袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 册 分歧行 2026年03月01日 站院/行业 相关研究 证券分析师 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 统筹发展和安全,牢固树立和践行正确政绩观 电万宏源建筑周报（20260223-20260227） 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 == 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数+4.97%，沪深 300 指 数+1.08%，相对收益为+3.89pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为国际 工程 (+8.33%)、基建民企 (+6.10%)、专业工程 (+5.91%)，对应行 业内三个公司:中铝国际（+16.12%）、成都路桥（+15.07%）、罗曼股 份 (+37.70%)； 年 涨 幅 最 大 的 三 个 子 行 业 分 别 是 专 业 工 程 (+28.14%)、 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The cleanroom market is expanding due to increased investment in high-tech industries, benefiting companies like Yaxiang Integration, with related companies including Shenghui Integration and Bocheng Co., Ltd. [3][4] - The real estate market is showing signs of marginal improvement, with significant potential for transformation and development [5] Summary by Sections Cleanroom Industry - The growth in high-tech industry investments is driving the expansion of the cleanroom market, with Micron Technology planning to invest $24 billion in a NAND factory in Singapore over the next decade, which will include 700,000 square feet of cleanroom space [4] - The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) predicts a 26.3% increase in the global semiconductor market by 2026, reaching $975 billion, further supporting the cleanroom industry's growth [4] - Yaxiang Integration's parent company reported a consolidated revenue of NT$9.5 billion (approximately RMB 2.1 billion) in December, a year-on-year increase of 165.2% [4] Real Estate Market - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 emphasized stabilizing the real estate market through targeted policies, including controlling inventory and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [5] - An article published on January 2, 2026, highlighted the importance of managing expectations in the real estate market, which has significant financial asset attributes and broad social implications [5] Recommended Companies - The report recommends Yaxiang Integration for the cleanroom sector, with related companies including Bocheng Co., Ltd. and Shenghui Integration [7] - Other sectors recommended include commercial aerospace, controllable nuclear fusion, and renewable energy, with specific companies highlighted for each sector [7]

2026 年 02 月 01 日 相关研究 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究成功费 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 tanqmeng@swsresearch.com 1 月制造业、建筑业 PMI 双降，天气叠加节日 因素投资景气度有所下降 ──申万宏源建筑周报（20260126-20260130） 本期投资后了 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数-1.44%，沪深 300 指 0 数+0.08%，相对收益为-1.52pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为国际 工程 (+0.50%)、专业工程 (+0.11%)、钢结构 (-0.69%)，对应行业 内三个公司：中材国际 (+6.04%)、罗曼股份 (+18.60%)、鸿路钢构 (+5.11%); 年涨幅最大的三个子行业分别是专业工程 (+22.53%)、 钢结构 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the construction industry, indicating a favorable investment environment for 2026 as it marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1]. Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while the construction PMI stands at 48.8%, down 4.0 percentage points, reflecting a decline in investment sentiment due to weather and holiday factors [3][11]. - The report highlights the government's initiative to foster new growth points in service consumption, encouraging local governments to utilize financial resources and industry funds to enhance infrastructure in tourism and residential areas [11]. - The report identifies key companies with significant profit growth expectations, such as Zhite New Materials, which anticipates a net profit of 160-200 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 117.11%-171.39% [13][14]. Industry Performance - The SW Construction Decoration Index decreased by 1.44%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.08% [3][4]. - The best-performing sub-industries for the week included International Engineering (+0.50%) and Professional Engineering (+0.11%), while the Steel Structure sub-industry saw a decline of 0.69% [5][9]. - Year-to-date, the Professional Engineering sub-industry has increased by 22.53%, and the Steel Structure sub-industry by 21.12%, with notable companies like Zhite New Materials showing a staggering increase of 234.08% [5][9]. Key Company Developments - China Aluminum International signed 4,891 contracts in 2025, with a total contract value of 46.836 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 51.94% [13][16]. - Other companies such as Shanghai Construction and Zhengzhong Design are projected to experience varying profit changes, with Shanghai Construction expecting a significant decline in net profit for 2025 [14][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring new contract signings and order volumes for key companies to gauge future performance [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China National Materials International Engineering Co., Ltd. (中材国际) has shown a positive stock performance with a 6.16% increase in stock price year-to-date and a significant rise in trading volume [1][3] - As of January 26, the stock price reached 11.03 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 28.919 billion yuan [1] - The company has a diverse business