建筑需求

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宏观经济专题:建筑需求同比下行速度放缓
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-19 01:47
Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain at seasonal low levels, with asphalt plant operating rates at 32.9%, down 12.9% year-on-year, and cement dispatch rates at 40.1%, down 4.4% year-on-year[14] - Industrial production shows a mixed picture, with PX operating rates at 82.4%, down 7.7% year-on-year, while automotive steel tire operating rates have decreased[24] - Some construction demand has turned positive year-on-year, with rebar apparent demand showing a positive change, primarily due to a low base in 2024[29] Prices - International commodity prices are fluctuating, with crude oil prices declining and gold prices showing a slight increase[39] - Domestic industrial prices are generally weak, with the Nanhua Composite Index declining, while coal prices have continued to rise[40] - Agricultural product prices have shown an upward trend, while pork prices have been declining[56] Real Estate - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, with a 18% decrease in average transaction area in 30 major cities compared to the previous two weeks, and a year-on-year decline of 29% compared to 2023[58] - Second-hand housing transactions are also weak, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year changes of -8%, +4%, and +2% respectively[62] Exports - Exports from August 1 to 17 are estimated to have increased by approximately 7% to 9% year-on-year, with models indicating a 7% increase and container ship loading data suggesting a 9% increase[65] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with the R007 at 1.45% and DR007 at 1.51% as of August 1[71] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 21,022 billion yuan through reverse repos in recent weeks[72] Risk Warning - There are risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy strength[76]