报告导读： 国务院总理出席坦赞铁路激活项目开工仪式。全国城市更新工作推进会召开， 城市更新加速推进。俄乌和谈预期提升，关注一带一路国际工程板块。 推荐铜钴矿产资源、储能、红利、西部基建等板块。 风险提示： 宏观经济政策风险，基建投资低于预期等 。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 坦赞铁路激活项目开工，关注一带一路俄乌催化；报告日期：2025.11.24 报告作者： 韩其成（分析师），登记编号：S0880516030004 郭浩然（分析师），登记编号：S0880524020002 曹有成（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040079 国务院 总理出席坦赞铁路激活项目开工仪式，三国政府共同发表联合声明。 (1) 当地时间 11 月 20 日，国务院总理在 卢萨卡同赞比亚总统、坦桑尼亚副总 统共同出席坦赞铁路激活项目开工仪式 。 (2) 中坦赞三国政府共同发表《关于携手打造坦赞铁路繁荣带的联合声明》，推动铁路沿线和周边地区现有工业、 产业园区建设，规划建设经济特区、自贸区，实现联动发展，助力坦、赞两国工业化和农业现代化。 (3) 上世纪七十年代建成的坦赞铁路是中国最具有代 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the construction and decoration industry, particularly focusing on international engineering leaders such as China National Materials (中材国际), China Steel International (中钢国际), and others [9][24]. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased, which could lead to significant reconstruction investments in Ukraine, estimated at $523.6 billion over the next decade, creating substantial demand for construction projects and building materials [2][18]. - Chinese construction companies are well-positioned to benefit from overseas projects, especially in post-war reconstruction efforts in Ukraine, as they possess competitive advantages in technology, efficiency, and cost [3][20]. - The trend of urbanization and industrialization in emerging markets, combined with the relocation of some manufacturing capacities from China, indicates a long-term trend of Chinese construction companies expanding overseas [7][24]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the potential for large-scale reconstruction in Ukraine if the conflict ends, with significant investment needs in housing (16% of total needs) and infrastructure (32.4% of total needs) [2][18]. - The demand for basic construction materials like cement and steel is expected to rise significantly due to reconstruction efforts [18][19]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include: - China National Materials (中材国际) with a PE of 7.2X and a dividend yield of 5.5% - China Steel International (中钢国际) with a PE of 9.6X and a dividend yield of 5.3% - Northern International (北方国际) with a PE of 11X - China Chemical Engineering (中国化学) with a PE of 6.3X and a PB of 0.70X - Jianghe Group (江河集团) with a PE of 12X and a dividend yield of 6.5% - Precision Steel Structure (精工钢构) with a PE of 10X and a dividend yield of 6.9% [8][24][26]. Market Trends - The report notes that overseas construction demand remains robust, driven by urbanization and industrialization in emerging markets, such as Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 and various infrastructure initiatives in Southeast Asia [7][22][23]. - The report cites that 68% of A-share listed companies have disclosed overseas business income, indicating a growing trend of Chinese companies expanding internationally [7][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Insights - The construction materials industry continues to face pressure on profitability, with operating cash flow showing improvement [1] - The overall revenue of the sample companies in the infrastructure real estate chain decreased by 4.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous quarters [27] - The report highlights that leading companies are seeking external growth and enhancing market share despite the challenging environment [24] Summary by Sections Profit and Loss Analysis - The revenue decline for the construction materials sector has slowed, with Q3 2025 revenues for construction and materials down 4.6% and 3.4% year-on-year, respectively [27] - The revenue growth rates for various sub-sectors in Q3 2025 show significant variation, with design consulting at 38.4% and cement at 53.8% [1][15] - The overall return on equity (ROE) for the sample companies was 6.5%, with the construction and materials sectors at 7.2% and 3.8%, respectively [2][19] - The sales net profit margin for the construction materials sector was 5.5%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.3 percentage points [3][22] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - The net cash flow from operating activities for the sample companies reached 926.9 billion, with the construction sector generating 754.8 billion and the materials sector 172.1 billion [8][5] - The overall asset-liability ratio for the sample companies was 75.2%, with the construction and materials sectors at 77.4% and 48.2%, respectively [8][5] Key Sub-sector Performance - In Q3 2025, the construction materials sector's net profit decreased by 14.4% year-on-year, while the materials sector saw a 10.9% increase [4][31] - The highest net profit growth rates were observed in the decoration and renovation sector at 289.0% and glass fiber at 84.7% [31][4] - The report indicates that the cash flow management has improved, particularly in the infrastructure and international engineering sub-sectors [8][5]