model, primarily focusing on EPC engineering contracting services, high-end equipment manufacturing, and production operation services [2] Group 2 - For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 32.998 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.074 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.68% [3] - The company has distributed a total of 7.498 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.037 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [4] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 63,000, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 8.22% [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [3][6]. Core Insights - The company signed new contracts worth 71.24 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12%. The fourth quarter alone saw new contracts of 11.35 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year. As of the end of 2025, the company had an order backlog of 66.46 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.3% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion, with new contracts in international markets reaching 45.02 billion yuan, a significant increase of 24% year-on-year. In contrast, domestic contracts decreased by 4% to 26.21 billion yuan, indicating a gradual reduction in domestic project drag [5]. - The high-end equipment segment saw a remarkable growth of 30% in new contracts, totaling 9.3 billion yuan, with mining equipment orders doubling to 1.69 billion yuan, a 129% increase [5]. - The company is expected to maintain growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, supported by a strong order backlog and increasing overseas business, while domestic engineering drag is anticipated to lessen [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.078 billion yuan in 2025, with growth rates of 3.2%, 6.2%, and 7.7% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are estimated at 8.99, 8.46, and 7.86 times [6][7]. - Revenue forecasts for the years 2024 to 2027 are as follows: 46.127 billion yuan (2024), 48.558 billion yuan (2025), 51.026 billion yuan (2026), and 54.354 billion yuan (2027), with growth rates of 0.72%, 5.27%, 5.08%, and 6.52% respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2][24]. Core Insights - The report highlights that infrastructure investment is under pressure, necessitating measures to stabilize investment and prevent further decline [3]. - The construction industry has shown a slight decline of 0.10% in the past week, with the international engineering sector performing the best with a gain of 4.90% [4][6]. - Key companies are expected to benefit from emerging sectors as national strategic initiatives are implemented, particularly in the central and western regions of China [3]. Industry Performance - The SW Construction and Decoration Index decreased by 0.10%, outperforming the Shenzhen Composite Index which fell by 0.89% [4]. - The top three sub-sectors by weekly growth were international engineering (+4.90%), steel structure (+3.09%), and decorative curtain walls (+2.09%) [6][10]. - Year-to-date, the ecological landscaping sector has seen the highest growth at +50.07%, followed by decorative curtain walls at +44.48% [6]. Key Company Developments - Shenghui Integration won a contract worth 432 million yuan for a project in Thailand, representing 21.51% of its projected 2024 revenue [15]. - Time-Space Technology secured a contract for a project in Xiushan County valued at 141 million yuan, accounting for 41.35% of its expected 2024 revenue [15]. - China Metallurgical Group reported a decline in new contract value by 8.6% year-on-year, totaling 958.13 billion yuan [16]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the construction industry is expected to stabilize in 2026, with new investment opportunities arising from major national strategies [3]. - Companies with low valuations are anticipated to see a recovery, with a focus on China Railway, China Metallurgical, Shanghai Construction, and Tunnel Corporation [3].

Core Viewpoint - Zhonggang International's stock has shown a positive trend with a year-to-date increase of 8.05%, reflecting a stable performance in the engineering and technology service sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Zhonggang International reported a revenue of 9.175 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 27.20%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 556 million yuan, down 13.21% compared to the previous year [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 2.361 billion yuan, with 1.127 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - As of December 19, Zhonggang International's stock price reached 6.56 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 50.05 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.54%. The total market capitalization stands at 9.411 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a net inflow of main funds amounting to 1.8005 million yuan, with significant buying activity from large orders [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 54,300, with an average of 26,432 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 4.01% from the previous period [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and several ETFs, with notable changes in their holdings [3].

