建筑装饰 2025 年 12 月 21 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 基建投资承压，推动投资止跌回稳必要性增强 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20251215-20251219） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数-0.10%，沪深 300 指 数-0.28%，相对收益为 0.18pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为国际 工程（+4.90%）、钢结构（+3.09%）、装饰幕墙（+2.09%），对应行业 内三个公司：中材国际（+10.78%）、鸿路钢构（+7. ...

资料显示，中钢国际工程技术股份有限公司位于北京市海淀区海淀大街8号中钢国际广场26层,吉林省吉 林市昌邑区江湾路2号世贸万锦10层，成立日期1999年4月15日，上市日期1999年3月12日，公司主营业 务涉及工程技术服务和设备集成及备品备件供应业务。主营业务收入构成为：工程总承包93.64%，商 品销售4.54%，服务1.59%，其他(补充)0.23%。 中钢国际所属申万行业为：建筑装饰-专业工程-国际工程。所属概念板块包括：工业4.0、数字经济、东 北振兴、一带一路、小盘等。 截至9月30日，中钢国际股东户数5.43万，较上期增加4.18%；人均流通股26432股，较上期减少4.01%。 2025年1月-9月，中钢国际实现营业收入91.75亿元，同比减少27.20%；归母净利润5.56亿元，同比减少 13.21%。 分红方面，中钢国际A股上市后累计派现23.61亿元。近三年，累计派现11.27亿元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 12月19日，中钢国际盘中上涨2.02%，截至09:52，报6.56元/股，成交5005.00万元，换手率0.54%，总市 值94.11亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入180.05万元 ...

Group 1 - The core breakthrough of the peace agreement involves a shift from territorial deadlock to security guarantees, with key terms revised to focus on practical aspects like ceasefire and prisoner exchanges while postponing core disputes over territory and NATO membership [2][21] - Ukraine has accepted a collective defense commitment similar to NATO's Article 5 from the US and Europe, while excluding direct NATO membership, and the limit on the Ukrainian military size has been increased from 600,000 to 800,000, maintaining defense autonomy [2][21] Group 2 - The US is leading a transactional diplomacy approach, exchanging security guarantees for Ukrainian concessions, particularly targeting the development rights of Ukrainian mineral resources, with 50% of the reconstruction fund's revenue allocated to the US [3][22] - Europe is participating passively, with Germany, France, and the UK proposing a modified peace plan emphasizing that territorial issues should be decided by a national referendum in Ukraine, attempting to weaken US unilateral dominance [3][22] Group 3 - Ukraine's compromise is driven by dual pressures of military and economic exhaustion, with Russia controlling 120,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory (20% of the country), highlighting vulnerabilities in Ukraine's defense system [4][24] - The infrastructure in Ukraine has suffered systemic damage, necessitating a comprehensive ceasefire to ensure wartime elections, forcing Ukraine to trade resources for security [5][25] Group 4 - The US has a strategic interest in key minerals, with Ukraine's lithium and titanium reserves ranking among the top globally, and the mineral agreement stipulates that 50% of future mineral revenues will fund the US-led reconstruction efforts to offset military aid costs [6][26] Group 5 - The geopolitical landscape is shifting towards a tripartite balance among the US, Russia, and Europe, with the US prioritizing resource control through security agreements that bind Ukraine's mineral development rights, thereby diminishing Europe's economic influence in Ukraine [7][27] - There is a tacit agreement between the US and Russia, allowing Russia to maintain control over eastern Ukraine in exchange for halting further advances, which reduces US strategic investments [8][28] Group 6 - Europe faces a dilemma of marginalization, losing security discourse power, as Germany and France push for the "Eastern Sentinel" initiative to strengthen eastern defense but cannot prevent direct negotiations between the US and Russia [9][29] - The competition for resources is intensifying, with the EU submitting a mineral cooperation agreement to compete with the US for dominance over Ukrainian lithium and titanium [10][30] Group 7 - Investment opportunities arise from the urgent need for reconstruction in Ukraine's energy and transportation infrastructure, with international engineering firms like China Power Construction (601669) and China Communications Construction (601800) likely to secure contracts [11][31] - The repair of the electrical grid and construction of natural gas pipelines will drive equipment exports from companies like XJ Electric (000400) and Beiken Energy (002828) [12][32] Group 8 - The development of lithium mines in Ukraine will benefit battery manufacturers like CATL (300750) and Huayou Cobalt (603799) as they diversify their supply chains, while titanium processing will attract attention to Baotai Co. (600456) [13][33] - The restoration of the Black Sea grain corridor will benefit agricultural trade, reducing import costs for companies like COFCO Corporation (600737) and Suqian Agricultural Development (601952) [14][34] Group 9 - The peace agreement signals the start of a post-war reconstruction cycle, presenting structural opportunities in infrastructure, minerals, and agriculture, with investors needing to monitor the progress of the agreement and the dynamics of US-European resource competition [20][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the construction industry [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the logic of overseas engineering expansion is gradually being realized, with high growth areas showing superior growth. Infrastructure and real estate demand continue to face pressure, while railway and water conservancy investments perform well, with the effects of debt reduction expected to gradually manifest [1][8]. - Central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are experiencing a significant decline in revenue and performance, but there is a long-term trend of improving operational quality. Many SOEs have shown improvements in profitability, cash flow, and expense ratios, indicating a gradual enhancement in operational quality [2][8]. - The overseas new contract signing is rapidly increasing, demonstrating the effectiveness of the overseas expansion strategy. The contract value and revenue from foreign engineering projects have shown significant year-on-year growth, providing support for domestic construction enterprises [3][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Infrastructure investment growth has been declining, with broad infrastructure investment growth dropping from 11.50% in early 2023 to 1.51% by October 2025. Narrow infrastructure investment growth turned negative, indicating a significant slowdown in traditional infrastructure demand [16][17]. - The investment growth in the railway sector remains positive, while road transport investment has been declining due to funding pressures from local governments and construction enterprises [18][20]. 2. Central SOEs Performance - Central SOEs in the infrastructure sector are facing revenue and performance growth challenges, but operational quality is improving. The implementation of debt reduction measures is expected to show fiscal effects by 2026 [2][8]. 3. Overseas Expansion - The overseas contract signing for Chinese construction enterprises has increased significantly, with major state-owned enterprises showing higher growth rates in new contracts compared to the overall market. This trend is expected to support revenue growth in the coming years [3][8]. 4. Regional Investment Trends - In the western region, particularly Xinjiang, fixed asset investment growth is significantly higher than the national average, with major infrastructure projects expected to drive demand growth [6][8]. - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is projected to see substantial investment, with over 400 key projects planned, totaling an investment of 3.47 trillion yuan [6][8]. 5. Cleanroom Engineering Demand - The demand for cleanroom construction is expected to rise due to increased capital expenditure in the AI and semiconductor industries. The cleanroom engineering sector is experiencing rapid growth in orders, particularly from overseas markets [7][8]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that low-valuation central SOEs like China State Construction and China Communications Construction Company are well-positioned for stable returns, with improving operational metrics and increasing dividends [9][8]. - Leading companies in overseas expansion, such as China National Materials and China Steel International, are expected to outperform traditional construction enterprises due to their strong growth in overseas orders [9][8].

Group 1: Key Points on the TAZARA Railway Project - The TAZARA Railway activation project was inaugurated with the participation of the Chinese Premier and leaders from Zambia and Tanzania, aiming to enhance industrial and agricultural modernization in the region [1] - The railway, originally built in the 1970s, spans 1860.5 kilometers and includes 320 bridges and 22 tunnels, with the activation expected to increase freight capacity from approximately 200,000 tons to 2.4 million tons annually, while reducing transit time by two-thirds [1] Group 2: Urban Renewal Initiatives - A national urban renewal conference was held to promote high-quality urban development, focusing on creating modern, resilient, and smart cities [2] - The initiative emphasizes the necessity of urban renewal for accelerating urban energy transformation and aims to stimulate investment and consumption through new industries and business models [2] - A sustainable financing system for urban construction and operation is being established, encouraging financial institutions to develop long-term, low-interest credit products [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Developments and Investment Opportunities - Expectations for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have increased, with Ukraine's delegation set to participate in negotiations regarding a U.S. peace plan [3] - A joint statement from multiple European nations indicates that the U.S. proposal could serve as a foundation for further discussions, highlighting the geopolitical context that may influence international engineering projects under the Belt and Road Initiative [3] Group 4: Recommended Investment Sectors - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as copper and cobalt resources, energy storage, dividends, and infrastructure development in Western regions as potential investment opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the construction and decoration industry, particularly focusing on international engineering leaders such as China National Materials (中材国际), China Steel International (中钢国际), and others [9][24]. