recent gains, to prepare for potential volatility [4][15]

Investment Focus - The market has entered a second phase of broad consolidation, with heightened volatility risks in micro-caps, new consumption, and innovative pharma sectors [1][8] - The Hang Seng Index dropped 1.5% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.0%, while A-shares also experienced declines [1][8] - Liquidity in the tech sector has been diverted towards innovative pharma and new consumption, but both sectors saw notable pullbacks this week [1][8] Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The sustainability of rallies in new consumption and innovative pharma depends on continued HKD liquidity and steady southbound inflows [2][9] - Recent pullbacks in innovative pharma have increased the AH premium from a 10-year average of 136 to 139, indicating H-shares are underperforming A-shares [2][9] - The liquidity in the Hong Kong market is tightening, influenced by large IPOs and upcoming listings [2][9] Southbound Capital Flows - This week saw a net inflow of HKD 16.3 billion, but only HKD 4.2 billion flowed in during the last three trading days of market decline [3][10] - Significant selling pressure was observed in Pop Mart, with HKD 1.8 billion sold, nearly erasing the past month's inflows [3][10] - Southbound capital mainly flowed into banks, healthcare, and consumer services, with limited outflows in communication services [3][10] A-Shares Performance - The liquor index rebounded 2.7% this week, supported by favorable media commentary, but the overall downtrend remains unaltered [4][11] - The banking sector continued to perform well, rising 2.6%, which helped stabilize large-cap defensives [4][11] - Micro-caps fell 2.2%, underperforming the broader market but still remain at elevated levels [4][11] Market Outlook - The broad consolidation pattern in the market is expected to continue, with high-flying sectors like micro-caps, new consumption, and innovative pharma yet to fully deflate [4][12] - The expiration of the 90-day tariff grace period on July 9 may lead to renewed pressure from U.S.-China negotiations [4][12] - Investors are advised to wait for better entry points, particularly near 21,000 on the Hang Seng Index and 3,200 on the Shanghai Composite [4][12] Short-Term Market Sentiment - Recent U.S. military actions against Iran may extend market downward momentum early next week [5][13] - If the market declines to key support levels, a bottoming rebound may occur [5][13] - The tech sector, after sufficient pullback, is believed to hold stronger rebound potential, particularly in edge AI and application software [5][13]

Group 1: AMD GPU Launch - AMD launched MI350X and MI355X GPUs on June 13, achieving a 4x increase in computing power and a 35x improvement in inference speed compared to the previous MI300X [1][3] - The MI350 series competes with NVIDIA's B200, featuring 1.6 times the memory capacity and comparable or superior training and inference speeds [3] - The MI350X has a maximum total board power (TBP) of 1000W, while the MI355X reaches 1400W, enhancing performance [3][4] Group 2: Future Developments - AMD plans to release the next-generation MI400 series in 2026, developed in collaboration with OpenAI, with expected performance improvements of 10x over the MI300 series [4] - The MI400 series will utilize the next-generation CDNA architecture, featuring 432GB HBM4 memory and 19.6TB/s memory bandwidth [4] Group 3: AI Applications and Innovations - The Chinese Academy of Sciences launched the "Enlightenment" system for fully automated chip design, which aims to surpass human-level design capabilities [5] - The system will continue to evolve through iterative cycles and explore various AI methodologies to enhance its design capabilities [5] Group 4: AI Financing Trends - Multiverse Computing completed a €1.89 billion (approximately $2.17 billion) Series B funding round, focusing on AI model compression technology that can reduce model size by up to 95% without performance loss [6][7] - The technology allows for significant speed improvements and cost reductions in inference, making it applicable for edge devices [7] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The industry outlook remains positive for overseas computing power chains, with specific companies recommended for investment, including 嘉和美康, 科大讯飞, and 寒武纪, among others [2][8]