Group 1 - The core breakthrough of the peace agreement involves a shift from territorial deadlock to security guarantees, with key terms revised to focus on practical aspects like ceasefire and prisoner exchanges while postponing core disputes over territory and NATO membership [2][21] - Ukraine has accepted a collective defense commitment similar to NATO's Article 5 from the US and Europe, while excluding direct NATO membership, and the limit on the Ukrainian military size has been increased from 600,000 to 800,000, maintaining defense autonomy [2][21] Group 2 - The US is leading a transactional diplomacy approach, exchanging security guarantees for Ukrainian concessions, particularly targeting the development rights of Ukrainian mineral resources, with 50% of the reconstruction fund's revenue allocated to the US [3][22] - Europe is participating passively, with Germany, France, and the UK proposing a modified peace plan emphasizing that territorial issues should be decided by a national referendum in Ukraine, attempting to weaken US unilateral dominance [3][22] Group 3 - Ukraine's compromise is driven by dual pressures of military and economic exhaustion, with Russia controlling 120,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory (20% of the country), highlighting vulnerabilities in Ukraine's defense system [4][24] - The infrastructure in Ukraine has suffered systemic damage, necessitating a comprehensive ceasefire to ensure wartime elections, forcing Ukraine to trade resources for security [5][25] Group 4 - The US has a strategic interest in key minerals, with Ukraine's lithium and titanium reserves ranking among the top globally, and the mineral agreement stipulates that 50% of future mineral revenues will fund the US-led reconstruction efforts to offset military aid costs [6][26] Group 5 - The geopolitical landscape is shifting towards a tripartite balance among the US, Russia, and Europe, with the US prioritizing resource control through security agreements that bind Ukraine's mineral development rights, thereby diminishing Europe's economic influence in Ukraine [7][27] - There is a tacit agreement between the US and Russia, allowing Russia to maintain control over eastern Ukraine in exchange for halting further advances, which reduces US strategic investments [8][28] Group 6 - Europe faces a dilemma of marginalization, losing security discourse power, as Germany and France push for the "Eastern Sentinel" initiative to strengthen eastern defense but cannot prevent direct negotiations between the US and Russia [9][29] - The competition for resources is intensifying, with the EU submitting a mineral cooperation agreement to compete with the US for dominance over Ukrainian lithium and titanium [10][30] Group 7 - Investment opportunities arise from the urgent need for reconstruction in Ukraine's energy and transportation infrastructure, with international engineering firms like China Power Construction (601669) and China Communications Construction (601800) likely to secure contracts [11][31] - The repair of the electrical grid and construction of natural gas pipelines will drive equipment exports from companies like XJ Electric (000400) and Beiken Energy (002828) [12][32] Group 8 - The development of lithium mines in Ukraine will benefit battery manufacturers like CATL (300750) and Huayou Cobalt (603799) as they diversify their supply chains, while titanium processing will attract attention to Baotai Co. (600456) [13][33] - The restoration of the Black Sea grain corridor will benefit agricultural trade, reducing import costs for companies like COFCO Corporation (600737) and Suqian Agricultural Development (601952) [14][34] Group 9 - The peace agreement signals the start of a post-war reconstruction cycle, presenting structural opportunities in infrastructure, minerals, and agriculture, with investors needing to monitor the progress of the agreement and the dynamics of US-European resource competition [20][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the construction industry [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the logic of overseas engineering expansion is gradually being realized, with high growth areas showing superior growth. Infrastructure and real estate demand continue to face pressure, while railway and water conservancy investments perform well, with the effects of debt reduction expected to gradually manifest [1][8]. - Central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are experiencing a significant decline in revenue and performance, but there is a long-term trend of improving operational quality. Many SOEs have shown improvements in profitability, cash flow, and expense ratios, indicating a gradual enhancement in operational quality [2][8]. - The overseas new contract signing is rapidly increasing, demonstrating the effectiveness of the overseas expansion strategy. The contract value and revenue from foreign engineering projects have shown significant year-on-year growth, providing support for domestic construction enterprises [3][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Infrastructure investment growth has been declining, with broad infrastructure investment growth dropping from 11.50% in early 2023 to 1.51% by October 2025. Narrow infrastructure investment growth turned negative, indicating a significant slowdown in traditional infrastructure demand [16][17]. - The investment growth in the railway sector remains positive, while road transport investment has been declining due to funding pressures from local governments and construction enterprises [18][20]. 2. Central SOEs Performance - Central SOEs in the infrastructure sector are facing revenue and performance growth challenges, but operational quality is improving. The implementation of debt reduction measures is expected to show fiscal effects by 2026 [2][8]. 3. Overseas Expansion - The overseas contract signing for Chinese construction enterprises has increased significantly, with major state-owned enterprises showing higher growth rates in new contracts compared to the overall market. This trend is expected to support revenue growth in the coming years [3][8]. 4. Regional Investment Trends - In the western region, particularly Xinjiang, fixed asset investment growth is significantly higher than the national average, with major infrastructure projects expected to drive demand growth [6][8]. - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is projected to see substantial investment, with over 400 key projects planned, totaling an investment of 3.47 trillion yuan [6][8]. 5. Cleanroom Engineering Demand - The demand for cleanroom construction is expected to rise due to increased capital expenditure in the AI and semiconductor industries. The cleanroom engineering sector is experiencing rapid growth in orders, particularly from overseas markets [7][8]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that low-valuation central SOEs like China State Construction and China Communications Construction Company are well-positioned for stable returns, with improving operational metrics and increasing dividends [9][8]. - Leading companies in overseas expansion, such as China National Materials and China Steel International, are expected to outperform traditional construction enterprises due to their strong growth in overseas orders [9][8].