Group 1 - Xinpeng Co., Ltd. provided a guarantee of 50 million yuan for its wholly-owned subsidiary, increasing the total guarantee amount to 1.258 billion yuan, which is 115.47% of the latest audited net assets [1] - Yonggui Electric's subsidiary signed a contract worth 15.8652 million yuan with CRRC Zhuzhou for supplying components for the Wuhan rail transit project [1] - Huada Technology secured project designations from multiple domestic automakers and battery companies, with a total expected sales amount of 2.9 billion yuan, over 80% of which is related to new energy projects [2] Group 2 - China National Machinery International signed a contract for a 5.71 billion yuan hospital construction project in Iraq, which represents 4.68% of the company's expected revenue for 2024 [3] - Fangzhi Technology plans to acquire 100% of Zhixiang Technology for 116 million yuan, focusing on AI-driven smart learning and sports solutions [4] - Demingli is in the early stages of planning a refinancing initiative, with no specific details on the amount or method yet [5] Group 3 - Hesheng Silicon Industry announced a shareholder's plan to reduce holdings by up to 2.29%, equating to 27.0706 million shares [7] - ST Lanhua's subsidiary plans to invest up to 65 million yuan in a juice beverage project in Chongqing [8] - Ruizhi Pharmaceutical developed an automated synthesis system for antibody-drug conjugates and nucleoside monomers in collaboration with East China Normal University [9] Group 4 - Lianying Laser's controlling shareholder intends to reduce holdings by up to 3 million shares, representing 0.88% of the total share capital [10] - Songyuan Safety's controlling shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 1% of the total share capital [12] - ST Kaixin's actual controller and major shareholders plan to transfer 5% of the company's shares at a price of 27.85 yuan per share [13] Group 5 - Bojun Technology plans to invest approximately 1 billion yuan in a new automotive parts production base, aiming for an annual capacity of 24 million sets [13] - Litong Electronics' controlling shareholder committed to not reducing holdings for 24 months, while other shareholders plan to reduce a total of 3.03% of shares [14] - Yaoyigou's actual controller intends to transfer 5.23% of shares to a company director at a price of 24 yuan per share [15] Group 6 - Baiwei Storage submitted H-share listing application materials to the China Securities Regulatory Commission [18] - Jinshi Yaya obtained a drug registration certificate for glucosamine sulfate capsules, which are suitable for osteoarthritis treatment [19] - Shangtai Technology plans to invest approximately 4.07 billion yuan in a lithium-ion battery anode material project [19] Group 7 - Xinlitai's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 800,000 shares, representing 0.07% of the total share capital [20] - Yunnan Baiyao elected Zhang Wenxue as the chairman of the board for a three-year term [21] - Huading Co., Ltd. announced that two shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3% of the total share capital [23] Group 8 - Jiahua Technology's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 0.65% of the total share capital [25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction industry is "Positive" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The construction industry has experienced a decline in revenue and performance, but the rate of decline has narrowed compared to the previous year. The overall profitability remains relatively stable, with only a slight decrease compared to the same period last year [6][19]. - The industry is facing challenges due to sluggish demand, but companies are adopting more conservative approaches to new orders, focusing on the payment capabilities of owners and reducing capital advances [6][19]. - The first three quarters of 2025 saw a decrease in operating cash outflow, and while the asset-liability ratio and interest-bearing debt ratio increased compared to the beginning of the year, they showed a slight decrease on a quarter-on-quarter basis [6][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of October 31, 2025, the construction industry reported a total revenue of 58,403.89 billion, a decrease of 5.14% year-on-year, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.09 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,288.62 billion, down 8.41%, with a narrowing decline of 2.98 percentage points [21][19]. Profitability - The overall gross margin for the industry decreased to 10.0%, down 0.05 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 2.21%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points [28][31]. Cash Flow - The net cash outflow from operations for the first three quarters of 2025 was 4,082.54 billion, a reduction of 719.02 billion year-on-year. The cash collection ratio increased by 3.45 percentage points to 99.24%, while the cash payment ratio increased by 3.07 percentage points to 106.04% [38][39]. Subsector Performance - Most subsectors experienced a decline in revenue, with the international engineering sector seeing a drop of 25.4%, and the decoration sector down by 22.32%. However, the chemical engineering sector reported a revenue increase of over 10% [50][53]. - The gross margin for seven subsectors increased year-on-year, with the international engineering sector achieving a gross margin of 15.81%, an increase of 2.88 percentage points [54][55].