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased, which could lead to significant reconstruction investments in Ukraine, estimated at $523.6 billion over the next decade, creating substantial demand for construction projects and building materials [2][18]. - Chinese construction companies are well-positioned to benefit from overseas projects, especially in post-war reconstruction efforts in Ukraine, as they possess competitive advantages in technology, efficiency, and cost [3][20]. - The trend of urbanization and industrialization in emerging markets, combined with the relocation of some manufacturing capacities from China, indicates a long-term trend of Chinese construction companies expanding overseas [7][24]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the potential for large-scale reconstruction in Ukraine if the conflict ends, with significant investment needs in housing (16% of total needs) and infrastructure (32.4% of total needs) [2][18]. - The demand for basic construction materials like cement and steel is expected to rise significantly due to reconstruction efforts [18][19]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include: - China National Materials (中材国际) with a PE of 7.2X and a dividend yield of 5.5% - China Steel International (中钢国际) with a PE of 9.6X and a dividend yield of 5.3% - Northern International (北方国际) with a PE of 11X - China Chemical Engineering (中国化学) with a PE of 6.3X and a PB of 0.70X - Jianghe Group (江河集团) with a PE of 12X and a dividend yield of 6.5% - Precision Steel Structure (精工钢构) with a PE of 10X and a dividend yield of 6.9% [8][24][26]. Market Trends - The report notes that overseas construction demand remains robust, driven by urbanization and industrialization in emerging markets, such as Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 and various infrastructure initiatives in Southeast Asia [7][22][23]. - The report cites that 68% of A-share listed companies have disclosed overseas business income, indicating a growing trend of Chinese companies expanding internationally [7][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Insights - The construction materials industry continues to face pressure on profitability, with operating cash flow showing improvement [1] - The overall revenue of the sample companies in the infrastructure real estate chain decreased by 4.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous quarters [27] - The report highlights that leading companies are seeking external growth and enhancing market share despite the challenging environment [24] Summary by Sections Profit and Loss Analysis - The revenue decline for the construction materials sector has slowed, with Q3 2025 revenues for construction and materials down 4.6% and 3.4% year-on-year, respectively [27] - The revenue growth rates for various sub-sectors in Q3 2025 show significant variation, with design consulting at 38.4% and cement at 53.8% [1][15] - The overall return on equity (ROE) for the sample companies was 6.5%, with the construction and materials sectors at 7.2% and 3.8%, respectively [2][19] - The sales net profit margin for the construction materials sector was 5.5%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.3 percentage points [3][22] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - The net cash flow from operating activities for the sample companies reached 926.9 billion, with the construction sector generating 754.8 billion and the materials sector 172.1 billion [8][5] - The overall asset-liability ratio for the sample companies was 75.2%, with the construction and materials sectors at 77.4% and 48.2%, respectively [8][5] Key Sub-sector Performance - In Q3 2025, the construction materials sector's net profit decreased by 14.4% year-on-year, while the materials sector saw a 10.9% increase [4][31] - The highest net profit growth rates were observed in the decoration and renovation sector at 289.0% and glass fiber at 84.7% [31][4] - The report indicates that the cash flow management has improved, particularly in the infrastructure and international engineering sub-sectors [8][5]

Group 1 - Xinpeng Co., Ltd. provided a guarantee of 50 million yuan for its wholly-owned subsidiary, increasing the total guarantee amount to 1.258 billion yuan, which is 115.47% of the latest audited net assets [1] - Yonggui Electric's subsidiary signed a contract worth 15.8652 million yuan with CRRC Zhuzhou for supplying components for the Wuhan rail transit project [1] - Huada Technology secured project designations from multiple domestic automakers and battery companies, with a total expected sales amount of 2.9 billion yuan, over 80% of which is related to new energy projects [2] Group 2 - China National Machinery International signed a contract for a 5.71 billion yuan hospital construction project in Iraq, which represents 4.68% of the company's expected revenue for 2024 [3] - Fangzhi Technology plans to acquire 100% of Zhixiang Technology for 116 million yuan, focusing on AI-driven smart learning and sports solutions [4] - Demingli is in the early stages of planning a refinancing initiative, with no specific details on the amount or method yet [5] Group 3 - Hesheng Silicon Industry announced a shareholder's plan to reduce holdings by up to 2.29%, equating to 27.0706 million shares [7] - ST Lanhua's subsidiary plans to invest up to 65 million yuan in a juice beverage project in Chongqing [8] - Ruizhi Pharmaceutical developed an automated synthesis system for antibody-drug conjugates and nucleoside monomers in collaboration with East China Normal University [9] Group 4 - Lianying Laser's controlling shareholder intends to reduce holdings by up to 3 million shares, representing 0.88% of the total share capital [10] - Songyuan Safety's controlling shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 1% of the total share capital [12] - ST Kaixin's actual controller and major shareholders plan to transfer 5% of the company's shares at a price of 27.85 yuan per share [13] Group 5 - Bojun Technology plans to invest approximately 1 billion yuan in a new automotive parts production base, aiming for an annual capacity of 24 million sets [13] - Litong Electronics' controlling shareholder committed to not reducing holdings for 24 months, while other shareholders plan to reduce a total of 3.03% of shares [14] - Yaoyigou's actual controller intends to transfer 5.23% of shares to a company director at a price of 24 yuan per share [15] Group 6 - Baiwei Storage submitted H-share listing application materials to the China Securities Regulatory Commission [18] - Jinshi Yaya obtained a drug registration certificate for glucosamine sulfate capsules, which are suitable for osteoarthritis treatment [19] - Shangtai Technology plans to invest approximately 4.07 billion yuan in a lithium-ion battery anode material project [19] Group 7 - Xinlitai's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 800,000 shares, representing 0.07% of the total share capital [20] - Yunnan Baiyao elected Zhang Wenxue as the chairman of the board for a three-year term [21] - Huading Co., Ltd. announced that two shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3% of the total share capital [23] Group 8 - Jiahua Technology's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 0.65% of the total share capital [25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction industry is "Positive" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The construction industry has experienced a decline in revenue and performance, but the rate of decline has narrowed compared to the previous year. The overall profitability remains relatively stable, with only a slight decrease compared to the same period last year [6][19]. - The industry is facing challenges due to sluggish demand, but companies are adopting more conservative approaches to new orders, focusing on the payment capabilities of owners and reducing capital advances [6][19]. - The first three quarters of 2025 saw a decrease in operating cash outflow, and while the asset-liability ratio and interest-bearing debt ratio increased compared to the beginning of the year, they showed a slight decrease on a quarter-on-quarter basis [6][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of October 31, 2025, the construction industry reported a total revenue of 58,403.89 billion, a decrease of 5.14% year-on-year, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.09 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,288.62 billion, down 8.41%, with a narrowing decline of 2.98 percentage points [21][19]. Profitability - The overall gross margin for the industry decreased to 10.0%, down 0.05 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 2.21%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points [28][31]. Cash Flow - The net cash outflow from operations for the first three quarters of 2025 was 4,082.54 billion, a reduction of 719.02 billion year-on-year. The cash collection ratio increased by 3.45 percentage points to 99.24%, while the cash payment ratio increased by 3.07 percentage points to 106.04% [38][39]. Subsector Performance - Most subsectors experienced a decline in revenue, with the international engineering sector seeing a drop of 25.4%, and the decoration sector down by 22.32%. However, the chemical engineering sector reported a revenue increase of over 10% [50][53]. - The gross margin for seven subsectors increased year-on-year, with the international engineering sector achieving a gross margin of 15.81%, an increase of 2.88 percentage points [54][55].

Core Viewpoint - China National Materials International Engineering Co., Ltd. (中材国际) has shown a positive stock performance and steady financial growth, indicating potential investment opportunities in the engineering and construction sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 32.998 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.99% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.074 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.68% year-on-year [2]. - The stock price has increased by 7.42% year-to-date, with a 1.89% rise over the last five trading days [1]. Stock Market Activity - On November 7, the stock price rose by 2.11%, reaching 9.70 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 113 million yuan [1]. - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 25.432 billion yuan [1]. - The net inflow of main funds was 7.0377 million yuan, with significant buying activity from large orders [1]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 63,000, up by 8.95% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 8.22% to 35,748 shares [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 7.498 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.037 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3]. Business Segments - The main business revenue composition includes: Engineering Technical Services (58.02%), Production Operation Services (28.77%), High-end Equipment Manufacturing (10.65%), and Other Services (5.69%) [2]. - The company operates in various sectors, including engineering consulting, equipment manufacturing, and digital intelligent services [2].