Core Viewpoint - China National Materials International Engineering Co., Ltd. (中材国际) has shown a positive stock performance and steady financial growth, indicating potential investment opportunities in the engineering and construction sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 32.998 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.99% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.074 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.68% year-on-year [2]. - The stock price has increased by 7.42% year-to-date, with a 1.89% rise over the last five trading days [1]. Stock Market Activity - On November 7, the stock price rose by 2.11%, reaching 9.70 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 113 million yuan [1]. - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 25.432 billion yuan [1]. - The net inflow of main funds was 7.0377 million yuan, with significant buying activity from large orders [1]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 63,000, up by 8.95% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 8.22% to 35,748 shares [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 7.498 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.037 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3]. Business Segments - The main business revenue composition includes: Engineering Technical Services (58.02%), Production Operation Services (28.77%), High-end Equipment Manufacturing (10.65%), and Other Services (5.69%) [2]. - The company operates in various sectors, including engineering consulting, equipment manufacturing, and digital intelligent services [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company, North International (000065), is actively engaging with institutional investors to enhance communication and improve its operational quality, focusing on its role in international engineering and capacity cooperation, particularly in relation to the Belt and Road Initiative [2][3]. Group 1: Company Positioning and Strategy - The company is positioned as a key player in supporting national strategies, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative, aiming to strengthen its international operations in civilian products [2]. - North International leverages its Norinco brand and overseas investment network to establish a strong presence in key markets, especially along the Belt and Road, focusing on energy, resource, and industrial engineering projects [3]. - The company emphasizes a market-oriented approach to resource integration, maintaining close partnerships with leading global enterprises to enhance its operational capabilities [4]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company has implemented an investment-driven transformation, integrating investment, construction, and operation to enhance its management capabilities and achieve good returns on investment projects [5]. - A high-quality, professional talent pool familiar with international operations supports the company's ability to manage overseas projects effectively [6]. - The company adopts a localized operational strategy, establishing a comprehensive management system to support its international business across various countries [7]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 9.915 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 29.79%, and a net profit of 485 million, down 36.02% [12]. - The company’s electricity operation segment showed stable performance, with significant growth in generation and revenue, particularly from projects in Croatia and Laos [8][9]. - The company plans to continue expanding its overseas electricity asset portfolio and explore new revenue channels, enhancing the profitability and strategic value of its electricity operations [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Shareholder Returns - The company has a long-standing commitment to stable shareholder returns, with a cash dividend ratio of 15% for 2024, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous year, amounting to 158 million, a 72.55% increase year-on-year [11]. - Future dividend policies will balance operational funding needs with shareholder returns, aiming to gradually enhance dividend levels [11].

Group 1: Company Positioning and Strategy - The company is positioned as a key player in supporting the "Belt and Road" initiative, focusing on international engineering and capacity cooperation [1] - The company aims to enhance its international operations in consumer goods, striving for growth and optimization [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - **Brand Advantage**: Leveraging the Norinco brand and overseas investment network, the company has established a strong presence in key markets, particularly along the "Belt and Road" [2] - **Global Resource Integration**: The company maintains close partnerships with leading enterprises in the global supply chain, fostering a mutually beneficial ecosystem [2] - **Investment-Driven Growth**: The company has implemented an investment-driven transformation, enhancing its project management capabilities and achieving good returns on several projects [2] - **High-Quality Talent Pool**: The company boasts a skilled workforce adept in international operations and project management, crucial for executing overseas projects [2] Group 3: Localization Strategy - The company has established a broad international presence, with operations in dozens of countries across three continents, emphasizing localized strategies tailored to specific markets [3] Group 4: Business Performance - The power operation segment has shown stable growth, with a reported electricity generation of 289 million kWh and an average electricity price of €0.099 per kWh, leading to significant revenue increases [4] - The company plans to expand its overseas power asset portfolio and explore new revenue channels, including energy storage projects [4] Group 5: Future Development and Shareholder Returns - The company has maintained a consistent cash dividend policy for 17 years, with a planned cash dividend ratio of 15% for 2024, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous year, totaling ¥158 million, a 72.55% increase [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Views - The construction sector experienced a decline of 1.35% this week, underperforming the broader market by 1.11 percentage points, with mergers, acquisitions, and technology-related stocks showing stronger performance [1][3] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the construction sector reported a revenue decline of 5.10% and a net profit decline of 9.53%, with the revenue drop remaining consistent compared to the same period in 2024 [1][12] - The third quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 4.24% and a net profit decline of 17.52%, with an increase in expenses impacting profits [1][12] Summary by Sections 1. Construction Sector Performance - The construction sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 58,415 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 5.10% and a net profit of 1,239 billion yuan, down 9.53% [12][15] - The third quarter of 2025 showed a revenue decline of 4.24% and a net profit decline of 17.52%, with a slight improvement in revenue compared to the second quarter [1][12] 2. Central Enterprises - Only China Chemical, China Electric Power, and China Energy Construction reported positive revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with China Chemical also achieving positive net profit growth [2][15] - The current dividend yield for China Construction is at 5.00%, highlighting its strong performance in terms of dividends [2][15] 3. International Engineering - China National Materials achieved a revenue growth of 3.99% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a 4.48% growth in the third quarter [2][19] - Other international engineering companies faced significant revenue and profit pressure, with high dividend yields for China National Materials and China Steel International at 4.76% and 4.67% respectively [2][19] 4. Local State-Owned Enterprises - Local state-owned enterprises such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, Tibet Tianlu, and Xinjiang Communications Construction reported positive revenue and profit growth [2][22] - Xinjiang Communications Construction showed remarkable performance with a revenue growth of 38.58% and a net profit growth of 147.73% in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][22] 5. Professional Engineering - Companies in the semiconductor cleanroom sector, such as Shenghui Integration, reported significant growth, with a revenue increase of 59.40% and a net profit increase of 93.89% in the third quarter of 2025 [2][20] - The overall performance in the professional engineering sector showed a clear divergence, with some companies experiencing strong growth while others faced challenges [2][20] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the construction sector's recovery, particularly in infrastructure investments driven by government initiatives [29] - Key recommendations include local state-owned enterprises in high-growth regions such as Sichuan and Zhejiang, as well as central enterprises like China Communications Construction and China Railway Construction [29]

Core Viewpoint - 中工国际 is a significant player in the international engineering contracting sector, with a competitive edge in project experience and technical expertise [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, 中工国际 reported revenue of 7.125 billion, ranking 4th in the industry, with the top competitor 中材国际 generating 32.998 billion [2] - The company's net profit for the same period was 245 million, also ranking 4th, while the industry leader 中材国际 reported 2.231 billion [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, 中工国际's debt-to-asset ratio was 53.68%, lower than the industry average of 59.33%, indicating relatively low debt pressure [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 18.57%, higher than the industry average of 16.31%, reflecting strong profitability [3] Group 3: Leadership and Compensation - The chairman, 王博, has a rich background in management and engineering, with no changes in his compensation [4] - The general manager, 李海欣, saw a reduction in salary from 1.3313 million in 2023 to 707,400 in 2024 [4] Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 9.11% to 49,400, while the average number of shares held per shareholder increased by 10.03% [5] - Major shareholders include 香港中央结算有限公司 and new entrants like 华夏中证1000ETF [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - 中工国际 is projected to have an EPS growth of 10%/9%/8% for 2025-2027, with a target price of 10.73 yuan based on a PE of 33.5 [5] - The company has signed new contracts in H1 2025, with a 33% increase in new contracts and significant growth in domestic engineering contracting [6]